I'm never embarrassed to admit I was wrong, and certainly one of my biggest misses this year was Andre Johnson. I had him ranked as the 22nd best wide receiver, certainly a notch or two below where the consensus saw him. As you can read here in my face-off, I was skeptical about Johnson for three reasons:

• The sophomore jinx: Johnson was the twenty-eighth best WR in terms of FP/G last year, right around where Chris Chambers, Donte' Stallworth and Antonio Bryant finished their rookie years. They all dropped significantly the next season.



• The Houston offense and Dom Capers: They were last or near the bottom of the league in every major passing category in 2003.
• David Carr: He had a QB rating in the sixties each of his first two years in the league, and threw ten more INTs than TDs over that span.

So what happened? How did Andre Johnson become the number two wide receiver in fantasy football? (If you go by points per game rank, he still ranks fourth) Let's start by going backwards.

David Carr has a QB rating of almost 100, and his 9.2 yards per attempt lead the NFL. Dom Capers is a defensive coach, and his teams have never been associated with great passing numbers. Here's a list of where his teams ranked in passing yards per attempt, with the first four years coming from his time with the Panthers.

Now it's true that he's coached two expansion teams (1995 and 2002), so I'll cut him a break there. However, his team currently leads the NFL in yards per attempt, and at a rate higher than BOTH Rams teams that went to the Super Bowl. So how did David Carr and Dom Capers turn into Kurt Warner and Mike Martz? I'm still very skeptical about how long this can continue, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this team struggled at some point in the year.

As we move back to Andre Johnson, let's remember there are only two ways for a wide receiver to improve his production. He can either see his share of the pie increase, or the pie can get larger (the team throws for more yards and/or touchdowns). As you might expect, Johnson's currently doing both:

In 2003, the Texans gained 2,841 yards and fourteen scores through the air-which amounts to 368.1 fantasy points for the skill players (1 point per ten yards, six points per touchdown). Johnson caught 976 yards and four TDs, which amounts to 121.6 FPs-or 33% of his team's production. For the record, that put him in the upper quarter of all number one receivers in the league. No surprise there, as Andre Johnson was significantly more talented than the rest of the receivers on Houston. In fact, no one else even gained half as many yards as he did.

Well this year, Houston's already thrown for 1,375 yards and seven TDs, which translates to an astounding 179.5 fantasy points. Johnson of course, has 525 receiving yards and four scores through five games. His 76.5 fantasy points are 42.6 percent of his team's production through the air.

What we're seeing right now is the Houston offense operating as one of the best in the league-they lead the NFL in yards per attempt, are third in points scored and fifth in total offense. Andre Johnson has garnered a ridiculous amount of that production. Last year, Anquan Boldin led all number one receivers by catching 42.7 percent of his team's fantasy production through the air.

Right now, there's nowhere to go for Johnson but down. He's extremely unlikely to account for 40% of the passing fantasy points, and it's just as likely that the Houston offense will soon struggle. I missed the boat big time on Johnson, but I think he's the perfect example of a sell high candidate.

Everyone talks about selling high and buying low, but it's a lot harder than people think. Most owners are stubborn and will stick with their guys, because seeing their team lose would hurt less than seeing Marvin Harrison blow up for someone else in their league. But Andre Johnson has that "street cred"-most people already think he's great. Teams struggling for a receiver right now would likely pay a lot for someone like Andre Johnson, and his owners would be wise to make a deal. He's a very good player that's playing at an unsustainable pace, and likely to be significantly overvalued by someone in your league.

Another player that really has surprised the fantasy world is Tim Rattay. It certainly wasn't long ago that Jeff Garcia shocked everybody but Joe Bryant in 2000, finishing as the second best fantasy QB. Still, with all the weapons lost in San Francisco not many gave Rattay a chance. Most sharks realized that Garcia operated in the famous 49ers West Coast offense, which isn't utilized by the current team led by Dennis Erickson. So is this a case of a three game wonder, or just the next great Niner QB?

Rattay has completed an astounding 29 passes per game this year. How great is that? Rich Gannon set the record in 2002, with 418 completions-an average of just over twenty-six per game. Just as amazing, Rattay has attempted 45 throws per game. The single season record, held by Drew Bledsoe in 1994, is 691 attempts-an average of just over 43 per game.

Rattay's averages aren't anything great-his completion percentage ranks eighth, his yards per attempt number is just twenty-second, and his quarterback rating is ninth best in the league. However, he's certainly on his way to being a great compiler.

Unlike Andre Johnson, I think Rattay's got a chance to hold pretty decent value. Right now he's the fourth best QB in terms of points per game, so he can fall a good deal and make a great number two QB. His attempts and completions will fall, but his rates should stay about where they are. With the loss of Julian Peterson, there's no reason to expect San Francisco to be running the clock out of many games in the fourth quarter. Expect quite a bit of garbage points from Rattay, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see him finish the year in the top ten. He's thrown for over 700 yards the past two weeks, and San Francisco will certainly challenge for the league lead in pass attempts. With so many QBs posting similar numbers, there's a lot to like about having the guy that throws the most passes every week.

Don't forget, Rattay didn't exactly come out of nowhere. Last year he threw 118 passes, and had seven TDs against just two interceptions. His averaged over seven yards per attempt, had a 96.6 QB rating and went 2-1 as a starter in 2003.

QBBC:

With Jake Delhomme playing the Eagles, that's a match-up you certainly want to avoid. Plummer in Oakland may sound tough at first, but realize that Oakland is second to last in the league in yards per attempt allowed. Plummer may challenge for 300 yards and a couple of scores.

DTBC:

Not a hard one this week. The Redskins D should look very impressive against the inept Bears offense, so start them with confidence this week.

As always, please send all comments, questions and criticisms to [email protected].