Goose Chase - Week 10
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Posted 11/11 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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We've officially hit the halfway mark, as twenty eight teams have played eight
games this season. We're long past blaming slow starts or bad games on a player's
performance, and this year's production is much more relevant than last years.
Let's look at some numbers through the first half of the year.
It wasn't too long ago that many people were calling Trent Green a bust and
looking to start just about anyone over him. Funny what a difference a couple
of weeks make, as he's now on pace to actually surpass his stellar 2003 season.
Here are his 2003 numbers and his 2004 prorated numbers:
Year
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Pass Yds
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Y/A
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TDs
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INTs
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2003
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4,039
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7.7
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24
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12
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2004
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4,300
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8.2
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24
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12
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When you pass for over 350/3 in consecutive weeks, that's what I would call
breaking out of the slump. It was just three weeks ago that many owners complained
"how did Kansas City score eight TDs on offense, and Trent Green didn't
get ANY of them!" Of course, Green isn't the only one having a monster
year in KC. The entire offense is once again looking unstoppable. They averaged
30.3 points per game last year, and are scoring 29.6 points per game this year.
They're well ahead of their yards per game mark from a year ago, as they're
currently on pace to total 6,860 yards! Perhaps most fascinating in all this-the
Chiefs wide receivers have just three touchdowns on the season. Kansas City's
offense has reached the end zone thirty times already, but eighteen of those
have come on the ground. The NFL record for rushing scores in a season is thirty-six,
set by the 1962 Green Bay Packers.
All too often we focus on just offensive numbers here in fantasy football land.
Let's give some credit to the Redskins run defense. Through eight games, they're
allowing less than ten feet per rush-3.07 yards per carry to be exact. Last
week saw an interesting match up, as they played the league's worst rushing
team, Detroit. The Lions continue to have rushing issues, as they average an
Eddie George-like 3.23 yards per carry as a team. Don't forget, they ranked
last in the league in rushing yards last year, and in the bottom five for the
third straight year. So how did the match up play out? Predictably, as the three-headed
committee of Bryson, Jones and Pinner ran twenty times for forty-eight yards.
However, the Redskins are only second in rushing yards per game allowed, behind
Pittsburgh. The modern Steel Curtain is allowing just eighty-one yards per week.
Neither team is set to become the 2000 Ravens though-that unit allowed just
2.69 yards per carry, and only sixty-one yards per game.
It wasn't long ago that "The Big Three" at wide receiver was one
of the most intriguing discussions among fantasy experts. Generally, people
with upside took Randy Moss, owners valuing consistency backed Marvin Harrison,
and somewhere in the middle resided Terrell Owens. This argument reached a peak
during the summer last year, and here was the case for each player:
- Terrell Owens: Ranked third or better in 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2002
- Marvin Harrison: Ranked first in 1999, 2001 and 2002; second in 2000
- Randy Moss: Ranked first in 1998, 2000; ranked top five in 1999, 2001, 2002
Last year saw Randy Moss blow both players out of the water, with his monster
career season. Harrison regressed a bit, and Owens dropped off a lot-he ended
the season ranked twelfth. Well, it's funny what a difference a year makes.
So which one is the best right now, for the rest of the season? Let's start
with old reliable:
On one hand, Marvin Harrison is really beginning to heat up. He's the top receiver
the past three weeks (seventeen points per game), having scored four TDs. However,
he still "only" had sixteen catches and 270 yards. Just doing a little
math tells you that those numbers would average to 85 catches and 1,440 yards
in a season. Amazing for most people, but for Harrison? He's eclipsed the 85
catch mark five straight years, and he averaged 1,580 yards per year from 1999-2002.
So even when Harrison's playing well this year, he's still way below "Harrison"
standards. His touchdowns are finally back to normal, after consecutive multi-touchdown
game in weeks seven and eight, but he's "only" on pace for 1,132 yards.
As you might imagine, that would be his lowest total since 1998. Harrison is
always capable of a 200 yard game, and I think we will see him bust out with
one before the season ends. However, I'd say he is no longer going to produce
the consistent numbers we've come to expect. Consider this:
- 1999: Nine games with 100 yards or more.
- 2000: Eight games with 100 yards or more.
- 2001: Six games with 100 yards or more.
- 2002: Ten games with 100 yards or more.
- 2003: Six games with 100 yards or more.
- 2004: One game with 100 yards or more.
As a result, Harrison (who happens to be the oldest of the trio at thirty)
has to be ranked behind the other two receivers. He's far from washed up, but
he also doesn't resemble his prime either. I'm not so certain his skills have
deteriorated, but it's clear that the Colts no longer rely on him. There are
no knocks here on Harrison the NFL player, but Harrison the fantasy player has
lost a good chunk of value.
Now let's take a look at Terrell Owens-who has an impressive forty-nine catches
for 750 yards and nine TDs in half a year. Owens has never had a 1,500 yard
season, so he's certainly on pace for a career year, right? However, going off
that is a bit deceiving. How many of us know that T.O. really stands for Time
Off? He's only played sixteen games once since 1998, missing time due to nagging
injuries and suspensions. Here's a look at his production from 2000-2002, prorating
his numbers to a sixteen game season:
- 105 receptions, 1,514 yards, 15 touchdowns
For those with short memories, that's what he did when Jeff Garcia was throwing
him passes. Owens may be getting more hype now than he ever did before, but
his production isn't any different. He's still one of the top four receivers
in the league, and probably makes Harrison owners cringe every time he scores.
Additionally, Owens does bring baggage to the table. Like it or not, fantasy
owners must be aware that he's always walking a fine line between "having
fun out there" and "getting suspended." Now that the Eagles have
been handed their first loss, how will Owens react? There is definitely still
some risk in Owens the fantasy player, but he is definitely a stud when he plays.
For the rest of the season, it's clear that he is the top WR to own.
Randy Moss has led the Vikings in receiving yards every year he's been in the
league-not a big surprise. However, he's currently third on the team, behind
Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson. Even if we don't count the two games where
Moss "played" but didn't do much else, he was still having an off
year for Randy. He was on pace for 83 receptions, 1,261 yards, and oh yea-twenty-six
touchdowns. Moss had become the red zone target, but the Vikings were clearly
spreading the ball around more than in years past. While everyone talks about
Harrison losing touches, Moss was becoming a similar victim. Just goes to show
you what having eight touchdowns in five games will do for public perception.
Once Moss comes back, I think he's probably going to steal Owens' spot at the
top of the receiver rankings. However, Moss won't be full strength for at least
two more weeks, and there's a good deal of uncertainty with how effective he'll
be when he returns. At 27, Moss is actually three years younger than Owens and
is definitely the better dynasty prospect.
Javon Walker? He leads the NFL in yards and is second in fantasy production.
Reggie Wayne? He's just a hair behind Marvin Harrison in total points, and currently
the fourth best WR. Darrell Jackson and Torry Holt are young receivers having
strong years too, and we'll see them in what should be a shoot-out in St. Louis
this Sunday. However, it's far too early to put any of those guys ahead of "The
Big Three", who after all these years are still a notch above the rest.
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