Jason Wood's Thoughts

You don't need me to tell you that Tony Gonzalez is the premier option at tight end this year, and the main cog in a surprisingly potent Kansas City Chiefs passing attack. It's clear that, if healthy, Gonzo should again be positioned to top the fantasy rankings at his position and reward fantasy owners willing to spend a 3rd round pick on him (his average draft position is 3.08 according to Antsports).

Although Gonzalez is just 28 years old, it's already time to start placing him among the very best to ever play the position. It was Gonzalez' breakout offensive production which brought about the renaissance of the position we've seen recently with the likes of Shockey, Winslow Jr, Crumpler, Heap, McMichael. Gonzalez has finished 1st or 2nd among fantasy TEs for five straight seasons. He's accomplished this under three different head coaches, two different offensive systems, and with two different quarterbacks throwing him the ball.

Let's compare Gonzalez' offensive numbers with those TEs already in the Hall of Fame:

• Dave Casper - 378 receptions for 5216 yards and 52 touchdowns
• Mike Ditka - 427 receptions for 5812 yards and 43 touchdowns
• John Mackey - 331 receptions for 5236 yards and 38 touchdowns
• Ozzie Newsome - 662 receptions for 7980 yards and 47 touchdowns
• Jackie Smith - 480 receptions for 7918 yards and 40 touchdowns
• Kellen Winslow - 541 receptions for 6741 yards and 45 touchdowns
• Tony Gonzalez - 468 receptions for 5,647 yards and 47 touchdowns

He's already well on his way to being worthy of the Hall of Fame; and probably has another five-plus healthy seasons left in him, at least.

OK, so what does that have to do with fantasy football? Not much, but again, as someone who writes well over 100 player analyses I figured I would take the opportunity to illustrate how remarkable Gonzalez' career has been to date since you know full well that he's the top fantasy option and someone you'll have to use a 3rd rounder on to roster most likely.

One Quick Note: Stress Fracture Alert

I would be remiss to not mention that Tony Gonzalez is only participating in portions of training camp as he deals with lingering pain from a stress fracture in his foot. While he is practicing and maintains he'll be ready for opening day, you should monitor the situation closely before your draft to make sure you're not committing a high draft choice to someone who may miss time.

Positives

• Tony Gonzalez is among the most talented tight ends to ever play the game
• The Chiefs offense should again rank among the league's best; and Gonzalez is the primary receiving option
• The offensive line and RB Priest Holmes are so talented that Gonzalez isn't forced to stay back and block too often, unlike many other talented TEs

Negatives

• Gonzalez is suffering from a lingering stress fracture that he self admittedly "should have had surgery on this offseason"
• Priest Holmes is, and will remain, the most targeted player in the red zone and will consume the lion's share of touchdown opportunities
• Drafting Gonzalez early (2nd/3rd round) may force you to scramble at the all important RB position

Final Thoughts

If you're a proponent of Value Based Drafting, Tony Gonzalez should be on your short list of "must have" players in leagues that require you to start a tight end. In the last five seasons, Tony Gonzalez' VBD in 12-team leagues using Footballguys scoring has been:

• 2003 - 87 (13th best at any position)
• 2002 - 56 (27th)
• 2001 - 55 (23rd)
• 2000 - 114 (8th)
• 1999 - 92 (10th)

In other words, Tony Gonzalez has, on a VBD basis, been among the best dozen or two players for five years running. With that recognition, spending a 3rd round pick on him in 12-team leagues is more than justified; you're still getting "value." So the only reason not to draft Gonzalez is more ethereal. For some reason, even though consider myself a VBD purist, I rarely look at Gonzalez in the 3rd round even though the "value" says I should. And that's more a function of knowing myself well enough to understand that drafting a TE that high, regardless of the value, impacts the ebb and flow of the remainder of my draft to the point where I feel uncomfortable. Again, there's no hard and fast empirical data to justify this, but I know that many others feel the same way.

So, if you've got the time, do some mock drafts and get comfortable with what your roster will look like if you roster Gonzalez in the 2nd or 3rd round. If you can see enough scenarios where you'll still come away with solid RB depth, it's a bet that should (and will) pay off.

Chase Stuart's Thoughts

Here's something interesting about Tony Gonzalez:

• 2003: 9.5 FP/G
• 2002: 7.5 FP/G
• 2001: 8.2 FP/G
• 2000: 11.6 FP/G
• 1999: 10.1 FP/G

The last five years, his points per game have hit just about every number. He's been consistent in one area-he's been a top-two tight end each of those years. At just twenty-eight years old, Gonzalez has quite a few years left of stardom. Coming off five straight Pro Bowl appearances, and returning to essentially the same offense, Gonzalez is in for another big year.

Jeremy Shockey has durability issues, and no longer is being drafted ahead of "Gonzo". Todd Heap has touchdown and quarterback problems, and it's hard to make a case for him being the top tight end. For Gonzalez, the question isn't whether he's the best TE in fantasy football, but rather by how much?

Gonzalez scored more than all but fifteen wide receivers in 2003. For starters, I would think we all realize that a TE scoring 150 fantasy points is more valuable than a WR doing that. If not, you should go read Joe's article on Value Based Drafting. The question becomes after how many receivers get drafted should you take Gonzalez? Depending on what you think of players like Santana Moss, Steve Smith and Laveranues Coles, Gonzalez should go right before or after them.

Having the top tight end in your league is a big advantage. Every week you start him, you give yourself a good chance to win. He'll score 100 more fantasy points than some team's starting TE will get all year. He should certainly be the first tight end grabbed in every league, and I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the fourth round.

Positives

• Excellent hands, tremendous athleticism and great experience are what make Gonzalez the premier tight end in the league
• The lack of a star receiver on the Chiefs helps to ensure that a healthy Gonzalez will be catching upwards of 800 yards this year
• An excellent red zone threat, he's averaged nine touchdowns per season the last five years

Negatives

• Priest Holmes is the first option just about every time Kansas City reaches the five yard line
• If Trent Green were to get hurt, there's no proven backup capable of getting Gonzalez the ball

Final Thoughts

There's just not much to dislike about Tony Gonzalez. He's been relatively injury-free so far, and there's no questioning his production. The only possible downside to grabbing Gonzalez that I see is this: If you grab him, you probably can't grab a stud QB as well. To spent two of your first four picks on non-RBs and WRs will put you behind the 8-ball in most leagues. Keep that in mind if you're dead-set on grabbing a Mike Vick or Daunte Culpepper. You're going to be hurting at RB or WR if you do that. Otherwise, if you can get Gonzalez in the fourth you've already put yourself in a fine position to dominate your draft.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

RamTough:
"Gonzo is golden! Last year there was the debate about Gonzo vs. Shockey; no longer. With Shockey's injury and Heap's QB situation, Gonzo is hands down the best TE this year. You could argue that the gap is wider at TE between 1-2 than at any other position (Culpepper/Manning, Holmes/LT, Moss/Harrison) in the draft."

Chaz:
"With Gonzo on your team, you have an advantage over every league member at the TE position. In a 12 team league, the advantage over the bottom half is huge. Also, he has the legitimate potential to have at least one "blow up" game of 80-100 yards and 2 TDs. Few TEs have that possibility. That can win a week for you."

fightingillini:
"Gonzalez is money in the bank....period. The best TE in the game. He is the first option in the passing game......His TD production would be even scarier if the Chiefs didn't give the ball to Priest EVERY time they are near the goal line."

loser:
"He's got the luxury of the best offensive coordinator in the game, and is the number one option when Trent Green throws. The top three receivers for K.C. averaged 672 yards and 3 TDs last season. With no upgrade at the position, Gonzalez should continue to thrive."

CalBear:
"A strong, athletic, guy with great hands who's also great blocker (just watch who's sealing the line on all those Priest Holmes TD jaunts): you couldn't ask for a better archetype at TE.

And he held Tim Thomas to 1 point in the NCAA tournament, too. Tony's my man!"

Tony Gonzalez Projections