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Goose Chase 1

Don't refuse to go on an occasional wild goose chase. That's what wild geese are made for.

                                                                   
- Henry Haskins


Henry Haskins wasn't considering the minutia of fantasy football research when he thought that-but we will! It seems that every year the number of "sharks" increase, and most people know all the statistics from a year ago. Those who stumbled onto Cheatsheets.net and Footballguys.com once found the edge to win their league; now utilizing this website has become simply a necessity to stay competitive. What's going to help you gain that edge over your opponents? Without doubt, you're going to need to think outside the box. You're going to have to look past the numbers, and look at the derivatives; the elements; the fragments that make up the numbers. Remember, last year's numbers themselves mean nothing-. Those pieces form the statistics that are the basis for the consensus opinion.

What can you expect out of Goose Chase? I plan on exploring more aspects of player analysis, with the goal of learning a bit more today than I knew yesterday. Let's take a look at the QUARTERBACKS in fantasy football.

Note: The scoring system in place is the typical Footballguys scoring system. Passing yards are scored one point for every twenty yards (0.05 points per yard), four points per touchdown, and minus one for an interception. Rushing yards are scored one point for ten yards, with six points per touchdown. Unless stated otherwise, I'll be using an average league size of twelve teams.

Team QBs

It's not always easy to see which teams have the best passing attacks. When two QBs split time, neither winds up very high on the final rankings. So let's take a look at all the fantasy points generated by each team's quarterback position, from 2003:

Rank

Team Quarterback

Pts

1

Team Minnesota

389

2

Team Tennessee

356

3

Team San Francisco

338

4

Team Indianapolis

324

5

Team St. Louis

311

6

Team Seattle

310

7

Team Kansas City

309

8

Team New Orleans

304

9

Team Tampa Bay

289

10

Team Cincinnati

281

11

Team Green Bay

277

12

Team New England

275

13

Team Philadelphia

268

14

Team Arizona

267

15

Team San Diego

267

16

Team NY Jets

260

17

Team Denver

253

18

Team Jacksonville

252

19

Team Dallas

250

20

Team Washington

236

21

Team NY Giants

233

22

Team Carolina

232

23

Team Pittsburgh

230

24

Team Miami

227

25

Team Chicago

224

26

Team Cleveland

217

27

Team Houston

215

28

Team Atlanta

208

29

Team Detroit

207

30

Team Buffalo

198

31

Team Oakland

197

32

Team Baltimore

183

What a difference a year makes! Last year, the Falcons QBs edged out the Vikings, 368-367, for tops on the list. Oakland was third. After Mike Vick and Rich Gannon went down, both teams found themselves in the bottom five of the list in 2004. A couple things to note:

  • Mr. Underappreciated: Steve McNair
    • McNair is always underrated this time of year, and he makes for an excellent fantasy QB. He was a stud last year, and having Billy Volek behind him provides nice insurance. I would have no problem passing on Peyton Manning to take Steve McNair and his production a couple of rounds (at least) later.

  • Don't forget about Brad Johnson and that Tampa Bay offense. More on him later on in this article. However, note the number of pass attempts for the Bucs since Johnson came to South Florida:
    • 2001: 592 passes, third highest in the NFL
    • 2002: 567 passes, eleventh highest in the NFL
    • 2003: 592 passes, third highest in the NFL (no typos here)
    • The Bucs pass the ball, and they pass it a lot. They added three weapons on offense since we last saw them: A pass-catching RB (Garner), a speedy receiver (Galloway) and a first round talent at WR (Clayton). They could easily throw it 600 times this year. If Keenan McCardell ever plays again, it will be another big boost for this offense.

  • Daunte Culpepper is almost universally considered the top QB in fantasy circles-and it's a title he rightly deserves. Vikings QBs compiled sixty-five more FPs than Colts signal callers, meaning Daunte still has a big edge over everyone else. How good has he been?
    • 2003: Top fantasy QB
    • 2002: Top fantasy QB
    • 2001: Number two fantasy QB in FP/G
    • 2000: Top fantasy QB

  • Josh McCown may be in for a pretty good year. We all know Dennis Green has been extremely successful with less than stellar QBs, and the Cardinals have three strong options at WR. What interests me is that McCown and Jeff Blake combined to rank as the fourteenth best tandem last year. Factor in the arrival of Green, rookie Larry Fitzgerald and normal maturation, and McCown could be a big time fantasy sleeper. Keep in mind he adds a lot on the ground and will pass a lot, so even if he's not the real deal he'll still put up decent numbers. With the injury to Anquan Boldin, McCown's stock has taken a big hit. However, that means he'll be available later, and should make an excellent QB3 with high upside.

The Charlie Garner rule-or is it the Jerry Rice rule?

Many times, Charlie Garner looks like a receiver playing running back. He averaged seventy-seven receptions per year from 2000-2002, before the injury bug hit everyone in Oakland last year. What I've noticed is that he's had a pretty remarkable affect on his quarterbacks as well. Consider:

  • His last year in San Francisco (2000), Garner hauled in 687 receiving yards. That year, Jeff Garcia threw for 4,278 yards and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. The following year Garcia had "just" 3,538 yards and 7.0 yards per attempt. As a team, the 49ers threw 77 less passes the year after Garner left. To be fair, Jerry Rice also left in the same offseason, but had less than 850 yards receiving each of his last two years with the team.


  • That same year (2000), Rich Gannon completed 60.0% of his passes with the Raiders. Well once Garner (and Rice) switched Bay Area locales that changed quite a bit. Gannon completed 65.8% and 67.6% of his passes the next two seasons. He also saw a huge spike in his attempts, going from 473 without Garner (and Rice), to 549 and then 618!


  • Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia both had their career years with Charlie Garner (and Rice) catching the ball. It's not hard to figure out, as Garner brings two things to the table. First, he's a sure handed player that's very difficult for linebackers to cover. As a result, he's great at getting open and is an excellent safety valve. Secondly, he's not a great runner. So teams take advantage of his receiving skills, and run less and pass more. The results? Very, very promising fantasy numbers for his QBs.


  • The question is who had more of the impact, Rice or Garner? We'll see this year, as Rice stayed in Oakland and Garner moved to Tampa Bay. I have a feeling that the Bucs will throw a lot of passes to Garner, and he's going to make Brad Johnson a fantasy stud. Bucs RBs caught an amazing 139 passes last year. Gruden brought back Garner to improve his offense, by throwing the ball more.

Playoff Time

Jake Delhomme shined in the playoffs, but did he show the biggest improvement of all twelve playoff QBs?

Quarterback
Team
RP/G
PP/G
Diff
PGP
Peyton Manning
Ind
20.1
26.1
6.0
3
Jake Delhomme
Car
14.5
18.2
3.7
4
Tom Brady
NE
17.1
19.8
2.7
3
Anthony Wright
Bal
13.5
14.6
1.1
1
Brett Favre
GB
17.3
18.1
0.8
2
Donovan McNabb
Phi
16.7
17.1
0.4
2
Quincy Carter
Dal
15.6
15.2
-0.4
1
Trent Green
KC
19.1
16.4
-2.7
1
Marc Bulger
StL
19.3
14.7
-4.6
1
Matt Hasselbeck
Sea
19.1
14.3
-4.8
1
Jake Plummer
Den
18.2
12.9
-5.3
1
Steve McNair
Ten
20.6
12.6
-8.0
2

RP/G = Regular season fantasy Points per Game
PP/G = Playoff fantasy Points per Game
Diff = Playoff FP/G - Regular season FP/G
PGP = Number of Playoff Games Played

Delhomme, Manning and Brady all were playoff heroes a year ago. Brady is at his best when the opposition is toughest, and he proved it again in the playoffs. Delhomme was magnificent, averaging 9.67 Yards per Attempt. Manning, as many of us remember, was off the charts. Including the playoffs, he had three games where he threw five or six touchdowns.

On the flip side, McNair certainly was a big disappointment-although he played the two best defenses in the league. Many view Hasselbeck, McNair, Bulger and Green in the same tier-and looking at their playoff performances doesn't seem to separate them much either.

Mike Vick

Obviously, you're not allowed to write an article on QBs without mentioning Mike Vick. Let's take a look at his last two seasons:

In 2002, Vick missed one full game, and missed another half of football combined from the first Tampa Bay and first Carolina games.

In 2003, Vick played in just four full games, and one quarter of another (against the Texans). So how do his numbers match up? Let's prorate the 14.5 game season (his breakout year) and the 4.25 game season of 2003:

  • 2002: 255 completions, 465 attempts, 3,240 passing yards, 18 TDs/9 INTs; 125 carries, 857 yards and 9 scores; 363 FPs


  • 2003: 188 completions, 376 attempts, 2,202 passing yards, 15 TDs/11 INTs; 151 carries, 960 yards, 4 TDs; 278 FPs

Certainly, Vick was a much bigger force in 2002, and all the usual warnings about prorated stats apply here. However, the most interesting thing for me is the number of rushes Vick had last year. Twice in four starts, he had double digit carries. If anything, you would expect the injury would have made him run less last year. We all remember the Sunday Night game against the NFC Champion Falcons, where Vick seemed to will the team to victory. If he runs 150+ times, he's going to have a chance to hit the 1,000 yard mark. You don't need me to tell you that would make him a top two fantasy QB just about every year.

Does Vick still have a ways to go as a passer? Absolutely. He faced some tough Ds last year (Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay) and just didn't look like the Vick we saw in 2002. However, that's what you'd expect from three months of rust.

I know a lot of people are down on Vick now, as he's a bit banged up. He's always going to make you cringe, and you worry that he can last a full season. As a fantasy player though, he's got the kind of potential that makes him worth a high draft pick. I don't buy most of the talk about Vick running less this year-and if healthy, he's going to put up impressive passing numbers as well. I'd advocate drafting Vick, and making sure you've got a reliable backup behind him-someone like Brad Johnson.

Committee Lineups

For those of you that have read my QBBC and DTBC articles, this is probably the last article you'll see from me before the season starts. Just to be super clear:

  • QBBC Article
    For those using my Quarterback-By-Committee suggestion of Jake Plummer, Jake Delhomme and Brad Johnson, I'd advocate starting Plummer at home against the Chiefs this week. Delhomme has looked the best in the preseason, so that's a suitable option for those that are still down on the Broncos passing game.


  • DTBC Article
    Drafters of the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins should definitely start the Vikings this week. They should play well at home against the 1998 dream team Bill Parcells has assembled.

As always, please send all feedback to [email protected].

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