Those of you who were subscribers last season probably recall that I'm no Tommy Maddox apologist. I took plenty of heat on our message boards for calling into question Maddox' chances last year, particularly because he seemed to be one of the consensus picks for a mid round QB who had a very good chance to finish the year as a top 10 signal caller, and I just simply saw no evidence of that in either his talent, his career history, or his situation.

That said, you may be surprised to hear that I'm fairly constructive on Tommy Maddox for 2004. And, much like last year, it all comes down to his draft position. As a potential QB1 last year, he was way overvalued. But this year, Maddox is the 26th QB off the board in 12-team mock drafts according to Antsports; which means he's being considered nothing more than a QB3. At that price, I think Maddox offers solid value because it wouldn't take much at all to push him into the top 20; which makes him a cheap bye week fill in/injury replacement for your starter.

Let's look at the factors which go into evaluating Maddox' opportunity this year:

1. The offensive line - It's tough to blame Maddox completely for the way the Steelers offense performed in 2003. The offensive line succumbed to major injuries including the loss of Marvel Smith for most of the season and injury hampered performances by Kendall Simmons and Jeff Hartings. This year, the line appears healthy and ready to show that last season was a fluke. And with OL coach Russ Grimm being elevated to assistant head coach; it stands to reason that the team has every confidence in the coaching staff's ability to get the line back on track.



2. The running game - The Steelers may have found a passing attack under Mike Mularkey (who departed this offseason to become the Bills head coach) but they also lost their ability to run the ball. Under Bill Cowher, the Steelers were at their best when they were playing smash mouth football. I believe that with the departure of Mike Mularkey, and the promotion of Ken Whisenhunt to offensive coordinator, the team will put a renewed emphasis on the running attack. Add to that the addition of Duce Staley and I think the Steelers will get back to the 50%/50% run/pass ratio that was their hallmark for years. From a fantasy perspective, this limits the upside of Pittsburgh's passing attack, but it may ultimately prove beneficial for Maddox in that he is prone to forcing passes under pressure. With a powerful running game reestablished, Maddox should have more opportunities to find receivers in single coverage; thus reducing on the turnovers that plagued him last year.



3. The receiving corps - Hines Ward is one of the best receivers in the NFL, while Plaxico Burress is equally talented, but much less focused on harnessing said talent. Burress was a monster two years ago, and tailed off last season (and seemed to give up as the year went on). He's not been promised his starting job this year after failing to show for mandatory minicamps; but for this team to succeed (and for Maddox to become a viable fantasy QB2), Burress has to regain the form he showed two seasons ago when he joined Ward among the 10 best fantasy receivers.

Bottom Line - Limiting the 3rd and Longs

The bottom line is that Tommy Maddox can be successful (i.e., a winning NFL quarterback) if he's put in the right situation. Asking him to win games on his own is a recipe for disaster. If the Steelers offensive line stays intact this year, and the running game gets on track as I suspect, Maddox will be asked to convert 3rd and 4s instead of the 3rd and longs that plagued him a year ago.

Specifically, Tommy Maddox attempted 50 passing attempts on 3rd and 4th downs of 10 yards or greater (i.e., 3rd and 4th and long). That ranked 4th among NFL quarterbacks, but Maddox had the worst completion percentage and the least amount of 1st downs out of the bunch:

• Quincy Carter - 30 for 56 (54%) with 11 first downs
• Joey Harrington - 33 for 56 (59%) with 20 first downs
• Tom Brady - 31 for 55 (56%) with 14 first downs
• Tommy Maddox - 23 for 50 (46%) with 10 first downs
• Drew Bledsoe - 31 for 50 (62%) with 14 first downs

You'll note that of all the QBs who faced a ton of 3rd and 4th and long situations…Maddox completed the fewest number of passes and converted the fewest first downs. For he, and his team to be successful, the Steelers must keep him out of those situations. A solid running game and a more stable offensive line are exactly what the doctor ordered.

Positives

• With a new contract extension, the team appears prepared to go with Maddox for at least 2004 while it grooms Big Ben Roethlisberger for the future



• The offensive line should be better than the unit which failed to keep the pressure from Maddox or open running lanes a year ago



• Plaxico Burress is playing for a contract (and so is Ward in a sense, he wants a lucrative extension)

Negatives

• With Mularkey gone, and Duce Staley on board, expect the team to refocus on its power running attack of years past



• Burress continued to disappoint coaches by sitting out during minicamps, is he focused enough to play like he did in 2002?



• Maddox is prone to bad decisions when under pressure, how tolerant will the coaching staff be if Maddox throws a ton of INTs early?

Final Thoughts

Tommy Maddox is, at best, a middling NFL quarterback. If I were starting a franchise and had to choose just one NFL starting QB from last season, Maddox would probably rank right near the bottom. He's too old, his career marked with too many failed chances, and his physical skills too ordinary to warrant consideration as the cornerstone of an NFL offense. However, whereas last season too many fantasy football players expected to get blood from a stone, this year he's little more than a fantasy afterthought; which is probably a mistake when you consider the likelihood of an improved line, running game, and a talented receiving corps. I wouldn't roster Maddox as my QB2, but I wouldn't hesitate to add him as my QB3 in the 2nd half of drafts this year with the knowledge that he could end up as a solid fantasy QB2 if things fall into place.

Colin Dowling's Thoughts:

Dear Plaxico Burress,

I write this note to you today to make a plea, for myself, for Steelers fans, for Tommy Maddox and Ben Roethlisberger, and for fantasy footballers everywhere….Please quit sandbagging and catch the friggin' ball. Thanks.

Sincerely,

Colin Dowling AKA HERD

And that, my friends, is the Tommy Maddox/Ben Roethlisberger Spotlight in a nutshell. Basically,

• Plaxico 2002 = Quarterback Success
• Plaxico 2003 = Quarterback Wasteland

I wholeheartedly believe that Tommy Maddox is a functional QB2, capable of having QB1 Sundays from time to time. However, he's not worth the fabric in his jersey if Burress keeps lolli-gagging all over the field, dropping balls, getting arm-tackled, and generally disappointing. You see, the great fantasy quarterbacks usually have three capable pass-catchers out there. Why are having three options so important? In general, because when the other team's defensive-backs have more than two quality receivers to keep an eye on, they spend less time blitzing and less time playing centerfield looking for interceptions.

This year, it's easy to assume that Hines Ward is going to do his part. I feel pretty comfortable saying that Duce Staley is going to catch enough passes to do his part. Randle-El and the rest of the receivers will certainly catch some balls, but the difference between facing an aggressive pass-defense and a reactive pass-defense is most often, in my opinion, going to come down to how worried the other team is about Burress making them pay for their mistakes. Last year, he dropped 5 balls and his YPC dropped by 3.7 yards from 2002. He caught a mere 48% of his targets (Ward was at 61%). I'll be blunt: If Plaxico Burress catches in the ballpark of 48% of his targets this year and drops 5 balls, all the pass-protection and inventive play-calls in the world aren't going to make Tommy Maddox a useful QB.

As for Maddox himself, he's got decent size and an adequate arm. He's a fiery competitor and he knows the playbook well. Maddox has long succeeded in being a quarterback that tosses the ball to a variety of targets, keeping the defense relatively honest (provided those targets catch the ball). Much to the surprise of many, Maddox is actually fairly good at finding the opponent's weak-link and exploiting it, and he completes a relatively high percentage of his passes (59% in the last 2 years). In 2002, he tossed it at 7.52 yards per attempt, and managed to offer decent production for a backup QB in many leagues. Last year, Cowher and company opened the door a little more and let him throw it more - a lot more. As a result, his YPA fell be close to a yard and his TD/INT ratio tightened up. He finished as QB23 after starting - and often struggling - for the entire season. Maddox isn't very mobile, so he's going to need to have an efficient campaign to be even a marginal fantasy play.

His backup, Ben Roethlisberger, has a cannon for an arm and became a topnotch prospect as a result of completing a fantastic number of passes - 69.1% as a junior. It helped that his college offensive line was one of the best in football, but I digress. Big Ben will be the Steelers starter sooner or later, likely as soon as the team falls out of playoff contention (or 2005 if they make the playoffs this year with Maddox under center). His long-term prospects are going to depend greatly on how well the offensive line can protect him. Roethlisberger has the arm to make all the throws to all parts of the field. He also has the mental-makeup to avoid mistakes once he understands the offense and the ability to make things happen when the play breaks down and its time to improvise. However, he is best described as a strong-armed pocket passer - he's not going to be doing much running any time soon. For this year, I'd suggest his fantasy value is basically nil, even if he starts.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

Steelers4Life:
"Way too many people look at Tommy Maddox's season in 2003 and say, "See, he sucks!" without looking at the surrounding circumstances. In an awful year, he managed 3400 yards and 18 TDs.

He had no running game whatsoever. Why? Because the running backs on the roster sucked and because the offensive line was decimated with injuries to the point that they couldn't pass block or run block at all."

tommyGunz:
"By all accounts, 2003 was a struggle and Maddox didn't perform up to expectations. If the Steelers rebound (a healthy OL is the key), Maddox should improve statistically across the board. Using his 2003 numbers as a baseline, Maddox could creep up the board and be the best QB2 in fantasy football, and contend for late QB1 status."

jurb26:
"Basically, I see Maddox's 1st season playing in Pitt as an anomaly. I don't think he his good enough to put up those good of numbers over time and think the Steelers staff realizes this. He does however have nice weapons the best of which is Ward who is one of the best WRs in the game right now. I think we will see a new commitment to the run next year, at least I hope so."

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
"Going into last year, I thought if Tommy Maddox stayed healthy, he'd have a great year. I was disappointed. He stayed healthy, but the team just didn't produce on offense. I think his throws are a bit too lofty and when things go bad, they stay bad. He doesn't seem to have the ability to pull himself and his teammates from out of the dumps."

Editor's Note: This spotlight was submitted before the season-ending ACL injury to starting right guard Kendall Simmons.

Tommy Maddox Projections

Ben Roethlisberger Projections