|
|
Login / Signup | ||
|
 |
Pre · 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10 · 11 · 12 · 13 · 14 · 15 · 16 · 17 · P1 · P2 · P3 · P4 |
 As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course… One Week Does Not A Season Make… There's nothing quite like Week 1 of the football season, is there? After days, weeks, months of preparation, careful and masterful drafting, and a lot of meaningless preseason game action, the players are finally playing for keeps. And that, of course, means we fantasy football enthusiasts are also finally racking up points in the hopes of proving ourselves a cut above our fellow competitors. As gratifying as a Week 1 victory may be, the sting of a Week 1 loss is doubly felt. If you taste victory at the outset, you're merely feeling at peace as you've confirmed your own preconceptions about how the season will progress, but if you lose the first matchup of the year, self-deprecating questions about the merits of your own rankings and projections likely abound. In any event, I'm here to remind new and old alike that ONE WEEK DOES NOT A SEASON MAKE. No team is likely as good (or bad as the case may be) as Week 1 scores indicate and it's important to remember this as you attempt to progress through the 17 weeks of insanity we otherwise call the NFL regular season. With that in mind, let's look at some of the unlikelier occurrences from Week 1 at the key positions. Quarterbacks
This triumvirate was universally lauded this offseason, the kind of players you keep in your lineup every week. Yet, the three combined to score fewer fantasy points than Donovan McNabb or Daunte Culpepper scored individually. Brett Favre - QB22 (143 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INTs) Brett Favre's 143 yards passing mark his lowest Week 1 total of his career, but not by much. In 2000, Favre threw for only 152 yards (14 of 34, 1 TD, 1 INT) against the Jets. This was the 14th time in his career Favre failed to throw for 150 yards in a game. Remarkably, Favre threw for less than 150 yards FIVE times last year, yet ended up leading the NFL in TD passes and ranked 8th among fantasy signal callers. Green Bay's offense has become run-oriented and the team will win games on the back of Ahman Green whenever possible. Don't count on consistently monstrous yardage but remember that Favre should continue to throw plenty of touchdown passes to go along with 3,200+ yards for the season. Trent Green - QB30 (174 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT) Green's 174 yards was a disappointment to many fantasy owners, particularly because it coincided with no touchdown passes. Yet, it shouldn't come as that much of a surprise given how prolific Priest Holmes has been scoring touchdowns. Over Trent Green's tenure in KC, this marks the 13th time he's been held to 175 yards passing or less. It's only the 5th time he's also failed to throw a touchdown pass. The good news is that there are enough incidences during his time in KC to suggest this isn't a harbinger of a failed season; yet the occurrences are few enough to bet that he's unlikely to have many more weeks like that in 2004. Steve McNair - QB28 (73 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INTs) Steve McNair, the reigning co-MVP, deserves special mention here. His 74 yards over a full game seemed so unlikely that I looked back into our games database (care of Dr. Doug Drinen and our sister site) to see how often QBs played a full game but failed to eclipse 100 yards passing. It turns out to be more common that I would have thought. Just for fun, here are the top 20 fantasy performances by QBs with no more than 100 yards passing in a game over the last decade:
As you can see, McNair is no stranger to absolutely dreadful passing games, having put up modest weeks in 1997 and 2000 (he was due, right?). It's worth noting that McNair finished 6th and 15th in 1997 and 2000, respectively, among fantasy QBs. Needless to say, there's no reason to press the panic button on McNair (not that anyone would after one week), let's just chalk this up as one of his "once in a blue moon" subpar performances. Running Backs The Ageless Ones…
In Week 1, five of the league's elder statesmen finished among the top 20 fantasy RBs. For at least one week we have to question the conventional wisdom that suggests RBs lose their effectiveness upon turning 30 years old. Curtis Martin (29 carries, 196 yards rushing, 6.8 YPC, 2 TDs (1 receiving)) Martin's 196 yards rushing was the 3rd highest total in a season opener in the last decade, bested only by Eddie George's 216-yard performance in 1997 and Duce Staley's 201-yard performance against Dallas in 2000. What's most impressive about Martin's Week 1 showing was that he's a notoriously slow starter, so the idea that he would have one of his best weeks ever, at the age of 31, to start the season seemed remote. Take a look at Martin's Week 1 performances over his career:
Many feared that Martin was on the downside of his career after he struggled to score last season, but in one week's time he's managed to match last year's scoring output. Combine that with the fact that Martin actually was on pace for 1,500 rushing yards with Chad Pennington in the lineup last season, and this start shouldn't have been as surprising as it seemed. Martin, if healthy, remains a very solid fantasy RB2 in any league format. Priest Holmes (26 carries, 151 yards rushing, 5.8 YPC, 3 TDs) What more is there to say, it's good to be Priest Holmes and it's good to be a Priest Holmes owner in fantasy football. Holmes picked up where he left off, as the most dominant force in football. His Week 1 performance should put to rest any lingering concerns born out of his "I thought about retiring" talk from the preseason. Marshall Faulk (22 carries, 128 yards rushing, 5.8 YPC, 0 TDs) For the first time in his career, Faulk wasn't someone fantasy owners coveted on draft day. Despite proclamations to the contrary by Mike Martz and Faulk himself, many worried that his injuries and age would prevent him from performing at a high level. Yet, one week into the season those concerns seem unfounded as Faulk ran decisively behind a less-than-stellar Rams offensive line. He was spelled by Steven Jackson, although neither was given a chance to score. In any event, Faulk should remain an every week fantasy starter until (if) he succumbs to injury. Emmitt Smith (16 carries, 87 yards rushing, 5.4 YPC, 1 TD) The NFL's all-time leading rusher was a fantasy afterthought this season. Even after RB Marcel Shipp was lost to injury and Smith was the clear and unchallenged starter, most teams passed on Smith. Hard to blame them considering Emmitt is coming off a season where he averaged 2.8 yards per carry and looked ill equipped to find a running lane. The only thing that's ultimately changed is HC Dennis Green and his system. But that may be enough to make Smith worthy of consideration in deeper leagues. He still only managed 87 yards and 16 carries, hardly workhorse numbers, but suddenly the prospect of using Smith as an injury or bye week fill-in no longer appears a complete act of desperation. Jerome Bettis (5 carries, 1 yard rushing, 3 TDs) How does someone average 0.2 yards per carry and finish as the 12th best fantasy runner for the week? By getting 3 touchdowns at the goal line, that's how. Bettis' Week 1 performance (18.1 fantasy points) holds a special place in the record books: Most Fantasy Points Scored by a RB, With 2 Yards Rushing or Less (Last 10 Years)
Of all the grizzled RB veterans mentioned, Bettis remains the one you shouldn't have in your lineup most weeks barring an injury to Duce Staley. Bettis appears to be HC Bill Cowher's choice as a specialty short yardage back; but to expect the Steelers to have multiple carries at the 1 yard line weekly seems foolhardy. Wide Receivers So where's this major impact from enforcement of the downfield contact rules? This offseason much was made about the league's intention to strictly enforce rules prohibiting downfield contact by defensive players against receivers. Everyone from ESPN to Sports Illustrated to our site devoted time and effort in analyzing the impact these rules changes (or reassertions to be more exact) would have on the league. Universally it was agreed that teams would be able to rack up passing yards in unprecedented fashion as defensive backs struggled to learn to play completely hands-off. It was also expected that penalties and the average time of NFL games would skyrocket. As evidence, pass interference and illegal contact penalties increased 8x in the preseason. Yet, in Week 1 there was no discernible impact from the league's new mandates. In fact, this marked the least productive Week 1 for receivers since 2001. Only seven (7) receivers amassed 100 or more yards receiving in Week 1: Number of 100+ Yard Receivers in Week 1, by Season
While it's interesting to note that Week 1 didn't see the impact of the new rules enforcement, it's way too early to think that the impact won't be meaningful. Consider Week 1 a statistical anomaly and don't press the panic button because your top receivers failed to make their marks this week. Notes:
2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases 3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues |
|
Site Map | Contact
Us | Login
/ Signup
©Copyright Footballguys.com 2003, All rights reserved. |