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One of the most interesting trends in fantasy football is the downward spiral of the top QBs. For several years now, the best quarterbacks are scoring fewer and fewer fantasy points:
The lowest scores for any QB1, QB2, QB3, QB4 or QB5 all occurred last season. Additionally, it's quite obvious that the top fantasy quarterback's worth has diminished greatly each year. For the past six years, the top QB has seen their VBD value* drop from 187 in 1998, to 153 in both 1999 and 2000, down to 113, 96, and finally just sixty last season. Unfortunately, the news gets worse - for all the top QBs. In 2003, the VBD values for EVERY ONE of the top ten QBs hit a seven year low. That's a remarkable figure, and it wasn't even that close. In the following chart, '2003 VBD' represents the VBD number for all of the top 10 QBs; the adjacent column represents the lowest VBD value of all the top ten QBs, for any of the six prior years.
*VBD value is defined as the total fantasy points for any quarterback minus the total fantasy points for the twelfth best QB. By definition, every year the QB12 will have a VBD value of zero. So what does this all mean? By now we've all learned that a first round pick just shouldn't be invested in a quarterback. There's no doubt that top flight QBs are getting drafted later and later each season. What's the best approach to take advantage of this fantasy trend? I believe the answer lies in a Quarterback-By-Committee (QBBC) approach. The past few years, many fantasy owners have gone the way of the QBBC, and it offers many advantages. First, let's define what a QBBC is:
What are some of the advantages? There's an automatic safeguard in the event of an injury, as you're certainly not going to be waiting a long time to draft your second QB. Additionally, this lets you stockpile those RBs and WRs that you covet in the early parts of your draft. I also believe that if you want one of the three stud TEs, you HAVE to go with a Quarterback By Committee approach-to spend two early picks on non-RBs and WRs will put you at a serious disadvantage in nearly all competitive leagues. Earlier this month, I came out with a Defensive Team by Committee article, which can be seen here. This article will follow many of those same principles in helping us find a committee. What are we looking for in our QBBC?
The first two principles form the basis of the QBBC approach. Every week, we want to be facing a weak defense. (In fact, with the teams I chose, you won't face a single defense that's in the top half of the league). As for the home/road philosophy, it's no secret that NFL teams fare better at home. Well, so do the QBs. I think this is especially true when you're talking about guys who are either inexperienced or have recently switched teams. Players like Tommy Maddox, Quincy Carter, Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer, Byron Leftwich, Brad Johnson, Joey Harrington and Jeff Blake were run of the mill QBs who saw much better numbers at home than on the road. This, combined with weak opponents, should help us identify when those average QBs have their big games of the season. I strongly advocate adding a third QB. Quarterbacks often miss several games during the season, and you don't want to be caught with just one-or possibly zero-starters. Additionally, adding a third QB gives you one more chance to hit a home-run with a late pick. There's also the added benefit of taking away a possible strong starter from your opponents. For these reasons and others, I think you need to grab a third quarterback for this plan to work. So how do we rank the defenses? I used a compilation of sources to help determine which teams would yield the best opponents for our QBBC. I factored in the following 2003 stats: fantasy points allowed to QBs (thanks to Clayton Gray), passing fantasy points allowed to QBs, quarterback rating allowed and yards per attempt allowed. Additionally, I utilized both the FBG defensive projections along with some personal opinion of offseason moves, to finalize the list. Note: The scoring system to rank the defenses is as follows: One point for twenty yards passing, four points for every passing touchdown, minus one point for an interception; one point for every ten rushing yards and six points for every rushing TD. The following table shows how each team ranked in some key 2003 categories, along with my ranking of the 2004 defenses. Remember, this ranking shows the "opposing defense we LEAST want our QB to face."
I applied the same technique to ranking the QBs schedules as I did with the defense. If San Francisco plays Atlanta in week one, they get 30 'points' for that week. When the Colts play the Patriots, they get just one 'point' for the week. Bye weeks were assigned zero 'points'. I went through the entire NFL schedule, and assigned point values for each opponent on the schedule for all thirty-two teams. Obviously, we want our opposing QBs schedule to have as many 'points' as possible. The QBBC Trio The quarterbacks I've chosen have some nice things in common (besides sharing a name). Both Footballguys.com projections and expert rankings put them all in the thirteen to twenty-four range. Average Draft Position data has seen them drafted in the last month around the fourteen to nineteen spots among quarterbacks. You shouldn't need to reach early to grab any of these guys. Their combined schedule yields 440 'points' or 472 'points', depending on if your fantasy league includes week seventeen. (Note: For the rest of the article, all 'point' totals exclude week seventeen, as most leagues don't play that week.) What this means, is that on average your QBs face the 28th best defense every week. You should be able to mix and match the schedules, in the way I provided, to get excellent production out of the three players. Without further ado, they are: Jake Plummer, Brad Johnson and Jake Delhomme Positives for Jake Plummer Plummer should feel more confident in the Denver system as he begins year two there. After five games last season, and before a fluke injury, Plummer was the fourth best QB in fantasy football. When he came back in week eleven, he ranked as the tenth best QB from week eleven to week sixteen. (Plummer sat out week 17 as the Broncos had clinched the playoffs). Clinton Portis rushed for fourteen scores a year ago, but I expect the Broncos to rely more on the passing game with him now in Washington. Will this offense be good enough to beat the top defenses without Portis or Shannon Sharpe? Probably not. But Mike Shanahan is an excellent offensive mind, and Denver has enough talent to pass effectively against the lesser teams in the league. Rod Smith is still a very capable number one WR, and 2004 should see his seventh 1,000 yard season in eight years. Ashley Lelie now enters his third year, and showed signs of improvement last season. Garrison Hearst is an excellent third down back, and will be an ideal threat both as a receiver out of the backfield and as a blocker. TE Jed Weaver had a breakout year in San Francisco, and is one of the few players at the position that can average over twelve yards per catch. With him and Byron Chamberlain, Denver should be able to make up a lot of the yards lost when Sharpe retired. Plummer had the highest QB rating of his career in 2003, an impressive 91.2. An improved Broncos defense should continue to allow Jake to let the game come to him-he doesn't need to try and do too much to win. Additionally, Plummer's great running ability makes him a valuable fantasy QB. Lastly, he'll be playing five or six games at home against bad defenses, which should give his stats a nice boost. In 2003, Jake Plummer averaged over twenty fantasy points per game at Invesco Field at Mile High. (For reference, only one QB averaged over twenty-one fantasy points per game last year-Daunte Culpepper). Positives for Brad Johnson In three seasons with the Bucs, Brad Johnson has averaged over thirty-five pass attempts per game. He led the league in pass attempts last year, and the Bucs have added some new weapons for him in the offseason:
While they lost Thomas Jones and Keyshawn Johnson, the duo combined for just sixty-nine catches last season. Charlie Garner, who averaged seventy receptions himself the past four years, is reunited with former coach Jon Gruden. Expect to see a lot of passes out of the backfield to Garner, which should help Johnson's completion percentage. Galloway is the perfect complement to possession WR Keenan McCardell, who has gone over the 1,100 yard mark three of the last four years. The Bucs have two excellent receivers out of the backfield (Michael Pittman had seventy-five receptions last year), and have three capable TEs. They're very deep at WR, with Joe Jurevicius and Charles Lee providing talented depth. Even better, Tampa Bay appears to have no real running game. Neither Charlie Garner nor Michael Pittman is known for their rushing skills, but rather their receiving prowess. What's this all mean? Tampa Bay loves to throw the ball-a lot. They just added three weapons that fill key roles, and should be more potent passing the ball this year. Johnson has increased his number of touchdowns each year as a Buc, and could be set for a career season. In 2003, Johnson was among the league leaders in touchdowns per pass attempt in the red zone. When healthy, Johnson has shown he can be a top ten QB and thus a QB1 for your fantasy team. I expect him to throw between 550-600 passes this year, and he should have another big season. If the offseason additions pan out, Johnson may have his biggest year to date. These aren't your older brother's Bucs anymore. Additionally, Johnson's numbers really took off against bad Ds. He averaged 20.9 FP/G, had an 11/5 TD ratio (whereas it was 15/16 against everyone else), and threw for 8.10 yards per attempt in 2003. Positives for Jake Delhomme Jake Delhomme seemed to get better overnight. The first half of the year, he played conservatively and wasn't a fantasy force-he averaged just 12.1 FP/G. In the last eight weeks, Delhomme upped his yards per attempt ratio to 7.70, leading to 1,825 yards and 16.7 FP/G. Then, Delhomme took his game to a whole other level in the postseason. He averaged 18.2 FP/G, but his NFL numbers were even more impressive:
On the biggest of stages, Delhomme was at his best-he threw for 323 yards and three scores in the Super Bowl. Fortunately for Jake, he doesn't have to do it all alone. He's got two capable RBs in DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis. He's got two very good receivers who I expect to combine for over 2,000 yards this year. Steve Smith is the Panthers top wide out, coming off an impressive 88/1,110/7 season. He was an even bigger force in the playoffs, with over 400 yards and three scores. Muhsin Muhammad caught 198 passes from 1999-2000, but suffered afterwards due to Carolina's terrible QB play. He got hot in the second half last year, with 585 yards in the last eight games. Then in the playoffs, he had 352 yards. Rookie Keary Colbert, the all-time leading receiver at USC, will add another dimension to this offense. He runs very nice routes, is strong with good hands, and has all the makings of a good pro. Carolina WRs caught 73.4% of the team's passing yards in 2003, the fifth highest ratio in the NFL. DeShaun Foster is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and he has earned more playing time this year. TE Kris Magnum has capable hands, but is nothing more than a last option on most plays. Delhomme played very well at home last year, which isn't surprising due to
his inexperience. As he becomes more established, he should be able to excel
on the road as well. Still, it's certainly comforting to know that Delhomme
has three very easy home games this year, and there are two more home weeks
where you might want to play him. Against bad Ds from last year (per the Footballguys
Stats book), Delhomme averaged 7.51 yards per attempt and completed sixty-three
percent of his passes.
That adds up to ten or eleven home games and just six or seven (if your league uses week seventeen) road opponents. Nine or ten of the opponents are in the bottom three of the league, with nearly every game looking easy. For those that might fear the Tennessee Super Bowl match up, fear not: The Titans great run D leads to lots of points for your passing QB. Two of the past three years, they have ranked in the thirties in pass defense. The other year, 2002, they let up twenty-eight passing touchdowns. Two Out of Three Ain't Bad What do you do if you can't acquire all three players? Here are the top QBBC backups. The top 12 QBs in the league are all excluded from this list. In parenthesis, is the number of 'points' generated by the combined schedules of the three QBs. Jake Plummer, Brad Johnson, AND
Jake Plummer, Jake Delhomme, AND
Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme, AND
The Top Five Other Duos If you exclude the top 12 QBs, along with Johnson, Plummer and Delhomme, there are still some good late combos out there. Here are the top five pairs:
Stud QBs Some people really like the idea of having a stud quarterback leading their
team.
A word about Carson Palmer Top QB schedules Here are the top eight schedules, for the 2004 season.
There you have it folks, anything and everything you need to know about your fantasy QBs this season. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to e-mail me at [email protected]. |
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