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Before we get started, I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for reading and I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday and this column was helpful in your waiver wire endeavors this season. Obviously, heading into the last week of the season most people aren't even reading this column anymore, but for those of you still hanging in there, I'll touch on some players who may have some value this week and some of those who may see expanding roles next season for those of you with keeper / dynasty interests. With some teams already clinching home field advantage or locked into their playoff seed we can expect several of our weekly starters and fantasy studs to sit out this week. As such, we'll give a run down on those who are affected and breakdown what we might expect to see in terms of backups worth picking up for a one week rental. Thanks again everyone and I hope to see you all back here at the same place next year. In the meantime, I'll be hanging around the FBG forums. Happy New Year everyone! Quarterbacks First let's take a look at a couple QBs who might be worth a waiver claim to play this week... Joey Harrington (Det) - Harrington could be very productive against the Titans secondary to close the season. He didn't produce anything against the Bears mainly because of two factors. One, the Bears run defense is pretty bad without Urlacher. Two, the Bears secondary is pretty strong with their four top corners finally all healthy - Tillman, Azumah, McQuarters and rookie Nathan Vasher. The Titans secondary is anything but healthy and they've been beaten like a drum almost every week recently. Harrington could fall in line with 230+ yards and 2+ TDs as the Lions tease their fans with two wins to close the season giving them yet another off-season filled with hope, high draft picks and lofty expectations for next year. Such is the life of a Lions fan. Carson Palmer (Cin) - Palmer might have what appears to be a tough matchup against the Eagles on the road next week, but in reality if might be a game where Palmers might take advantage of the Eagles playing out a string. The Eagles will be resting for the playoffs and they might not bring their "A" game, so to speak. Palmer and the Bengals will be looking at this game as an opportunity to make a statement and give their team some momentum to build upon for next year. It's like black magic predicting what might happen in Week 17, but quite often it's players like this that are in the right situation to take advantage of the strangeness that happens when other teams go on cruise control. Luke McCown (Cle) - The Texans defense is a good play on paper, but they've been a demon in recent weeks for other QBs like Peyton Manning and Byron Leftwich. I'm not so sure I'd mess with playing McCown on the road against them, but from a dynasty perspective McCown has shown enough to raise my interest level to where I'm curious what he might do with more seasoning. Jeff Garcia has said he'd like to return to Cleveland, but with a new front office and coach coming this off-season one should expect that decision to be made by the next regime. That means McCown could enter next season with a legitimate chance to compete for the job, or he could be back with Garcia as the backup, or something else could happen like another veteran QB comes to Cleveland. For week 17 I'd consider McCown a very risky play in Houston. Now, let's take a look at some QBs who will be starting or playing this week either because of injury and/or because their team has already clinched their playoff spot and will likely be holding back their starters for all or parts of this week's game. Tommy Maddox (Pit) - Big Ben was knocked out of the game against Baltimore with what appears to be a chest/shoulder injury. Maddox finished the game but the Steelers didn't have to throw the ball since they had a healthy lead and their ground game was doing such an outstanding job. It's unknown whether or not Roethlisberger will start next week, but I suspect the Steelers may wisely opt to let him sit it out, get healthy for the playoffs and let Maddox run the controls for the last game of the season. The Steelers have bigger fish to fry right now than to risk the health of Roethlisberger heading into the playoffs. Matt Schaub (Atl) - Schaub started in place of Michael Vick this week as the Falcons lost to the New Orleans Saints. While Schaub didn't look as great as he did in the pre-season he managed to produce 188 yards on 17/41 passing. His biggest short coming on the day was no TDs and 2 interceptions. Then again, he didn't have Alge Crumpler or T.J. Duckett in the lineup to keep the Saints defense more honest against the run. The Falcons are in Seattle next week but it would be a surprise if Vick plays the full game or if he plays at all. Koy Detmer (Phi) - It looks more than likely that Koy Detmer could start for the Eagles in their final regular season game at home against Cincinnati. If Detmer starts he may be semi-useful, but I wouldn't expect top 10 numbers. The Bengals pass defense is exploitable, but under-rated as a whole. Without Terrell Owens and with Brian Westbrook possibly riding the pine then Detmer may have too few weapons to be a decent fantasy play. Doug Johnson (Ten) - Volek was knocked out of Saturday night's game vs. Denver with a knee injury. He may not be able to play this week which would lead to the Titans starting Doug Johnson. It would have to be under the most dour of circumstances that Johnson would interest you from a fantasy perspective. He's been productive in a couple games when forced to play with the Falcons in the past, but he's been simply horrible in his most recent opportunities. Dynasty Watch Jon Kitna (Cin) - Look for a team like the Detroit Lions to sign Kitna next season with the idea that he'll be given a shot to compete for the starting job. Not saying the Lions would sign Kitna, but Kitna will be looking for a starting job and if he's unable to land on a team as their starter, then he'll probably go to a team where he's got a reasonably good chance to win the job sooner or late. Similar to how Kerry Collins signed with the Raiders, but sang the company song about how Rich Gannon was the unchallenged starter. Anyone with half a brain saw through the ruse before the ink dried on Collin's contract. Kitna has starter ability and solid fantasy potential if given the proper opportunity. Chris Simms (TB) - With the Bucs clearly out of the playoff picture now would it be much of a surprise to see Jon Gruden turn to his former "QB of the future"? Just like Thomas Jones last year, we expected the Bucs to re-sign him after playing pretty well for them, but Jones signed elsewhere. Brian Griese could follow the same path. Simms has to be considered a solid contender for the 2005 starting job whether Griese returns or not. As such, he's worth rostering in a dynasty league if you can still get him. Worst case scenario? Griese returns and holds off Simms for the job. David Garrard (Jac) - Garrard will be a free agent after the season and could be signed elsewhere and have a better shot at starting in the league. He's gifted athletically as a runner, but he's still underwhelming as a passer at the NFL level. For my money, he's a ton better than the Lions QB Mike McMahon, who is another QB prospect that grabs the eye because of his running abilities, but leaves you feeling underwhelmed with his passing accuracy and instincts. Drew Henson (Dal) - Tony Romo blah blah blah.. Who even knows if Bill Parcells will be back in 2005? My gut feeling is he will return considering he's at the wheel for what could be a windfall of free agent signings not to mention a pair of 1st round draft picks. Parcells says Vinny could return as the starter in 2005. He recently "demoted" Henson to third string so he could supposedly get more of a look at Tony Romo. Romo could be a nice sleeper, too, but Henson simply has too much raw talent to waste away on the bench for too long. He'll be on the field at some point in 2005, but just how much might depend on whether Vinny retires or not, Romo beats Henson for the backup or starting gig, or the Cowboys go after a QB in free agency. J.P. Losman (Buf) - The Bills may be turning to Losman quicker than anyone might think. Drew Bledsoe remains a good leader and solid player as long as he has good protection and WRs who can get open downfield and make plays. But when the protection breaks down and the running game struggles, Bledsoe has a difficult time making plays on his own. That's where Losman will become a better player for the Bills, but to think he could take over at any time in 2005 and give the Bills a better chance of winning is ludicrous. That said, Losman has the talent and ability to be the Bills starter and depending on what happens with Bledsoe that might come either in 2005 or at least by 2006. They didn't trade a first round pick to the Cowboys in 2005 to keep Losman waiting in the wings for too long. Philip Rivers (SD) - This will be one of the most interesting stories of the NFL off-season. What do the Chargers do with Brees and Rivers? Everyone on the team wants Brees back, but the front office jumped the gun and most likely already made their decision - whether they still agree with it or not. They sewed their oats last year by trading/drafting Rivers in the first round, paying him top dollar and then riding out Drew Brees' contract. They didn't expect Brees to explode in 2004, but he did and he's likely priced himself out of a Chargers uniform in 2005. If Brees leaves, Rivers will be expected to play immediately and win much like the situation Carson Palmer was put into for the Bengals in 2004, only Rivers might not have the luxury of Brees sticking around to get his back. Cody Pickett (SF) - I actually began writing about Pickett before the 49ers game on Sunday.. I tentatively wrote the following.. "Purely speculation on my part and Pickett graces this column mostly for the sake of conversation. Maybe the rookie QB will get a chance to play in the last week of the season so the 49ers front office has a chance to study him in game action. Otherwise, he may be worth a speculative pickup heading into next season if he's deemed as a possible starter for the 49ers. That train of thought in and of itself may be far-fetched though since the 49ers will probably take a QB with their first pick in April's NFL draft. Either way, watch the news this week because it wouldn't be a surprise at all if Pickett gets a little playing time this week, but that doesn't mean he's good waiver wire fodder for the above reasons." Well, you can accelerate this a bit since Pickett was thrust into action on Sunday. The Bills, predictably, made Ken Dorsey's day quite difficult and eventually knocked him out of the game. Pickett showed some nice arm strength on a few occasions, but he's got a lot of work before he develops into an NFL starter. Either way, as a dynasty league player he's worth fishing for if you have deep rosters. Running Backs Antowain Smith (Ten) - Smith faces a Lions defense that is solid, but very beatable on the ground. Thomas Jones managed to break 100 yds last week against them, so Smith certainly has a chance to do the same and find the end zone. Anytime you can get a starting RB in the NFL off your waiver wire, it's usually worthwhile Michael Bennett (Min) - Bennett has regained the starting job from Onterrio Smith but he has a tough matchup next week against the Redskins. He might be lingering in some leagues and could be there for the taking. Don't expect a big game though. The Redskins defense is disciplined and playing very well. Bennett's best contributions might be his combined yardage, but at least the Vikings have a lot to play for so that could be an angle worth pursuing. Shaud Williams (Buf) - Williams didn't start this week for the Bills but he logged quality minutes rushing 17 times for 93 yards with a TD. It's possible the Bills might keep McGahee well-rested next week giving Williams another golden opportunity to get a lot of touches. However, their opponent will be the Pittsburgh Steelers so every yards he gains will be a yard well-earned. Greg Jones (Jac) - Fred Taylor was held back this week against Houston, but Jones only got 9 carries and finished with 38 yards. If Taylor doesn't play this week against the Raiders, he might be worth a look as he could be more productive. The problem is the Jags don't commit to one runner in lieu of Taylor. Jones got 9 carries, Fu'amatu Ma'afala got 4, Toefield got 3 and so on. But Jones is the most likely to score a TD as the Jags short yardage runner and since he's also getting the most carries, he's your best bet. Jason Wright (Atl) - Jim Mora said before week 15's game that the Falcons won't simply rest all their players because they have a lot to work on and skills to sharpen before the playoffs. I don't buy it. I don't think they'll risk further injury to T.J. Duckett by playing him and they'd be wise to limit Warrick Dunn's workload this week, too. Jason Wright is already getting some work in behind Dunn and would play a prominent role if the Falcons rest their starters this week. The Seahawks defense isn't all that good so he might be a solid sleeper as a pick up and play option. Dorsey Levens & Reno Mahe (Phi) - FB/RB Thomas Tapeh could also figure into the mix, but look for the Eagles to rest Brian Westbrook the last week of the season with Dorsey Levens probably getting a bulk of the carries and Mahe/Tapeh also getting some touches on 3rd downs, etc. The Bengals run defense is a solid matchup on paper, but they've tightened up their defense overall in the 2nd half of the season and they might be considered more of a neutral matchup this coming week. Cedric Cobbs (NE) - The Patriots are locked and loaded for the playoffs. Kevin Faulk was held out in week 15 because of injury and Corey Dillon could be limited this week as the Patriots begin to focus on the playoffs. They won't risk an injury to Dillon, and I'd be surprised if he plays more than a half or if he plays at all in week 17. If Dillon is rested, look for Cedric Cobbs to be main ball carrier against a soft 49ers run defense. The result might be a nice story for Cobbs. If he's given the full workload I wouldn't rule out 100+ yards and a TD or two. Verron Haynes & Willie Parker (Pit) - The Steelers will probably keep Duce Staley out of this game and they very well could limit how many touches Jerome Bettis gets. I suspect that Haynes could get the bulk of the workload this week against the Bills tough run defense with Willie Parker spelling him. Haynes would certainly be worth starting in most situations like this, but the Bills are a tough customer. Haynes did well spelling Bettis against the Ravens and the Steelers have shown they can run the ball pretty well against anyone, so don't count Haynes out simply because it's a tough matchup. He could surprise. He rushed for 62 yds on 8 carries against B-more. Not bad at all. Najeh Davenport & Tony Fisher (GB) - The Packers continue to spell Ahman Green frequently giving Davenport anywhere from 4 to 10 carries each game and Fisher several opportunities on third downs where he's been proven effective as a receiver. The Packers are in the playoffs and could cruise to a win over the Bears next week prompting Davenport and Fisher to both see extensive playing time potentially in the 2nd half of this game. Zack Crockett, Justin Fargas, Amos Zereoue & J.R. Redmond (Oak) - The Raiders committee approach effectively kills what little value any one of their backs might otherwise have in fantasy leagues. If you're looking for one player to pluck for the final week off the wire and play you might to with Crockett. He's getting the most carries and most importantly the biggest carries - near the end zone. Otherwise, Fargas is getting some opportunities to run the ball while Zereoue and Redmond primarily are utilized more as receivers. Dominic Rhodes (Ind) - The Colts face a desperate Broncos team that's hoping to make the playoffs with a home victory. If Edge is given any rest than Rhodes could see as much as half the carries this week. I've read absolutely nothing to this point that would lead me to believe this will happen, but I'm merely speculating it could. Be prepared either way if you're counting on Edge next week or if you are sitting on Rhodes as a bench player. Jesse Chatman (SD) - Chatman has also been slowed by injuries so it remains to be seen if he'll get more touches in the final game of the season so the Chargers can protect their #1 asset - LaDainian Tomlinson. The opponent is the Chiefs, so if Chatman starts or gets a lot of touches he could easily produce 100 yards and a TD like he's done already this year in relief of LT. Anthony Thomas (Chi) - A free agent at the end of the season, the A-Train will have a new home in 2005 and could be in the mix for a starting job. He's been an effective ball carrier for the Bears when he's been given a chance. On a better team Thomas could literally be a steal. He's undervalued, but a solid player who doesn't really excel at any one thing, but he's not particularly bad at any one thing either. He'd be a nice fit for a team that likes to run between the tackles and play a physical style of football. Maurice Morris (Sea) - Don't expect Alexander to go anywhere, but in the event he doesn't return to Seattle, Morris remains under contract and he'd certainly benefit whether the Seahawks draft or sign another back to replace Alexander in that circumstance or not. Wide Receivers Koren Robinson (Sea) - Robinson is back but he's splitting time with Jerry Rice. Depending on what happens with the playoff scenarios and other teams winning/losing - it's likely the Seahawks could be playing a defense whose heart isn't in the game next week. Robinson is looking to make a mark since his return, so maybe - just maybe - there's a chance he sneaks into the end zone or makes a big play this week. Lee Mays (Pit) - The Steelers could give Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress a rest leading to significantly more playing time for Mays. Michael Jenkins & Jimmy Farris (Atl) - Keeping with the expectations that the Falcons will rest most of their starters, Jenkins and Farris could venture to gain plenty of playing time and put up some numbers against the Seahawks. Freddie Mitchell, Greg Lewis & Billy McMullen (Phi) - Ditto for the Eagles and their WRs. No Owens and they might as well have no Pinkston. Mitchell stands to gain the most, while I particularly like Greg Lewis the most over the last two weeks as a legitimate sleeper. McMullen becomes the wild card and could get a few opportunities as well. Kassim Osgood & Bobby Shaw (SD) - McCardell was held out again this week and we might expect the Chargers to take it easy with him and Eric Parker the last week of the season. Osgood has shown plenty of promise with his great size and ability as a possession WR and big play target down the sidelines. Shaw hasn't played much since signing with the Chargers mid-season, but you might consider him a deep sleeper in this last week of the season. Patrick Crayton (Dal) - This rookie has developed nicely for Parcells and he caught the game-winning TD this week against the arch-rival Redskins. In a non-playoff season that's enough to catapult this unknown player to cult status amongst Cowboy fans. He's still a major reach as a fill-in fantasy WR right now, but he could continue to develop for the Cowboys and play a bigger role next season possibly. Growth stocks Darius Watts (Den) - Watts has already showed some incredible skill as a rookie. He's got excellent hands and route running ability, but he's been inconsistent at times dropping easy passes while making tough ones look easy. Rod Smith remains at the top of his game and Ashley Lelie finally developed into the big play threat everyone expected in 2004. If Lelie and Watts both continue to improve then Jake Plummer figures to once again be a solid fantasy QB next year. Watts might not blossom for a couple years though. When/if Rod Smith is gone then Watts has the potential to be a top 10 fantasy WR, but that's probably not going to happen until 2006. Rashaun Woods (SF) - It's too early to tell what will go down in the Bay this off-season with the 49ers coaching staff, QB situation and everything else. What we do know is the 49ers have a lot of young WRs already on the team with Woods, Brandon Lloyd, Derrick Hamilton and Arnaz Battle - not to mention Cedrick Wilson who is more like a veteran when compared to the others. Woods, Lloyd, Hamilton and Battle appear to be the front runners in terms of dynasty league potential, though quite honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they signed a veteran play maker to come in either. If the 49ers get their offensive line fixed this off-season and get consistent QB play, then one or two of these young WRs will be worth a gamble next year. Devery Henderson (NO) - Henderson is a player who could develop into an outstanding fantasy WR, but there's a big IF that comes with that statement. In Henderson's case that IF is whether or not he develops the ability to get off the line at the NFL level. Can he deal with a physical corner who will knock him off his route or slow him at the line of scrimmage with good bump techniques? If he gets open though, good night defense. Henderson flat out has elite speed. He produced many huge plays at LSU and complimented the more physical Michael Clayton well, but he failed to do anything as a rookie with the Saints. As a home-town player I'm sure the Saints would love to see him develop quickly and get on the field alongside Stallworth and Horn. That trio would create some serious mismatches with speed and Horn's ability to get open underneath quickly. Henderson remains a project, but if he pans out, it will be like hitting a home run with a last round pick similar to Nate Burleson this year. Johnnie Morant (Oak) - Coming out of Syracuse, many considered Morant something of a tease from a scouting perspective. He's got tremendous physical attributes. Great size, speed, leaping ability and nice-sized hands, too. But for whatever reason he's never put it all together on the field and produced big-time numbers. Al Davis obviously saw something he liked because he drafted him, and while he's whiffed at a lot of fast balls in recent years, I'll always put a little bit of weight into the players Davis gambles on. Morant and Carlos Francis will both be given more opportunities to shine in 2005. Don't expect Jerry Porter to return no matter what kind of rhetoric is being spewed from his agent or the Raiders. From what I'm hearing, he's already packing his bags for Tampa, but we'll see. Regardless, Ron Curry is a stud in the making for 2005 with Doug Gabriel likely to develop into a decent #2 WR and adequate deep threat. Injuries happen though and Morant or the lightning-quick Francis could be highlight film players next pre-season and bear watching in deeper dynasty leagues. Samie Parker (KC) - The diminutive WR had made some nice plays on the field the past two weeks since Johnnie Morton has been injured. The team will work with him and hope he emerges as a player in 2005 because the Chiefs would love to get more production then they've gotten at WR. Eddie Kennison played well this year after a slow start due to injuries, but the Chiefs will probably never get a good return on the contract they signed Johnnie Morton to a couple years back. Expect WR to be a position of value to them in the draft and/or free agency as they work behind to scenes to get Parker ready for a bigger role in '05 either way. Tyrone Calico (Ten) - Oh what might have been... think about Drew Bennett's success this year and then consider how much more raw, physical talent Calico has over Bennett. Had Jeff Fisher not gotten cute and ran a reverse in the pre-season, then Calico might have been the breakout WR of 2004 - but that honor is instead bestowed upon his teammate Drew Bennett, who seized the opportunity created by Calico's absence. If Calico rebounds from his severe knee injury he could be worthwhile in 2005, but he's got a long road ahead and he might not be 100% until 2006, if ever. Reggie Williams & Ernest Wilford (Jac) - These two rookie WRs have shown flashes of their physical talents at various times this season, but expect both to take strides next year and potentially fill bigger roles. Williams has developed slower than some would've thought. He's got great size and good speed, but he lacks explosive speed and doesn't make the kind of quick cuts that help WRs separate themselves from coverage. That might come with experience, but it's led to some scouts beginning to doubt his real potential in the NFL as a "go to WR". We shall see. One thing is for sure, it's far too early to throw in the towel on him. With Leftwich at QB and Jimmy Smith on the other side, Williams won't have many excuses heading into his 2nd and then 3rd seasons. If he doesn't show anything by then, he's a bust. Wilford is an excellent red zone WR much like the Ravens Clarence Moore, only much much tougher and more physical. Tight Ends Growth stocks It's a poker player's delight amongst TE sleeper prospects for next year. It's a "four of a Ben"! Ben Troupe (Ten) - Should be the Titans top TE next year in receptions, yards and TDs. An elite talent on par with other athletic, pass-catching targets like Alge Crumpler, Randy McMichael and Jason Witten. Expect Troupe to develop quickly in his 2nd season as a possible top 10 fantasy TE in 2005. Ben Watson (NE) - Watson has excellent speed and athleticism for his position, but he's been long on workout performances and just a hair short on production on the field. Watson's rookie season was cut short by injury but he started showing glimpses of his ability as a receiver to split the defensive seams and make big plays down the field. Watson will pair with Daniel Graham next season to give the Patriots a sick pair of TEs. Both could score 5+ TDs next season and Watson could develop into a top 15 talent as soon as next season, perhaps at the cost of Graham, but I'd expect both players to be frustratingly productive, if not in alternating fashion week to week. Ben Hartsock & Ben Utecht (Ind) - The Colts have a pair of rookie TEs from the Big Ten that are big, strong and fairly mobile as receivers. Marcus Pollard is nearing the end of the rope in his stay with the Colts simply due to the contractual demands of a salary cap squeeze and the development of top pick Dallas Clark. Clark will continue to improve and looks like a strong bet for a top 5 to top 10 fantasy TE in 2005, but look for one of these two to develop as sleepers who could crack the top 15 or top 20 if Pollard isn't back in 2005. I may be slightly off-base here, but I could swear Pollard is a free agent in the off-season or there's a good chance he'll get waived before a contract bonus kicks in.. something like that. If I'm wrong, I'm sure I'll hear about it. Regardless, Utecht and Hartsock are players to watch during the off-season and next July and August. Utecht would've been a first day draft pick but he was out all season because of injury. The Colts wisely signed him as a UDFA and he spent the whole season on the PUP list. Mike Seidman (Car) - Seidman has shown flashes of his potential to develop into the starting TE for the Panthers, but Kris Mangum has done nothing to relinquish the starting job either. Both players have performed well for the Panthers, but look for Seidman and rookie Michael Gaines to make strides in this off-season with Mangum probably getting pushed for the job heading into next season. Defense / Special Teams If you are looking for a sleeper player among the free agent defenses likely to be available in your league here's some to consider. Houston Texans - Browns are 0-7 on the
road and the Texans defense shut out the Jags
last week Collegiate Prospects for Dynasty Leagues Here's a guess-timate of the incoming NFL draft class and an early attempt to rank them without knowing what underclassman will return for their senior years and which ones will opt for the NFL. At any rate, this is far from complete and not meant to be a literal "ranking". I'm sure I've overlooked at least a few players in compiling this list and it will definitely change as players emerge when we get closer to the NFL combine and everyone becomes overly sensitive to 40 yard dash times. If Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams were successful in their bid to enter the NFL last year we might also have other ineligible but sensational talents to get excited about like Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Michael Hart, Danny Ware, Lynell Hamilton and many others. The players are loosely ranked in terms of how I'd look at them as draft worthy players in a dynasty league rookie draft. I tend to rank RBs higher than other positions because they take less time to develop or get an opportunity. QBs tend to take 3-4 years unless they are cut from the same clothe as Ben Roethlisberger, not many are. WRs can take anywhere from 1 or 2 years to 3 or 4 years depending on the talent around them, their own talent obviously and how many veterans they have on their NFL team. WRs with less talent can develop much quicker as fantasy players because some teams have little veteran talent at WR and draft players with the expectation of immediate contributions. Think of Nate Burleson and Deion Branch - two players who developed quicker than the players drafted ahead of them. 1. RB Ronnie Brown, Auburn, Sr |
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