As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

When Wide Receivers Change Teams Mid-Season…

In most years, the NFL trading deadline comes and goes with nary a noticeable transaction. Because of salary cap restrictions, most teams are loathe to move a player during the season, at least anyone of consequence (i.e., someone commanding significant salary and/or playing a regular role in the team’s offensive or defensive units). But this year saw a bit of a divergence as several teams moved wide receivers at the trading deadline.

Specifically, four receivers of note were on the move this week:

• Jerry Rice was traded to the Seattle Seahawks for a conditional 7^th round draft pick
• Keenan McCardell was traded to the San Diego Chargers for 3^rd and 6^th round picks in the 2005 draft
• Quincy Morgan was traded to Dallas in exchange for Antonio Bryant; who joins the Cleveland receiving corps

From a fantasy perspective, what should we make of these transactions? Which, if any, stand to be meaningful enough to warrant our attention? Are there historical precedents we can point to for insight?

Since 1970, 113 receivers have changed teams midseason; an average of 3 per season. This doesn’t just include trades, it also includes players who were waived and subsequently latched on with another squad in the same season. For the purposes of our discussion, any receiver that switches teams during the year, and plays in at least one game (i.e., is active and records some measurable stat) made the initial query.

After taking a look at the list of 113 receivers, it appeared that many failed to have any noticeable role with EITHER team in a given year. By simply removing any receiver that failed to catch 5 or more receptions at either stop, we are left with just 63 receivers. Looking at this another way, 50 of the 113 receivers who changed teams midseason over the last 35 years had virtually no role offensively on either squad.

We’re left with 63 receivers, yet the bar remains low. These 63 receivers have simply managed to catch 5 or more passes on ONE of the two teams during the season. What if we expand that cutoff to 20 or more receptions for at least one of the teams?

You are left with a whopping 12 receivers. Only 12 wideouts have managed to catch 20 or more passes for a team in a year when they change teams midseason (via trade or release).

Receivers changing teams mid-season AND caught at least 20 passes for EITHER team

As you can see, the list is neither long, nor distinguished. Andre Rison had a very good career, and you’ll probably remember that he started the 96 season with Jacksonville and ended up playing a key role in Green Bay’s 1996 Super Bowl run. Let’s look at each of these players to see how they did on their original team and how they fared after moving to a new team in-season.

1)       Danny Abramowicz (1973)

Abramowicz had a very solid 7-year run in New Orleans http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/AbraDa00.htm and then latched onto the 49ers for most of the ’73 season. Although his 35 receptions for 442 yards may not seem that impressive, he just barely missed overtaking Gene Washington as the 49ers leading receiver that year. This was a team that threw for only 2,645 yards; and Abramowicz accounted for 16.7% of the team’s receiving yardage.

2)       Marlin Briscoe (1975)

Marlin Briscoe was a journeyman receiver who enjoyed a few marginally successful years in Buffalo http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BrisMa00.htm. By the time 1975 rolled around, Briscoe was signing with San Diego as his 4^th team in 8 years. Shortly after the 1975 season began, Briscoe moved to the Lions and was their leading receiver over the final 8 games of the season. He tied for the team lead in TD receptions (despite playing in only 8 of 14 games), was 2^nd in yardage and receptions.

3)       Chris Burkett (1989)

In his 5^th season with Buffalo, Chris Burkett held out demanding a new contract. His wishes weren’t granted, and upon his return he was replaced in the starting lineup by Flip Johnson; to which Burkett threatened to quit the team. The Bills waived him, and he immediately signed with the Jets where he played the better part of five seasons. He was voted the team’s MVP in 1991 as their special teams’ captain and played a reasonably important role in his final years with the Jets as their possession receiver http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BurkCh00.htm.

4) Wes Chandler (1981)

Wes Chandler is one of the more accomplished receivers in this group, having played 11 seasons. He wasn’t a bad fantasy player either enjoying 3 top 10 seasons and another 3 top 20 showings. Chandler began his career playing for the Bum Phillips’ led Saints, and was traded to the Chargers in 1981 where he was a key part of the Don Coryell, Dan Fouts passing attack. In 12 games with the Chargers in 1981, Chandler put together 52 receptions for 857 yards and 5 touchdowns http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ChanWe00.htm.  This projects to 69 receptions, 1142 yards and 7 touchdowns pro rata. Chandler is by far the most successful example of a receiver switching teams and stepping in to contribute immediately.

5)       Mike Friede (1980)

The best thing that can be said about Mike Friede is that he caught the 10^th most passes by any receiver who switched teams midseason in NFL history. Beyond that, there’s not much to say about a guy who had 40 receptions in a brief 2-year career. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/FrieMi00.htm

6)       Duriel Harris (1984)

Dolphins fans probably remember Duriel Harris as the sure handed deep threat who averaged 33 receptions and 17 yards a catch over eight seasons in Miami. An interesting sidenote, Harris was part of one of the most famous playoff plays in history (the hook and ladder in the 1982 Dolphins-Chargers matchup) http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3902813/.  The Dolphins traded Harris to Cleveland for draft picks in 1984 and then, despite catching 32 passes for 512 yards in the first 11 games, the Browns moved him to Dallas. Harris played almost no role in Dallas upon his trade, and retired the following year (as a Dolphin).

7)       Randal Hill (1991)

Randal Hill was a “can’t miss” first rounder out of the University of Miami (he was on Jimmy Johnson’s ’87 Championship team) who somehow missed with Don Shula. Shula traded Hill to the (then Phoenix) Cardinals one week into the season. Hill went on to play 3^rd fiddle in Arizona for a few seasons http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/HillRa00.htm.

8)       Morris Owens (1976)

Morris Owens will go down in history as little more than a footnote to Bucs fans, but his story is interesting nonetheless. Owens languished as a part time player for two seasons in Miami, and then the expansion Buccaneers (yep, the 0-14 Bucs) claimed him off waivers in Week 3. Owens went on to lead the Bucs in TD receptions over the next 3 seasons. Notably, Owens had 3 TD catches against the Dolphins in 1976, one of the first memorable “revenge” games; at least in my lifetime. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/OwenMo00.htm

9)       Golden Richards (1978)

After an unmemorable five seasons in Dallas culminating in a Super Bowl win in 1977, Golden Richards was traded to the Bears in 1978 where he caught 27 receptions in 15 games. While this may not seem like much of an accomplishment (4^th on the team that year), it’s the 5^th most receptions by a player changing teams in NFL history. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/RichGo00.htm

10)   Andre Rison (1996)

Andre “Bad Moon” Rison was a 5-time Pro Bowler who played for seven teams in his 12 year career. Talented but mercurial, Rison’s on field prowess was often superseded by his off the field behavior and attitude, which explains why he moved teams so often despite being a talented receiver. In any event, after languishing as a part time player in Cleveland, he signed with the Jaguars in 1996 looking for a fresh start. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/RisoAn00.htm However, his play once again didn’t support his attitude, and the Jaguars waived him midway through the 1996 season. The Green Bay Packers, in need of playmakers in the receiving corps, took a chance on Rison for the final 5 games. Rison only caught 13 passes over those 5 games, but played a huge role in the team’s Super Bowl victory, catching 2 passes for 77 yards and a TD.

11)   Jerry Simmons (1967)

Simmons was a journeyman receiver who played for 5 teams over nine seasons, never catching more than 28 receptions in a season. After being traded to the Falcons in 1967, Simmons was the team’s 2^nd leading receiver. The team finished 1-12-1 with the worst offense in the NFL.

12)   Dave Smith (1972)

After finishing tied for 8^th in receptions as a 2^nd year receiver in Pittsburgh, he was traded mid-season to the Oilers in 1972, where his 20 receptions was just good enough to be among the top 12 receivers to change teams in league history. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/SmitDa00.htm

As you can see, there simply is not much precedent to suggest that receivers who change teams are going to succeed with their new team. Although 113 WRs have changed squads mid-season since 1970, the vast majority were bit players on their current teams and were either waived and subsequently signed, or if traded were not considered integral parts of contending teams. To think that in the last 35 years, only 12 receivers have caught at least 20 passes for a team in a year where they played for more than one squad is mind boggling.

Most Receptions by a Receiver, after changing teams in-season

So what do we make of the receivers changing teams this year?

• Keenan McCardell (San Diego Chargers) — McCardell is clearly the most accomplished receiver to ever change teams mid-season. Wes Chandler had a solid career but largely AFTER he was traded to San Diego, and Andre Rison was on the decline late in his career when he caught lightning in a Green Bay Packers’ bottle in 1996. The Chargers have already played six games, meaning McCardell will, at most, have 10 games to contribute. With the injury to Reche Caldwell, it stands to reason McCardell will play immediately, despite not knowing the team’s playbook inside and out.

  TE Antonio Gates is likely to remain the team’s most targeted receiver, but McCardell stands a good chance of replacing Caldwell, who was the team’s 2^nd most targeted receiver (just ahead of RB LaDainian Tomlinson) prior to his injury. If McCardell sees as many targets as Caldwell did; he would be in line for approximately 55 to 60 looks over the last 10 games. Assuming he converts 60%-70% of his targets, McCardell would be in line for 33 to 42 receptions. Applying McCardell’s career YPC of 12.9, we’re looking at approximately 425 to 540 yards receiving and a smattering of TD receptions.  Not a bad waiver pickup but not someone you should count on to reinvigorate your season as an every week starter.

• Quincy Morgan (Dallas Cowboys) — Morgan had a whopping 9 receptions through six games in Cleveland, but he did have 3 touchdowns. Morgan’s problem remains his inability to hold onto the ball. Quincy was targeted 21 times thus far, but converted only 43% of his catches. Considering Bill Parcells has little tolerance for failure, and the solid play of Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson YTD, Morgan likely slots into the deep threat, 3^rd option among the WR corps. He also likely sits behind TE Jason Whitten and RB Richie Anderson; making him the 5^th, and least sure-handed option in Big D. Don’t overpay for Morgan this week in waiver bidding, he’s not going to be worth it.

• Antonio Bryant (Cleveland Browns) — Bryant simply couldn’t get past his desire to be a go-to receiver and didn’t believe he deserved to play behind the veteran duo of Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson in Dallas. Whether he gets his wish in Cleveland remains to be seen, but one would think the Browns are aware of Bryant’s desire/need to be a large part of the offense. With Dennis Northcutt ideally suited as a slot/possession option, Bryant will start opposite Andre Davis as soon as he’s familiar enough with the playbook. Bryant is a big-time dark horse as he could conceivably emerge as QB Jeff Garcia’s top option by mid year; or he could end up an also ran. We do know that Garcia simply hasn’t gotten in synch with the Browns current receiving corps, so he’ll be welcome to a new weapon and will probably give Bryant a chance to succeed early. A very solid waiver pickup that should be available cheaply. Don’t start him yet, but watch to see how he fits into the offense for a week or two and hope for the best.  

• Jerry Rice (Seattle Seahawks) — At 42 years old, after catching just 5 passes in six games with Oakland, Rice finds himself reunited with one of his first offensive coordinators, Mike Holmgren. The good news for Rice is that Holmgren runs a traditional West Coast offense, and Rice will know the playbook instantly. Also helping his cause is the pending suspension of Koren Robinson. However, don’t assume the Rice will suddenly become a viable fantasy option in his new digs. He’s still behind Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram on the depth chart, and Koren Robinson will be back with the team after four games (assuming he loses his appeal). Rice was brought in as much for leadership purposes (to show this team how to win and play professionally) as he was to accumulate passes. Don’t be shocked if Rice ends up with 25-30 receptions the rest of the way; good enough to keep him prideful and happy, but not good enough to warrant your fantasy attention.

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 25 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues