Goose Chase 1
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Posted 9/5 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Don't refuse to go on an occasional wild goose chase. That's what wild
geese are made for.
- Henry Haskins
Henry Haskins wasn't considering the minutia of fantasy football research when
he thought that-but we will! It seems that every year the number of "sharks"
increase, and most people know all the statistics from a year ago. Those who
stumbled onto Cheatsheets.net and Footballguys.com once found the edge to win
their league; now utilizing this website has become simply a necessity to stay
competitive. What's going to help you gain that edge over your opponents? Without
doubt, you're going to need to think outside the box. You're going to have to
look past the numbers, and look at the derivatives; the elements; the fragments
that make up the numbers. Remember, last year's numbers themselves mean nothing-.
Those pieces form the statistics that are the basis for the consensus opinion.
What can you expect out of Goose Chase? I plan on exploring more aspects of
player analysis, with the goal of learning a bit more today than I knew yesterday.
Let's take a look at the QUARTERBACKS in fantasy football.
Note: The scoring system in place is the typical Footballguys scoring system.
Passing yards are scored one point for every twenty yards (0.05 points per yard),
four points per touchdown, and minus one for an interception. Rushing yards
are scored one point for ten yards, with six points per touchdown. Unless stated
otherwise, I'll be using an average league size of twelve teams.
Team QBs
It's not always easy to see which teams have the best passing attacks. When
two QBs split time, neither winds up very high on the final rankings. So let's
take a look at all the fantasy points generated by each team's quarterback position,
from 2003:
Rank
|
Team Quarterback
|
Pts
|
1
|
Team
Minnesota
|
389
|
2
|
Team
Tennessee
|
356
|
3
|
Team
San Francisco
|
338
|
4
|
Team
Indianapolis
|
324
|
5
|
Team
St. Louis
|
311
|
6
|
Team
Seattle
|
310
|
7
|
Team
Kansas City
|
309
|
8
|
Team
New Orleans
|
304
|
9
|
Team Tampa Bay
|
289
|
10
|
Team
Cincinnati
|
281
|
11
|
Team
Green Bay
|
277
|
12
|
Team
New England
|
275
|
13
|
Team
Philadelphia
|
268
|
14
|
Team
Arizona
|
267
|
15
|
Team
San Diego
|
267
|
16
|
Team NY Jets
|
260
|
17
|
Team
Denver
|
253
|
18
|
Team
Jacksonville
|
252
|
19
|
Team
Dallas
|
250
|
20
|
Team
Washington
|
236
|
21
|
Team NY Giants
|
233
|
22
|
Team
Carolina
|
232
|
23
|
Team
Pittsburgh
|
230
|
24
|
Team
Miami
|
227
|
25
|
Team
Chicago
|
224
|
26
|
Team
Cleveland
|
217
|
27
|
Team
Houston
|
215
|
28
|
Team
Atlanta
|
208
|
29
|
Team
Detroit
|
207
|
30
|
Team
Buffalo
|
198
|
31
|
Team
Oakland
|
197
|
32
|
Team
Baltimore
|
183
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What a difference a year makes! Last year, the Falcons QBs edged out the Vikings,
368-367, for tops on the list. Oakland was third. After Mike Vick and Rich Gannon
went down, both teams found themselves in the bottom five of the list in 2004.
A couple things to note:
- Mr. Underappreciated: Steve McNair
- McNair is always underrated this time of year, and he makes for an excellent
fantasy QB. He was a stud last year, and having Billy Volek behind him
provides nice insurance. I would have no problem passing on Peyton Manning
to take Steve McNair and his production a couple of rounds (at least)
later.
- Don't forget about Brad Johnson and that Tampa Bay offense. More on him
later on in this article. However, note the number of pass attempts for the
Bucs since Johnson came to South Florida:
- 2001: 592 passes, third highest in the NFL
- 2002: 567 passes, eleventh highest in the NFL
- 2003: 592 passes, third highest in the NFL (no typos here)
- The Bucs pass the ball, and they pass it a lot. They added three weapons
on offense since we last saw them: A pass-catching RB (Garner), a speedy
receiver (Galloway) and a first round talent at WR (Clayton). They could
easily throw it 600 times this year. If Keenan McCardell ever plays again,
it will be another big boost for this offense.
- Daunte Culpepper is almost universally considered the top QB in fantasy
circles-and it's a title he rightly deserves. Vikings QBs compiled sixty-five
more FPs than Colts signal callers, meaning Daunte still has a big edge over
everyone else. How good has he been?
- 2003: Top fantasy QB
- 2002: Top fantasy QB
- 2001: Number two fantasy QB in FP/G
- 2000: Top fantasy QB
- Josh McCown may be in for a pretty good year. We all know Dennis Green
has been extremely successful with less than stellar QBs, and the Cardinals
have three strong options at WR. What interests me is that McCown and Jeff
Blake combined to rank as the fourteenth best tandem last year. Factor in
the arrival of Green, rookie Larry Fitzgerald and normal maturation, and McCown
could be a big time fantasy sleeper. Keep in mind he adds a lot on the ground
and will pass a lot, so even if he's not the real deal he'll still put up
decent numbers. With the injury to Anquan Boldin, McCown's stock has taken
a big hit. However, that means he'll be available later, and should make an
excellent QB3 with high upside.
The Charlie Garner rule-or is it the Jerry
Rice rule?
Many times, Charlie Garner looks like a receiver playing running back. He averaged
seventy-seven receptions per year from 2000-2002, before the injury bug hit
everyone in Oakland last year. What I've noticed is that he's had a pretty remarkable
affect on his quarterbacks as well. Consider:
- His last year in San Francisco (2000), Garner hauled in 687 receiving yards.
That year, Jeff Garcia threw for 4,278 yards and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt.
The following year Garcia had "just" 3,538 yards and 7.0 yards per
attempt. As a team, the 49ers threw 77 less passes the year after Garner left.
To be fair, Jerry Rice also left in the same offseason, but had less than
850 yards receiving each of his last two years with the team.
- That same year (2000), Rich Gannon completed 60.0% of his passes with the
Raiders. Well once Garner (and Rice) switched Bay Area locales that changed
quite a bit. Gannon completed 65.8% and 67.6% of his passes the next two seasons.
He also saw a huge spike in his attempts, going from 473 without Garner (and
Rice), to 549 and then 618!
- Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia both had their career years with Charlie Garner
(and Rice) catching the ball. It's not hard to figure out, as Garner brings
two things to the table. First, he's a sure handed player that's very difficult
for linebackers to cover. As a result, he's great at getting open and is an
excellent safety valve. Secondly, he's not a great runner. So teams take advantage
of his receiving skills, and run less and pass more. The results? Very, very
promising fantasy numbers for his QBs.
- The question is who had more of the impact, Rice or Garner? We'll see this
year, as Rice stayed in Oakland and Garner moved to Tampa Bay. I have a feeling
that the Bucs will throw a lot of passes to Garner, and he's going to make
Brad Johnson a fantasy stud. Bucs RBs caught an amazing 139 passes last year.
Gruden brought back Garner to improve his offense, by throwing the ball more.
Playoff Time
Jake Delhomme shined in the playoffs, but did he show the biggest improvement
of all twelve playoff QBs?
Quarterback |
Team
|
RP/G
|
PP/G
|
Diff
|
PGP
|
Peyton Manning |
Ind
|
20.1
|
26.1
|
6.0
|
3
|
Jake Delhomme |
Car
|
14.5
|
18.2
|
3.7
|
4
|
Tom Brady |
NE
|
17.1
|
19.8
|
2.7
|
3
|
Anthony Wright |
Bal
|
13.5
|
14.6
|
1.1
|
1
|
Brett Favre |
GB
|
17.3
|
18.1
|
0.8
|
2
|
Donovan McNabb |
Phi
|
16.7
|
17.1
|
0.4
|
2
|
Quincy Carter |
Dal
|
15.6
|
15.2
|
-0.4
|
1
|
Trent Green |
KC
|
19.1
|
16.4
|
-2.7
|
1
|
Marc Bulger |
StL
|
19.3
|
14.7
|
-4.6
|
1
|
Matt Hasselbeck |
Sea
|
19.1
|
14.3
|
-4.8
|
1
|
Jake Plummer |
Den
|
18.2
|
12.9
|
-5.3
|
1
|
Steve McNair |
Ten
|
20.6
|
12.6
|
-8.0
|
2
|
RP/G = Regular season fantasy Points per Game
PP/G = Playoff fantasy Points per Game
Diff = Playoff FP/G - Regular season FP/G
PGP = Number of Playoff Games Played
Delhomme, Manning and Brady all were playoff heroes a year ago. Brady is at
his best when the opposition is toughest, and he proved it again in the playoffs.
Delhomme was magnificent, averaging 9.67 Yards per Attempt. Manning, as many
of us remember, was off the charts. Including the playoffs, he had three games
where he threw five or six touchdowns.
On the flip side, McNair certainly was a big disappointment-although he played
the two best defenses in the league. Many view Hasselbeck, McNair, Bulger and
Green in the same tier-and looking at their playoff performances doesn't seem
to separate them much either.
Mike Vick
Obviously, you're not allowed to write an article on QBs without mentioning
Mike Vick. Let's take a look at his last two seasons:
In 2002, Vick missed one full game, and missed another half of football combined
from the first Tampa Bay and first Carolina games.
In 2003, Vick played in just four full games, and one quarter of another (against
the Texans). So how do his numbers match up? Let's prorate the 14.5 game season
(his breakout year) and the 4.25 game season of 2003:
- 2002: 255 completions, 465 attempts, 3,240 passing yards, 18 TDs/9 INTs;
125 carries, 857 yards and 9 scores; 363 FPs
- 2003: 188 completions, 376 attempts, 2,202 passing yards, 15 TDs/11 INTs;
151 carries, 960 yards, 4 TDs; 278 FPs
Certainly, Vick was a much bigger force in 2002, and all the usual warnings
about prorated stats apply here. However, the most interesting thing for me
is the number of rushes Vick had last year. Twice in four starts, he had double
digit carries. If anything, you would expect the injury would have made him
run less last year. We all remember the Sunday Night game against the NFC Champion
Falcons, where Vick seemed to will the team to victory. If he runs 150+ times,
he's going to have a chance to hit the 1,000 yard mark. You don't need me to
tell you that would make him a top two fantasy QB just about every year.
Does Vick still have a ways to go as a passer? Absolutely. He faced some tough
Ds last year (Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay) and just didn't look like
the Vick we saw in 2002. However, that's what you'd expect from three months
of rust.
I know a lot of people are down on Vick now, as he's a bit banged up. He's always
going to make you cringe, and you worry that he can last a full season. As a
fantasy player though, he's got the kind of potential that makes him worth a
high draft pick. I don't buy most of the talk about Vick running less this year-and
if healthy, he's going to put up impressive passing numbers as well. I'd advocate
drafting Vick, and making sure you've got a reliable backup behind him-someone
like Brad Johnson.
Committee Lineups
For those of you that have read my QBBC and DTBC articles, this is probably
the last article you'll see from me before the season starts. Just to be super
clear:
- QBBC Article
For those using my Quarterback-By-Committee suggestion of Jake Plummer, Jake
Delhomme and Brad Johnson, I'd advocate starting Plummer at home against the
Chiefs this week. Delhomme has looked the best in the preseason, so that's
a suitable option for those that are still down on the Broncos passing game.
- DTBC Article
Drafters of the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins should definitely
start the Vikings this week. They should play well at home against the 1998
dream team Bill Parcells has assembled.
As always, please send all feedback to [email protected].
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