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I have been involved in a number of mock drafts so far this year, and have seen all kinds of strategies used. I like to try a variety of ideas when I take part in a mock draft. In some, I will see what effect drafting from the different slots will have on my final team, and try to form a plan of action for each. My strategy will vary if I am given a very early or very late pick. In others, I will let my sleepers fall until someone else takes them, and then make a judgment on where I should target them when I am drafting for real. I have seen some interesting picks so far this year. One trend that is repeated in virtually every draft, is that Tampa's defense is drafted much earlier than I would ever expect any defense to be targeted. The current draft position for Tampa's defense according to AntSports is 7.05 in a twelve team league. Other players available at that point in the draft might include Matt Hasselbeck, Tom Brady, Rod Gardner, Jerry Porter, T.J. Duckett or Mike Alstott. I would rather add depth at one of the main skill positions, than select my defense in the 7th round. This analysis is intended to give you some solid reasons and hard facts for letting one of your opponents take the plunge on Tampa in the 7th. After a few games last year, I started to think differently about defenses. I have always been a guy to keep two defenses on my roster if I can get two of the top 10, as it can be very beneficial to play the one with the best matchup each week. I noticed that the Houston Texans had a terrible offensive line, and that virtually any team that faced them was likely to score plenty of fantasy points. I started to compile a cheat sheet showing how many points each team allowed to opposing defenses. Most of my fantasy leagues are with Fanball, and the scoring system for defenses is as follows:
If you consider that David Carr was sacked 76 times last year, that is an average of 4.75 times a game, or 9.5 fantasy points in the above scoring system. That is just the sack total. Add in all the other defensive scoring, and you can see how it could be a good strategy to target teams with weak offensive lines or those that have a QB with a slow release. Under my leagues scoring system, Tampa were the top defense last year with 221 points. No other defense scored over 200, and fantasy owners are reacting this year by placing an extremely high value on Tampa's defense. I found that a good tactic last year was to pick up any defense from the waiver wire that happened to be facing Houston in that week. Even the lowest scoring defenses were likely to get me more fantasy points against Houston than my drafted defensive team would score in their matchup that particular week. The Rams eventually allowed even more points than the Texans, largely because of the 64 points allowed in weeks 13 and 14. Let's take a closer look at the points allowed by every team last year. Your league may vary slightly from this scoring system, and could include points for blocked kicks or keeping opponents under a certain number of points etc. This analysis will use the Fanball scoring to illustrate my ideas, but the logic should follow for most formats. 2002 Fantasy Points Allowed By Week
Initial Thoughts Looking at the above league table of points allowed, the first thing that strikes me is that if I had started every defense that played the Rams or the Texans last year, I would have got more fantasy points than if I had simply started the Tampa defense each week. Another thing I noticed was that the teams in the top part of the table were quite predictable. Looking at the top 10 in the list; the Rams had 11 games where they conceded 10 or more points, the Texans had 13, the Vikings 11, the Bills 9, the Panthers 11, the Bengals 8, the Cowboys 10, the Ravens 10, the Cardinals 8, and the Redskins 9. That is a total of 100 games in which a team allowed 10 points or more, or 62.5% of games. Looking at the top 10 defenses in my scoring system last year; Tampa's defense had 11 games where they scored 10 or more points, the Falcons 7, the Eagles 10, the Packers 9, the Raiders 8, the Panthers 9, the Saints 10, the Steelers 10, the Ravens 8, and the Dolphins 9. That is a total of 91 games in which a top 10 defense managed 10 or more points, or 56.9% of games. It seems to me that you are more likely to score consistent points by targeting a team that allows defenses to score on them, as opposed to spending a high draft pick on a defense that is expected to do well. With more and more information out there for fantasy owners, any small edge over an opponent can make the difference between winning and losing a game. In the above example, you would have been about 10% more likely to score 10 points or more, by using the strategy of targeting the offenses that allowed the most points. Another advantage in doing this is that you won't be spending a 7th round pick to get a defense like Tampa's. That pick will give you more chance of building depth elsewhere, and by being active on the waiver wire and looking at which teams allow the most points, you can still get defensive output equal to or greater than that of a top defense. Also bear in mind that defenses do not always perform up to the previous year's level. Think of the dominating Baltimore Ravens defense in 2000. They scored 202 points in my scoring system that year, and followed by posting 159 points the year after. Tampa managed 232 points in 2000 and then followed up with 172 points. Both teams still had good defenses, but would hardly merit a pick in the 7th round. The Bears defense fell from 207 points in 2001 to 114 points last year. The Browns went from 207 points in 2001 to 122 points last year. Tampa's defense was incredible in 2002, but why risk such a high pick when such dramatic changes can happen? I would suggest that a better strategy would be to wait and draft a defense that you consider to be a top 10 prospect in a later round. Then look to compliment that production by targeting teams on a weekly basis that allow a lot of points to defenses. This can be done through waiver wire acquisitions once you build some data on the trends for 2003. This strategy is more flexible because you can adjust from week to week, rather than using a high draft pick on a team that could suffer a decline. You can never have that draft pick back. Reasons For Tampa's Outstanding Defensive Year Part of the reason for Tampa's defensive fantasy output last year was obviously the quality of their defensive personnel. I am not trying to say that they didn't deserve to top fantasy scoring tables. After all, their defense did go a long way to winning the team a Super Bowl in 2002. A good NFL defense is not always necessary for a team to be a productive fantasy defense however, as big plays are more important than the number of points or wins that a team achieves (in most systems at least). The Saints finished 7th in my scoring system last year, despite allowing more points than 25 NFL teams. So is there anything else that would suggest why Tampa led defenses in fantasy scoring last year? Let's take a look at who they played in 2002, and where that opponent was ranked in defensive points allowed:
Out of those 16 games, Tampa only played one team that was outside the top 20 in points allowed. I realize that by scoring well against a team that allowed a lot of points, Tampa contributed towards their total. Despite that, it still looks as though they faced some of the weaker teams during last year. Success Or Failure? A Detailed Look Did Tampa's defense score 10 or more points in each week?
So Tampa scored 6 defensive TDs. That was an outstanding total but it is a statistic that is fairly random and one that cannot be relied upon to happen again. That is also true of the safety and the two shutouts. Tampa played around half of their games under abnormal circumstances: Three games against QBs that were in their first or second career start (Redman, Fasani, Burris), one game against a guy coming in for an injured starter (Doug Johnson with two previous career starts), and other games against QBs that were struggling with injury (Warner, Favre, Brooks). Tampa's 2003 Schedule
Looking at the schedule for this year, I would be surprised if Tampa line up against as many inexperienced QBs as they did last year. The Panthers might be one, as are the Cowboys and the Redskins, but most teams should have an experienced guy under center. Tampa will also face a number of teams ranked in the bottom half in points allowed to defenses in 2002 (Falcons 20 twice, Colts 29, 49ers 31, Packers 25, Giants 30, Jaguars 21, Titans 22). That's half of their games by last year's standings, as opposed to just five games against bottom half teams last year. I would not be comfortable using a 7th round pick on a defense that had so many things go their way last year. A more reliable indication of defensive strength might be the number of sacks they achieved. This shows how much pressure a team exerts on opposing offenses, and in my opinion is more likely to be repeated than defensive TDs, safeties and shutouts. Last year's sack leading teams were the Eagles (58), Panthers (53), Steelers (51), Falcons (48), Dolphins (46), Tampa(44), Packers (43), Raiders (43), and the Broncos (41). I particularly like the Panthers this year with Peppers set to play a full season after missing the last four games through suspension last year. Their young defense should be improving, and a healthy Dan Morgan could make a difference at MLB. Minter and Rucker will also help make the Panthers a defensive force again this year. Their current average draft position at AntSports for a twelve team league is 11.06; a full four rounds later than Tampa. Summation Tampa's defense is very strong but not worthy of such a high pick. After looking at the reasons for their success last year, please consider how likely it is that things will go the same way for them in 2003. That mid-round pick could strengthen your team elsewhere. A value defense a few rounds later, coupled with active use of the waiver wire, could gain you much more production from your team defenses this year. Consider keeping a spreadsheet of points allowed to defenses as the season progresses, then target the teams that allow the most points. Many Super Bowls are won with a strong defense. Will you win your league with defense in 2003? |
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