Blitz Package - Week 4
September 28th, 2002
Bye teams: 49ers, Colts, Falcons, Redskins
Bears @ Bills
Bears: The Bears DL is not producing sacks - they had one only in week three. The Bears LBs have all the teams' sacks - for the season. Until that situation corrects itself start Colvin for his sack potential as well as Urlacher. Colvin and SS Mike Brown should get about six tackles.
Bills: MLBs facing the Bears have done OK - about 5-7 tackles (Wk 1 MIN: Crockett 5-1-0, WLB Biekert 3-1-0; Wk 2 ATL ILB Brooking 5-1-0 [led all ATL LBs that week]; Wk 3 NO MLB Clemons 3-1-0 but 3 PDs, LB Hodge 6-0-0, LB Smith 4-2-0). But the SS and quite often a CB facing them have been equally good and sometimes great plays (Wk1 MIN SS Offord 6-0-0, 1 pick, Wk 2 ATL SS McBurroughs 0-0-0 but CB Ambrose 5-2-0; Wk 3 NO SS 10-1-0, 1 pick and CB Hawthorne 8-2-0). The most likely culprits this week are CB Winfield, FS Prioleau and SS Coy Wire. It is likely that LB Fletcher will get 5-7, and LB Newman 3-5.
Cowboys @ Rams, Saints @ Lions
It is likely in these games that the Cowboys and the Lions are going to get destroyed. The Rams are looking for a slumpbuster and the Lions are hoping they aren't lambs in a slaughter.
Cowboys: Coakley 8-10 tackles, Hardy 6-8, SS Woodson 7-10, FS R Williams 5-9.
Rams: Look for DAL QB Carter to throw at least one pick. STL SS Archuleta should be started as a #2 DB at best (figure 4-6 tackles and 1-3 pds) since the Rams should win this one easily, but since someone put Elvis Grbac in Warner's body and the offense could implode, he could break out with a bunch of tackles again. STL DB A Williams is also a good #2 start with upside - 3-5 and a pick.
Lions: Claiborne had a big game week three but I'm not convinced it signals a breakout. Slate him for 5-8 and hope for more. Any of the DBs could break out and have an 8-10 tackle day but they've been taking turns doing so. Figure they'll all get around six tackles and 2-4 PDs, while one hits nine tackles. Corey Harris and Eric Brown are the best plays here.
Saints: MLB Clemons 6-8 and 1-3 PDs, SLB Hodge 4-7, CB Hawthorne 4-6, 2-5 PDs, SS Knight 6-8, 1-2 PDs. QB Harrington should again throw 1-2 picks, and Hawthorne and Knight remain the main culprits to get them.
Panthers @ Packers
Packers: With the Packers looking more chump than champ, this could play into the Panthers' hands since they want to feature a grinding running game with Lamar Smith. The injuries hampering the Pack won't help any. So WLB Wayne could be huge, 8-10 tackles and maybe a sack. Nickerson could actually be useful too. Marques Anderson will be in the 5-8 range in tackles as well.
Panthers: The Packers will try and get RB Green back on track, so Dan Morgan remains a must start with 9-12 tackles not out of reach. CB Howard will have 6-9 as well as 1-2 PDs. Mike Rucker has been hot so start him until he cools off. Green Bay isn't yielding many sacks so play Peppers only if you have no other option. ***UPDATE - LB Morgan missed practice again Thursday. Lester Towns is his backup if Morgan can't play. If Towns should go, 6-8 tackles seems about right.
Texans @ Eagles
Texans: The Eagles are surrendering 3.3 sacks per game. With the 3-4 scheme, the LBs should get those sacks. All of the Texan LBs have gotten sacks this season except ILB Posey, and I see no reason for that to change. I'd say that this week Sharper will get two sacks and Wong one. The Saint DL should limit the Texan DL to no sacks. Aaron Glenn has been seeing a lot of action and remains a must start.
Eagles: Too bad Corey Simon is out - Houston is still hemorrhaging sacks (6.3 per game). So start Hugh Douglas, Darwin Walker and even Brandon Whiting is a good play this week. Linebackers facing the Texans have fared well (Wk1 DAL: Nguyen 7-0-1, Coakley 7-0-1, Hardy 5-0-0 but 2 PDs; Wk2 SD: Seau 7-0-1 1 INT 2 PDs, Edwards 4-3-0.5; Wk 3 IND: Peterson 6-6-0 1 PD, Washington 6-0-1 1 FR). So WLB Shawn Barber should also get a sack as well 6-10 tackles, and Kirkland and Emmons 5-9 as well.
Dolphins @ Chiefs
Dolphins: Zach Thomas owners must be salivating at starting him this week against RB Holmes. Figure 8-10 for him. Trent Green may be able to catch a break this week since Jason Taylor is supposed to play, but with a knee brace. Don't look for many Dolphin sacks - they're only giving up a little over one per game. Still, Green will probably throw 1-2 picks this week, and DBs Marion and Madison are the prime suspects to catch them. Give them both 3-5 tackles and 1-2 PDs as well.
Chiefs: Run Ricky run, and start LBs Maslowski (9-12) and Patton (6-9). DB Williams Bartee should also get 8-10 stops, and DB Belser 6-9. There won't be many sacks here either, but DL Hicks and Clemons are good enough to start unless you have better options or a better matchup. Two out of the three weeks that opponents have played the Dolphins the opposing DL has gotten between 6-8 tackles, so Hick and Clemons will contribute there for you if nothing else.***UPDATE - Jason Taylor practiced Thursday. On Monday it was reported that Taylor was sore but expected to play this weekend. Since he has practiced and the reports all wekk have been favourable, Taylor will probably start this week.
Browns @ Steelers
Browns: Here's a stat anomaly: the TOP favors the Browns by over four minutes. However against the Steelers that should be proven to be an anomaly. That could change if Coach Davis would actually stick with Jamel White. Still, the Steelers will feature their ground game and a couple of Stewart interceptions. Give LB Rudd 5-7 and a sack. LB Holmes is a gamble. Did he finally break out last week with his 8-1-0 showing or will he fade back? I think against his former team he'll be fired up and be decent, 6-8 tackles. DL Courtney Brown is back so start him for his potential and hope for 3-5 tackles and a sack. Kenard Lang is a good play if you need a long shot.The Steelers are only yielding just over one sack per game.
Steelers: Porter is a stud and you always start them. If the Browns develop a running game then Farrior is a good play, but hold off on him unless you have a better play or want to take a long shot. Tim Couch will probably throw one pick since I don't think the Browns are going to air it out much. Start PIT DBs Chad Scott and Lee Flowers (3-5 and 1-3 PDs).
Jets @ Jaguars
Jets: This team is in trouble on offense. So start ILBs Jones and Cowart who should get you 9-12 tackles. DB Damien Robinson is back and should hit 6-8 tackles.
Jaguars: The Jags are beatable, but only if the Jets get RB Jordan involved heavily and early, which by all accounts they will do this week. That favors the Jaguar LBs. But LB Wali Rainer has done nothing, so bench him until he shows up. One of the other LBs will get 6-9 tackles. They have been taking turns doing so and this week I think It's Westmoreland's turn. DB Darius and McCree make nice plays at 5-7 each, and McCree will probably get a pick. The Jets are yielding a tad over three sacks per game, so that's good news for a healthy DL Brackens who will probably get one and 3-5 tackles too.
Buccaneers @ Bengals
Bucs: The sack potential for Sapp/Rice is good since the Bengals are letting 3.3 sacks go per week. I think the Bengals will give up five given how they are playing, so play Sapp (3-5 tackles) for sure and Rice (1-3) if you need a #2. Derrick Brooks is back and remains a must start. Ditto for Ronde Barber, who has a bunch of tackles and PDs on the year but oddly no interceptions. He should get his first this week against Akili Smith.
Bengals: Spikes is an auto-start, and should wind up with 7-10 tackles and maybe a sack. LB Ross will hit 6-9. DBs Corey Hall and Artrell Hawkins have been the most consistent scorers. Still they are average plays with upside if the Bucs get Pittman rumbling. Hall should be around 6-9 and Hawkins 4-6.***UPDATE - LB Brooks practiced Thursday. Shelton Quarles has been practicing in his place in case Brooks can't go this week.
Giants @ Cardinals
Cardinals: The Giants have a tremendous TOP advantage over the Cardinals - eight minutes. So Fredrickson and McKinnon are both must-starts and could easily hit double digit tackle totals. The DB squad have posted a lot of tackles, with Kwamie Lassiter being the most consistent. He should be around 6-9 and 1-2 PDs. Adrian Wilson is healed and posted a nice 6-2-0 outing week 3. He should be in that area this week as well.
Giants: The Cardinals haven't given up many sacks on the season. But until last week they hadn't faced much pressure. The Chargers front four got three of the five sacks yielded by the Cards this year. Michael Strahan should have a good day (say 2-1-2). All the LBs should be in for an average outing, so expect about 4-6 tackles. The DBs should be busy, with Shaun Williams and Omar Stoutmire at 4-7 and 1-3 PDs. Will Allen and Williams could both get interceptions.
Patriots @ Chargers
Patriots: Neither team is giving up a lot of sacks, so don't expect many from either DL. However, RB Tomlinson should see his normal workload. With Bruschi likely out, Johnson should get 8-10 tackles again this week. For that reason, expect similar numbers from DB Lawyer Milloy. Drew Brees' relative inexperience should cause an interceptions or two, so Tebucky Jones (5 tackles, 2 PDs) and Ty Law (3 tackles, 4 PDs) are the best bets to get them.
Chargers: Marcellus Wiley is a stud, but given how well the Patriot OL is playing don't expect much from him this week. Seau and Edwards have nearly identical stats on the year; predicting which player will break out is as maddening as speaking to a teenage child. They should both be in the 6-9 range. Rodney Harrison is questionable, and now so is Beckett. Vernon Fox is Harrison's backup and Keith Lyle is Beckett's. ***UPDATE - Seau has been held out of practice but that has been as a precaution. He's still listed as Probable and expected to play. Harrison's fate is unknown and depends on Friday's practice. He has described himself as 70-75%.
Titans @ Raiders
Titans: With Randall Godfrey down, Keith Bulluck has been performing well. 7-9 tackles seems right for him. The Titans are only giving up a couple of sacks per game, but Kevin Carter is their best option. 3-5 and a sack should be possible. If you need a long shot at DL for this week try John Thornton out since he might get another sack and 2-3 tackles. Lance Schulters has been getting 6-9 tackles and 1-2 PDs, and he should be in that area this week as well.
Raiders: With George hobbled again, don't expect a lot from the Raider LBs. The Raiders are going to have a tough time getting sacks against the Titans. Rod Coleman may get one sack, and 3-5 tackles. The Raider LBs aren't putting up stellar numbers, but that is to be expected since they are controlling the clock so well. Napoleon Harris should be at 4-6 tackles, and Eric Barton 3-5 and maybe a sack. Rookie Philip Buchanon gets the start in place of the injured Charles Woodson, and should get picked on. 3-5 tackles, 2-4 PDs are likely and an interception is possible. Derrick Gibson is good for about that as well.
Vikings @ Seahawks
Vikings: Last week, Johnstone and Mixon had great games (6-1-2 and 4-1-1). They should get about half that this week. Greg Biekert finally had a nice game last week, but he and the rest of the Viking LBs have little to offer as starters for you. Ronnie Bradford and Corey Chavous have been outperforming them, and should again get 6-7 tackles and 1-3 PDs each.
Seahawks: Chad Eaton is the best play on the Seahawks DL, and should get 4-6 tackles and a sack. Antonio Cochrane has been solid but only startable in large leagues. The story on the defense has been the play of new MLB Isaiah Kacyvenski. Stepping in for Levon Kirkland, Kacyvenski has been posting 7-10 tackles per week. He should hit that this week too. Both Marcus Bell and Chad Brown could have been starting for you, and should get 6-9 tackles this week. Both could notch sacks as well. Marcus Robertson has been the best fantasy player among the DBs, but that's not saying much since he's been a borderline #2 or #3 DB start at best.
Broncos @ Ravens
Broncos: The Broncos should hand it to the Ravens, so their IDPs will be supporting cast for you this week. I figure the LBs will get 4-6 tackles. Deltha O'Neal is the best play, and should get 4-6 and at least one pick, possibly even two, since I expect the Ravens to be throwing a lot.
Ravens: The Broncos are going to run all day at the Ravens, and LBs Lewis and Hartwell remain must starts. Denver is giving up over three sacks per game and they are the best bets to get them. Boulware or Adalius Thomas could get one too. Anthony Mitchell has been the most consistent scoring DB, and Ed Reed finally had a big game last week. With the Broncos running attack, I see that continuing so figure they will get 6-8 tackles and 1-3 PDs.
Tom Nadratowski
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