As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Tight End Musings…

This is turning out to be quite a year for the tight end position; from Antonio Gates’ record-setting pace to journeymen like Mark Campbell and Steve Heiden enjoying 3-TD games.  An influx of talented pass-catching options has changed the face of the position; and this year thanks to a combination of stricter enforcement of downfield contact rules and the overuse of Cover-2 defensive schemes we’ve seen an explosion of production from the position.

Antonio Gates was on many “sleeper” lists this season, but no one could have predicted the performance he’s put together through Week 12. Through 11 games, Gates has:

• 69 receptions
• 795 yards
• 11 touchdowns
• 145.5 fantasy points 

Over the full 16-game schedule, this projects to:

• 100 receptions (1^st all-time)
• 1,156 yards (8^th all-time)
• 16 touchdowns (1^st all-time)
• 211.6 fantasy points (1^st all-time) 

Were Gates to maintain his current pace, he would break the single-season mark for fantasy points by a tight end, held by Dave Parks (San Francisco, 1965).  And Gates isn’t alone in his success, three tight ends (Gates included) are on pace for seasons that would rank among the 20 best in NFL history.

 All-Time Single-Season Fantasy Points (Tight End)

** Based on statistics through Week 12, projected over full 16-game season

Tight Ends with at least 60 receptions…

There are eight tight ends on pace for at least 60 receptions this year, which would set a new NFL record. The previous record stands at 6, which occurred three times (1984, 1985, 2000).

Tight Ends Projected to have at least 60 receptions, 2004 Season

Tight Ends with at least 100 fantasy points…

There are eight tight ends on pace for over 100 fantasy points, which would break the old record of seven in a season; which occurred in 1984 and 1985.

Tight Ends Projected to have at least 100 fantasy points, 2004 Season

VBD Analysis: Tight Ends are providing tremendous value

One of the core tenets of our Footballguys draft strategy is Value-Based Drafting. If you’re reading this column you’re no doubt familiar with the concept; so we won’t spend time outlining it here (although there are many excellent articles on the concept of Value-Based Drafting found on the site, in the Articles Section).

Through Week 12, here are the VBD X-Values of the top 75 players:

As you can see, tight ends have offered significant value this year, with Gates currently sitting 5^th among all position players. Three of the top 15, five of the top 30 and 7 of the top 50 players (on a VBD value basis) are tight ends.

Overlaying Draft Position further enhances TE value…

While X-Values provide a way to compare the relative performance of players at all positions, ultimately the key to having a dominant fantasy draft is securing players who OUTPERFORM their draft position. With that in mind, let’s compare these top tight ends current X-Values with their 2004 average draft position.

Differential between Average Draft Position and Current VBD Rank (through Week 12)

The way you should read this chart is that the higher the differential, the better the draft pick. For example, Antonio Gates was, on average, the 106^th player selected in 10- and 12-team leagues this year; but he’s currently the 5^th best in terms of VBD. So he’s outperforming his expected value by 101 slots. The highest TE on this list is Eric Johnson, who was virtually undrafted in most 10- and 12-team leagues, but currently sits 37^th in overall VBD value.

To summarize, if current trends hold, 2004 will mark:

• A new single season record for receptions by a TE (100, Antonio Gates)
• A new single season record for TDs by a TE (16, Antonio Gates)
• A new single season record for fantasy points by a TE (211.6, Antonio Gates)
• 8 TEs with 60+ receptions; a new record
• 8 TEs with at least 100 fantasy points; a new record
• Three of the top 15 VBD slots going to TEs, and five of the top 30 slots; both records

The NFL is very much a “me-too” league where if something works, other teams will latch onto the concept until the idea has become saturated (think the “West Coast offense”). When Tony Gonzalez emerged (followed by Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap), teams began to re-think how they utilized their tight ends, and what type of players were best put into that position. The result is a litany of young, talented tight ends who are making an impact on real NFL fields as well as fantasy lineups.

When you consider the record setting pace of the 2004 season, you also need to remember that the majority of these players are in the earliest stages of their careers. Barring injury, they will be important cogs offensively for years to come. And remember that we haven’t even seen Kellen Winslow, Jr. produce, nor was Todd Heap a factor because of injuries this season.

In any event, as someone who historically dismissed the concept of putting time and effort into the TE position on draft day, I predict that after this season, TEs will be hot commodities in next year’s drafts. The trick will be to isolate the handful of play makers that fall through the cracks. If tradition holds true and most tight ends don’t start going off the board until the 8^th, 9^th, 10^th rounds, it will be a no-brainer for savvy fantasy owners to prioritize landing one of these young guns midway through your draft; you don’t want to be left out in the cold at this position any longer.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 20 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues