As many of you know, there is a group of Footballguys, myself included, that take great pleasure in the use of statistical analysis as a means to succeed in fantasy football. Traditionally, we do much of our work leading up to the draft, using historical trends analysis and number crunching to help fine tune our annual projections for players and teams. But statistical analysis can, when used in conjunction with logical reasoning and sound football acumen, be useful during the season, as well. With that in mind, I will attempt to address some relevant in-season issues each and every week, with a statistical slant of course…

Thoughts on the Denver Running Back machine, Part I…

Reuben Droughns is the eighth Denver RB in the last 10 years to enjoy at least one 100-yard rushing day:

• Mike Anderson (8 games)
• Aaron Craver (1 game)
• Terrell Davis (34 games)
• Olandis Gary (4 games)
• Quentin Griffin (2 games)
• Glyn Milburn (1 game)
• Clinton Portis (18 games)
• Reuben Droughns (3 and counting)

The fact that 8 different running backs have eclipsed the 100 yard mark is impressive, but likely doesn’t come as a surprise to most considering the reputation Mike Shanahan’s team have garnered over the years. Surprisingly, Denver does not hold the top spot for most unique 100+ yard rushers over the last decade (although they’re close).

Most Rushers with At Least One 100+ Yard Rushing Game (by Team)

1)       Carolina (10)

·         Tim Biakabatuka

·         Dee Brown

·         Stephen Davis

·         Deshaun Foster

·         Brad Hoover

·         Richard Huntley

·         Anthony Johnson

·         Fred Lane

·         Derrick Moore

·         Lamar Smith

2)       Baltimore (8)

2)       Denver (8)

2)       Miami (8)

5)       Arizona (7)

5)       Atlanta (7)

5)       Chicago (7)

5)       Kansas City (7)

5)       Minnesota (7)

5)       New York Giants (7)

5)       Philadelphia (7)

5)       Pittsburgh (7)

5)       St. Louis (7)

Curious as to which team has the fewest individual rushers with at least one 100 yard game? It’s somewhat of a trick question as the Houston Texans have just two such runners (Domanick Davis and Jon Wells) but have only been in existence for three seasons. Of teams that have been around for the entire decade, there is a four way tie:

1)       Cincinnati Bengals (3)

1)       Dallas Cowboys (3)

1)       Green Bay (3)

1)       New York Jets (3)

Reuben Droughns has amassed three consecutive 100-yard games (509 yards) in his first three NFL starts, a rare feat. What’s more impressive from a fantasy perspective is that in the vast majority of 10- and 12-team leagues, Droughns went undrafted.

According to Antsports, Droughns was not in the top 85 running backs drafted in 10- and 12-team leagues this year. Droughns was an afterthought this preseason among a crowded Denver backfield which included:

• Quentin Griffin (ADP of RB24, Round 4, 7^th Choice)
• Tatum Bell (ADP of RB36, Round 9, 4^th Choice)
• Mike Anderson (ADP of RB46, Round 13, 1^st Choice)
• Garrison Hearst (ADP of RB51, Round 13, 9^th Choice)

Droughns success is interesting on many levels, not the least of which because you would be hard pressed to ever find another situation where a RB entered the season viewed as the 5^th option in the backfield but ends up the team’s top producer (and a significant fantasy contributor to boot, it’s not as though Droughns is simply plugging away for 3 yards and cloud of dust because Denver has no other options).

Minnesota is not far behind Denver in the “where did HE come from?” department. Like Denver, the Vikings have enjoyed unexpected success from a RB that started the season deep on their depth chart. Mewelde Moore, a rookie from Tulane, has truly been “in the right place at the right time.” Although the team was high on Moore and he was on many Dynasty leagues’ radar, Moore wasn’t expected to contribute much, if at all, this season as he was viewed as the backup 3^rd down option (because he’s a talented receiver) behind veteran Moe Williams. But injuries to Williams and Michael Bennett, along with a 4-game suspension for Onterrio Smith opened the door for Moore and no one would blame head coach Mike Tice if he decided to stick with Moore the rest of the way.

Through 3 games as the Vikings starter, Moore has amassed:

• 55 carries
• 339 yards rushing
• 6.2 yards-per-carry
• 24 receptions
• 198 receiving yards
• 8.3 yards-per-reception

Projected over a 16-game season:

• 293 carries
• 1,808 yards rushing
• 128 receptions
• 1,056 receiving yards

Incidentally, although Moore clearly would be hard pressed to continue at his current pace, it’s worth noting that he would utterly smash the all-time single season yards-from-scrimmage mark set in 1999 by Marshall Faulk (2,429 yards).

Minnesota leads the league with a 5.1 yards-per-carry team rushing average. Were they to sustain that mark, it would only be the fifth time in three seasons that a team averaged better than 5 yards per attempt.  What’s more interesting is that Minnesota, not always thought of as a rushing powerhouse, has been the most consistently productive rushing team over the last three years, not Denver (as some might expect) nor Kansas City (despite the presence of Priest).

Team Rushing Totals (2002-2004: Through Week 7)

Notes:
1) All fantasy point production assumes the Footballguys Scoring System:

• 1 point per 20 yards passing
• 1 point per 10 yards receiving or rushing
• 4 points per passing TD
• 6 points per rushing or receiving TD
• -1 per interception thrown

2) Special thanks to Doug Drinen and Ken Maxwell for providing the relevant statistical databases

3) Feel free to contact me ([email protected]) if you wish to discuss this column further or share other ideas for future issues