Blitz Packages - Week 17
December 27th, 2002


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Eagles @ Giants (Sat.)

Eagles: Both teams are doing a good job keeping the rush away from the QB. That said, you can't really sit a stud like Hugh Douglas, but if he was going to come up small, this would be the week to do it. LBs Barber and Emmons are low-average plays - I expect them to get 5-7 tackles. Should the Eagles be able to get pressure on Collins, he will account for at least one turnover. I think it will be an interception, and either Taylor or Dawkins will get it. Lewis will have an average day for tackles - 6-8.

Giants: As with the Eagle DL, you really can't sit Strahan, but he will have trouble getting to Feeley. LBs Short and Barrow will be average to low average in tackles - 6-9. If you need a long shot this week, DB Sehorn could be it. I think he'll get matched up on Freeman and wind up picked on a lot.


Chiefs @ Raiders (Sat.)

Chiefs: Oakland is pretty average in keeping DL off Gannon, so the Chief DL will be average as well. 1-2 sacks for them and probably one from a LB. My guess is that the LB to get it would be Fujita. DL tackles will be 5-7. LB Maslowski had a solid 8 tackles week 16. But the previous week, DEN LB Wilson has 9 tackles against the Raiders. Maslowski should easily get that, and I think will wind up with 11. The DBs are beatable and will get picked on, so look for 6-8 from them.

Raiders: While the Chiefs have only given up 5 sacks the past month, the Oakland line should be able to get 2-3. Coleman could get one, but his tackle totals should be solid as well (4-6). LBs Barton and Harris will get about what they had last week (7-9 tackles). Rod Woodson is still on fire and is a must-start. He should get a pick this week too. The other DBs will get 5-7 tackles.


Ravens @ Steelers

Ravens: The only Raven DL still worth starting is Boulware, and that's only because he switches between LB and DL. Hartwell makes a really good play this week and will hit at least 10 tackles. DB Reed should get 6-9 tackles against Bettis as well. If Maddox can't go, Kordell is in and he should throw one interception. My guess is McAlister gets it.
Steelers: Avoid the DL as usual. They will get 3-5 tackles. The Ravens run game won't generate more than an average amount of tackles (5-9 in this alignment), so the LBs aren't fantastic plays. Bell is on fire and should get yet another sack. The DBs are unspectacular and will get 4-6.


Cowboys @ Redskins

Cowboys: Man does this team look like it has packed it in. They are averaging a sack per game this month. And the tackle totals have really fallen off. Even so, Greg Ellis is a viable starter in big leagues, as a #2 DL. The LBs will get 6-9 tackles. DB Williams is the only must start at DB with Derek Ross out.

Redskins: DL Smith had a great week against the Texans, but he'll go back to his old self here. Don't bother with him. The game is pretty average for tackles for both LBs and DBs. Give the LBs 8-10 and the DBs 5-7.


Panthers @ Saints

Panthers: The Saints are allowing over three sacks per game (average). DL Jenkins and Rucker will cause problems for Brooks. They should also have nice tackle totals (5-7) thanks to the running game. That makes the LBs, Witherspoon and Fields, good starts as well (9-11). As usual, the DBs are good plays and will get you 5-8 tackles.

Saints: The Saint DL will have an OK day against a line allowing three sacks per game as well. Whitehead and Howard should get sacks. The Panther running game is really hurting, so Hand isn't a good start unless you have better options. That makes the LBs bad plays too (4-6 tackles). With Peete at QB, the Panthers are throwing one pick per game and he's fumbling once every two games. Hello, Sammy Knight. He should get a pick and six tackles. If Knight doesn't get one, Bellamy should.


Falcons @ Browns

Falcons: The Browns O line is no great shakes, and so Kerney should get at least a sack. You can't sit that guy, anyway. Brooking will have a down day since the D should be able to easily control and hem in RB Green. Couch is throwing nearly two interceptions per game. Give one to DB Carpenter.

Browns: LB Holmes should have another good game chasing Dunn around (9-11) tackles. However, he has been inconsistent enough in the past to prevent me from ranking him as anything higher than a #2 LB. DB Griffith will get you 6-8 tackles.


Vikings @ Lions

Vikings: This game should be easily won by the Vikings. They should control big gobs of the clock, and that hurts all their IDPs. Give the LBs 5-7 tackles and the DL 3-5. McMahon will throw 1, and probably 2, picks. Give one to Bradford and one to Kelly. They will have 3-5 tackles and 1-2 PDs.

Lions: The Viking line has been really porous - 4 sacks/game, average. Porcher will get one, and Edwards and Shaun Rogers probably as well. Rogers will get six tackles. The LB tackles will be decent, in the range of 8-10. Culpepper throws a pick per game. Give one to DB Goodman. Walker has been getting the job done tackling, and will have at least six.


Titans @ Texans

Titans: Wow, what a team for a rebounding Kearse to pull this week. Start whatever Titan DL that can be found. The Texan RBs don't generate enough tackles. I think it will look like the Ravens game two weeks ago - one LB will get most of the tackles, with scraps for the rest. Give Bulluck 8-10, and 3-4 for the other LBs. But Bulluck could easily come up small here, and split tackles with the other LBs, so he's not a lock for that total. DB Schulters should get 4-6 tackles and a Carr interception.

Texans: The Texan DL will have trouble getting to McNair, never mind catching him. Seth Payne has been the most consistent player lately, so if I HAD to start a Texan DL he'd be it. But don't look for much. However, Foreman and Sharper should be great plays (10+ tackles) against RB George. Even Posey should make a decent starter this week. DB Brown will continue getting picked on and get you 5-7 tackles.


Bengals @ Bills

Bengals: Given the way the Bill OL has played lately, Justin Smith is a nice upside play this week. He should finish with a sack and 3-5 tackles. Give LB Spikes 8 tackles and a Travis Henry FR. Simmons will hit 6 tackles. DB Hawkins has been cold, so start him and hope for a late Bledsoe Xmas gift interception.

Bills: The Bills won't have an easy time sacking Kitna. Schobel is your best bet for one, but the probability is low. If Dillon starts, Fletcher will have an ok day with 8-10 tackles. Otherwise he'll fall off and you should start someone else. The DBs will get 4-6 tackles, and one of them will get the inevitable Kitna interception. I'll say Winfield nabs it.


Dolphins @ Patriots

Dolphins: Jason Taylor is beyond stud and into the monster range. Start the guy no matter what. He is freeing up the other players on the DL. Ogunleye has been benefiting the most lately, and will wind up with 3-5 tackles and a sack. The Patriots ran enough to give Cowart and Jones of the Jets good tackle totals last week, so Zach Thomas will still be fine. Brady will throw an interception, and I'm giving it to Brock Marion.

Patriots: The Dolphin OL is protecting well, so the Patriot DL are starters of last resort. 2-3 tackles are what you are looking at, and maybe one sack. As long as the Dolphins don't get off their game plan (Ricky, Ricky, and more Ricky), the Patriot LBs (Johnson, Phifer and Vrabel) should be fine at 8-10 tackles. The DBs will get you about half that.


Jaguars @ Colts

Jaguars: The Colts are not generating many tackles, so the pickings will be average to bad. Last week, against the Giants, the best tackler was LB Short at 8 tackles. Figure 6-8, with Ayodele and Clark at the high end of that. DB Darius will be at that range as well.

Colts: DL Bratzke and Scioli would have a decent chance for getting sacks, against a Jacksonville line giving up over three per game. But both are questionable this week. Watch the injury report and move them up accordingly if they can play. The Jaguars' running attack also isn't generating tackling opportunities, so the tackle totals for the Colt LBs will be about the same - 7-9. DB Gibson has been playing well, but now HE is questionable this week. Give the Colts DBs 4-6 tackles.


Packers @ Jets

Packers: The Jet OL will not allow much pressure. Holliday and Gbaja-Biamila have the best chance to get a sack. RB Martin will get them nice tackle totals too. I'm betting on a down day from Holliday - a come down off his emotional week 15. The LBs will get 8-10, with Wayne likely to get the larger amount. He should get a sack as well. The Packer DBs will get between 6-8 tackles and 1-2 PDs.

Jets: The Packer OL isn't allowing many sacks either. Abraham and Ellis have been generating a lot of pressure and some sacks, but this week that should be brought in check. I think Abraham will get one and 4-6 tackles. The LBs will be between 7-10.


Seahawks @ Chargers

Seahawks: The only noteworthy plays here are at LB and DB. LB Simmons should do well against Marty Ball and RB Tomlinson. Last week against KC, Maslowski faced Tomlinson and got 7-1-0. Simmons will get that and always has the possibility to get a sack with his speed. DB Tongue should also fare well, with 6-8 tackles. The other DBs will get 4-6.

Chargers: Some surprise production could be had here from the Charger DL, sack-wise. If you need a long shot play give them a try. LB Edwards I expect to have a really down day at about 6-9 tackles. I think that the Chargers will control the game and the Seahawks will get away from the run. Harrison should have a pretty good outing at 7-9 tackles.


Cardinals @ Broncos

Cardinals: Denver hasn't been protecting the QB well lately, and that's good news for Vanden Bosch. Give him a sack and 3-5 tackles. Last week against Oakland, the LBs facing Portis got 6-9 tackles. Look for the same here. I think McKinnon will be the best play at 9. DB Wilson would be a nice start here since the odds of a pick are high, but he's questionable.

Broncos: The Cards are yielding almost 4 sacks per game, so Pryce makes another nice start this week. Shipp generated 7-9 tackles last week against the 49ers. I think that will be less here, with one DEN LB getting most of them. I believe that one will be Wilson, who has been playing at a consistently high level. The turnover machine known as Jake Plummer will probably throw another pick. Let's give it to O'Neal.


Bucs @ Bears (SNF)

Bucs: The Bears could actually win this game since they usually beat TB when it's cold. Sapp is questionable, but the real sack threat has been Rice. Against an average Bear OL, he should get one sack and 4-6 tackles. Brooks should have a down game since the Bear running game has been so ineffective.

Bears: If Rob Johnson start, and it looks like he's going to, then I will upgrade the Bear DL since he holds on to the ball way too long. Daniels and Brown could both get sacks in that scenario. Urlacher will get 7-9 tackles, but after him there won't be many tackles to be had. DB Green hits anything that moves, and he should easily match 7-8 tackles.


49ers @ Rams (MNF)

49ers: The Rams OL has gotten porous, and that's great news for Andre Carter. I think he'll get two sacks and six tackles. The 49ers should control this game early, so the tackle totals for the LBs will be low. Smith will get 7-8, and he'll be the best of the bunch. Tony Parrish should get 5 tackles and an interception against the 3rd string QB.

Rams: The Rams have the look of a team trying to get to the next tee time. Wistrom will find the going tough against an OL that has been doing a great job. The Ram LBs should all get at least 6 tackles, and will be within range of 10 if the game goes the way I think. Polley will be the best bet to get that total. Archuleta should get 7-9, but he has been off lately, and I wonder if his discouragement is keeping his play down. Kim Herring has been out tackling him, and could easily get 7-9 if Archuleta doesn't.


Always start your studs!
Tom Nadratowski
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