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Watch List - Week 4
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Posted 9/29 by Maurile Temblay, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Each week I will write about one or more players unfamiliar to many fantasy
owners. I will not always recommend them as immediate waiver-wire pickups, but
I do recommend knowing who they are and following their weekly progress.
Jonathan Quinn, QB, Bears
Jonathan Quinn is in his seventh year in the league, but has very little game
experience. With Rex Grossman suddenly out for the season with a torn ACL, Quinn
is about to get his shot.
Quinn has good size (6-6, 240) and good mechanics, but only mediocre arm strength.
He recognizes different coverages very well, and can make good decisions when
he has time to throw. He has a reputation, however, for holding onto the ball
too long, and he gets himself in trouble when he is pressured. He is a pocket
passer with below-average mobility, so he will be counting on the Bears' revamped
offensive line to give him time to go through his progressions. He is not much
of a threat to run, and tends to take a lot of sacks.
A major knock on Quinn early in his career was his slow windup and delivery,
but he has improved in that area over the past several years. His release is
still slower than Rex Grossman's, but he did generally deliver the ball on time
during this year's preseason.
Quinn has been a backup in Terry Shea's offense for the past two years in Kansas
City, where Shea was the quarterbacks coach. Quinn showed a good enough understanding
of that offense that when Shea left the Chiefs to become the Bears' offensive
coordinator, he convinced the Bears to sign Quinn instead of going after a more
proven quarterback like Kerry Collins, Kurt Warner, or Tim Couch. Quinn's familiarity
with the offense was evident as he helped tutor Rex Grossman in its finer points
as it was being installed.
So will Quinn pull a Kurt Warner - taking over the reigns as a relative unknown
and leading the team to a stellar season, putting up terrific fantasy numbers
along the way?
Probably not. He lacks Warner's quick release and accuracy, not to mention
the All-Pro receivers.
On the other hand, it is almost never correct to dismiss a player before he
gets much playing time. With Quinn's lack of action over the last five years,
we don't know enough about him to count him out. The Bears' offensive line has
looked very good so far this year; Thomas Jones will take some of the pressure
off of the passing game; and David Terrell has the athleticism to blossom into
a star receiver, even if his potential has so far gone untapped.
Kerry Collins will be the hot waiver-wire pickup this week at quarterback,
and rightly so. But if you can't get Collins, take a chance on Quinn if you've
got the roster space to do so. If he fails, you can drop him again and pickup
the WR6 you originally let go to make room for him. But if he steps in runs
the offense efficiently, he could end up racking up some decent numbers, giving
him more upside fantasy potential than most WR5s and WR6s have right now.
As a general rule, any unknown NFL starter has potential. When he comes cheap,
as Quinn does right now, he is often worth taking a chance on.
Leonard Henry, RB, Dolphins
The purpose of this column is to give you some background information about
players you may not be familiar with. Sometimes I will write about relatively
unknown players you should consider adding to your roster; and sometimes I will
write about players suddenly appearing in the news who are, from a fantasy standpoint,
over-hyped. Leonard Henry falls into the latter category.
Henry began the offseason buried on the Dolphins' depth chart at running back,
and was placed on the practice squad before the season started. Ricky Williams
was the man . . . until he retired. Then Travis Minor and Sammy Morris were
given the chance to carry the load . . . until they were both injured in the
first game. Then it was Lamar Gordon's turn . . . until he was injured in the
third game.
Now Henry will get a chance.
Henry stepped in for Gordon last week against the Steelers and carried the
ball 21 times for 41 yards.
Like Jonathan Quinn, Henry is a relatively unknown player who is getting a
chance to start this week. But I view his upside potential as being much lower
than Quinn's.
Henry is a powerful runner with decent straight-line speed who can run through
a hole if it's right in front of him. He is not shifty or elusive, however,
and he will never be able to create running room on his own. He lacks great
acceleration, and is not a great pass-receiver out of the backfield. Think Stacey
Mack.
Unfortunately, Henry is not the kind of runner who will excel without a strong
offensive line to open up holes for him. And the Dolphins' run-blocking has
been atrocious this year.
Moreover, unlike Jonathan Quinn, Henry is not expected to retain his starting
job for the rest of the season. Travis Minor and Sammy Morris will return to
the lineup, the Dolphins just traded for RB Brock Forsey, who ran the ball pretty
well for the Bears last year, and they may still try to trade for another running
back. (Larry Johnson's name has been mentioned in the newspapers.)
I believe Henry is an exception, therefore, to the general rule that unknown
NFL starters have fantasy value for their upside potential. The Dolphins' running
game is terrible, Henry isn't a great fit for it, and he isn't likely to remain
a starter for long anyway.
Henry seems to be a hot waiver-wire target this week in many leagues. Let your
fellow owners have him. If you can't get one of the more obvious candidates
(e.g., Kerry Collins, Michael Pittman), and you're left deciding between Leonard
Henry and Jonathan Quinn to put on the end of your bench, grab Quinn.
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