Goose Chase - Week 3
|
Posted 9/22 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
|
Welcome back to year two of Goose Chase. After every weekend, we'll take a
few minutes to look back on what we have learned. Let's get started with a look
at the games played from week two:
- We saw eight games that featured 1-0 teams against 0-1 teams. The 0-1 teams
actually won five of the games, as only Seattle, New England and Detroit defeated
their opponents. The five "upsets" were Baltimore over Pittsburgh,
Dallas over Cleveland and Indianapolis over Tennessee, Chicago over Green
Bay and the Giants over the Redskins. Only two games on the slate this weekend
of 2-0 teams taking on 0-2 teams, when Atlanta hosts the Cardinals and the
winless 49ers travel to Seattle.
Wide Receivers
A quick look at the top receivers in both conferences gives you very interesting
results, albeit for very different reasons:
In the AFC, only two of the top five receivers in receiving yards are actually
that-receivers. Randy McMichael (third) and Antonio Gates (fifth) are tight
ends, while RB Dom Davis actually checks in as the fourth best receiver in the
AFC. In fact, along with Lamar Gordon and Todd Heap, less than half of the top
eight receivers in the AFC in receptions are actually wide receivers.
And here we all thought the new rules were going to help them out the
most
It's early to speculate on Davis' potential, but in leagues with points per
reception he's a super stud. I had my doubts about David Carr in the preseason,
but he's off to a terrific start. With Carr, Davis and Johnson, the Texans just
might have the next Big Three. Still, there are worries about Davis' fumbling
and Houston is off to a 0-2 start, their worst since reentering the league.
Things might not get better against the Chiefs, but Dom Davis should have another
big week.
In one of my leagues, I have the good fortune (or curse) of owning both Randy
McMichael and Antonio Gates. So which one do I start on a weekly basis, and
who do I foresee finishing the season best?
Right now my guess is still McMichael. Tight end is one of the most difficult
positions in the NFL to play, and Gates is still very raw. He had a lot of preseason
hype, and he's off to a strong start. However teams will start to focus a lot
of their attention on him, and I don't think he's experienced enough to adjust
well to that.
In Miami, they at least have Chris Chambers to keep defenses honest. I happen
to think Jay Fiedler's a better fit there than AJ Feely, but McMichael should
be a fairly consistent performer. While Lamar Gordon is nothing special, with
the amount of times Miami is feeding him the ball defenses still are forced
to focus attention his way.
In the NFC, Cowboys and Rams take five of the top six receiver spots. While
it's no surprise that Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are atop the leader board,
it's a bit surprising seeing Terry Glenn, Keyshawn Johnson and Antonio Bryant
up there as well. What can we make of this?
Well the Rams have seen this kind of production before: Holt and Bruce finished
1-2 in the NFC in receiving yards at the end of the 2000 season. However, the
next three years Bruce finished seventeenth, seventeenth and fifteenth in receiving
yards in the NFL. Entering his thirties, few were expecting Bruce to have something
of a bounce back year
except for John Clayton that is. Back in July he
wrote:
"Veteran receivers who get quickly into routes -- Marvin Harrison
of the Colts and Isaac Bruce of the Rams for example -- should have monster
years."
While some may want to trade Bruce while his value is high, I'm not sure I'd
advocate that position just yet. Remember, he's actually younger than Marvin
Harrison, and he's got a terrific track record. The Rams declining as a team
could actually help Bruce's numbers. Remember, the year the Rams won the SB
they passed for 912 less yards than they did the next year, one in which they
struggled to even make the playoffs.
Can the Cowboys keep it up? In case you forgot, they actually started off blazing
hot on the offensive side of the ball last year too. Carter had nearly 600 passing
yards after two weeks, and their offense was even ranked in the top five early
in the season. This year, Vinny Testaverde threw for nearly 700 yards in two
games, and has a significantly better arm than Quincy Carter. Will it last?
I think most people expect them to fall flat on their face, but I can make
a strong case for Testaverde and the Cowboys passing for a lot of yards this
year. The injury to Julius Jones makes the Cowboys a clear passing team-Eddie
George will not be running the ball twenty times a game for sixty yards. With
three talented receivers and a veteran QB not afraid of throwing the ball, I
could see them throwing nearly 600 passes this year. There's also some precedent
here:
In 2000, Testaverde threw 590 times in fifteen games, for 3,731 yards.
The 2001 Patriots won the Super Bowl with defense and relying on a running
game with a mediocre back-sound like the Cowboys plan last year? Well New England
followed that up by having Brady launch 601 passes in 2002, when their running
game faltered. Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells are very similar coaches, and
don't be surprised to see Parcells abandon the running game. In fact, Parcells'
handpicked successor, longtime LB coach Al Groh, coached the Jets and Testaverde
in 2000.
I can't leave this week's column without
a look at some special QB performances
Chad Pennington is looking like, well Chad Pennington. His first year starting
in the league, he led the NFL in completion percentage and QB rating. After
an injury plagued 2003, Pennington has been red-hot in 2004. He's averaging
a whopping 75% completion percentage, and his QB rating is in the 120s. A 70%
completion rate is few and far between in today's NFL-Ken Anderson did it once
for the Bengals in the strike shortened 1982 season, and Joe Montana only hit
that plateau one time in his career. Steve Young also did it once, but Brett
Favre, Kurt Warner, John Elway and Dan Marino never have. Pennington's 68.9%
in 2002 is the highest in the league since the past three years.
Donovan McNabb is averaging nine yards per pass, and has a QB rating of 129.4.
Neither McNabb nor Pennington have faced the stingiest of defenses, but there's
no denying how impressive their numbers are. For years McNabb has received lots
of criticism regarding his completion percentage. He's been remarkably consistent,
as each of the previous four seasons (2000-2003) he completed between 57.5 and
58.4 percent of his passes. So how close to the 70.3% rate he's been at the
first two weeks can he approach for the entire year?
Once again, my guess is closer than you think. This is clearly the best group
of receivers he's ever had around: Terrell Owens is one of the best players
in the NFL, and Brian Westbrook and L.J. Smith have very good hands. As a result,
players that have received criticism in the past (read: Freddie Mitchell and
Todd Pinkston) will be counted on a lot less this year. The duo caught just
43% of the passes intended for them in 2003, and 45% in 2002. Don't think for
a minute that their inabilities to get separation and make the tough catch have
affected McNabb's completion percentage. He should have no problem hitting the
60% mark this year, and will probably be a top three or four fantasy QB in 2004.
In case you were wondering, only four starting QBs in the NFL have yet to throw
an interception: Tommy Maddox, Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner.
Those teams are a combined 6-2.
Drew Bledsoe has been sacked eight times in just two games. I guess the talk
about him releasing the ball early and the improvement made under Mularkey was
a bit premature, eh?
Lastly, I've been disappointed with the play of Josh McCown-but it might be
time to buy low. He's likely on many waiver wires this time of year, or owned
by someone looking to get rid of him soon. McCown should see much improvement
as the year goes on, as he's a young QB who will get his best WR back in a month
or two. Down the stretch, he may start to put up some performances worthy of
a starting fantasy QB.
Quarterback By Committee
It hasn't been the best of starts for our QBBC-Brad Johnson was benched in
week two, and Jake Delhomme lost his top wide receiver. However, Delhomme and
Plummer have still played well (ranking sixth and twelfth respectively). So
this week, we're going to start Plummer at home against the Chargers. This should
be a nice chance for him to have one of his strongest games of the season.
Defensive Team By Committee
It's a tough call this week-Washington and Minnesota both host surprisingly
strong offenses and division rivals in Dallas and Chicago. The Cowboys rank
first in total yards per game, while the Bears are in the top half of the league
in both points scored and total yards. Both the Vikes and Skins looked impressive
one week and disappointing the other, but play Minnesota this week. The Cowboys-Redskins
game could feature a lot of turnovers, but I expect to see the Vikings hold
the Bears under 20 points on Sunday.
As always, please send all comments, questions and criticisms to [email protected].
|