Commonalties of Top 5 Fantasy QBs (1994 - 2003)
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Posted 9/2 by David Yudkin, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Before we get started, people will ask why I picked the Top 5 QB instead of
the Top 10. That's an easy one. The true peak performers and QB with exceptional
scoring are normally the Top 5. I won't argue that some years there may have
been 3 great QB and other years there may have been 7, but to keep things consistent,
I picked the Top 5. It probably would have made more sense to pick an arbitrary
number of points scored per season (say 275) and work from there, but I didn't
do it that way.
I really had no set theories I was trying to prove BEFORE I did the research,
and only after I had a chance to absorb everything did I begin to start analyzing
the results. There is A LOT to review, so grab a drink, put on your reading
glasses, hold all your calls, and let's get started . . .
In 10 years, there were obviously 50 individual QB seasons that comprised the
Top 5. Some of the data will be based on the 50 individual seasons. However,
those seasons were compiled by 26 different QB, so that would explain why some
categories use the results of 26 players instead of 50 total seasons. For example,
each player was only drafted once, so the draft data is only used once (as is
height and weight).
For the purpose of this study, I used the following scoring system based on
a 12-team league:
Fantasy Points = (Pass Yds)/25 + (Rush Yd + Rec Yd)/10 + (Pass TDs)*6 + (Rush
TDs + Rec TDs)*6 - (INTs)*3.
The rankings would vary based on different scoring systems, especially with
variations in points per passing TD and penalties per each interception. Similarly,
with QB often getting injured and missing a few games here and there, there's
no good way to account for injuries in the rankings. (The best way might be
to review QB on a PPG scored basis-but that's a different study.)
Average Age at Time of Top 5 Season: 29.4 years old
Age 22: 2 times
Age 23: 2 times
Age 24: 2 times
Age 25: 7 times
Age 26: 6 times
Age 27: 4 times
Age 28: 2 times
Age 29: 1 time
Age 30: 4 times
Age 31: 3 times
Age 32: 1 time
Age 33: 4 times
Age 34: 3 times
Age 35: 3 times
Age 36: 2 times
Age 37: 3 times
Age 38: 0 times
Age 39: 1 time
Age 24 or younger: 6 times (12%)
Age 25-29: 20 times (40%)
Age 30-34: 15 times (30%)
Age 35+: 9 times (18%)
Unlike other skill positions, age and experience are generally good things
when it comes to elite QB performance. There was almost an even split between
QB that were older or younger than 30 years old. It seems that the most likely
scenario would be players in the 25-27 bracket and then a resurgence after age
30.
Average Height: 6'2½"
6'0": 1 player
6'1": 6 players
6'2": 6 players
6'3": 7 players
6'4": 3 players
6'5": 2 players
6'6": 1 player
For all the hype about QB needing to be tall to be successful, it does not
appear that the prototype 6'4" NFL QB is really the one that puts up the
big numbers. Only 12% of QB were 6'4" or taller. All the QB were above
6'0" but not much taller than that.
Average Weight: 222½ lbs
190-200 lbs: 2 players
201-210 lbs: 2 players
211-220 lbs: 10 players
221-230 lbs: 6 players
231-240 lbs: 5 players
241-250 lbs: 0 players
251+ lbs: 1 player
All the QB actually weighed 200 lbs or more (two were right at 200 lbs). The
huge majority fell within the 215-235 range. The one supersized QB was Culpepper,
but he is a rare physical specimen.
NFL Draft Position: Round 2.85 (62nd player selected)
1st Player Selected Overall: 6 players
1st Round: 10 players
2nd Round: 3 players
3rd Round: 0 players
4th Round: 4 players
5th Round: 1 player
6th Round: 1 player
7th Round: 0 players
8th Round: 1 player
9th Round: 1 player
Supplemental 1st: 1 player
Free Agent: 4 players
It appears that NFL teams struck pay dirt early in the draft or found some
hidden gems much later on. Although I did not look at all the first round draft
picks that didn't do much in "real" football, I suspect that there
were likely a similar amount of first round busts. A few players were noted
imports and free agent signings from other leagues (Warner, Moon, Garcia), so
some teams did not even have to rely on the draft to get a solid QB.
QB Taken in that Draft: 4.5
1st QB: 8 players
2nd QB: 1 player
3rd QB: 1 player
4th QB: 3 players
5th QB: 0 players
6th QB: 1 player
7th QB: 1 player
8th QB: 3 players
9th QB: 2 players
14th QB: 1 player
Supplemental 1st: 1 player
Free Agent: 4 players
As stated above, the top guys seemed to do very well and some of the later
round selections turned into gems. The players in the middle generally were
the ones that didn't pan out.
First Top 5 Season Occurred in Season #: 4.65
1: 0 times
2: 8 times
3: 5 times
4: 3 times
5: 1 time
6: 3 times
7: 1 time
8: 2 times
9: 0 times
10: 1 time
11: 2 times
If you are looking to catch lightning in a bottle by selected a rookie QB in
your fantasy draft, you will likely be disappointed. There were no rookies that
earned a spot in the Top 5 in the past 10 years. But the most likely break out
year was year two. That might be worth remembering for later on . . .
Top 5 Season Occurred With
Original Team: 14 times
2nd Team: 8 times
3rd Team: 4 times
4th Team: 2 times
5th team: 1 time
There were plenty of prototypical franchise QB (Manning, Elway, Marino), but
some players were actually on a different team once they stuck gold (Favre for
example). Unlike other positions, switching teams often INCREASED production
rather than stifled it. Three players had Top 5 seasons with different teams:
Moon, Testaverde, and Cunningham
Average Number of Top 5 Seasons: 2.7 seasons
1: 9 players
2: 8 players
3: 1 player
4: 4 players
5: 0 players
6: 3 players
7: 0 players
8: 1 player
You can look at this one a lot of ways. 35% of QB did not post another Top
5 season (at least not as of yet). 65% did not have more than two Top 5 seasons.
There are only a few true studs at QB that can be great year in and year out.
Even Warner only had two Top 5 seasons.
Number of Top 12 Seasons BEFORE First Top 5
0 times: 12
1 time: 9
2 times: 4
3 times: 1
20 times in 95 seasons played = 20.1%
46% of Top 5 QB never ranked in the Top 12 BEFORE ranking in the Top 5. That's
a BIG number should history continue to repeat itself. The bottom stat reflects
the fact that the 26 QB in the study compiled a total of 20 Top 12 seasons out
of 95 seasons played before any of them made the Top 5. This is somewhat misleading,
as some players played for 10 years or more before hitting it big (Gannon for
example).
Percentage of Top 5 Seasons AFTER First Top 5
44 times in 153 seasons played = 28.8%
Of all the seasons the Top 5 QB played after that season, the odds were 71.2%
against them repeating that performance level for all seasons played beyond
that season. The 26 QB in the study went on to play 153 total seasons to date,
and of those seasons 28.8% of them were Top 5 seasons.
Percentage of Top 12 Seasons AFTER First Top 5
86 times in 153 seasons played = 56.2%
However, while these QB may not have stayed in the Top 5, many of them were
still worthy QB1s for fantasy purposes. The 26 QB in the study went on to rank
as Top 12 (fantasy QB1) numbers 56.2% of the time.
Average Team RB1: 13.3 Ranking
Top 5: 14 times (28%)
Top 10: 24 times (48%)
Top 20: 38 times (76%)
Top 30: 45 times (90%)
Not Top 30: 5 times (10%)
Again, is the glass half full or half empty? Almost half the time teams had
a Top 10 RB-which means half the time they didn't. The range that sticks out
in my mind is 76% for a Top 20 RB-which is also a theoretical line in the sand
for where RB in RBBC typically start in the final rankings. I did not have the
time to review that in more detail, but there could be something to it.
Average Team WR1: 10.8 Ranking
Top 5: 22 times (44%)
Top 10: 33 times (66%)
Top 20: 42 times (84%)
Top 30: 45 times (90%)
Not Top 30: 5 times (10%)
Basically, a Top 5 QB normally needs a "go to WR" to get into the
upper level QB rankings. Best season by a QB without much WR support: Steve
McNair, 1998. His highest-ranking WR was the #62 ranked WR.
Average Team WR2: 34.8 Ranking
Top 5: 0 times
Top 10: 6 times (12%)
Top 20: 15 times (30%)
Top 30: 22 times (44%)
Top 40: 29 times (58%)
Top 50: 39 times (78%)
Not Top 50: 11 times (22%)
Not Top 30: 28 times (56%)
The numbers here are somewhat surprising in that one would think that a Top
QB might need two top WR, but that does not necessarily seem to be the case.
With the WR2 not in the Top 30 56% of the time, it does seem to make that WR1
even more important and more productive.
Average Team TE: 10.6 Ranking
Top 5: 17 times (34%)
Top 10: 30 times (60%)
Top 20: 45 times (90%)
Top 30: 48 times (96%)
Not Top 30: 2 times (4%)
This one makes more sense. Teams with at least decent (or better) TE production
significantly contributed to QB numbers of Top 5 QB. I will agree with those
that will be quick to point out that the difference in a Top 10 fantasy TE and
a Top 20 fantasy TE could be very slim, but it does appear that teams with a
receiving TE help better QB.
Team Defense (Points Allowed): 14.3 Ranking
Top 5: 9 times (18%)
Top 10: 20 times (40%)
Top 20: 16 times (32%)
Top 30: 14 times (28%)
Not Top 30: 0 times
The performance of the defense does not appear to really have that much impact
on Top 5 QB performance. The groupings are pretty spread out and fairly even.
One would expect 33%-33%-33% across the bandwidth, and 40%-32%-28% is just a
little bit off from that.
Average Team Wins: 10.2 Wins Per Season
4 wins: 2 teams
5 wins: 0 teams
6 wins: 2 teams
7 wins: 2 teams
8 wins: 6 teams
9 wins: 5 teams
9½ wins: 1 team
10 wins: 8 teams
11 wins: 7 teams
12 wins: 8 teams
13 wins: 7 teams
14 wins: 1 teams
15 wins: 1 teams
7 or fewer wins: 6 times (12%)
8 or more wins: 44 times (88%)
10 or more wins: 32 times (64%)
A long-standing theory of fantasy football is that there are plenty of good
players from bad teams and the overall record of the NFL team doesn't really
matter. At least at QB, there may be good players on good teams, but the great
players come from great teams. With only 12% of Top 5 QB coming from teams with
losing records, that may be a factor in considering who to draft as a starting
fantasy QB.
QB Ranking Year Before: 15.5 Ranking
Top 5: 17 times (34%)
Top 10: 28 times (56%)
Top 20: 38 times (76%)
Top 30: 41 times (82%)
Not Top 30: 9 times (18%)
Basically, only 1 in 3 QB will repeat from one year to the next. Based solely
on the numbers, almost 1 in 5 Top 5 QB emerged from out of nowhere (not ranked
in the Top 30 the previous year) to be a Top 5 QB.
QB Ranking the Year After: 14.1 Ranking
Top 5: 15 times (33%)
Top 10: 8 times (18%)
Top 20: 11 times (24%)
Top 30: 2 times (4%)
Not Top 30: 9 times (20%)
Basically, there were almost the same number of Top 5 QB from Year X to Year
Y (33%) as there were QBs that went from Top 5 to Not Top 20 (24%).
Who Might Be Top 5 This Year?
Based on the most likely criteria as outlined above, here are some candidates
that could be Top 5 QB this year. While there are no set rules that mandate
there HAS to be a breakdown as follows, I am arbitrarily selecting the criteria
as a basis for evaluation.
Top 5 composition
- Two returning players form the Top 5 from 2003
- One player from the Top 10 in 2003
- One player from the Top 20 in 2003
- One player from the "Not Top 30 category.
That breakdown seems to be the one that supports the numbers, but again, each
year there can be any variation imaginable.
I also am going to predict that the Top 5 QB will all come from teams with
.500 or better records. Other criteria in the "most likely" category
include a Top 20 RB, a Top 10 WR1, a Top 50 WR2, and a Top 20 TE.
- 2 PLAYERS FROM LAST YEAR'S TOP 5
Picking two QB from Culpepper, Manning, Brooks, Green, and McNair, I'm going
to go with Culpepper and Manning. Brooks would be the other candidate that
seems to be in a decent position to repeat. Green may have had a career year
based on his previous numbers, and McNair seems like he's always ready to
miss a few games due to injury. Yes, they all could repeat, but history shows
that they won't be likely to.
- 1 PLAYER FROM LAST YEAR'S TOP 10
Last year's remaining Top 10: Hasselbeck, Kitna, Favre, Brady, and Garcia.
Kitna has lost his job, so he's unlikely to get a shot. Garcia has switched
to an offensively challenged team, so he also does not meet the criteria.
Green Bay and New England spread the ball around a lot and may not meet the
supporting player guidelines. That leaves Hasselbeck, who just missed last
year.
- 1 PLAYER FROM LAST YEAR'S TOP 20
Last year's Top 20: Bulger, Johnson, McNabb, Carter, Delhomme, Plummer,
Maddox, Leftwich, Harrington, and Bledsoe. Bulger and McNabb seem like the
most likely candidates--both have top receivers. Tampa Bay seems a bit chaotic
right now. Carter was released. Delhomme has the right supporting player breakdown
with the exception of TE. Denver's passing game may not produce a Top 10 WR.
Pittsburgh probably won't have a Top 20 RB and rarely utilizes a TE in the
passing game. Like some other Top 5 QB, Leftwich could be a second year breakout
candidate, but Jimmy Smith would have to regain his production level from
several years ago. Harrington probably has the talent around him to be Top
5, but the key players are still raw and unproven. Buffalo appears to be headed
to a run-focused offense, and the Bills passing numbers probably won't be
good enough to produce a Top 5 QB.
- Another player that could be in a decent situation could be Chad Pennington,
although he ranked in the smallest bandwidth of any grouping. The "Ranked
21-30 the Year Before" category only produced 6% of all Top 5 QB. But
Pennington has the positional support requirements set up perfectly.
Who Might Meet the "Not Top 30" Mystery QB Criteria this Year?
With the "Not Top 30" sector at almost 20% (based on the prior year's
rankings), that equates to an average of almost one surprise Top 5 QB per year
that comes from out of the blue to be a big producer. The QB in the past 10
years that did so were the following:
- Michael Vick QB 5 in 2002 (QB 35 in 2001)
Second year, running QB
- Daunte Culpepper QB 1 in 2000 (QB 70 in 1999)
Second year, running QB
- Donovan McNabb QB 5 in 2000 (QB 35 in 1999)
Second year, running QB
- Kurt Warner QB 1 in 1999 (QB 68 in 1998)
Second year, #1 starting QB injured (Trent Green), highly ranked offense
- Brad Johnson QB 5 in 1999 (QB 38 in 1998)
Switched teams
- Randall Cunningham QB 2 in 1998 (QB 39 in 1997)
Running QB, #1 starting QB injured (Brad Johnson), highly ranked offense
- Kordell Stewart QB 2 1997 (QB 43 in 1996)
Third year, running QB
- Jeff George QB 3 in 1997 (QB 28 in 1996)
Switched teams
- Erik Kramer QB 5 in 1995 (QB 36 in 1994)
#1 starting QB (Steve Walsh) injured, decent but not great offense
Based on that, the "mystery candidates" (Not Top 30 QB ) were
players that were
- Second year QB that broke out
- Running QB
- Veteran QB that switched teams
- Backup QB on solid offenses that got to play almost the entire season due
to an early injury to their team's #1 QB.
- Had never been a Top 5 QB before
If there were to be a surprise entry into the Top 5 this year (who was not
Top 30 in 2003), here are some candidates that could fit the profile
- Michael Vick, QB 39 in 2003 (running QB)
- Kurt Warner, QB 51 in 2003 (veteran player switching teams)
- Mark Brunell, QB 47 in 2003 (veteran player switching teams)
- Carson Palmer, DNP in 2003 (second year QB)
- Rex Grossman, QB 49 in 2003 (second year QB)
- Chris Simms, DNP in 2003 (second year QB)
- Ken Dorsey, DNP in 2003 (second year QB, injury to #1 starting QB)
- Gus Frerotte (veteran backup on solid offensive team)
- Chris Chandler (veteran backup on solid offensive team)
- Josh McCown, QB 35 in 2003 (third year, OK running the ball, offensive might
be better this year)
I agree that many of those players look like pretty steep long shots to rank
in the Top 5, but the same would have been said in the preseason all the other
years before.
The best option of those is probably Michael Vick, although any of the others
could stand a chance if the planets aligned properly. Of the started in that
group, there are not many from NFL teams that will be on teams projected to
be on teams with winning records.
Overall, a possible combination that seems like it COULD occur would be a Top
5 (if all remain healthy) of
- Culpepper
- Manning
- Hasselbeck
- Bulger
- Vick
If that's how things turn out, you saw it here first. If those are way off,
then this study was an informational study only.
If nothing else, this should only support those sharks that want to wait on
drafting a QB, as there's a lot of volatility from one year to the next at the
QB position and there are always players that perform far better than their
draft position.
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