As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Dominating Data (thanks to Doug Drinen)

Longtime Footballguys subscribers need no introduction to Dr. Doug Drinen. Doug, one of the original Footballguys staff members, is also the creator of Pro Football Reference which is THE compendium of football statistics and information for the discerning eye. Many of the concepts we hold as self evident today (i.e., that RBs over 30 struggle to succeed OR the 2^nd and 3^rd year WRs are the most likely to break out) were originally put through the statistical crosshairs of Doug; either coming out vetted or debunked as the case may be.

In any event, Doug continues to expand the availability and usage of historical statistics. This year, subscribers were treated to the Data Dominator, which allows you to make on-the-fly queries about virtually anything that comes to mind (e.g., who had the most rushing yards in the 4^th quarter last year, which team had the best red zone TD conversion rate, which QB accumulated the most yardage during garbage time).

Five weeks into the season, I decided it would be fun to take the Dominator for a ride and see what interesting statistics pop up for further analysis. We’ll continue to mine data as it strikes our fancy. Also, if any of you have specific queries that you would like to see me address in future issues of the Stategist (or on the message boards), please e-mail me at: [email protected] and I will make every effort to hit on those subjects which are both interesting and appeal to a broad cross section of our subscriber base.

Team Yards Per Rush (by RBs only)

Things that stand out

1. New York Giants leading the league in YPR — The Giants are leading the league in yards per rush at just over 5 yards per carry. This is remarkable for many reasons, not the least of which is the fact that most league pundits felt the Giants offensive line would be among the league’s worst this year. Clearly this has not been the case and the ragtag group is playing effectively for new head coach Tom Coughlin. RB Tiki Barber deserves credit to, as he’s kept his fumbling issues at bay and has been the league’s best all around back through the first five weeks of the year.
2. Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo struggling — Each of these teams should arguably be much more effective running the ball. Green Bay is probably the most surprising, given the fact that Ahman Green is coming off an 1800 yard season, and the Packers offensive line (intact until last week) was universally viewed as among the league elite. Washington was more of a work in progress, but Joe Gibbs and Joe Bugel (the creators of the Hogs) in combination with Clinton Portis were surely expected to be better than 29^th in the league. Remember Portis averaged 5.5 yards per rush in his first two seasons in Denver; yet this Hall of Fame coaching staff and all-world RB can’t overcome what appears to be a subpar offensive line (despite being very expensive). Finally, the Bills weren’t supposed to have problems running the ball behind Travis Henry and Willis McGahee; but they have. What’s more puzzling is that Jim McNally, the man many view as the best offensive line coach in the NFL (he worked wonders in New York under Jim Fassel) has had no discernible impact.

Evaluating the new additions to team passing offenses

With NFL free agency and the salary cap era in full bloom, virtually every team undergoes measurable changes from year to year. How personnel additions and subtractions pan out goes a long way in determining the success or failure of each team’s season. Below is a look at how each team’s reception-to-target ratio has changed from 2003 to 2004. Reception-to-target is an excellent way of measuring both the effectiveness of the receiving corps (drops lower the ratio) as well as the accuracy of the quarterback (errant or uncatchable passes lower the ratio).

2004 Team Reception-to-Targets Ratio (Sorted by YOY Change)

Things that stand out

1. Terrell Owens is having a MAJOR impact on Philadelphia’s passing offense — Supporters of Donovan McNabb have long maintained that he was burdened by one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL; which explained why he struggled to complete more than 60% of his passes despite playing in a West Coast offensive system. With the addition of Terrell Owens, that theory was destined to be put to the test. Early results are fairly conclusive; TO has improved the entire flow of the Eagles offense. In 2003, the Eagles receivers caught 57% of their targeted passes, this year they are catching 68% and are among the league leaders; a testament not only to TO’s pass catching prowess, but also because his presence on the field has opened up opportunities for the Eagles other receivers.
2. Jeff Garcia and Carson Palmer haven’t answered the call — NFC North rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati both made QB changes this offseason. The Browns brought in Jeff Garcia to replace a revolving door of Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb; while the Bengals handed the reins to 1^st overall pick Carson Palmer despite Jon Kitna’s remarkable 2003 season as the team’s signal caller. Results have been downright disappointing for both teams thus far; as they have shown the worst erosion from last year to this year. Why can the blame be put squarely on the shoulders of the QBs, and not the receivers? Because for the most part both teams return the same receiving corps. Yes, the Bengals have been without sure handed Peter Warrick but that doesn’t account for the majority of the 7% decline in rec-to-target efficiency; far from it. The good news for the Bengals is that they still have Jon Kitna ready to step in and right the ship if Palmer continues to struggle. The Browns on the other hand are in dire straits after handing Garcia a big contract to be the team’s new starter.

2004 Goal Line TD Conversion Rate (RBs, Minimum of 2 Carries)

Things that stand out

1. Is Tennessee’s line simply not effective at driving blocking in short yardage? — Like many of you, I was thrilled to see the Titans finally let Eddie George go as he had ceased being an effective option for them years ago. George was THE WORST goalline running back in football over the last two years. So while Chris Brown has been everything the Titans’ could have hoped for through five games, there’s one glaring weakness in his game YTD — his ability to convert short yardage situations. Through five games, Brown is 0 for 3 in converting goal line carries, but he’s also just 6 for 18 (33%) in converting first downs of 3^rd yards or less. Meanwhile, Eddie “3 yards and a cloud of dust” George is 2 for 3 in goal line attempts this year for Dallas, which is 44% better than his rate a year ago in Tennessee. So, if George has improved after leaving Tennessee and Brown, despite running for a ton of yards week in, week out struggles mightily in close, is there any other conclusion than the Titans offensive line simply isn’t capable of getting a big push in short yardage? Also note that Antowain Smith is 0 for 4 at the goal line, making the Titans RBs a combined 0 for 7.
2. Tomlinson and Martin could be in for a scoring surge — Both LaDainian Tomlinson and Curtis Martin are having outstanding starts to the season, with one exception. Neither has converted a high percentage of their goal line chances. Assuming they both regress somewhat to their career means, both should be in line for a surge in TD production the rest of the way. What’s notable in Martin’s case is that much of the reason he only scored 2 touchdowns last year was because he didn’t have many chances near the goal line. This year he’s got plenty of chances, so watch out.
3. Credit to Alex Gibbs in Atlanta, not so much to Jim McNally in Buffalo — Alex Gibbs and Jim McNally are two of the league’s most heralded offensive line coaches. McNally was brought to Buffalo to repair a Bills line that couldn’t protect Drew Bledsoe effectively, while Gibbs left his long-tenured position in Denver to join Jim Mora and the Atlanta Falcons. Through the first five weeks, it appears the Falcons offensive line is flourishing under Gibbs’ zone blocking scheme; witness Warrick Dunn’s converting on 4 of 7 goalline opportunities; far better than his career averages would’ve suggested probable. McNally on the other hand may need a year or two to get new personnel into Buffalo. Travis Henry, who converted 46% of his goal line opportunities last year, is 0 for 3; not to mention Buffalo is among the league’s worst teams in yards-per-rush.

Where is the impact of the stricter enforcement on downfield contact?

Most league observers predicted a surge in offensive output this year as the league cracked down on illegal contact against receivers. Some predicted it would lead to the largest single season increase in points per game that we’ve ever seen. Yet, through the first five weeks all the preseason hype appears much ado about nothing.

Passing Production (Weeks 1-5, 2002-2004)

As you can see, yards per attempt is up almost 7% and interceptions thrown down a remarkable 24%; which certainly correlate to more pass interference penalties. However, those metrics haven’t correlated to an increase in scoring, as passing touchdowns are down by a small margin, while total passing first downs are up by an equally uninspiring margin.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues