This weekend (August 22nd) I was invited to present alongside a series of other speakers at a fantasy football convention sponsored by Pittsburgh's ESPN Radio affiliate (WTAE 1250 AM). The event, an all day affair in its second year, was a rousing success and I was happy to participate. Everyone on the ESPN Radio staff attended to my every need and handled themselves in a professional and courteous manner. Although I would like to think that the attendees were there to hear my musings on "Overvalued and Undervalued Players in 2004," I would imagine that another speak, ESPN's John "The Professor" Clayton, was the bigger draw, as hard as that may be to believe.

In any event, John Clayton, one of ESPN's main on-air NFL personalities, had just completed a 19-team cross country journey of NFL training camps, and was the feature keynote speaker at the event. Clayton presented for 2 hours, and let me tell you, he did not come up for air. While I expected him to be chock full of knowledge, it was remarkable to see the energy he brought for 120 minutes straight. He began his presentation with a 30-40 minute overview of innumerable hot button issues around the league and then fielded questions from the crowd. Had I to do the event over again, I would have opted to present BEFORE Clayton rather than AFTER, because in his two hours, he covered just about every conceivable player on your fantasy radar. In addition to Clayton's 2-hour scheduled presentation, he was kind enough to spend time with me on a one-on-one basis which allowed me to cover a myriad of topics, and his unassuming and gracious manner was appreciated.

Without further ado, here are some of the tidbits that were discussed at Sunday's event. Given the timeliness of this information, and the fact that we're deep into everyone's draft season, we wanted to get these nuggets of fantasy gold to you as soon as humanly possible.

....Just another piece to the puzzle of helping you dominate your league

RUNNING BACK TIDBITS

• RB LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) improved his skill set in the offseason - Tomlinson is bigger, stronger and more explosive this year if that is at all possible. He spent the offseason isolating what he felt were his flaws, which included improving his core strength, working on his sprint speed and catching passes out wide. The team intends to use him in more versatile ways this year, not unlike the way St. Louis utilized Marshall Faulk during the team's Super Bowl years.
  
  Our Thoughts: No surprise here, the only debate you should be having is whether LaDainian Tomlinson or Priest Holmes warrants your top pick, but LT2 should go no worse than 2nd in most leagues.
  
  
• RB Clinton Portis (WAS) will be a Pro Bowler in Washington this year - Portis is a unique talent who can flourish in any system. Joe Gibbs isn't satisfied with the play of the offense as a whole, but has nothing but praise for Portis.
  
  Our Thoughts: The Pro Bowl would be nice, but we all care more about his fantasy production. The loss of T Jon Jansen warranted dropping Portis to 6th in our latest projections, but he's solidly entrenched as an early first round pickup.
  
  
• RB Quentin Griffin (DEN) will be the starter in Denver - Quentin Griffin is the starting running back "without question" in Denver. Shanahan has given Griffin the role from the start, and Q-Dog has done nothing to dissuade Shanahan's vote of confidence. Clayton noted that Griffin has his weight up to 202 pounds; which isn't much different than the weight Barry Sanders played.
  
  Our Thoughts: We currently project Griffin to get 52% of the Denver RB workload (220 carries), and there may be upside to that according to Clayton IF Griffin manages to build on his opportunity out of the gate.
  
  
• RB Tatum Bell (DEN) has a long road ahead of him - Clayton contends Tatum Bell is buried on the Broncos depth chart. He's "in Shanahan's doghouse" for a litany of reasons and his injury has not made it easy for him to climb back into the coaching staff's good graces. Clayton contends that Garrison Hearst is the team's backup and 3rd down back, and Bell won't see the field much at all in the 1st half barring injury to Griffin.
  
  Our Thoughts: Although we still think Bell's talent gives him the chance to be Denver's lead back at some point in his career, it would seem his hold out and subsequent injury have put him behind the 8-ball for the 2004 season; at least at the outset.
  
  
• RB Tyrone Wheatley (OAK) will be the lead back in Oakland - Tyrone Wheatley is all but assured of being Oakland's lead back. The team believes he can provide a steady level of production; meaning 1,000+ yards. Wheatley shouldn't be considered capable of a huge season, but he's been the steadiest producer in camp and is the best fit for Norv Turner's system. Justin Fargas is in the lead for the backup/change of pace role.
  
  Our Thoughts: Our latest projections have Wheatley toting the rock 190 times for 760 yards; good enough for RB31. If Clayton is right, clearly there is upside to our projection. That said, we're comfortable for fantasy purposes that he be considered a third running back in 10- and 12-team leagues.
  
  
• RB Chris Brown (TEN) has been impressive - The Titans coaching staff has been impressed with Chris Brown, particularly in the level of explosiveness he brings to the table versus Eddie George. The team expects Brown to "easily" exceed George's production on a per carry basis, and the team is confident that Brown can carry a heavy workload. Antowain Smith does not appear a threat to take away carries as long as Brown remains healthy.
  
  Our Thoughts: It's difficult not to get excited about Chris Brown's situation this year. The Titans ran Eddie George an average of 340 times per season during his career. Although we're not projecting Brown for that heavy a workload, his upside certainly appears measurable and Brown could be an excellent RB2 option who's available after round 2.
  
  
• RB Kevan Barlow (SF) could be the surprise top 5 RB of the season - Clayton singled out Barlow as a running back who most likely will ascend into the top 5 at his position this year. He pointed out that although the 49ers are undergoing a lot of change, the offensive line appears solid, that Barlow has the size, speed combination needed to be elite, that he's more mature off and on the field, and will get the ball a ton.
  
  Our Thoughts: Barlow ranks 8th in our latest projections just behind the more established performers. He has all the tools to be a fantasy force and you shouldn't hesitate in making him your 1st round pick if you pick in the 2nd half of your draft.
  
  
• RB Jamal Lewis (BAL) will play the majority of the season - Clayton pointed out that Jamal Lewis has the same attorney that Ray Lewis used during his legal woes a few years ago, and that people shouldn't be concerned about Lewis missing too much time, if at all.
  
  Our Thoughts: We're not lawyers (well, two of us are) but Jamal Lewis is too talented to not consider in the first round whether or not he misses a game or two.
  
  
• RB Lee Suggs (CLE) will be the lead runner in Cleveland - Clayton was emphatic that Suggs would be the guy in Cleveland; calling into question some of the other published reports that it's been an even battle. He noted that Butch Davis has publicly maintained a positive outlook for William Green, but that's more about getting Green's confidence back after his troublesome road the last few years. Internally the team believes Suggs is the better back, and they're prepared to give him the preponderance of the workload.
  
  Our Thoughts: This information is interesting in what has been a confusing situation this offseason. Clearly Lee Suggs preseason performance this past weekend means more people than not expect him to be the main guy, but if Suggs falls because people in your league think he's going to split carries, this is a back you want to focus on.
  
  
• RB Travis Henry (BUF) will start, RB McGahee (BUF) isn't 100% back nor will he be traded - Clayton said McGahee is way off base asking for a trade nor is he ready to overtake Henry. McGahee has taken steps back but Henry remains the superior player in every respect. Additionally, Clayton noted that Henry's rib injury was not considered severe according to his conversation with GM Tom Donahoe.
  
  Our Thoughts: If new HC Mike Mularkey runs the ball as much as he did in Pittsburgh, there are plenty of carries for both backs. But, Henry has done nothing to justify losing his job and remember, looking back in NFL history it's difficult if not impossible to find someone with Henry's production, still healthy, losing his job to a younger RB.
  
  
• RB Travis Minor (MIA) looks to be the opening day starter - Clayton said the Dolphins appear comfortable going with Travis Minor as the opening week starter, but other personnel men around the league think it's a bad idea. Clayton doesn't believe Minor has what it takes to handle a heavy workload, and doesn't believe opposing defenses will respect the ground game; instead doubling WR Chris Chambers and effectively shutting down the offense.
  
  Our Thoughts: In what looks to be a disastrous situation offensively, we currently project Minor to carry the heaviest workload among the collection of RBs currently on the roster; but don't see Minor as an every week fantasy contributor regardless.
  
  
• RB Warrick Dunn (ATL) a better fit in Atlanta than T.J. Duckett (ATL) - New offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has immediately taken to Warrick Dunn, who should (contrary to some opinions) carry the heavier workload than Duckett this season. Duckett does not appear to be a good fit for Knapp's West Coast offense, and appears dejected by the realization of another year as a part-time player.
  
  Our Thoughts: Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett could not be more different in their skill sets. We admit, if Clayton's analysis is correct, our projections for Duckett and Dunn may be a bit too close together and would recommend some caution on drafting Duckett based on this news.
  
  
• RB Michael Bennett (MIN) is the go-to RB in Minnesota, but not because he's the most talented RB on the team - The Minnesota Vikings coaching staff actually believes Onterrio Smith is the most talented back on the roster, and Clayton has little doubt that on most teams Smith could be a 1,400+ yard rusher. However, his off the field issues and a lack of maturity have made the decision to rely on Michael Bennett an easy one. Bennett has recaptured his Olympic-caliber speed and will be the Vikings work horse; without question.
  
  Our Thoughts: Bennett ranks 14th in our latest projections and we're confident in our projection of 250 carries. The Vikings offensive line is one of the league's best and at season's end, we think talent like Smith won't be kept off the field; but Bennett will be a valuable fantasy RB2.
  
  
• RB Duce Staley (PIT) will be the primary RB in Pittsburgh - Upon watching Duce Staley play the 3rd down back roll while Bettis got the majority of 1st team carries, I expressed some confusion to Clayton about what I saw. He stated emphatically that Cowher wanted to give Bettis some work in the preseason but that when the season begins, Duce will be the lead RB, not a 3rd down back.
  
  Our Thoughts: If there's one team the Professor should have a handle on, it's the Steelers. The Pittsburgh native spoke with Staley and Cowher after Saturday's game and relied his insight the following day. We expect Staley to finish 19th but believe that he could easily garner more carries than the 215 currently projected.
  
  
• RB Kevin Jones (DET) will - eventually - be the best RB in Detroit - Kevin Jones has all the talent in the world and should finish 2004 as the Lions lead runner. That said, his hamstring issue has hindered his training camp progress and he may get off to a slow start. It's not out of the question that Shawn Bryson could start the season opener.
  
  Our Thoughts: Every year since 1970, at least one rookie RB has finished among the top 20 fantasy backs. Our projections currently put Kevin Jones 23rd, the highest rated rookie, and our 235 projected carries assumes a slow start to the season. Certainly if his hamstring worries improve sooner rather than later, Jones could significantly exceed current expectations.
  
  
• RB Steven Jackson (STL) is the backup in St. Louis - Jackson looks exactly like Ricky Williams running the ball. He's a very polished blocker for a rookie, and with Lamar Gordon's recent injury, Steven Jackson is the team's backup. Jackson may ultimately not get many carries on a per game basis, but were Marshall Faulk to be injured, it is Jackson who would get the majority of the work in his stead. FB Arlen Harris remains a HC Mike Martz favorite, but isn't explosive enough to justify playing ahead of Jackson.
  
  Our Thoughts: Steven Jackson is the real deal, as we've maintained all preseason. Marshall Faulk won't share the ball much when healthy, but if Jackson gets a shot, he's going to make the most of it.
  
  
• RB Ron Dayne (NYG) shouldn't be considered a serious threat to RB Tiki Barber (NYG)…BUT Barber has to protect the ball - Clayton pointed out what many of us noticed in the Giants latest preseason game. Ron Dayne fumbled the ball on consecutive carries and failed to convert a 3rd and short. Pointedly, Dayne is NOT a punishing between-the-tackles alternative to Barber, despite his build, Dayne is better running in space. That said; Barber cannot afford to fumble repeatedly this year as Coughlin will bench him and find a replacement.
  
  Our Thoughts: Barber is a fumbler, he's fumbled 35 times in the last four seasons, no less than 8 in a season. That said, Dayne isn't much better and is not a superior short yardage runner. With the Giants offensive line issues, both might be better served on another team. Given Barber's prowess as a receiver, we still project him 24th; a solid RB3, questionable RB2.
  
  
• RB Rudi Johnson (CIN) will get the carries, but he's a notch below "elite" status - Clayton suggested that Rudi Johnson looks good but doesn't possess the ability or explosiveness you expect of an elite runner. Chris Perry isn't ready to be more than the 3rd down back however, and thus Johnson will be the man on 1st and 2nd down. He suggested you think of Johnson more as an 1,100-1,200 yard rusher than someone who could approach 1,500 yards.
  
  Our Thoughts: We couldn't agree more; as our latest projections call for Johnson to rush for 1,197 yards and 8 touchdowns. That, along with 200 receiving yards is enough to put Rudi among the top 12 at his position, however. Don't forget about him just because he won't be catching passes on 3rd down.
  
  
• RB Curtis Martin (NYJ) still has plenty left in the tank - Curtis Martin looks great in camp, and backup L. Jordan isn't likely to steal too many carries as long as Martin stays healthy.
  
  Our Thoughts: Remember, when Chad Pennington was in the lineup last year, Martin averaged 4.2 yards per carry and was on pace for 1,500 rushing yards. He remains a viable RB2 that can be had in most drafts a round or two later than his production dictates.

WIDE RECEIVER TIDBITS

• WR Jerry Porter (OAK) and WR Donte Stallworth (NO) finally appear ready to break into the league's elite - Among all Clayton's camp visits, Stallworth and Porter were two of the most impressive young receivers he's seen this year. Porter, as many have projected, is an ideal fit for Norv Turner's offense. Meanwhile Donte Stallworth, could overtake Joe Horn as the top producer in New Orleans this year. Unlike the first two seasons, Stallworth has not been hampered by hamstring woes in camp. Clayton likened Stallworth to Isaac Bruce, who also suffered from recurring hamstring problems early in his career, but once he got through a camp healthy, he's been a stalwart ever since.
  
  Our Thoughts: Porter gets his first shot to start. Stallworth needs to stay healthy. We're more comfortable recommending Porter than Stallworth for those reasons, but acknowledge that Stallworth could be the better value pick given where he's being selected in average drafts.
  
  
• WR Javon Walker has talent, but does he have opportunity? - Walker was the third young receiver who most impressed Clayton this preseason. However, the Packers offense is now predicated on the run rather than the pass, and the GB coaches believe each of the three receivers (Walker, Ferguson & Driver) are in line for 4 to 5 targets per game, hardly enough for Walker to put up huge statistics.
  
  Our Thoughts: The Packers only attempted 474 passes (27th in the NFL) and don't expect that to change much in 2004 barring an injury to Ahman Green. We believe Walker will have the best season of the three Packer receivers, but rank him 24th. You'll probably be better off passing on Walker if he goes earlier because someone bets on his breaking out this year into the top 12-15.
  
  
• WR Chad Johnson should be considered alongside the very best at his position - Whether it's Kitna or Palmer throwing him the ball, Chad Johnson is going to dominate in Clayton's view. He's the complete package, and has become as hard a worker as Jerry Rice was in his prime (Rice is his idol). Johnson has emerged as a vocal leader on the team, and is pushing Kelley Washington to improve. There's no reason Johnson can't have a better year than he enjoyed in 2003.
  
  Our Thoughts: With Carson Palmer starting in Cincinnati, we gave Johnson's numbers a haircut from a year ago; but he still ranks 4th in our latest projections. Johnson is worth an early pick, and could deliver big-time upside if he approaches the level "the Professor" expects.
  
  
• WR Terrell Owens (PHI) appears unstoppable - Terrell Owens is a man possessed, and looks close to unstoppable thus far in preseason. Clayton believes he's going to have a major impact on Donovan McNabb's production and will play at a Pro Bowl level again in 2004. He also expects Owen's presence to benefit Todd Pinkston, because opposing teams have to double Owens the majority of the time or they'll be burned.
  
  Our Thoughts: We're right with Clayton on this one, Owens ranks 5th in our latest projections.
  
  
• WR Plaxico Burress (PIT) looks more like the 2002 version (8th ranked fantasy receiver) than the 2003 version - Burress reported to camp in fantastic shape and looks every bit the player who dominated in 2002. He's no doubt motivated by his contract year; but whatever the reasons his focus and play stand to benefit the Steelers (and fantasy owners).
  
  Our Thoughts: Burress is the prototypical receiver and we saw what he could do two seasons ago. The team's poor showing last year coupled with attitude problems on Burress' part led to massively disappointing results, but in his contract year, with the team's offensive line looking better, Burress has the opportunity to surpass our current expectations. We wouldn't count on him for WR2 production, but he's capable of much more.
  
  
• WR Keenan McCardell (TB) could hold out into the season - McCardell maintains he won't report unless his contract is redone and neither HC Jon Gruden nor GM Bruce Allen has any intention of giving into his demands. They also have no plans to trade him, and will make him sit at home and not collect his $2.5 million salary. The team is fully prepared to enter the season with the current corps of receivers, with rookie Michael Clayton starting opposite Joey Galloway.
  
  Our Thoughts: We continue to project McCardell to play for Tampa Bay sooner rather than later. If he really pushes his luck and doesn't report in the first few weeks, the team may ask him not to report. This is a situation best left avoided unless McCardell falls a few rounds past projected value.
  
  
• WR Marty Booker (CHI) was miscast in Chicago - Clayton said the Bears staff believed Booker was not well suited for Terry Shea's offense and were happy to trade him for what turns out to be one of the best young defensive ends in the league. Booker is better suited to play second fiddle, but Clayton noted that he'll be the 3rd option behind Chambers AND TE Randy McMichael. Being the 3rd option on a passing attack as anemic as the Dolphins is not a recipe for fantasy greatness.
  
  Our Thoughts: Booker would have been the WR1 by default in Chicago, which put him as a decent WR3 at worst, a solid WR2 at best. But in Miami, as the 3rd option, Booker shouldn't be considered a fantasy starter in regularly sized leagues.
  
  
• WR Justin Gage isn't ready to contribute heavily yet - Those who think Justin Gage will step into the lead receiver role in Chicago and flourish probably haven't seen him play in Chicago. He's a talented but unfinished product, and no more likely to make an impact than Bobby Wade.
  
  Our Thoughts: Chicago has a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new lead running back, two new starting receivers and a rebuilt offensive line; to expect a major improvement from 2003 is illogical.
  
  
• WR Brandon Lloyd (SF) is clearly the best receiver in San Francisco - Brandon Lloyd has lived up to early billing and displayed WR1 ability in camp. He's catching everything thrown his way and has made Ken Dorsey look good on some questionable throws.
  
  Our Thoughts: Don't forget about Brandon Lloyd. Someone has to catch passes in San Francisco and Lloyd is the top option. We're not telling you he'll be a bona fide stud this year, but he's in the mix for a top 20-25 showing.
  
  
• WR Koren Robinson has not gotten his act together - Contrary to other reports, Clayton noted that Koren Robinson looks no better than he did last year. He came into camp heavy, was put behind Jerhame Urban to send a message, and hasn't shown improvement holding onto the ball. "He's still a knucklehead" was the comment, whereas WR Darrell Jackson has shown a new level of maturity that gives justification to the Seahawks decision to re-sign him to a huge new deal. Clayton said that Robinson is the most talented receiver in Seattle, but he's not going to be as productive as Jackson for a lot of reasons.
  
  Our Thoughts: As a staff we're pretty split on this issue. We know that both Robinson and Jackson can be WR1 players, but Jackson was the better player last year and has the financial commitment from the team that Robinson doesn't. If Clayton is right (and we've heard differing reports), it will be hard for Robinson to justify our 14th ranking.
  
  
• WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) will be force fed the ball - The Cardinals have no choice but to rely on Fitzgerald this year with Anquan Boldin out for a yet-to-be-determined time frame. Bryant Johnson is a "who cares" player and Nate Poole isn't worthy of significant playing time. Fitzgerald will be put in a similar position to Boldin a year ago, only he benefits from Dennis Green calling the plays.
  
  Our Thoughts: It's tough to expect too much from a rookie WR, even one as touted as Larry Fitzgerald. While our projections put him 28th, he could handily exceed this production if QB McCown targets him as heavily as Clayton predicts.
  
  
• Be cautious about this year's rookie wide receivers - According to Clayton, this year's crop of rookie receivers may be highly regarded, but few look ready to make a major impact at the start of the season.
  • WR Michael Jenkins (ATL) - "He's a ways away from contributing, which is a shame because Dez White doesn't look very good."
  • WR Michael Clayton (TB) - "Clayton is pretty good, he's adjusting faster than most of the rookies and will start the season opener if McCardell isn't on the team."
  • WR Rashaun Woods (SF) - "Stay away from Woods, his injury has significantly limited his development."
  • WR Roy Williams (DET) - The Lions would have selected Roy Williams ahead of Charles Rogers had they both come out in 2003, but this year, Rogers has progressed and is far ahead of Williams right now ("Rogers looks good, VERY good.") The Lions believe Williams has "50 catch" potential this year.
  • WR Lee Evans (BUF) - It's difficult to get a read on Evans at this point, because Josh Reed has answered the challenge and looks quite different from a year ago. The only certainty in Buffalo is that Moulds is WR1.
    
    
• WR Ashley Lelie (DEN) is struggling to justify a spot in the starting lineup - Clayton noted that while in Broncos camp, Ashley Lelie was the subject of Shanahan's ire. The Denver receivers are expected to do a lot of dirty work Shanahan wants them to block more than many teams require, and Lelie simply hasn't embraced that role. Additionally, he continues to drop passes and is a "long strider" that doesn't fit well in this offense.
  
  Our Thoughts: Lelie has steadily moved down our projections despite a glaring opportunity to pick up the slack from Clinton Portis, Shannon Sharpe and Ed McCaffrey.
  
  
• WR Darius Watts (DEN) may start by mid-season, if he learns to block - Darius Watts has impressed the Broncos coaching staff, and needs only to improve on his blocking to be a legitimate threat to displace Lelie in the starting lineup. Unlike Lelie, Watts shows a willingness to improve his blocking technique, and could start by mid season.
  
  Our Thoughts: We may need to seriously reconsider our expectation for Darius Watts; because if he's starting half the season there's no way he'll only catch 25 receptions.
  
  
• WR Nate Burleson (MIN) isn't refined, but could start ahead of WR Marcus Robinson (MIN) - Marcus Robinson has been limited in training camp, and when he's practiced it hasn't been memorable. His absence opened the door for Nate Burleson; who has "great downfield speed" but needs to improve his technique.
  
  Our Thoughts: It's difficult to get excited about either of these players, but according to average draft results, Robinson is going too early for what he'll probably produce. Burleson could be worth a look in deeper leagues as a late round pickup.
  
  
• WR Doug Gabriel (OAK) and WR Ron Curry (OAK) are "suspect" options - Clayton mentioned that neither Curry nor Gabriel should be considered are good enough to play big roles for the Raiders and should either Jerry Rice or Jerry Porter get hurt, the passing game could be in trouble.
  
  Our Thoughts: This is quite contrary to some other published reports, but either way it's not much of a fantasy item as these guys will be role players in 2004, barring injury to the starters.

QUARTERBACK TIDBITS

• QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) looks like the real deal but won't be a factor this season - "Big Ben" has all the physical tools to play in the league, and Clayton believes Roethlisberger will be the 2nd best QB of this class over the course of their careers. However, it was clear in seeing him practice and play on Saturday night that he has a lot of work to do on his footwork. He never planted the same way twice during the game and threw off his back foot too much.
  
  Our Thoughts: We agree that Big Ben is the future in Pittsburgh but Tommy Maddox remains the present.
  
  
• QB Eli Manning (NYG) should and probably will be the starter over QB Kurt Warner (NYG) - Eli Manning has outplayed Warner in training camp and deserves to start based on the merits of their respective performances. That said, Coughlin has kept his decision close to the vest, and he could opt to start Warner in the season opener regardless of what's transpired to this point. Warner's thumb looks to be healed, but he looks shell shocked and has "happy feet" in the pocket; a problem given the state of New York's offensive line.
  
  Our Thoughts: Every thing we've been hearing (and seeing) suggests Manning is the better option. BUT, Coughlin may want a steady veteran presence in there to start the season. For draft purposes, we're projecting Manning to amass about 2/3rds of the teams passing yards this season; but neither should be considered a top 20 fantasy option.
  
  
• QB Trent Green (KC) will be better than he was in 2003 - Clayton believes the Chiefs will be more prolific in the passing game this year with the addition of TE Kris Wilson as an H-Back weapon, a more focused Larry Johnson and another year of experience for everyone in the offensive system. Clayton believes Green could pass for well over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this year, particularly with the rules enforcing illegal contact 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.
  
  Our Thoughts: It's difficult to imagine Green bettering last year's QB4 finish, but he remains a solid QB1 option in 10 and 12 team league's and one of the best pure passers in fantasy football.
  
  
• QB Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) could vie for league MVP - Clayton predicted a Pro Bowl season for Hasselbeck last year and said he's more comfortable in the offense this season. With all the returning weapons, and a favorable schedule, Clayton expects Hasselbeck to be a dark horse candidate for league MVP.
  
  Our Thoughts: Clayton makes his home in Seattle so keep that in mind, but in all seriousness Hasselbeck threw for 3,844 yards and 26 TDs last season as a full time starter despite his WR corps dropping 30 passes. If they cut that number in half, he's a 4,000 yard passer. We current project Hasselbeck to round out the top 5 at his position.
  
  
• QB Byron Leftwich (JAX) is in great shape, but expect an up and down season - Leftwich appears in much better physical condition from a year ago, but his play has been "spotty, uneven" during training camp. Clayton expects Leftwich will be "good and bad in spurts" which is indicative of his inexperience and a still developing receiving corps.
  
  Our Thoughts: Byron Leftwich is among the most talked about "sleepers" at quarterback in many circles, but we believe he'll end the season as among a collection of decent but not exceptional fantasy backups.
  
  
• QB Marc Bulger (STL) is going to have a hard time making it through the season healthy - The Rams offensive line is in abysmal shape, to the point where the team is trying to bring Chris Dishman and Tom Nutten out of retirement. This is a major problem, whether Orlando Pace reports at the end of camp or not, as Kyle Turley is probably done for the season. Clayton complimented Bulger's accuracy and decision making but noted that he's completely immobile and will be hard pressed to survive the pounding he's going to take this year.
  
  Our Thoughts: As a rule, we typically don't try to predict injuries and based on the merits of Bulger's offensive supporting cast and the system, he should approach 4,000 yards passing and finish comfortably among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. We would be remiss to not acknowledge the dire situation of the offensive line and, perhaps as a result, you should let someone else draft Bulger unless the value is too overwhelming.
  
  
• QB Michael Vick (ATL) is going to run less in 2004 than at any point in his career, before and after - The coaching staff, Vick himself and his teammates are all on the same page; that Michael Vick shouldn't run as much as he learns to get comfortable in the pocket. Clayton expects Vick to forcibly stay in the pocket at times this year to become a better passer. Vick told Clayton that he thinks 500 yards rushing is probably the "right amount" because that translates into more passing attempts and fewer rushing attempts. The team has set a goal for Vick to be a 58% passer this year.
  
  Our Thoughts: Saying you're not going to run and doing it are two very different things. Vick is as dangerous an open field runner as any RB in the league and hasn't shown he's more than a 55% passer. We think OC Greg Knapp will help Vick become a better passer, but there are going to be times during the season when the temptation to tuck the ball and run will be too overwhelming to avoid.
  
  
• QB Drew Brees (SD) will be the starter in San Diego for at least the first 8 games due to QB Philip Rivers (SD) holdout - Although Philip Rivers signed on Monday (Clayton spoke on Sunday), he noted at the time that even if Rivers got into camp soon, Brees would open the season as the starter. Rivers is too far behind to throw him to the wolves.
  
  Our Thoughts: The Chargers didn't draft Rivers on a whim; management decided Brees wasn't a franchise caliber quarterback. That said, you can't expect a rookie signal caller to play well without the benefit of training camp and then some. Brees projects into the bottom of our top 30 by virtue of getting the lion's share of the snaps this season.
  
  
• QB Jay Fiedler (MIA) will be the starting QB in Miami, not QB A.J. Feeley (MIA) - Fiedler has outplayed Feeley this camp and as importantly, the team has suffered such devastating turnover offensively that the team dare not risk changing quarterback as well. Feeley has not looked worthy of the 2nd round price tag required to get him from the Eagles, and team officials keep hearing he's a "gamer" (i.e., better in game situations than on the practice field) but are loathe to put that to the test on a team that has zero margin for error.
  
  Our Thoughts: We don't like kicking someone when they're down, and the Dolphins are collectively already pretty well beaten down. While Fiedler starts the season, it wouldn't' surprise us to see the team try Feeley out at some point too. Neither is worth your consideration except in very deep leagues.
  
  
• QB David Carr (HOU) is poised for a "breakout" year - When asked which QB was poised for a breakout season, Clayton didn't hesitate to single out David Carr. He said Carr looks every bit the franchise player the team envisioned when he went 1st overall, and the offensive line looks markedly better than in the team's first two seasons. Clayton said Carr is in line to have the most substantial improvement in both his statistics and the team's winning percentage this year.
  
  Our Thoughts: Carr has steadily moved up our QB rankings this preseason as he's been healthy, the line appears better and Andre Johnson and the passel of other weapons is no longer among the league's worst. We still don't see the team capable of the substantial improvement Clayton is calling for but Carr makes an intriguing backup QB option this year in 10- and 12-team leagues.

MISCELLANEOUS TIDBITS

• Expect all the holdouts to report to the team's before the season opener, with two possible exceptions - Clayton emphatically insisted that nearly all the current hold outs will report before the season starts; with the tagged players signing their one-year tenders. The list of players includes LT Orlando Pace (STL), LT Walter Jones (SEA), LB Julian Peterson (SF), CB Chris McAllister (BAL) and CB Charles Woodson (OAK). The only possible holdouts that could extend into the season are CB Mike McKenzie (GB) and WR Keenan McCardell (TB).
  
  Our Thoughts: The almighty dollar is a powerful motivator, and most of these players would rather swallow their pride than pass up on $6-$9 million. We're not sure McKenzie and McCardell will be willing to forego their paydays either, but Clayton would have a better view into their situations than we would.
  
  
• OT Kyle Turley (STL) possibly done for the year - Early this week, Kyle Turley is to find out the results of his latest tests but early indications are that the back surgery which he underwent this offseason did not correct the problem. It's expected that Turley could need additional surgery that would at a minimum sideline him for the season but could possibly force his retirement.
  
  Our Thoughts: Whatever you may think of Turley's demeanor on the field, it's never a good thing to see one of the league's hardest workers suffer a major setback to his career. This has very big implications on the fantasy landscape if he is indeed lost for the year; the Rams are a potential hotbed of fantasy producers.
  
  
• Pittsburgh's offensive line should be OK without Kendall Simmons, but depth becomes an issue - ORG Kendall Simmons is out for the season, and Keydrick Vincent will get the first crack at replacing him. Clayton said the Steelers coaching staff is comfortable with Vincent in the lineup, but now the team is faced with no depth. Should they befall another major injury, the line would deteriorate to the point of last season, when it was the major impetus for the team's offensive failings.
  
  Our Thoughts: We're not going to argue with the Professor, who had spoken to Russ Grimm and Bill Cowher mere hours before this conversation.
  
  
• St. Louis' offensive line is in shambles - With Orlando Pace holding out, Kyle Turley possibly lost for the season, C Dave Wohlabaugh already release due to injury, the Rams vaunted offensive line has suddenly become a major risk factor for the productivity of Bulger, Faulk and company. The team has no depth, and recently brought back Chris Dishman and Tom Nutten from retirement as stopgap options.
  
  Our Thoughts: Clearly this is something that must be watched. Assume Orlando Pace returns, but it doesn't look promising for his partner on the other side. The offense could be less productive this year with such a patchwork line.
  
  
• Carolina's offensive line appears worse for wear - The team already underwent a massive offseason overhaul as Jeno James and Todd Steussie departed in free agency and Kevin Donnalley retired. But to make matters worse, replacement tackle Adam Meadows also retired, and now his replacement, Matt Willig is out with a knee bruise. Furthermore, Tutan Reyes, the left guard, is hurt and could be out for some time.
  
  Our Thoughts: The Panthers surprised a lot of people last year and that was largely thanks to outstanding line play on both sides of the ball. While the defensive line remains impressive, the offensive line appears a shadow of last year's unit.
  
  
• Minnesota = Top 3 Team in the NFC - Clayton singled out Minnesota by saying that the team's made enough improvements on defense to consider the Vikings "easily among the top 3 teams in the conference."
  
  Our Thoughts: We think the defense will be middle of the pack, which is good enough when you have Culpepper, Moss, Bennett and that offensive line.
  
  
• Jacksonville defense solid IF LBs can pressure the QB - The Jaguars are the en vogue pick among defenses and while that could prove accurate, the team needs help to generate a pass rush. It waived Tony Brackens, again, and Hugh Douglass appears unable to play at the level he was able to while in Philadelphia. As a result, the team plans on relying on the LB corps to generate a pass rush; risky but necessary.
  
  Our Thoughts: Our defensive staff believes the Jaguars will struggle to generate a pass rush this year, projecting 33 sacks, in the bottom third of the league. Overall, the Jaguars are expected to finish 14th.
  
  
• Denver could be a Top-6 defense potentially - The Broncos has internally set the goal to be a top 6 defense, and from what Clayton has seen, it's entirely possible. They have excellent speed at every position, Champ Bailey pulls the secondary together and the defensive line appears better than expected.
  
  Our Thoughts: Denver should be available toward the later part of your drafts, and we currently project them to finish 10th but very little additional production would be required to jump them into the top seven or eight.
  
  
• Seattle is legitimate title contender - If Philadelphia is considered the favorite in the NFC, the Seahawks have to be among the next best contenders in the NFC. The defense has upgraded at key positions, the secondary looks markedly improved and the offense remains sterling at every position.
  
  Our Thoughts: The NFC West appears quite winnable with Arizona decimated by injury (and not that talented to begin with), St. Louis facing injury woes on the line and a suspect defense, and San Francisco rebuilding.