The Waiver
Wire Report |
Posted 12/13 by Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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At this point in the season
there aren't a lot of owners left looking at the
waiver wire for impact players. Most teams that
are still alive are strong enough to get where
they have without needing a player right now,
but all of us are always looking for an edge
wherever we can get it. Keep in mind teams that
clinch their playoff seed early often rest their
starters for part or all of the last week of the
season. Philadelphia, Indianapolis, New England,
Pittsburgh and Atlanta have all clinched their
division. Having one of their backups like Kevin
Faulk, Verron Haynes, Dorsey Levens or Dominic
Rhodes could pay dividends if Dillon, Staley,
Westbrook or Edge are held back for the
playoffs.
Quarterbacks
Jon Kitna (Cin) replaced Carson Palmer
after he left the game with a leg injury. At
the moment I don't know if Kitna will be filling
in for Palmer this week or beyond. Kitna
obviously knows this offense very well and if
Palmer is out next week then Kitna would be a
possible sleeper at home against the Buffalo
Bills. The Bengals are clicking and Kitna may be
able to sustain the fever pitch. Chad Johnson
and especially T.J. Houshmandzadeh have been on
fire the past few weeks. Kitna could be a decent
pickup if you need a QB for week 16 and Palmer
is out. As Palmer's status changes or becomes
clear Kitna's value needs to be adjusted
accordingly.
Chris Chandler (Stl) threw 6 interceptions against the Panthers but he
could be starting again this week for the Rams in Arizona. Ken Dorsey threw 3
TDs against this same Cardinals defense last week. It would be a little extreme
to think he'd throw even 4 INTs this week, but he should have more success
against Arizona than he did against Carolina.
Billy Volek (Ten) is a great plug-in
starter when McNair is inactive. Otherwise, his
only value is to McNair's owner. As a dynasty
league owner you might hold onto him. In the
short term, he's strictly a last minute starter
because Fisher usually doesn't declare McNair in
or out until Saturday or even Sunday morning.
When Volek starts he's usually productive. If he
starts tonight against the Chiefs, then he'll
probably put up big numbers.
Kyle Boller (Bal) threw a career high
4 TDs against the Giants. Over the last few
weeks he's gotten the full Ravens offense
healthy again. Once Jamal Lewis is back to full
strength then it will be nearly the first time
this season they've had their skilled players
all on the field together. Travis Taylor, Jamal
Lewis, Todd Heap, Jonathan Ogden and rookie
Devard Darling have all missed games due to
injury. Getting everyone healthy and back on the
same page means Boller could be a pleasant
surprise down the stretch. Next up,
Indianapolis. One of the better matchups that
you could ask for.
A.J. Feeley (Mia) isn't really much of
commodity in most fantasy leagues, but he can be
reasonably productive and he has him brief
moments. Chambers, Booker and McMichael are
quality targets so he could have better number
than you might think this coming week at home
against the Patriots.
Vinny Testaverde (Dal) has a pair of
pretty tough matchups the next two weeks at
Philadelphia then at home against the Redskins.
It might be wise to leave Vinny on the wire if
he's out there, but at least he's a starter
right now and the Cowboys can smell the playoffs
again.
Josh McCown (Ari) threw for 307 yards but failed to get into the end
zone save for a successful 2 point conversion. He threw one interception but
helped lead the Cardinals back against the 49ers and force overtime. With McCown
at the helm at least Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald have a fighting chance
to be productive, not to forget about Bryant Johnson. McCown faces the Rams at
home in Arizona this week. That's a neutral matchup probably.
Chad Hutchinson (Chi) cooled off
quickly this week struggling out of the gate as
the Bears offense was a repeating series of 3
and outs in the first half. He settled down
later and finished with 212 yards but didn't get
in the end zone and threw an INT. That's 3 TDs
and 1 INT if you're counting in two weeks. Next
week Hutchinson faces the Texans in Chicago. Not
a bad matchup.
Ken Dorsey (SF) threw 3 TD passes against the Cardinals throwing for
191 yards on the day with no turnovers. I guess that's why they play the games.
The Cardinals aren't a particularly tough defensive matchup, but I would've
never called for Dorsey throwing 3 TDs and no picks or fumbles. Kudos to the U.
One of their finest had a good day. Dorsey's only as good as the matchup he's
given and if Tim Rattay isn't able to play.
Luke McCown (Cle) appears to be safe
for the next week and possibly the rest of the
season as the Browns starter. He struggled in
Buffalo under bad weather conditions and was
relieved by Jeff Garcia, who promptly got hurt -
an apparent knee sprain. The extent of Garcia's
injury is unknown but he'll be evaluated today
and we could know more by mid-week regarding
both players. Expect McCown to be the starter
for the Browns when they face the San Diego
Chargers at home this coming week. Another
fairly tough matchup so McCown's value is fairly
limited.
Pick up for next year
Chris Simms (TB) could re-emerge as
the starter in Tampa if Brian Griese leaves.
Simms was briefly the starter replacing Brad
Johnson but he got hurt and Griese took over,
played well and here we are. Simms is back on
the bench, but he could become the team's QB of
the future again this off-season depending on
what the team does with Brian Griese.
Kurt Warner (NYG) could end up
competing for a starting job somewhere else next
year or at least be backup on a team where he
could play like Detroit, Cleveland, Miami or
Arizona.
Running Backs
Impact Rookies
Julius Jones (Dal) and Kevin Jones
(Det) should be snagged immediately and
probably aren't available in 99% of the leagues
out there, but just covering all the bases.
Tatum Bell (Den) finally broke out this
week. He would've been the #1 player on the wire if he's
available in your league, but he got sprained
his shoulder and could miss a couple weeks to
the rest of the season. Reuben Droughns owners
can breath now. Bell looked
great in the first half although he came up short on one goal
line series dropping a TD wide open in the end
zone. If Bell didn't get hurt it would've been
interesting to see who would start next week.
Droughns appeared to be in Shenahan's dog house
after fumbling twice in the first quarter. Bell
then took over and rambled for 123 yards on 17
carries scoring twice. If it weren't for his
sprained shoulder it's highly doubtful that
Droughns would've gone back in the game. Now, he
might be safe for a while, but next year the
Broncos RB situation will be as murky as ever
with Bell, Droughns, Quentin Griffin and Mike
Anderson all looking for a piece of the pie.
I'll put my money on Bell.
Maurice Hicks (SF) made an impact in
first career NFL start rushing for 139 yards on
34 carries scoring a TD and making some big runs
in overtime to lead the 49ers to a road win. He
also caught 5 passes for 29 yards. Terry
Jackson also got 5 carries (27 yds) but lost
a key fumble late in the game that almost cost
the team. Jackson is third on the depth chart
and Kevan Barlow could be back in the
lineup next week and it will be interesting to
see if he's named as the starter when he is
ready.
Short term or injury plays
Arlen Harris (Stl) got the start this
week with Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson both
injured. Marshall Faulk was active, but did not
play while Jackson was inactive and held out. Harris got all the work against the
Panthers carrying the ball 19 times for 61 yards
and catching 4 passes for 41 yards. Not great,
but not bad either. With the status of Faulk and
Jackson both unknown for week 15 right now
Harris might be worth a pickup if he wasn't
snatched up last week. His shelf life is limited
though and I would expect Faulk to possibly
return with Jackson a bit more questionable.
Sammy Morris (Mia) got back on the
field this week and scored a TD while splitting
carries with Travis Minor. Morris rushed
9 times for 36 yards while Minor carried the
ball 10 times but for only 24 yards. Morris was
probably cut in many leagues and could be
available for another lap. Not an impact player
but he's kinda like fixing a leak with bubble
gum.
Antowain Smith (Ten) doesn't have a
lot of long-term value, but for the last three
weeks he could still get a start - or three - in
place of Chris Brown and the dreaded toe. The
only bad part about using Smith is you almost
always have to wait until after 12 pm to put him
in your lineup because Fisher will wait as long
as possible to declare Brown active or inactive.
When Smith starts in place of Brown he's usually
productive enough to warrant starting as your #2
back.
Chester Taylor (Bal) - Jamal Lewis "started", but it was Taylor who
saw the majority of the work this week against the Giants. Credit Brian Billick
for that misadventure for those who have Taylor and/or Lewis. Taylor ended up
carrying the rock 25 times for 104 yards displaying his cutting ability and
under-rated leg drive and power for being a smaller back while Lewis aggravated
his ankle injury prompting Billick to play it safe and go with Taylor. Chester is set to be a free agent at the end of the
season so hold on to him if you're in a dynasty league and you might have
something. Once again we're left playing the "who will start?" game and we may
not know if it will be Lewis or Taylor until next weekend. Against the Colts one
of them will have a good matchup.
Jonathan Wells (Hou), Obafemi
Ayanbedejo (Ari) and Zack Crockett (Oak)
all scored TDs this week, so picking them up
could prove to be a knee-jerk reaction and
there's no guarantee any of them will get
consistent opportunities to score. Crockett is
back as the Raiders goal line choice and he got
5 carries this week gaining 20 yards and scoring
on a 1 yard plunge. Crockett's main value lies
in TDs. Since the Raiders ground game is the
worst in the league, adjust Crockett's value
accordingly. He is one of the most effective
short yardage backs in the NFL over like the
past 4 or 5 years, but it's hard to say how many
opportunities he'll get. Ayanbedejo and Wells
will probably be too inconsistent to garner any
real consideration outside of TD only leagues.
The Raiders RBBC
Also likely to be available on your waiver
wire are fellow Raiders backs J.R. Redmond
and Justin Fargas, if not Amos
Zereoue, too. Zereoue had 10 carries this
week while Redmond and Crockett got 5 each.
Fargas one. Good luck trying to squeeze any
point out of this committee. Crockett may very
well be the best bang for the buck.
Players who might hold future value
Travis Henry (Buf) - Lost the job to
McGahee, but he'll be playing elsewhere next
year with a good chance of starting or competing
for a starting job. He's a quality back and he
should be healthy in time to be attractive to a
team looking for a solid starter - Arizona,
Houston, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Miami
immediately come to mind.
Marcel Shipp (Ari) may not start for
the Cardinals next year, but he will most likely
stick around because of his contract and at
least be given a shot to compete for the job.
Either way, look for Dennis Green to draft a
back or go get one via free agency.
Joe Echemandu (Cle) is getting some
looks in the Browns backfield because Lee Suggs
continues to be hurt and William Green has been
inconsistent and unproductive. Both Green and
Echemandu lost fumbles this week against the
Bills. Echemandu carried the ball 5 times for
just 13 yards, while Green had 11 carries for a
whopping 5 yards. Green and Suggs remain the
front runners for the starting job in '05, but
Echemandu could make a push for a 3rd down spot
and stick around as the team's 3rd back as he is
right now.
Wide Receivers
There is no stopping T.J. Houshmandzadeh
(Cin) right now. You can only hope to
contain him. He caught an amazing 12 passes this
week for 145 yards. That's the 2nd straight week
of 10+ catches and a total of 316 yards and a
TD. He's produced nice good fantasy stats in
about half of his NFL starts this year, but he's
been playing like gangbusters over the past
three games - 26 catches, 395 yards and 3 TDs.
He set career highs in every major category with
over a month left to play.
Lee Evans (Buf) is almost as hot as
Houshmandzadeh. Evans has 6 TDs as a rookie. Not
bad considering he didn't become a full-time
starter until a month or so into the season.
He's caught a TD in three straight games and is
quickly emerging as one of the league's top deep
threats and a heckuva player to keep around in a
dynasty league.
Joey Galloway (TB) is back alright.
He caught 5 passes for 78 yards and 2 TDs this
week.. He's caught 10 passes for 130 yards in
the three weeks previous, but now has TDs in two
straight games for the Bucs. The schedule is
plum with matchups against New Orleans this week
and Arizona in week 17.
Marty Booker (Mia) hasn't been consistently productive as a Dolphin
and he may never be with Chris Chambers and Randy McMichael arguably being the
top two options in their passing game. But Booker has produced two strong
efforts in a row and has at least 3 catches in 5 of his last 6 games. Baby
steps. In the past two weeks Booker has caught 9 passes for 141 yards and a TD.
This week he caught 4 passes for 45 yards with an 8 yd TD from A.J. Feeley.
Considering these two games were against tough defenses like Buffalo and Denver,
it's worth noting if nothing else. The next three weeks on the schedule are
against New England, Cleveland and Baltimore. Two more tough matchups, but
Cleveland might be a game where Booker could be a decent sleeper.
Eric Parker (SD) ended up having the
big afternoon while most had their fantasy
radars locked onto Keenan McCardell against his
former team. However, McCardell left the game
with a hamstring injury leaving Parker and
Kassim Osgood to get the job done. Both WRs
responded well in what was by all means a very
tough matchup. Parker finished with 6 catches
for 118 yards including a 79 yd TD while Osgood
caught a 19 yd TD pass finishing with 2 catches
for 27 yards for the game. McCardell will be
evaluated today probably and we won't know what
his status will be until mid-week possibly.
There's ample opportunity here for fantasy
production from Parker and Osgood if McCardell
is out. The Chargers face the Browns, Colt and
Chiefs the last three weeks. All three are solid
matchups, but the last two in particular are
very good situations for one or both of these
guys to produce starter-quality numbers.
Cedrick Wilson (SF) had a big game against the Cardinals catching 2 TD
passes and finishing with 83 yards on 5 catches for the day. Maybe it's Ken
Dorsey, but Wilson seems to be more productive when Dorsey starts or at least
Dorsey targets Wilson seemingly more than Rattay does. I haven't researched the
targets to see if the numbers bear that out, but it sure seems that way. Brandon
Lloyd was quiet for most of the game, but managed to also catch a TD early in
the game. Picking up Wilson might be a fishing trip though considering the next
three games are against Washington, Buffalo and New England. No good matchups
among those three games and with the QB situation subject to change there's no
telling if Wilson can sustain any consistency to warrant starting if you do get
him. He's been inconsistent, but productive in some games, so expect about the
same moving forward.
Clarence Moore (Bal) had his 2nd
multiple TD game of his rookie season. Not bad
for a guy who didn't make anyone's "A" list of
rookie prospects. He alligator armed a couple
passes in the previous week and even told
reporters rather matter-of-factly that he "hit
the rookie wall". Whatever the case, Moore
delivered this week when Kyle Boller went to him
in the red zone making two outstanding grabs
over the defender in each case. He's got
excellent size, good/deceptive speed and great
leaping ability. He's a former triple jumper and
track guy and flew under the radar for most
playing college football at small school
Northern Arizona where he put up huge numbers.
Long-term he could blossom into a fine fantasy
WR but keep in mind he'll be sharing targets
with Todd Heap and Travis Taylor on a
run-oriented football team. So, just how high
his fantasy potential goes is debatable. What's
not debatable is his ability to go up and get a
football in traffic or when covered in the red
zone. He could have some value as a sleeper this
week against the Colts but the following two
weeks will be tougher against Pittsburgh and
Miami, both of which are tough matchups for WRs.
Bobby Engram (Sea) delivered solid production this week in a game
that featured a good matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Engram caught a 35
yd TD pass while finishing with 4 receptions and 79 yards for the game. Teammate
Jerry Rice continued to be reasonably productive with 5 catches for 52
yards. Koren Robinson will be out for two more weeks serving his 4 game
suspension so continue looking for one of these two WRs to fill the gap. Seattle
plays the Jets on the road and then finishes at home against Arizona and
Atlanta. The last two games are solid matchups but the Jets might be a little
bit tougher to get much out of Engram.
Bryant Johnson (Ari) - Johnson's numbers have dropped since Anquan
Boldin returned to the lineup but he was active this week against the 49ers. He
caught 4 passes for 77 yards including a 40 yard haul down the sidelines and he
also narrowly missed on another similar play. He would be a long shot to expect
any kind of fantasy production that would merit starting, but with McCown giving
the team slightly better production than King or Navarre he's worth mentioning.
John Stone (Oak) made his debut for
the Raiders this week replacing the injured
Ronald Curry. Stone is a small WR with excellent
speed. He produced a 55 yd catch this week while
finishing with 2 catches on the day for 62
yards. Another long shot to produce, but the
Raiders throw the ball more because their
running continues to stink. With their final
three games against Tennessee, Kansas City and
Jacksonville maybe Stone could be worthwhile as
a deep sleeper the next two weeks in particular.
Both are very good matchups.
Likely to have larger roles next year
Michael Jenkins (Atl) was a 1st round
draft choice (29th overall) by the Falcons but
he's been slow to develop as a rookie. Next year
expect him to emerge as a starter opposite
Peerless Price giving the Falcons a tall, speedy
WR to help stretch the field and make plays in
the red zone. For now that's his best value
because while he's earning more playing time
right now he's still not producing enough to
even consider him for a starting gig.
Reggie Williams (Jac) caught his first
NFL touchdown this week against the Bears. In
his best day as a pro, Williams caught 4 passes
for 62 yards and a 6 yard TD. He's big, physical
and fits the prototype you look for in a go-to
receiver, but he's struggled with the speed of
the NFL and has yet to show he can consistently
separate from coverage. He's been a slight bust
as a rookie, but still has an excellent chance
to emerge next season as Byron Leftwich and the
Jaguars offense continues to evolve.
Bernard Berrian (Chi) could emerge as
a starter for the Bears next season. He's
blessed with good speed and decent size (6' 1"
185 lbs) but right now he's only on the field in
3 and 4 WR formations where he is usually in a
good matchup with a nickel or dime back in
coverage. Once/If the Bears passing game
develops with Grossman - or whoever - then
Berrian could be worth holding onto in dynasty
leagues. The Bears WR corps isn't bad at all,
but their QB play has been among the worst seen
in the NFL over the past several years. Did
anyone else see the QBs displayed on the TV
screen yesterday that David Terrell has endured
in his tenure with the Bears? I mean we're
talking about blokes like Steve Stenstrom and
Henry Burris.
Lee Mays (Pit) could be a deep sleeper
for next year if Plaxico Burress leaves via free
agency. Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle-El would
likely be the starters, but Mays has talent and
ability, too. He's worth nothing more than a
flyer for next year, but you never know.
Kelley Washington (Cin) isn't
producing on the level of teammate T.J.
Houshmandzadeh but he's catching TD passes
and making the most of this targets from that
angle. Washington has the physical talent to be
a special player, but he's still a work in
progress and needs to continue refining his
route running and doing the little things that
make a good WR a polished WR. Next year will be
his 3rd in the league and while Peter Warrick
will probably be back along with Houshmandzadeh,
Washington stands as good a chance as either of
those two to earn a starting job and emerge as a
viable #3 fantasy WR. Washington caught 2
balls this week for 35 yds and a TD. He's caught
a TD in three of the last four games.
Second half surges
Eddie Kennison, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate
Burleson, Lee Evans, Antonio Bryant, Jerry
Porter, and Drew Bennett have all produced
excellent numbers in the second half of the
season. I usually keep tabs on the players who
finish strongly and look a bit closer to see if
it's by design, luck, injury or otherwise.
Usually players who have increasing roles as the
season progresses tend to carry over their
momentum to the following season. So keep an eye
on these players when you start looking at those
3rd, 4th and 5th receivers to draft next year.
Tight Ends
Erron Kinney (Ten) has an outstanding
matchup and opportunity to produce tonight
against the Chiefs on Monday night football, but
also has some decent to very good matchups the
final three weeks as well against Oakland,
Denver and Detroit. The Broncos are tough on TEs
but Oakland is an outstanding matchups having
allowed 9 TDs to TEs. Since Kinney returned to
the lineup in week 10 he's caught 13 passes for
121 yards and 2 TDs ranking 10th in that span.
With a solid game tonight against KC he can make
a solid claim to being a top 10 TE or a starting
caliber TE down the stretch.
Chris Cooley (Was) continues to build
momentum as a fantasy TE. He ranks 5th among
fantasy TEs since week 10 with 18 receptions for
158 yards and 3 TDs in those 5 games. As both a
re-draft and dynasty league player he holds
solid value and potential to be a middle tiered
fantasy starting TE. The last three weeks look
like solid matchups against SF, Dallas and
Minnesota so get him and use him if your current
options are weak.
Ken Dilger (TB) caught 4 passes for 28
yards this week and continues to be a decent,
but not great fantasy TE when used as a
situational plug-in, backup or someone to round
out your roster. He has 8 catches for 55 yards
in the past two weeks. Tampa has two strong
matchups for him in the last three games coming
this next week against New Orleans (excellent
matchup) and again in week 17 at Arizona. Week
16 is against Carolina, who he faced in week 12
but produced only 1 catch for 19 yards.
Billy Miller (Hou) has slowly emerged
the past few weeks as a viable target once
again, but he's been largely ignored most of the
season and remains sporadic as a fantasy option
catching a couple balls one week and then
producing a goose egg every other week.
Kickers
Jason Hanson (Det), Josh Scobee (Jac) and Rian Lindell (Buf)
all rank among the top 10 kickers over the last 5 weeks (since week 10). Any of
these kickers might be worthwhile down the stretch but consider the matchup for
the given week if you're looking to flip/flop kickers to gain that extra
advantage. The kickers who performed better than usual this past week and might
also be worth looking at are Neil Rackers, John Kasay and Morten
Andersen.
Defense / Special Teams
The teams with good defensive matchups for
this coming week that could be solid waiver wire
pickup and play options include Arizona
(vs St. Louis), Green Bay (vs
Jacksonville), Indianapolis (vs
Baltimore), Houston (at Chicago) and
possibly Tennessee (at Oakland).
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