Goose Chase - Week 13
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Posted 12/2 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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There's a lot you can say about Peyton Manning.
- He threw more touchdowns in three quarters on Thanksgiving Day (six), than
the Chicago Bears have this entire season (five).
- The last two Jets games have seen a total of three touchdowns from both
teams-Peyton's thrown for more than that many in six
different games already.
- Manning's (forty-one) thrown for more touchdowns than Steve McNair (eight),
Michael Vick (eleven), Matt Hasselbeck (twelve) and Chad Pennington (nine)
have combined.
However, none of that really matters to me. While they're interesting to note,
they don't focus on the most important thing for us: Manning's fantasy numbers.
Here is the number that impresses me: 29.2
That's how many fantasy points per game Manning is averaging, which of course
is best in the league. How does that compare to previous years?
Donovan McNabb was one of the best fantasy players in recent memory during
his ten game run in 2002 - but he topped out at 25.9 fantasy points per game.
Daunte Culpepper's breakout season in 2000? Wonderful, but his 25.1 FP/G simply
doesn't compare.
How about Kurt Warner in '99? A measly 24 fantasy points per game, although
he won a Super Bowl for his efforts.
If we go back one more year, we encounter one of the most overlooked seasons
of all time. Steve Young, in fifteen games, threw for thirty-six scores (and
ran for a half dozen more) and over 4,000 yards (and ran for over four hundred
yards). I really had doubts that any QB in today's NFL could ever top Young's
super 28.1 FP/G year, but I was certain no pocket passer could. You need a ton
of rushing stats to be able to reach the high twenties in FP/G, and that's why
everyone close was a running QB.
Well, it looks like Peyton Manning just might prove me wrong. It's a testament
to his greatness that he can do it without any real rushing stats, like McNabb,
Culpepper and Young. Realistically, it was hard to assume any pure passer could
do much better than Warner in 1999, which is rightly regarded as one of the
all time great years. To put this in some perspective, if Young had no rushing
stats, he would have needed another 900 passing yards and 9 touchdowns.
But basically, that's what Manning's doing this year. He's on pace for a ridiculous
sixty touchdowns, and will smash Dan Marino's record. Speaking of Dan, how good
of a fantasy player was HE in 1984?
Good. Real good. But not 29.2 good. Marino averaged 26.8 fantasy points per
game that year, making him quite the stud QB. However, all this Manning talk
overlooks one very small detail. Sure, we may see the highest scoring fantasy
season in recent history for a QB
but we almost might see the second highest
scoring fantasy season in recent history for a QB.
Daunte Culpepper is currently averaging 27.4 FP/G, and would need to average
nearly thirty points per game the rest of the season to top Young's mark. However,
with a healthy Randy Moss he just may do that. Thirty points per game is something
like two passing touchdowns and a rushing score, 260 passing yards and thirty
rushing yards. With Culpepper and Moss, it's certainly within reach. Unbelievable
that Daunte Culpepper could average more FP/G than Marino ever did, but get
no publicity for his historic season.
I'd like to move on from Peyton Manning breaking the fantasy scoring record
to
Peyton Manning breaking some NFL records. No, I won't continue to praise
him for throwing 49+ TDs this year, because he's going to do something far more
impressive than that.
The NFL QB Rating has been in effect since 1973, meaning we've been tracking
QB efficiency for over thirty years. Remember, QB Rating isn't like most other
records-it's the baseball equivalent of batting average or OPS, compared to
say RBIs or home runs. You can't run up your QB rating too easily, as it's not
very conducive to stat padding. Anything over 100 is considered excellent, and
in thirty-one years the highest QB rating ever was compiled in 1994 by
Steve
Young. He averaged 25 fantasy points per game that year, but achieved fame by
recording a 112.8 QB rating. The second highest mark was hit by another 'Niner
a half-decade earlier. Joe Montana had a 112.4 QB rating in 1989. Kurt Warner's
109.2 rating registers as the third highest since the league began using the
system.
Before we praise Manning, let's go into a quick primer. QB rating is composed
of four statistics: Completions per attempt, Yards per attempt, Touchdowns per
attempt and Interceptions per attempt. Each category is given the same weight,
and each category also has a maximum score. (For example, completing twenty
of twenty passes doesn't earn any more points than completing nineteen of twenty
passes). Here are the cutoffs for earning the maximum in any category:
Completing Percentage: Over 77.5%
Yards per Attempt: Over 12.5
Touchdown Percentage: Over 11.875%
Interception Percentage: Zero interceptions
Now that we've got a little background, let's start with Manning closing in
on a perfect season. He's currently averaging 11.65 touchdowns per 100 passes.
That's awfully close to the maximum score for touchdown percentage. For some
comparison, Dan Marino's 1984 season saw his touchdown percentage hit only 8.15
percent.
So how does Manning's TD percentage rank all time? Sid Luckman threw 28 TDs
on only 202 passes in 1943-that's a 13.86 touchdown percentage. The highest
of the last thirty years was Ken Stabler's 9.28% in 1976; the tops the last
twenty years was Marino in 1984, but since then only Warner in 1999 (8.22) was
able to throw eight percent of his passes for touchdowns. All of this makes
what Manning is doing all the more remarkable.
However, he's not just setting records in touchdowns per attempt-he's setting
a record in something far more glamorous. Manning is blowing the record out
in Bonds-like fashion, compiling a QB rating of 126.6 through eleven games.
Manning's lowest score the past ten games has been 99.8, which gives me little
reason to think he won't shatter the current record. There's no doubt about
it, Manning is having the most impressive passing season of all time.
And yet, here we are again
overlooking something pretty interesting. Manning's
a lock to set the highest single-season QB rating in NFL history
but we
also might see the second highest single-season QB rating in NFL history.
Daunte Culpepper's playing second fiddle again to Manning, but his own 112.4
QB rating is still remarkable. With a healthy Randy Moss, Culpepper certainly
has a good chance to finish with a pretty special season of his own.
The average QB rating in the NFL last year was 78.5. This is calculated by
adding up every pass, completion, touchdown, yard and interception by all quarterbacks
in the NFL. In 2002, it was 80.2. The year before, the league's passers averaged
a 78.1 rating. So how is it looking for 2004? The league is averaging a sparkling
83.6, up over five points from last year's average. (Technically, the league
average is only 82.2 QB rating if you remove Manning from the picture. Did I
mention he's having a good year?)
There are several reasons why the league QB rating is so high right now, but
I see two big ones. The stricter enforcement of the illegal contact rule is
making the interception a lost art. Quarterbacks are finding life much easier
when they throw downfield, and interceptions play a vital role in figuring out
the QB rating.
However, another part of this might be due to the weather. As the calendar
turns to December, we might expect to see QB rating numbers drop a bit. Whether
or not that actually happens will be just another interesting plot to watch
develop in the final month of the season.
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