The Stategist - Jason Wood

As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Thoughts on Peyton Manning…

Through nine games, Peyton Manning has 31 touchdown passes and all the talk is about whether or not he’ll break Dan Marino’s all-time single season record of 48 touchdowns (1984). Needless to say, Marino’s dream season stands atop the NFL record books, but it also stands as the single greatest fantasy season by a QB.

Top 20 Fantasy QB Seasons, by Total Fantasy Points

Last Name	First Name	Year	Team	Comp	Att	PassYD	PassTD	INT	Rush	RuYD	RuTD	FFL Points
Marino	Dan	1984	MIA	362	564	5084	48	17	28	-7	0	429
Young	Steve	1998	SF	322	517	4170	36	12	70	454	6	422
Cunningham	Randall	1990	PHI	271	465	3466	30	13	118	942	5	405
Culpepper	Daunte	2000	MIN	297	474	3937	33	16	90	470	7	402
Young	Steve	1994	SF	324	461	3969	35	10	58	293	7	400
Favre	Brett	1995	GB	359	570	4413	38	13	39	181	3	396
Garcia	Jeff	2000	SF	355	561	4278	31	10	71	415	4	393
Marino	Dan	1986	MIA	378	623	4746	44	23	12	-3	0	390
Moon	Warren	1990	HOU	362	584	4689	33	13	55	215	2	387
Warner	Kurt	1999	STL	325	499	4353	41	13	23	92	1	384
Beuerlein	Steve	1999	CAR	343	571	4436	36	15	27	124	2	375
Majkowski	Don	1989	GB	353	599	4318	27	20	75	358	5	370
Warner	Kurt	2001	STL	375	546	4830	36	22	28	60	0	370
Cunningham	Randall	1988	PHI	301	560	3808	24	16	93	624	6	369
Mitchell	Scott	1995	DET	346	583	4338	32	12	36	104	4	367
Favre	Brett	1996	GB	325	543	3899	39	13	49	136	2	364
Lomax	Neil	1984	ARI	345	560	4614	28	16	35	184	3	363
Culpepper	Daunte	2002	MIN	334	551	3859	18	23	105	603	10	362
Gannon	Rich	2002	OAK	417	616	4676	26	10	50	156	3	361
Fouts	Dan	1981	SD	360	609	4802	33	17	22	56	0	361

Nine games into this season, Manning has:

197 completions
296 attempts
2,749 passing yards
31 passing TDs
6 INTs
15 rushes
38 rush yards
259.3 fantasy points

Projecting that over a full 16-game schedule:

350 completions
526 attempts
4,887 passing yards
55 passing TDs
11 INTs
27 rushes
68 rush yards
460.9 fantasy points

Now aside from the fact that Manning would shatter a long-standing mark for TD passes in a season AND set a new single season mark for fantasy production, were he to keep up his current pace he would accomplish a few other notable benchmarks.

1) Best TD-to-Int differential in league history

Manning is on pace for a +44 TD-to-Int differential; which would crush the current record held by (you guessed it) Dan Marino from 1984.

TD-Int Differential, Single Season (All Time)

Rank	Last Name	First Name	Year	Team	PassTD	INT	TD:INT
1	Marino	Dan	1984	mia	48	17	31
2	Warner	Kurt	1999	STL	41	13	28
3	Favre	Brett	1996	gb	39	13	26
4	Favre	Brett	1995	gb	38	13	25
4	Young	Steve	1994	sf	35	10	25
6	Young	Steve	1998	sf	36	12	24
6	Cunningham	Randall	1998	min	34	10	24
8	Tittle	Y.A.	1963	nyg	36	14	22
8	Testaverde	Vinny	1998	nyj	29	7	22
10	Marino	Dan	1986	mia	44	23	21
10	Beuerlein	Steve	1999	car	36	15	21
10	Garcia	Jeff	2000	sf	31	10	21
13	Moon	Warren	1990	HOU	33	13	20
13	Mitchell	Scott	1995	det	32	12	20
13	Garcia	Jeff	2001	sf	32	12	20
13	George	Jeff	1997	OAK	29	9	20
17	Favre	Brett	1997	gb	35	16	19
17	Favre	Brett	1994	gb	33	14	19
17	Moon	Warren	1995	min	33	14	19
17	Anderson	Ken	1981	cin	29	10	19

2) Set a single season record for yards-per-attempt while completing at least 250 passes

Manning is currently averaging 9.3 yards per attempt (YPA); which would surpass Lynn Dickey’s 1983 mark of 9.21 YPA for a QB completing at least 250 passes. Recall that Manning is on pace for 350 completions (and he’s never completed less than 326 passes in a season). He would also join Dan Marino (1984) as the only QB to complete at least 300 passes and have a YPA of greater than 9.

Yards per Attempt, Single Season (Min: 250 Completions)

Last Name	First Name	Year	Team	Comp	Att	PassYD	YPA
Dickey	Lynn	1983	gb	289	484	4458	9.21
Montana	Joe	1989	sf	271	386	3521	9.12
Marino	Dan	1984	mia	362	564	5084	9.01
Warner	Kurt	2001	STL	375	546	4830	8.85
Warner	Kurt	1999	STL	325	499	4353	8.72
Cunningham	Randall	1998	min	259	425	3704	8.72
Young	Steve	1993	sf	314	462	4023	8.71
Young	Steve	1992	sf	268	402	3465	8.62
Young	Steve	1994	sf	324	461	3969	8.61
Fouts	Dan	1985	sd	254	430	3638	8.46
Esiason	Boomer	1986	cin	273	469	3959	8.44
Montana	Joe	1984	sf	279	432	3630	8.40
Everett	Jim	1989	STL	304	518	4310	8.32
Culpepper	Daunte	2000	min	297	474	3937	8.31
Lomax	Neil	1984	ARI	345	560	4614	8.24
Namath	Joe	1967	nyj	258	491	4007	8.16
Kelly	Jim	1991	buf	304	474	3844	8.11
Theismann	Joe	1983	was	276	459	3714	8.09
Young	Steve	1998	sf	322	517	4170	8.07
McNair	Steve	2003	TEN	250	400	3215	8.04

Will Manning break Marino’s record for TD passes in a season?

With seven games left in the season, it’s still far from a certainty that Manning will overtake Marino’s single season TD mark. Simplistic math suggests he’s on pace for 55 TDs (31 TDs in 9 games = 3.444 TDs/Game X 16 Games = 55.11 TDs).

But let’s look a little deeper at Manning’s production relative to the opposing defenses he’s faced, and then compare that level of relative production to his remaining opponents to get a slightly more analytical look into whether Manning will break Marino’s mark.

Through nine games, Manning has thrown 31 TD passes:

Week 1 vs. NE — 2 TDs
Week 2 vs. TEN — 2 TDs
Week 3 vs. GB — 5 TDs
Week 4 vs. JAX — 2 TDs
Week 5 vs. OAK — 3 TDs
Week 7 vs. JAX — 3 TDs
Week 8 vs. KC — 5 TDs
Week 9 vs. MIN — 4 TDs
Week 10 vs. HOU — 5 TDs
TOTAL — 31 TDs

Over the course of the entire season, Manning’s first eight opponents (he played JAX twice) allowed a total of 125 TD passes:

New England — 8 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Tennessee — 12 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Green Bay — 20 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Jacksonville — 11 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Oakland — 19 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Kansas City — 17 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Minnesota — 15 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Houston — 23 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
TOTAL — 125 TD passes allowed (72 games played)

Looking at Manning relative production:

Manning (31 TDs in 9 games) = 3.444 TDs/Game Scored
Opponents (125 TDs in 72 games) = 1.736 TDs/Game Allowed
Relative Ratio = 1.984 (3.444 / 1.736)

To be clear, Peyton Manning is averaging 98.4% more TD production on average than his opponents typically allow.

Now let’s take a look at the ratios for his remaining opponents:

Chicago — 10 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Detroit — 14 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Tennessee — 12 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Houston — 23 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Baltimore — 6 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
San Diego — 11 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
Denver — 6 TD passes allowed (9 games played)
TOTAL — 82 TD passes allowed (63 games played)

This equates to an average of 1.302 TD passes allowed per game; a much stauncher set of pass defenses than Manning’s first nine opponents. If we accept that Manning can maintain his relative rate of production against his next seven opponents, we can project his TD output in the final seven games to be:

Remaining Opponents (82 TDs in 63 games) = 1.302 TDs/Game Allowed
Relative Ratio = 1.984
Projected TD passes per game (1.302 X 1.984) = 2.582 TD passes per game

Over seven games, that would equate to:

7 Games
2.582 TDs passes per game
18.1 TD passes

Based on Manning maintaining his current RELATIVE rate of TD pass production versus what his remaining opponents currently yield, Manning will throw for another 18 TD passes in the final 7 games.

So the final verdict says…

If Peyton Manning continues his current pace (i.e., throwing almost 98% more TD passes than his opponents typically allow); he will finish this season with a grand total of of 49 touchdown passes, just barely surpassing Dan Marino’s all-time single season record.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

1 point per 20 yards passing
1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
4 points per passing TD
6 points per rushing or receiving TD
-1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues