It’s very popular these days to criticize Michael Vick, both as an NFL QB and a fantasy quarterback. Let’s just focus on Vick the fantasy player, and see what conclusions we can reach:

 

• Vick is currently the thirteenth ranked fantasy QB according to FBG scoring, and a few slots lower in points per game. While it’s certainly not tremendous, it’s far from awful.
• Vick has rushed for 348 yards in seven games, an average of just under fifty per week. This of course, is nearly identical to his 2002 numbers when he averaged a hair over fifty rushing yards per game.
• Vick has only four passing touchdowns this year, averaging just over half a TD per game.  The Falcons are currently fourteenth in the league in points scored, while they ranked fifth during Vick’s breakout season two years ago.
• Vick’s completion percentage and his yards per attempt are HIGHER this year than they were in 2002. You might want to reread that sentence, especially if you’re one of the doubters on Vick’s capabilities as a passer.
• He’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, and completing 56 percent of his passes. That 7.6 number ranks tenth best in the NFL and no one else in the top ten has as poor a supporting cast as Vick.

 

Perhaps the biggest knock on Vick has been his inconsistency. Let’s look at his weekly production.

 

WK	Opp.	Yards	YPA	Pass TD	INT	Rush YD	FP
1	SF	163	7.4	1	1	10	12.2
2	StL	179	9.4	1	0	109	23.9
3	Ari	115	5.8	0	1	68	11.6
4	Car	148	8.2	0	0	35	10.9
5	Det	196	6.8	0	1	29	11.7
6	SD	218	10.4	2	1	35	27.4
7	KC	119	5.7	0	2	62	10.2
Total		1138	7.6	4	6	348	107.7

 

Vick has had five stinkers, scoring less 12.2 points or less in each of those games. That is certainly killing many fantasy owners, and more than offsets the two impressive games Vick had. In 2002, Vick averaged 22.2 points per game, and only twice has he surpassed that this year.

            For a last piece of analysis, let’s look at Vick’s prorated 2004 numbers against his 2002 season:

 

		G	Comp	Att	PassYd	TD	INT	Rushes	RushYds	RushTDs
2002	atl	15	231	421	2936	16	8	113	777	8
2004	atlPROR	15	180	321	2439	9	13	116	746	2

 

Vick’s rushing numbers have remained pretty constant, except for the obvious drop-off regarding TDs. However, the biggest problem for Mike Vick the fantasy player is clearly the lack of opportunity. The Falcons rank thirty-first in the NFL (ahead of only the Ravens) in pass attempts per game this year. When you’re only throwing twenty-two passes per game, you are NOT going to put up impressive fantasy numbers. They rank fourth in rushing attempts per game (no doubt in large part due to Vick), but they will need to pass a lot more if Vick is going to become a fantasy stud.

 

So in the end, is it buy or sell on Mike Vick? There are a lot of positives to take from his situation so far. He’s still running a ton, and the touchdowns should come soon enough. His production per pass is very strong, and he’s not throwing a lot of interceptions. The big question becomes will Atlanta start passing more as the season moves along. The Falcons defense is probably playing a bit over its head right now, and Jim Mora is likely easing Vick and the passing game along. I think it’s buy low time on Vick, as he’s going to throw a lot more passes by the time November and December roll around. For those in their fantasy playoffs, he certainly could see some big games against weak opponents (Oakland, Carolina and New Orleans).

 

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Marshall Faulk is pretty much doing the unthinkable right now. He’s yet to miss a game this season, and has remained remarkably health for the first seven weeks. However, he’s also failing to produce anywhere near his usual numbers.

 

Fantasy points per game, 1999-2003: 20.5 FP/G

Fantasy points per game, 2004: 12.3 FP/G

 

Faulk’s worst per game average was in 2002, when he produced at just a shade less than fifteen points per week. However, that year Faulk played in several half games, and played hurt most of the second half. So how can you explain Faulk’s lack of production this year? He’s recorded nearly sixteen carries per game, which isn’t much below what he saw in his prime. His yards per carry on the other hand, are over a yard less than what he used to gain.

 

Still, the biggest concern for Faulk owners has to be his lack of touchdowns. Faulk has just THREE touchdowns in seven weeks. How bad is that, for Marshall? Consider that in the twenty-eight games he played from 2001-2002, he scored three or more touchdowns eight times.

 

Most Faulk owners drafted him in the second round, and hoped for great production for about twelve games. While his lack of receiving yards and general explosiveness is upsetting, his scoring drought is extremely bothersome. Can he turn it around? Faulk hasn’t totaled less than ten scores since the 1997 season, so he always deserves the benefit of the doubt. Additionally, Stephen Jackson has just one touchdown this year, and it came in a one-sided affair with the 49ers. But the biggest culprit this year has been Marc Bulger. Bulger’s already rushed for THREE touchdowns. If you give Faulk three more touchdowns, he would be the eighth best RB this year, ahead of Chris Brown.

 

If you own Faulk right now, there’s no choice but to stand pat and hope that he turns things around. If you don’t, you might want to actively consider trading for him. He’s still capable of a huge game, and I think Martz will rely on him more when the games become more important. Faulk has yet to have a single game this year with both 100 total yards and a touchdown. A healthy Faulk will never see his value lower than it right now. He’s wisely saving himself for an entire season of work, and the touchdowns will come soon enough for his fantasy owners.

 

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QBBC: With Jake Plummer playing the Falcons at home, he’s a strong start. The Falcons will be very committed to stopping the run, and Plummer should bounce back from his poor Monday night showering. With Jake Delhomme playing an angry Seattle team, I’d stay away from that match up. For those that drafted Tim Rattay as part of this committee, he’s got an interesting game against the Bears. The 49ers probably won’t need to score a ton of points to win, so I’d still play Plummer this week.

 

DTBC: The Vikings host the Giants, while the Redskins host Brett Favre and the Packers. With the way Green Bay has been on fire the last two weeks, there’s no way you can advice starting the Redskins. The Giants offense fell off a bit last week, and New York historically struggles at the Metrodome. Start the Vikes D with confidence this week.