Jason Wood's Thoughts

"We're gettin' the band back together!" - Jake Blues

That's what it must feel like at Camp Parcells this season, as Bill reunites with Keyshawn Johnson and Vinny Testaverde in an encore of the New York Jets team that improbably went to the AFC Championship game in 1998. Now if only he could have swung a trade for Curtis Martin instead of bringing in Eddie George, there might be something to get excited about.

As compelling as story as their reunion may be for the press corps, it shouldn't incite the same type of interest from fantasy football owners, in my view. Last time I checked, it's been six years since that team made its deep playoff run and Father Time hasn't stopped ticking along.

Vinny Testaverde is 40 years old - Lest we forget that Vinny isn't exactly a spring chicken, let's remember that in the six years since Testaverde had his best overall season (3,256 yards passing, 29 TDs, 7 INTs) he's played sparingly at times and when given the opportunity to start, has looked a shadow of his former self. In the past five years, Vinny has compiled the following stats:

• 775 completions


• 1,327 attempts


• 58% completion percentage


• 8,464 yards


• 6.38 yards per attempt


• 47 TDs


• 45 INTs

Adjusted for a 16-game schedule these metrics project to:

• 276 completions


• 471 attempts


• 3,010 passing yards


• 17 TDs


• 16 INTs

Not bad, but not inspiring in the least from a fantasy perspective. So even though Vinny is the likely opening day starter in Dallas (now that Quincy Carter has been sent packing), is there any reason to expect serviceable fantasy production? I don't see it happening.

The offensive line in Dallas is a work in progress, if Jacob Rogers can't step in for Torrin Tucker and/or if Larry Allen isn't back to his Pro Bowl form, this line will have trouble protecting the quarterback. That's not a good sign for any signal caller but it's particularly troublesome for Testaverde. Vinny has become stone-footed in the pocket in recent years and defensive linemen will be pinning back their ears at a chance to hammer the immobile target. At Vinny's age, recovery from hits isn't as easy as it used to be, and you can be certain Testaverde is going to be hit.

I don't think Bill Parcells wants to play Drew Henson this year; but I'm not sure he will have a choice in the matter. I believe the Cowboys thought they had a solid strong armed veteran in Testaverde who could back up Carter in the event of injury or abominable play; I don't think they viewed him as the answer for 16 games. Even if I'm wrong, one can't expect Vinny to light up the scoreboard this year given the Cowboys schedule and the weapons at his disposal. Not only has Vinny not come close to matching his 1998 numbers in the last five years, Keyshawn Johnson has never matched his 1998 production, and Eddie George is a shadow of his Pro Bowl self. Some may view the Cowboys offense as "experienced", I see them as "old."

Positives

• Barring another veteran addition, Testaverde is the de facto starter in Dallas with the release of Quincy Carter



• Testaverde had his career year playing for Parcells and throwing passes to Keyshawn Johnson, can they recapture the magic?



• Vinny keeps himself in great shape, knows the offense, and has enough arm to make any throw

Negatives

• Testaverde is like a statue in the pocket and many observers feel he's no longer confident in throwing the deep ball; his trademark in years past



• It's been a long time since he, Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn or Eddie George were in their primes



• The offensive line remains a question mark, and the team faces a punishing schedule at first blush

Final Thoughts

Vinny playing for Parcells again makes for a good story; but it makes for fantasy disaster in Dallas. Don't make the mistake of thinking this 40-year old is going to somehow recapture the magic six years after his career performance. In 10 and 12-team leagues, don't consider drafting Vinny until the very last rounds as a QB3. And don't be surprised to see Drew Henson play sooner than later.

Marc Levin's Thoughts:

With last year's starter Quincy Carter unexpectedly gone from the team, HC Bill Parcells will look to nearly 41-year old Vinny Testaverde to manage a Dallas Cowboy offense that is still looking for direction. Testaverde is diametrically opposite to Carter, who was an inventive QB and could stretch out a play with his mobility. Testaverde is experienced and knowledgeable enough to run the offense, but he will have problems if the play breaks down, or if the coverage is exceptional, or if the pass rush crushes the pocket. The Cowboys passing game with Testaverde will be very predictable.

That said, Testaverde would not be the first instance of an elder statesman reviving his career late in life. Steve DeBerg anyone? How about Rich Gannon? Plus, Testaverde is reunited with Parcells, who was his coach with the Jets in 1998 and 1999. Speaking of the '98/'99 Jets, Keyshawn Johnson makes this a three-way reunion. Keyshawn had one of his best receiving years in 1998 with Vinny throwing him the ball. He had 10 TDs (his career high), and 83 catches for 1131 yards in the "Gimme the Damn Ball" years. Can the three of these guys revive the passing magic?

If the offensive line can keep Testaverde standing, they just might. However, that unit played fairly poorly in 2003 and hasn't appeared to improve much if training camp, the first preseason game, and Parcells' attitude are any indication. That means the team may see some of young prospect Drew Henson out of necessity. Henson, a former baseball player, has skills. He is definitely the future of the Cowboys' passing game, but Parcells is legendary for playing his veterans over his young players. Testaverde will probably have to be injured before he is replaced.

The receiving corps around Testaverde is actually pretty good - Johnson combines with Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, tight end Jason Whitten, and pass-catching RB extraordinaire Rickie Anderson (69 catches for almost 500 yards and 4 TDs in '03). The potential is actually there for Testaverde and the Cowboys to have an above average passing game if plays develop quickly and Testaverde gets a modicum of decent protection.

In fantasy terms, Testaverde is a bit of a question mark. I have trouble envisioning him making it the entire year for the reasons described above, but against lesser pass defenses, he might actually put up a few decent games. Be very wary of playing him against any of the defenses on the schedule that have a vicious pass rush - such as Philadelphia (twice) or Baltimore - but, as a spot starter against the right defense he could actually put up some good touchdown and yardage numbers. And, he'll be available very late or on the waiver wire, so he won't cost much.

I actually think he will improve his receivers' numbers more than be a fantasy force himself - I expect Keyshawn to flirt with 70-75 catches again due to Vinny's presence. Testaverde also will read defenses and put the ball in the right place better than Carter did last year. Obviously, he has almost no value in dynasty and keeper leagues. In all, if you are stuck with a QB emergency at some point in the year, Vinny might save your week off of the waiver wire, but he is unlikely to save your season.

Positives

• Experienced QB who is familiar with what Parcells expects



• Decent receiving crew to spread the ball around, and a history of a rapport with Keyshawn Johnson as his number one option



• Should be available on the waiver wire or very late in your redrafts and might fill in for a week or two against the right defenses

Negatives

• Will get you next to nothing in rush numbers and will not be able to do much if the play or the pocket breaks down - expect a lot of sacks and passes thrown away



• At 41 and immobile, how long will he last against the kind of blitzes that teams like Philadelphia and Baltimore will throw at him?



• Could potentially be replaced by Drew Henson near the end of the year

Final Thoughts

Not much else to say about Testaverde's situation. I don't recommend you draft him unless you are in a really big league or you start two QBs - and even then, he should be one of your last options. I would hope to see Testaverde on the waiver wire most of the year as "insurance" in case of a drastic emergency to my QB crew.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.

GrOOvus:
"The whole Cowboy's offense is starting to look pretty scary, and I don't mean that in a good way. Two old receivers who've each lost a step, an old running back who's lost a couple of steps and Vinny sounds like a bad combination to me. If I had a sense that Bryant and Jones were going to see more time I'd have a reason to reconsider - but right now the Cowboys are an afterthought in FF terms for me. If I can get screaming deals on Glenn, Bryant, George or Jones I might take them, but I don't see much FF value coming from this squad."

Imedos:
"I don't think Vinny finishes the year, either due to injury or ineffectiveness. Parcells squeezes the most out of his players, but I think the team overachieved last year and will fall down to Earth."

Jayhawk:
"Parcells better have a magic wand this year or it could be his worst season as a coach. Keyshawn will do alright, good enough as a #3 in most FF leagues, Vinny and Eddie won't last the season, J Jones and Henson might produce at the end of the year."

Vinny Testaverde Projections