Spotlight - WR Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams
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Posted 9/2 by Jason Wood and Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Jason Wood's Thoughts
Torry Holt has always been a yardage machine but could never ascend into the
rarefied air of "top fantasy receiver" because of limited touchdown
production. From 2000-2002, Holt averaged 85 receptions for 1,433 yards but
only 5.7 touchdowns. As a result, Holt's fantasy rankings were 7th, 8th and
15th respectively.
Last year, on a 3-year downtrend in receiving yards and coming off a 4-TD season
with Kurt Warner questionable, some people wrote off Holt as being too risky
to justify a 3rd or 4th round selection. Well, for those of us who took the
risk, we were rewarded with a season for the ages:
- 117 receptions (1st in the NFL)
- 1,696 yards (1st in the NFL)
- 12 touchdowns (2nd in the NFL)
- 242 fantasy points (2nd among WRs)
When Torry Holt came into the league, he was a speedy receiver with good hands,
who combated a skinny frame and a tendency to round off his routes. But thanks
to exemplary coaching and being teamed up with Isaac Bruce, Holt learned that
he had to continue to improve all aspects of his game to ascend into the league's
elite. At this point in his career, Holt is arguably the 2nd most dangerous
receiver in the NFL (behind Randy Moss). Although Marvin Harrison may have something
to say about that, recognize that Holt is now 195 lbs. and has become a disciplined
route runner and voracious proponent of film study. Combine that with Mike Martz'
downfield passing attack and you've got prolific production year in, year out.
Beware of the double digit touchdowns
As I mentioned already, last year was somewhat of an anomaly for Holt in that
he scored 12 touchdowns, more than doubling his annualized output prior to last
season. So what changed between last year and the prior seasons?
- Marshall Faulk - Nine of Holt's 12 touchdowns came in the first eight
games of the season. It's no coincidence that Marshall Faulk, long the Rams
go-to option in the red zone, was sidelined for the majority of those games.
To put a finer point on this:
- Holt's Fantasy PPG in Games w/ Faulk - 11.5 points per game
- Holt's Fantasy PPG in Games w/o Faulk - 23.1 points per game
- Marc Bulger - Bulger played the majority of the season for the Rams,
displacing Kurt Warner. Bulger targeted Holt more often than Warner did, eschewing
some of the other targets in favor of his go-to receiver. With Bulger firmly
entrenched as the Rams' starter, this is unlikely to change much in 2004 and
beyond.
Net-net, when Faulk's in the lineup, Holt isn't going to see as many red zone
targets (he was most targeted receiver in the red zone last year) and that means
his normalized rate of TD production is probably closer to 7 or 8 going forward.
But on a positive note, he should be in line for 90+ receptions with Marc Bulger
targeting him more frequently than Kurt Warner did on a relative basis.
Positives
- Holt is the lead receiver on one of the most consistently productive passing
teams in the NFL
- Marc Bulger targeted Holt more frequently than Kurt Warner did, which should
result in 90+ receptions barring injury
- He should be at or near the top of the league in yardage, and has matured
into a reliable 8-10 touchdown performer, in my view
Negatives
- Holt's fantasy production was cut in half when Marshall Faulk was on the
field; if Faulk stays healthy in 2004, Holt again becomes a solid WR1, but
not in the Moss/Harrison camp
- The Rams have question marks on the offensive line; which could derail
the vaunted St. Louis offense if severe enough
Final Thoughts
Torry Holt is unlikely to catch 12 touchdowns again in 2004; but he has a strong
chance of catching 90+ passes and approaching 1,400 yards receiving. When Faulk
was in the lineup last year, Holt averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game
over
a 16-game season that equates to 184 fantasy points. Not the kind of numbers
to give Randy Moss a run for his money, but firmly in the running for top 5
at his position. I wouldn't take Holt in the 2nd round of 10 and 12-team leagues;
that's a bit of a reach, but in the mid to late 3rd or later; if he's there
and you're happy with your RB situation already, Holt should again be considered
one of the better WR1s to roster.
Chase Stuart's Thoughts
Torry Holt has become one of the top receivers in the NFL. With great speed,
good size and excellent hands, Holt can appear unstoppable at times. He has
averaged 1,499 yards receiving the past four seasons, and has never missed a
game in his pro career. Twice in his five year career, Holt has led the NFL
in receiving yards. Holt nearly earned himself a triple crown for WRs in 2003:
He led the NFL in receptions, led the NFL in receiving yards, and finished second
in touchdowns. Holt seems like a mortal lock for another 1500 yard season, so
there's absolutely nothing to debate about there. In fact, there's just one
thing that's very interesting with Holt-his touchdowns.
Last year, Torry Holt caught over half of the Rams passing touchdowns. If you
think that sounds like a lot, you're right. Try this on for size: he had never
even grabbed twenty percent of them before 2003.
Year
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Holt's TDs as a % of Rams Pass
TDs
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1999
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14.3
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2000
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16.2
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2001
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18.9
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2002
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16.7
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2003
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52.2
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I tend to think that 2003 was more likely a fluke than a sign of the changing
times. However, a player with 1500 yards and a touchdown every other game is
still very, very valuable.
Positives
- Plays on a great offense-still. This Rams team won't remind anyone of their
1999 older brothers, but they're still very good. Bulger, Faulk and Holt excel
in the Martz system, and the Rams offense will continue to dominate
- Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk help keep defenses honest, so Holt doesn't
have to deal with too many double and triple teams
- Holt is one of the most polished and athletic receivers in the league.
He can do it all, and can explode at any time. Both in 2000 and 2003, Holt
passed the 160 yard make in three different games
- Consistent and durable, there are very few knocks on Holt as a player
Negatives
- There's just one-the touchdowns. A healthy Marshall Faulk seems to get most
of the Rams scores, not Torry Holt. However, keep some perspective here: This
negative drops him from the number one fantasy receiver, to the number three
or four at the worst
Final Thoughts
Holt averaged 9 receptions, 147 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game when Faulk
was out of the lineup last year. In the other eleven games, Holt's numbers were
"just" 6.5 receptions, 87.4 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Those
prorate to the following sixteen game seasons:
Without Faulk: 144 receptions, 2,352 yards, 16.3 yards per reception and
22 TDs
With Faulk: 105 receptions, 1,398 yards, 13.3 yards per reception and 7 TDs
Obviously that's a huge, huge difference. Interestingly enough, Holt didn't
explode with Faulk out of the lineup in either 2001 or 2002. I don't think Holt
would play nearly that well with Faulk injured in 2003, but I do think a healthy
Faulk hurts Holt's stats. However, Holt fans probably won't have to worry about
a healthy Faulk for very long.
Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary
in there), click here.
Repressed Dennis:
"As long as Mike Martz is calling the plays in St. Louis, there will
be a LOT of passing yards to go around. It was interesting to see that Bulger
tended to lock onto his starting wide receivers a lot more, especially in the
red zone than Warner used to - the Rams before last year used to get a lot of
catches, yards, and TDs out of guys like Ricky Proehl and Az Hakim. Will Bulger
spread it around more this year as he gets more comfortable in the offense,
or will Holt continue to see additional looks and red zone action?"
KKrew:
"The knock on Holt prior to last season was that he couldn't find the
end zone enough. Well, Torry dispelled that myth, posting a career high of 12
TDs. The 12 doubled his previous career average of 6 per year. I'm thinking
he'll be closer to the 12 than the 6 in 2004."
Winston Smith:
"Having gotten somewhat burned by drafting Holt in round 2 in 2002,
I was bearish on him last year, and passed on him in the third. Big mistake.
With Harrison getting a little older and with Wayne on the other side, I think
Holt now becomes the #2 WR in fantasy football."
Just Win Baby:
"It seems to me that the defense would have keyed more on Holt with
Faulk out, yet he made more plays. I assume this was at least in part due to
different play calling by Martz while Faulk was out.
Frankly, I'm not sure what to make of this. Projecting out the games with
Faulk results in 105/1393/7. That would appear to be Holt's downside."
Torry Holt Projections
Source |
Rec
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Yards
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TDs
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FntPts
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Jason Wood |
99
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1385
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8
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187
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Chase Stuart |
115
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1640
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8
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209
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Message Board Consensus |
94
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1370
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8
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185
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