2002 Strengths of Schedule

Footballguys Strengths of Schedule just keeps getting better. This year, for the first time ever, they are position specific. Instead of just passing and rushing, we have QB, RB, WR, TE, PK, and Defense/Special Teams. One thing that has remained is the basic philosophy. Our Strengths of Schedule are based upon how things have changed from last season to this one. And boy have things changed in a big way for some teams (i.e.. realignment).

Case in point: the Tennessee Titans. They traded home-and-home games with former AFC Central rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore in exchange for less defensive two game series with new AFC South foes Indianapolis and Houston. Steve McNair and company are making out like bandits!

Now, before getting to the rankings, here's how the numbers were found:
Each team's 2001 performance was analyzed with regards to fantasy points allowed (see scoring system below) at each position. Specifically, each team was ranked according to their number of fantasy points allowed compared to their opponent's average fantasy points scored. This idea was born at FootballGuysTalk.com by frequent poster Chris Annunziata (aka "Kid Charlemagne").

For example:
If Team A averaged 20 fantasy points per game (fppg) at QB and scored 15 against Team B, then Team B's QB defense did well. However, if Team A averaged 10 fppg at QB and scored 15 against Team B, then Team B's QB defense did poorly.

The rankings were then modified (using opinions only) based upon roster and/or coaching changes. These modified rankings were used to find the 2002 predicted Strengths of Schedule.

The difference between 2002 and 2001 was then found and, viola, the 2002 Strengths of Schedule were born.

Rk	Quarterback	2002	2001	Dif	Rk	Running Back	2002	2001	Dif
1	Tennessee	16.4	13.5	2.8	1	Cleveland	17.9	11.2	6.6
2	Cincinnati	17.2	14.6	2.6	2	Tampa Bay	20.4	15.5	4.9
3	Minnesota	18.3	15.9	2.4	3	Cincinnati	18.1	13.3	4.8
4	Arizona	16.0	14.1	1.9	4	Minnesota	18.8	14.4	4.4
5	Indianapolis	15.6	13.8	1.8	5	Detroit	20.6	16.5	4.1
6	Carolina	17.4	15.7	1.7	6	Pittsburgh	20.2	17.2	3.0
7	Pittsburgh	18.3	16.8	1.5	7	Tennessee	16.4	14.3	2.2
8	Tampa Bay	17.8	16.5	1.3	8	Green Bay	19.6	18.5	1.1
9	Detroit	15.0	13.8	1.2	9	Baltimore	17.0	16.0	1.0
10	Atlanta	17.6	16.5	1.0	10	Chicago	20.3	19.4	0.8
11	New Orleans	16.2	15.4	0.8	11	Denver	16.9	16.3	0.6
12	San Diego	17.8	17.0	0.8	12	Jacksonville	16.1	15.5	0.6
13	Seattle	16.2	15.9	0.3	13	Buffalo	17.9	17.4	0.5
14	Baltimore	17.1	16.9	0.2	14	Kansas City	14.9	14.4	0.5
15	Houston	16.6	NA	NA	15	Atlanta	18.4	17.9	0.4
16	Cleveland	19.1	19.1	0.0	16	Houston	13.0	NA	NA
17	Dallas	16.9	17.0	-0.1	17	Carolina	18.9	18.9	0.0
18	San Francisco	17.0	17.2	-0.2	18	Washington	14.5	14.9	-0.4
19	Green Bay	15.8	16.0	-0.3	19	NY Jets	17.3	17.7	-0.5
20	Chicago	15.9	16.1	-0.3	20	San Diego	17.2	17.8	-0.6
21	NY Giants	14.4	15.0	-0.6	21	Miami	18.6	19.4	-0.8
22	St Louis	16.3	16.9	-0.7	22	New Orleans	17.9	18.8	-1.0
23	Philadelphia	15.4	16.4	-0.9	23	Dallas	14.3	15.3	-1.0
24	Jacksonville	15.9	16.8	-1.0	24	New England	17.1	18.8	-1.7
25	NY Jets	16.3	17.4	-1.1	25	Oakland	12.5	14.8	-2.3
26	Kansas City	16.7	17.9	-1.2	26	Seattle	12.9	15.2	-2.3
27	Buffalo	15.1	16.5	-1.4	27	Indianapolis	13.8	16.3	-2.5
28	Miami	16.8	18.3	-1.5	28	Arizona	12.0	14.8	-2.8
29	Denver	17.2	18.7	-1.5	29	NY Giants	14.9	18.4	-3.4
30	Washington	16.4	18.2	-1.8	30	Philadelphia	12.3	15.9	-3.6
31	New England	15.1	17.1	-2.0	31	San Francisco	13.8	18.8	-5.0
32	Oakland	16.8	19.7	-2.9	32	St Louis	12.8	18.2	-5.4
At the top of the rankings, we see better days ahead for Steve McNair, Jon Kitna/Gus Frerotte, Daunte Culpepper, Jake Plummer, and Peyton Manning (another point against Dungification). Rounding out the QB rankings, we see tougher times for the likes of Shane Matthews/Danny Wuerffel/Sage Rosenfels/Patrick Ramsey, Tom Brady (sophomore slump is a distinct possibility, and Rich Gannon (with a shiney new contract). How interesting is it to see Washington stuck here at the bottom? Steve Spurrier's initial NFL campaign may see more busted visors than aerial TDs. Imagine an ineffective Matthews being yanked. Foresee an equally ineffective Sage Rosenfels giving way to Danny Wuerffel. It's musical chairs in D.C. Taking a quick look at the Texans, 16.6 is a fairly average number. David Carr could have a couple of decent games.					Let's start at the bottom. Let me be the first (OK, the 4,641st) to say, "Don't worry about Marshall Faulk". He doesn't understand the concept of Strength of Schedule. Faulk can do anything against anybody. On the other hand, Garrison Hearst/Kevan Barlow (lots of musical chairs are possible here), Tiki Barber/Ron Dayne (combined with that pitiful offensive line and both should be a tad flat), and Duce Staley (although with zero real competition, he could still improve) are very much human. At the top of the RB pile, things look almost rosy for Corey Dillon and Michael Pittman/Mike Alstott. Finally, welcome the 2002 NFL rookie of the year in William Green. A quick take on the Texans: 13.0 is a very low number. There will be very little success on the ground for any RB in Houston.
Rk	Wide Receiver	2002	2001	Dif	Rk	Tight End	2002	2001	Dif
1	Atlanta	19.4	15.1	4.3	1	Detroit	18.9	14.6	4.2
2	Carolina	19.1	15.0	4.1	2	Chicago	18.9	15.0	3.9
3	Indianapolis	16.0	12.8	3.2	3	Carolina	19.6	16.6	3.0
4	Tampa Bay	18.6	15.5	3.1	4	Dallas	14.6	11.7	2.8
5	Cincinnati	18.0	15.1	2.9	5	Tampa Bay	21.3	19.4	2.0
6	Arizona	16.3	13.9	2.3	6	San Diego	13.8	11.9	1.9
7	San Francisco	16.5	14.5	2.0	7	Green Bay	19.2	17.4	1.8
8	Tennessee	16.9	14.9	2.0	8	New Orleans	16.9	15.2	1.8
9	Pittsburgh	18.6	16.8	1.8	9	Miami	18.7	17.0	1.7
10	Minnesota	16.6	14.8	1.7	10	Indianapolis	17.3	16.4	0.9
11	Cleveland	19.6	18.1	1.6	11	Tennessee	17.4	16.5	0.9
12	Seattle	17.1	15.7	1.4	12	Minnesota	19.2	18.3	0.9
13	New Orleans	17.4	16.3	1.1	13	Atlanta	19.1	18.3	0.8
14	Baltimore	18.8	18.2	0.6	14	Cleveland	21.9	21.3	0.6
15	San Diego	17.4	17.2	0.3	15	Denver	14.3	13.8	0.4
16	Houston	15.7	NA	NA	16	Kansas City	14.0	13.7	0.3
17	Green Bay	15.8	16.5	-0.7	17	Oakland	15.1	15.0	0.0
18	Buffalo	14.9	15.6	-0.7	18	Baltimore	17.6	17.6	0.0
19	St Louis	16.9	17.7	-0.8	19	Houston	16.3	NA	NA
20	Detroit	14.0	14.8	-0.8	20	NY Jets	16.8	16.9	-0.1
21	NY Giants	13.6	14.5	-0.9	21	Philadelphia	13.3	13.5	-0.2
22	Chicago	15.5	16.8	-1.3	22	Pittsburgh	18.9	19.3	-0.4
23	Washington	16.3	17.7	-1.4	23	NY Giants	13.4	13.9	-0.5
24	Miami	15.9	17.6	-1.7	24	Buffalo	17.5	18.3	-0.8
25	Jacksonville	16.3	18.1	-1.8	25	Cincinnati	20.3	21.0	-0.8
26	New England	14.1	16.4	-2.3	26	New England	16.5	18.0	-1.5
27	NY Jets	14.3	16.6	-2.3	27	Seattle	12.6	14.1	-1.5
28	Dallas	16.7	19.2	-2.5	28	Jacksonville	15.9	17.4	-1.5
29	Kansas City	16.2	18.9	-2.7	29	Washington	15.1	17.3	-2.2
30	Denver	15.3	18.1	-2.8	30	Arizona	11.1	14.4	-3.3
31	Philadelphia	15.1	17.9	-2.9	31	St Louis	10.6	17.0	-6.3
32	Oakland	16.4	19.7	-3.3	32	San Francisco	12.9	20.5	-7.6
Wow, things look wide open for Willie Jackson and possibly even Brian Finneran to post decent stats. Don't be surprised by better numbers from Muhsin Muhammad, Marvin Harrison (is that possible?), and Keyshawn Johnson (like he wouldn't improve upon one TD). Be a little wary of James Thrash, Rod Smith, Tim Brown, and Jerry Rice as the going will be tougher for each. Looking in on Houston finds a slightly below average number of 15.7. With their current collection of WRs, does it really matter?					As the Lions have not come up with a late FA signing, it appears Mikhael Ricks could be a deep sleeper candidate at TE. Granted, it's a long shot, but stranger things have happened as Ricks is a former WR. You might consider taking a shot with the Bears' tight end (too bad they don't really have one). If Wesley Walls can stay healthy, he'll have another good year. Tony McGee and Ken Dilger looked poised for success with their respective new teams. Freddie Jones doesn't appear to be so fortunate. Ernie Conwell will struggle to match his 2001 numbers. Finally, let someone else go after Eric Johnson.
Rk	Place Kicker	2002	2001	Dif	Rk	Defense/Spec Team	2002	2001	Dif
1	Tennessee	18.4	13.1	5.3	1	Detroit	19.1	13.3	5.8
2	Cincinnati	20.1	15.1	5.0	2	Minnesota	19.8	14.8	4.9
3	Cleveland	18.0	14.9	3.1	3	Tampa Bay	19.7	15.2	4.5
4	Indianapolis	17.6	15.0	2.7	4	Cleveland	18.7	14.6	4.1
5	Detroit	15.9	13.5	2.3	5	Carolina	19.7	15.7	3.9
6	Jacksonville	17.5	15.2	2.3	6	Cincinnati	19.0	15.6	3.4
7	Pittsburgh	20.5	18.5	2.0	7	Atlanta	18.5	15.4	3.1
8	Tampa Bay	15.8	14.4	1.4	8	New Orleans	19.4	16.5	2.9
9	Dallas	15.9	14.5	1.4	9	Indianapolis	19.2	16.6	2.6
10	Minnesota	14.9	13.9	1.1	10	NY Jets	17.6	15.4	2.2
11	Atlanta	17.9	17.0	0.9	11	Baltimore	17.6	15.5	2.1
12	Chicago	16.7	15.9	0.8	12	Pittsburgh	20.7	19.1	1.6
13	Carolina	15.4	15.0	0.4	13	Miami	16.8	15.3	1.5
14	NY Jets	18.3	18.1	0.2	14	Tennessee	18.9	18.0	0.9
15	Baltimore	16.6	16.6	0.0	15	Jacksonville	16.1	15.2	0.8
16	Houston	18.3	NA	NA	16	Buffalo	17.2	16.6	0.6
17	Kansas City	17.0	17.2	-0.2	17	Philadelphia	15.7	15.7	0.0
18	Washington	15.8	16.5	-0.7	18	Houston	15.9	NA	NA
19	Arizona	14.4	15.2	-0.9	19	Green Bay	19.6	19.9	-0.3
20	Green Bay	16.5	17.5	-1.0	20	Dallas	15.8	16.3	-0.5
21	Miami	19.1	20.2	-1.1	21	Chicago	18.1	19.0	-0.9
22	NY Giants	15.8	17.2	-1.5	22	NY Giants	16.0	17.2	-1.2
23	Denver	17.2	18.7	-1.5	23	Kansas City	12.6	13.9	-1.4
24	San Francisco	14.8	16.8	-2.0	24	Washington	15.0	16.7	-1.7
25	Oakland	16.4	18.5	-2.1	25	Denver	12.2	14.6	-2.5
26	San Diego	16.8	18.8	-2.1	26	Oakland	11.5	14.8	-3.3
27	Buffalo	15.4	17.5	-2.1	27	New England	14.6	19.0	-4.4
28	Philadelphia	15.1	17.4	-2.3	28	San Diego	13.7	18.1	-4.4
29	New England	15.3	17.7	-2.5	29	Seattle	12.4	17.0	-4.6
30	New Orleans	14.4	16.9	-2.5	30	St Louis	12.8	18.1	-5.3
31	St Louis	13.9	16.7	-2.8	31	Arizona	11.7	18.5	-6.8
32	Seattle	13.4	17.7	-4.2	32	San Francisco	12.3	19.4	-7.2
It's a widely held opinion that accurately ranking PKs is one of the most difficult tasks in fantasy football. No argument here. If you're one that prefers to take a PK late in your draft, consider the rookie Travis Dorsch from Cincinnati, Cleveland's Phil Dawson, or the vastly underrated Joe Nedney in Tennessee. Don't gamble on Rian Lindell from Seattle. Side note: Jeff Wilkins = scoring, but there might be quite as much of it this season.					The 49ers took giant steps forward in 2001, but look for them to take some baby steps back this year. Arizona was horrid last year. Expect more of the same. The Rams won't be as dominant this go around. Let's take a gander at the top. How on earth can a sane human recommend the Lions defense/special teams? Let's remember that a #1 ranking doesn't mean Detroit's the #1 Def/ST. They merely have the easiest schedule compared to their 2001 campaign. By the same token, the Vikings will be a better option this year than last. Will Tampa Bay really improve without Tony Dungy? Could be as they weren't exactly stellar last year. Look for strides from Cleveland, Carolina, and Cincinnati.

Key:
'Rk' is each team's rank.
'2002' is each team's average opponent's rank in each position.
'2001' is each team's average opponents' rank in each position.
NA is not available as Houston did not play in 2001.
'Dif' is the difference between the '2002' and '2001'.
Note: Positive 'Dif' values are good while negative 'Dif' values are bad.

Scoring system:
Offensive scoring
TD passing = 4 points
TD rushing/receiving = 6 points
Passing yards = 1 point per 20 yards
Rushing/receiving yards = 1 point per 10 yards
INT = (-1) point
Two-point conversion (by any method) = 2 points
FG = 3 points
PAT = 1 point

Defensive scoring
TD Return = 6 points
INT = 2 points
Fumble recovery = 2 points
Sack = 1 point
Safety = 2 points

Defensive points allowed:
0 = 12 points
1 to 6 = 9 points
7 to 12 = 6 points
13 to 18 = 3 points
19 to 24 = 0 points
25 to 30 = (-3) points
31 to 36 = (-6) points
37 or more = (-9) points

Defensive yards allowed:
1 to 149 = 12 points
150 to 199 = 9 points
200 to 249 = 6 points
250 to 299 = 3 points
300 to 349 = 0 points
350 to 399 = (-3) points
400 to 449 = (-6) points
450 or more = (-9) points