Kevan Barlow

There I said it. No doubt, about ten percent of all readers cringe just seeing his name. Barlow is becoming one of the most frustrating busts in recent history, as his situation is particularly unique. Usually, a RB "busts" for one of two reasons:

1. He's hurt (see: Deuce McAllister owners)
2. He loses carries or touchdowns to another RB (see: Travis Henry owners)

   To a lesser extent, key injuries to other members of the offense have been known to kill a guy's fantasy value. Losing a star QB or multiple linemen often have negative effects, but they certainly aren't as severe as the first two examples.

Before the season began, most of us at Footballguys saw the top ten as follows:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (injury problems, still ranks 6th)
2. Priest Holmes (currently ranked 1st)
3. Deuce McAllister (injured, ranks 27th)
4. Ahman Green (currently ranked 5th, offensive line injuries)
5. Shaun Alexander (currently ranked 3rd)
6. Clinton Portis (currently ranked 11th, offensive line injuries, awful offense issues)
7. Edgerrin James (currently ranked 8th)
8. Jamal Lewis (currently ranked 19th, missed two games to suspension)
9. Fred Taylor (injury issues, ranked 13th)
10. Kevan Barlow (currently ranked 21st, no explanation)

Prorated to sixteen games, here is Kevan Barlow's end of year stat line:

• 267 carries, 967 yards, 3.6 ypc, 7 TDs; 41 receptions, 306 yards, 0 TDs; 169 FPs

To be fair, 169 fantasy points would put him in the top twenty just about every season. Enough RBs don't become starters until later in the year, and many others miss some time due to injury. But right now, Kevan Barlow is nothing more than a compiler, and a weak one at that.

Digging into the numbers a bit more...

Barlow ranks thirty-sixth (among the forty-one RBs that have qualified for enough carries) in the NFL in yards per carry. He ranks just twenty-third in the NFL in rushing yards, and no one has fewer yards with as many carries as him. He's not the worst starting RB in the league, but he's hardly the player many of us expected to see. Remember, Kevan Barlow averaged 4.7 yards per carry the first three seasons of his career. While much of that was in spot duty, Barlow looked great the last month of 2003. That was when he had his only four career starts -- as Garrison Hearst was injured-and he responded with 593 total yards and five TDs.

Well, losing Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens will hurt an offense. While Tim Rattay has played well in several games, Barlow's only good game of the year came with Ken Dorsey under center. So, is there anything that Barlow fans can use as hope for the rest of 2004?

Sad to say, there's not much. The 49ers of Owens and Garcia were in the top ten in yards per carry every season and top six in rushing yards each of the first three years of Barlow's career. This San Francisco team is in the bottom six of rushing yards and rushing yards per carry. LaDainian Tomlinson spoiled many of us by producing with just about zero help. It's quite obvious that not many runners can do that, and Kevan Barlow is not going to be producing until he gets some help.

The best hope for Barlow owners is that Rattay comes back and plays well, and Eric Johnson continues to keep the focus away from him. If one of the young receivers develops, then their will be a chance for some production. Realistically speaking, this is an awful team and Barlow isn't an elite back. He's going to get his carries, and probably finish the season in the top twenty-five. However, he's not going to do much more than that.

What's going on with the Giants passing game?

If I told you before the season that the Giants would be 5-2, and Toomer and Shockey were disappointments, you'd think I was crazy. However, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey are having very down seasons, two guys that have been dependable and productive in the past. Consider that entering this season, Toomer:

• Had recorded five consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, averaging 1,146 yards.
• Had averaged just over six TDs per year
• Ranked in the top ten once, in between ten and twenty thrice, and in between twenty and thirty once.

Toomer was a guy you could count on every year for 1,000 and six. Meanwhile, he's just on pace for 919 yards, and zero touchdowns. That's over 200 yards and six scores less than his average production, and this is for a 5-2 Giants team.

Jeremy Shockey's performance is just as surprising. He has averaged more receiving yards per game than any tight end in the league since his rookie year. He had averaged sixty yards per game, and prorated to three touchdowns per season.

So how can this star from "The U" be on pace for just 730 yards. Like Toomer, that's over 200 yards less than you would expect from a full season, based on his prior performance.

So if Shockey is currently just the eighth best tight end, and Toomer is only the forty-fifth highest scoring receiver, where is all the offense going?

New York LED the league in passing attempts last year, which certainly aided them in finishing among the top ten in passing yards. They ranked just twenty-eighth in yards per attempt, but over 600 passes placed them as the ninth highest passing team. The 2002 squad that made the playoffs also ranked in the top ten in passing yards (seventh), but they were actually the third best team in yards per attempt.

So how are they doing this season? The Giants haven't passed a ton (twenty-third), nor have they been especially productive (twelfth in yards per attempt). As a result, they rank just nineteenth in total passing yards, and thirtieth in passing touchdowns. Let's look at some prorated numbers from 2004, compared to the 2003 and 2002 season:

Certainly, Kerry Collins, Amani Toomer and Jeremy Shockey operated on all cylinders in 2002. In 2003, with Ike Hilliard back and Jeremy Shockey injured, Toomer and the rest of the offense saw their numbers decline. In both seasons, Shockey and Hilliard combined for just twenty-two total games. They've remained healthy this season, and it's certainly possible that they've cut into each other's production. However, it's clear that Tiki Barber is the biggest reason why both Toomer and Shockey have seen their production fall off. This is far from shocking news to anyone living above a rock these days. Barber leads the league in yards per scrimmage, and is on pace to break the season single record by nearly 100 yards (held by Marshall Faulk).

So what are Toomer and Shockey owners to do?

Toomer was usually drafted among the top twenty-five or thirty receivers, while Shockey was the second or third tight end gone in nearly every draft. Is there much of a chance for either to reclaim their value? I'd say yes. Tiki Barber can't possibly continue on this pace, and I think we're going to see Warner get in sync with the receivers as the season progresses. You won't get a ton of trade value for either player now, so I'd certainly avoid selling low. Defenses should shift all of their attention to Barber these days, and the Giants have the weapons to exploit them. I don't expect Shockey or Toomer to finish the season where we ranked them in August, but both have played as poorly as they can. Shockey's still a must start every week, and Toomer is a decent fill in for an injured player. However, expect a big half out of at least one of these players as Tiki Barber simply can't do it all himself.