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Goose Chase - Week 3

Welcome back to year two of Goose Chase. After every weekend, we'll take a few minutes to look back on what we have learned. Let's get started with a look at the games played from week two:

  • We saw eight games that featured 1-0 teams against 0-1 teams. The 0-1 teams actually won five of the games, as only Seattle, New England and Detroit defeated their opponents. The five "upsets" were Baltimore over Pittsburgh, Dallas over Cleveland and Indianapolis over Tennessee, Chicago over Green Bay and the Giants over the Redskins. Only two games on the slate this weekend of 2-0 teams taking on 0-2 teams, when Atlanta hosts the Cardinals and the winless 49ers travel to Seattle.

Wide Receivers

A quick look at the top receivers in both conferences gives you very interesting results, albeit for very different reasons:

In the AFC, only two of the top five receivers in receiving yards are actually that-receivers. Randy McMichael (third) and Antonio Gates (fifth) are tight ends, while RB Dom Davis actually checks in as the fourth best receiver in the AFC. In fact, along with Lamar Gordon and Todd Heap, less than half of the top eight receivers in the AFC in receptions are actually wide receivers. And here we all thought the new rules were going to help them out the most…

It's early to speculate on Davis' potential, but in leagues with points per reception he's a super stud. I had my doubts about David Carr in the preseason, but he's off to a terrific start. With Carr, Davis and Johnson, the Texans just might have the next Big Three. Still, there are worries about Davis' fumbling and Houston is off to a 0-2 start, their worst since reentering the league. Things might not get better against the Chiefs, but Dom Davis should have another big week.

In one of my leagues, I have the good fortune (or curse) of owning both Randy McMichael and Antonio Gates. So which one do I start on a weekly basis, and who do I foresee finishing the season best?

Right now my guess is still McMichael. Tight end is one of the most difficult positions in the NFL to play, and Gates is still very raw. He had a lot of preseason hype, and he's off to a strong start. However teams will start to focus a lot of their attention on him, and I don't think he's experienced enough to adjust well to that.

In Miami, they at least have Chris Chambers to keep defenses honest. I happen to think Jay Fiedler's a better fit there than AJ Feely, but McMichael should be a fairly consistent performer. While Lamar Gordon is nothing special, with the amount of times Miami is feeding him the ball defenses still are forced to focus attention his way.

In the NFC, Cowboys and Rams take five of the top six receiver spots. While it's no surprise that Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are atop the leader board, it's a bit surprising seeing Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson and Antonio Bryant up there as well. What can we make of this?

Well the Rams have seen this kind of production before: Holt and Bruce finished 1-2 in the NFC in receiving yards at the end of the 2000 season. However, the next three years Bruce finished seventeenth, seventeenth and fifteenth in receiving yards in the NFL. Entering his thirties, few were expecting Bruce to have something of a bounce back year…except for John Clayton that is. Back in July he wrote:

"Veteran receivers who get quickly into routes -- Marvin Harrison of the Colts and Isaac Bruce of the Rams for example -- should have monster years."

While some may want to trade Bruce while his value is high, I'm not sure I'd advocate that position just yet. Remember, he's actually younger than Marvin Harrison, and he's got a terrific track record. The Rams declining as a team could actually help Bruce's numbers. Remember, the year the Rams won the SB they passed for 912 less yards than they did the next year, one in which they struggled to even make the playoffs.

Can the Cowboys keep it up? In case you forgot, they actually started off blazing hot on the offensive side of the ball last year too. Carter had nearly 600 passing yards after two weeks, and their offense was even ranked in the top five early in the season. This year, Vinny Testaverde threw for nearly 700 yards in two games, and has a significantly better arm than Quincy Carter. Will it last?

I think most people expect them to fall flat on their face, but I can make a strong case for Testaverde and the Cowboys passing for a lot of yards this year. The injury to Julius Jones makes the Cowboys a clear passing team-Eddie George will not be running the ball twenty times a game for sixty yards. With three talented receivers and a veteran QB not afraid of throwing the ball, I could see them throwing nearly 600 passes this year. There's also some precedent here:

In 2000, Testaverde threw 590 times in fifteen games, for 3,731 yards.

The 2001 Patriots won the Super Bowl with defense and relying on a running game with a mediocre back-sound like the Cowboys plan last year? Well New England followed that up by having Brady launch 601 passes in 2002, when their running game faltered. Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells are very similar coaches, and don't be surprised to see Parcells abandon the running game. In fact, Parcells' handpicked successor, longtime LB coach Al Groh, coached the Jets and Testaverde in 2000.

I can't leave this week's column without a look at some special QB performances

Chad Pennington is looking like, well Chad Pennington. His first year starting in the league, he led the NFL in completion percentage and QB rating. After an injury plagued 2003, Pennington has been red-hot in 2004. He's averaging a whopping 75% completion percentage, and his QB rating is in the 120s. A 70% completion rate is few and far between in today's NFL-Ken Anderson did it once for the Bengals in the strike shortened 1982 season, and Joe Montana only hit that plateau one time in his career. Steve Young also did it once, but Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, John Elway and Dan Marino never have. Pennington's 68.9% in 2002 is the highest in the league since the past three years.

Donovan McNabb is averaging nine yards per pass, and has a QB rating of 129.4. Neither McNabb nor Pennington have faced the stingiest of defenses, but there's no denying how impressive their numbers are. For years McNabb has received lots of criticism regarding his completion percentage. He's been remarkably consistent, as each of the previous four seasons (2000-2003) he completed between 57.5 and 58.4 percent of his passes. So how close to the 70.3% rate he's been at the first two weeks can he approach for the entire year?

Once again, my guess is closer than you think. This is clearly the best group of receivers he's ever had around: Terrell Owens is one of the best players in the NFL, and Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith have very good hands. As a result, players that have received criticism in the past (read: Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston) will be counted on a lot less this year. The duo caught just 43% of the passes intended for them in 2003, and 45% in 2002. Don't think for a minute that their inabilities to get separation and make the tough catch have affected McNabb's completion percentage. He should have no problem hitting the 60% mark this year, and will probably be a top three or four fantasy QB in 2004.

In case you were wondering, only four starting QBs in the NFL have yet to throw an interception: Tommy Maddox, Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner. Those teams are a combined 6-2.

Drew Bledsoe has been sacked eight times in just two games. I guess the talk about him releasing the ball early and the improvement made under Mularkey was a bit premature, eh?

Lastly, I've been disappointed with the play of Josh McCown-but it might be time to buy low. He's likely on many waiver wires this time of year, or owned by someone looking to get rid of him soon. McCown should see much improvement as the year goes on, as he's a young QB who will get his best WR back in a month or two. Down the stretch, he may start to put up some performances worthy of a starting fantasy QB.

Quarterback By Committee

It hasn't been the best of starts for our QBBC-Brad Johnson was benched in week two, and Jake Delhomme lost his top wide receiver. However, Delhomme and Plummer have still played well (ranking sixth and twelfth respectively). So this week, we're going to start Plummer at home against the Chargers. This should be a nice chance for him to have one of his strongest games of the season.

Defensive Team By Committee

It's a tough call this week-Washington and Minnesota both host surprisingly strong offenses and division rivals in Dallas and Chicago. The Cowboys rank first in total yards per game, while the Bears are in the top half of the league in both points scored and total yards. Both the Vikes and Skins looked impressive one week and disappointing the other, but play Minnesota this week. The Cowboys-Redskins game could feature a lot of turnovers, but I expect to see the Vikings hold the Bears under 20 points on Sunday.

As always, please send all comments, questions and criticisms to [email protected].

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