As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Did you get "Bennettized?"…

Three weeks ago, Drew Bennett was just another decent receiver for a floundering Titans team. Through eleven games Bennett had amassed 654 yards, 48 receptions and just two touchdowns. And then things started getting crazy…

• Week 13 - 3 receptions, 124 yards, 3 touchdowns - Bennett scores on every reception, and likely causes a few upsets in deeper fantasy leagues
• Week 14 - 12 receptions, 233 yards, 3 touchdowns - Bennett absolutely annihilates many a fantasy league, putting up one of the single best scores by a wide receiver in NFL history, topping the 50 point mark in leagues that reward 1 pt per reception
• Week 15 - 13 receptions, 160 yards, 2 touchdowns - Proving he's not a fluke, Bennett does more damage, this time in the fantasy playoffs in nearly any league, with another enormous score

In our annual Footballguys staff league, Week 14 marked the end of the regular season. Dave Shick, my fellow Footballguy, won our division handily but did lose his Week 14 matchup to yours truly thanks to the ungodly performance by Bennett. In any event, I sent Shick a congratulatory e-mail on his division title, and he replied back with a remark about being "Bennettized" by me. Now, I don't have the Oxford English Dictionary memorized, but I'm fairly certain the word "Bennettized" has yet to pass the lexicographer's muster. But there's little doubt that anyone that's played fantasy football long enough knows exactly what Shick meant. Drew Bennett is the kind of player who comes out of nowhere and puts together a monster performance (or two); particularly in a key late season week when playoff spots, seeds or wins are up for grabs.

So with the year winding down, I thought it would be fun to look back at some of the other performances that could have resulted in someone getting "Bennettized" in recent years. They happen every season (Marcel Shipp anyone?) and are often the reason a number one seed fails to win their Fantasy Bowl; because lower seeded playoff entrants are more likely to take chances with their lineups.

First, let's set some parameters. By virtue of our database, I'm only going back to 1995. Second, players who were studs throughout much of the season do not qualify. No one should be surprised when Marshall Faulk or Steve Young enjoys a huge game. Third, I've limited the list to performances occurring in Weeks 14-17. This is the time when most leagues are playing out the playoffs and battling in the final weeks of their regular season for seeding and playoff berths.

"Bennettized" by RBs

1) Corey Dillon, CIN, 1997 (Week 14 vs. the Oilers)

• 39 carries for 246 yards
• 2 recs for 30 yards
• 4 touchdowns
• 51.6 fantasy points

  Although we consider Dillon a stud today, 1997 was his rookie year. Up until his Week 14 outing, Dillon had been solid but not spectacular, breaking 100 yards only twice through 11 previous games. He had scored a touchdown in five of the previous six games and was the unquestioned starter, so there's no doubt many opposing fantasy teams faced Dillon's wrath on that day.

2) Marcel Shipp, ARI, 2002 (Week 15 vs. STL)

• 27 carries for 96 yards
• 2 receptions for 79 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 35.5 fantasy points

  I was personally the beneficiary of Shipp's improbable day in a key semifinal match up. Shipp had emerged as a fringe fantasy back by mid season, but certainly wasn't someone you could reasonably expect to propel you to a fantasy title. However, he caught lightning in a bottle against a shell shocked Rams team and scored 3 times while amassing nearly 180 yards from scrimmage.

3) Dominic Rhodes, IND, 2001 (Week 14 vs. ATL)

• 29 carries for 177 yards
• 3 receptions for 11 yards
• 2 touchdowns
• 30.8 fantasy points

  When Edgerrin James tore his knee, unheralded rookie free agent Dominic Rhodes stepped into the starting role. In his six starts prior to the Week 14 explosion, Rhodes acquitted himself well with a pair of 100 yard outings and four touchdowns, but few could have (or did) predict he had a 177 yard rushing effort in him.

4) William Green, CLE, 2002 (Week 17 vs. ATL)

• 27 carries for 178 yards
• 2 receptions for 9 yards
• 2 touchdowns
• 30.7 fantasy points

  William Green was supposed to be a stud, every down running back for Cleveland. As a rookie, he got off to a miserably slow start but put together a very solid second half (which we now know was the exception not the rule). From Weeks 11 through 17, Green had at least 20 carries in every game. However, in key weeks 15 and 16 Green managed only 151 combined yards from scrimmage; making it a very risky proposition to start him in a Week 1 final. But those who did so were justly rewarded with an outstanding game.

5) Tim Biakabatuka, CAR, 1998 (Week 15 vs. WAS)

• 17 carries for 103 yards
• 2 receptions for 71 yards
• 2 touchdowns
• 29.4 fantasy points

  Biakabatuka hardly played during the 1998 season, logging his first carry in Week 11. However, he managed 22 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown in Week 14, and that likely put him on the radar for desperate fantasy owners needing a shot in the arm for Week 15. Those who chanced starting him were rewarded with his first 100 yard rushing game of the season AND his first multi-TD game.

"Bennettized" by WRs

1) Qadry Ismail, BAL, 1999 (Week 14 vs. PIT)

• 6 receptions
• 258 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 43.8 fantasy points

  Ismail hadn't broken 76 receiving yards or 5 receptions all season, for a Ravens team that ranked 24th in passing yards. Yet, he caught lightning in a bottle on that day against Pittsburgh, averaging an astounding 43 yards per reception.

2) Eddie Kennison, STL, 1996 (Week 15 vs. ATL)

• 5 receptions
• 226 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 40.6 fantasy points

  Eddie Kennison was a rookie in 1996, part of a fantastic WR draft class. But in STL he was primarily making his mark as a deep threat often catching no more than 1 or 2 receptions in a game. However, in Week 14 Kennison caught 8 passes for 102 yards and a TD; which no doubt put him on the radar screen of fantasy playoff contenders who needed a potential breakout WR for the playoff run. Those with the courage and conviction to start Kennison in Week 15 couldn't have been happier after he torched the Falcons for 226 yards and 3 scores.

3) Kevin Williams, DAL, 1995 (Week 17)

• 9 receptions
• 203 yards
• 2 touchdowns
• 34.4 fantasy points

  One of the quirkiest statistical anomalies in modern NFL history; Kevin Williams' Week 17 performance came out of nowhere and would never again be duplicated. Williams would never again top the 100-yard receiving mark, and would never score more than 1 touchdown in a season. Chances are Williams wasn't in many fantasy lineups.

4) Lamar Thomas, MIA, 1998 (Week 16 vs. DEN)

• 6 receptions
• 136 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 31.6 fantasy points

  In nearly six seasons, Lamar Thomas had never gained 100 yards in a game, so it came as a surprise to nearly everyone when he broke out for 136 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Broncos in Week 16 of the 1998 season. Oddly enough, Thomas' NFL career would end after the 1998 season. Perhaps he figured it was best to quit while he was ahead, we'll never know for sure.

5) Tim Dwight, 1999 (Week 17 vs. SF)

• 7 receptions
• 162 yards
• 2 touchdowns
• 28.2 fantasy points

  Tim Dwight was quietly putting together a marginally decent fantasy season in 1999 having scored at least a TD or gained 100+ yards in six of his first 15 games. But it was the final game of the season when Dwight's deep speed and open field running paid their biggest dividends. Against the 49ers, Dwight caught a season high 7 receptions for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns; no doubt throwing a wrench in some fantasy bowls in the process.

"Bennettized" by QBs

1) Bobby Hoying, PHI, 1997 (Week 14 vs. CIN)

• 26 of 42
• 313 yards
• 4 touchdowns
• 1 INT
• 62 yards rushing
• 36.9 fantasy points

  The former Ohio State Buckeye started the season as Philadelphia's 3rd string QB, but was forced into action late in the season. Yet no one could have seen his 300-yard, 4 touchdown performance coming. Odds are Hoying made an appearance or two in fantasy playoff matchups however, because he was facing a Bengals defense that was among the league's worst, so people playing matchups and desperate for a starter due to injury likely rolled the dice on Hoying and pulled off an upset or two in the process.

2) Boomer Esiason, CIN, 1997 (Week 14 vs. PHI)

• 27 of 47
• 378 yards
• 4 touchdowns
• 33.9 fantasy points

  Oddly enough, the very same game provides us with two entrants. Esiason had returned to the Bengals in 1997 after spending four seasons elsewhere. After starting the season as Jeff Blake's backup, Esiason stepped in during Week 11 and put together a stellar six week run which included 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. There's no doubt Esiason found his way into many starting lineups by Week 14, and owners were rewarded with nearly 400 yards passing and 4 touchdowns.

3) Cade McNown, CHI, 1999 (Week 15 vs. DET)

• 27 of 36
• 301 yards
• 4 touchdowns
• 2 INTs
• 36 rushing yards
• 32.7 fantasy points

  McNown played sparingly in his rookie year and had taken a grand total of 11 passing attempts over the last month prior to getting the start in Week 15. Bears fans were treated to a passing clinic as he completed 75% of his passes and threw for 4 touchdowns. History shows this game to have been the exception not the rule, but the Soldier Field faithful thought they had a franchise QB at least for a week or two.

4) Jake Plummer, ARI, 1997 (Week 15 vs. WAS)

• 19 of 38
• 337 yards
• 4 touchdowns
• 2 INTs
• 31.8 fantasy points

  Jake the Snake had assumed the starting role by mid-season, although most of his games were rather pedestrian to that point save for a 388 yards (1 TD, 2 INT) outing against the Giants. But coming off a solid 270 yard, 2 TD outing in Week 14, Plummer put together his first 300+ yard passing game as well as 4 touchdown passes against the Redskins.

5) Rob Johnson, BUF, 1998 (Week 17 vs. NO)

• 12 of 18
• 230 yards
• 3 touchdowns
• 23 rushing yards
• 1 rushing TD
• 31.1 fantasy points

Rob Johnson had spent his first three seasons as a backup for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but stepped into the role of Doug Flutie's backup in Buffalo in 1998. Flutie suffered through some injuries which allowed Johnson to show glimpses of what would make him one of the biggest fantasy busts in the last decade. In Week 17, Johnson completed 2/3rds of his passes, 3 touchdowns and ran for another score; making him one of the top "sleeper" QBs entering the 1999 season. Needless to say his mobility ended up being far outweighed by his complete lack of pocket presence, but for that final week in 1998, he was a surprise fantasy stud and someone Flutie owners may have started out of desperation, much to their opponents chagrin.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 20 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues