Capitalizing on Diligent Preparation
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Posted 8/19 by John Bair - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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For many fantasy players that have always enjoyed doing their "homework"
and putting in many hours of research in preparation for draft day, the advent
of cheatsheets and the proliferation of updated internet player projections
were not necessarily welcomed events. Until recently, monitoring the news from
the various preseason training camps and applying Joe Bryant's value based draft
techniques were enough to set most fantasy owners apart from their competition
who were relying primarily on information contained in a stack of June-issue
fantasy magazines. By the time the pizza arrived on draft day, it would already
be apparent whose teams would be contenders and whose would not. Now, under
many league formats, the hard earned advantages of thorough draft preparation
are all but lost.
In a recent interview, nine-time world champion of poker, Doyle Brunson, lamented
that he has had to completely change his style of poker since giving away all
of his secrets in his definitive book on poker. By studying his book, average
poker players have been able to learn the lessons, and apply the techniques,
that it took Doyle a lifetime to formulate. Thanks to the magic of technology,
and the widespread popularity of internet fantasy football sites, the cat is
similarly out of the bag with regard to many of the secrets of fantasy league
dominance. Players with at least average intelligence can now compete with the
thoroughly prepared on draft day by simply printing out some custom-made cheatsheets
on the eve of the draft. With that in mind, those fantasy owners that have been
gearing up for the draft for months now may want to consider the following suggestions
for maximizing the advantage gained from their superior football knowledge and
draft preparation.
- Play in leagues comprised of at least twelve teams. Stretch
that draft out and you can capitalize on the errors that less prepared players
will commit in the middle to later rounds.
- Argue for a longer, deeper draft. Again, the idea is to stretch the
talent pool to make the draft more challenging and to increase the advantage
resulting from your advance preparation. While cheatsheets will prevent the
less-knowledgeable owner from making many crucial errors in the first six
rounds of the draft, they will quickly begin to loose their value in subsequent
rounds where your knowledge of team depth charts, offensive schemes and schedule
strengths will have you much better equipped. Near the end of a long draft,
those owners relying on commercial cheatsheets will be making picks as if
they are throwing darts at a dart board while you will be selecting sleeper
picks that you know have substantial upside value.
- Require a TE roster spot. This should be considered for two reasons.
First, this is one more offensive position that you are probably already monitoring
but your competition is ignoring. Second, by including TEs as a must-fill
roster spot rather than lumping them in with the WRs, you increase the position's
value and, considering the disparity in value between TE1 and TE12, you create
an opportunity for yourself to snag some real positional value in the middle
rounds of your draft. The same principle applies to requiring individual defensive
player roster spots but good luck trying to get a recreationally-minded league
to open that Pandora's box.
- Try to convince your fellow owners to forgo charging fees for waiver
wire transactions. These fees may limit your choices of draft strategy
by making it overly expensive to employ a QBBC or DF/STBC strategy. If you
would rather fill your roster with sleepers than backup Kickers and Defenses,
than you will be spending a good bit of time working the waiver wire.
- Engage in plenty of smack talk. If you have put together a great
draft day package of materials, then you should know enough about the draft
pool to positively improve your picks through smack talk. While others will
be unlikely to affect your well-thought-out player projections, those owners
who are blindly relying on some website's projections will be much more likely
to second guess their figures based upon information they hear during the
draft. If nothing else, chat up those magazine articles about the fallacy
of the 2 Stud RB theory or the necessity of handcuffing your RB1 to his backup.
Then, load up on the value when they foolishly go QB or WR in the first two
rounds of this year's draft. Later, you can pick up a top ten QB for even
more value when the owner ahead of you grabs J. Fenderson to handcuff to Duce
McAllister.
- Avoid gimmicky point schemes that arbitrarily award the lucky team owner.
While it makes sense to award additional bonus points for field goals that
exceed 50 yards, I have seen leagues award as many as 10 points for such an
achievement. Also, some leagues award as many as 7 points for a SAFETY because
safeties are "cool." While these rule variations don't add up to
a significant increase in awarded points over the course of the season, these
extra points can unfairly affect the results of a head to head matchup. Imagine
the frustration you might feel missing the playoffs as the result of Peyton
Manning taking a meaningless safety near the end of a game!
Just like in poker where "anyone with a chip and a chair" has a shot
at getting lucky in the short run and beating even the best professional poker;
cheatsheet wielding fantasy neophytes can often get the best of a seasoned fantasy
pro if he doesn't take steps to limit the affect of luck and increase the advantage
gained through draft preparation. Utilizing these concepts should, hopefully,
help in that regard.
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