Blitz Packages - Week 5
October 4th, 2002

Bye teams: Lions, Seahawks, Texans, Vikings

Cardinals @ Panthers

Cardinals: The Cards DL faces a good OL, so don't expect a lot of sacks from them. The Panthers running game winds its way through the Cardinals this week. Since it does make sure that McKinnon and Fredrickson are in for you. Both will be in the 8 tackle range, and McKinnon could hit 10. Last week GB MLB Nickerson hit 2-6-0, 2 PDs. Adrian Wilson and Kwamie Lassiter should be around 5-7 with 1-2 PDs. One of them should get a pick courtesy of Rodney Peete. Panthers: Rucker is a must start as well, and Kris Jenkins and Peppers are taking turns sacking. My bet for the play here is Jenkins - he's been more consistent. Give Rucker 4-5 tackles and at least one sack. Even though Arizona's running game is down to its third option, Morgan is a stud and remains a must start. Just realize he could disappoint. Mark Fields has been consustent as the #2 LB scorer and should get 4-6 tackles. Reggie Howard is tearing it up and remains a lock in your lineup. He or Deon Grant should get one interception this week. All of the Panther DBs should get 3-5 tackles due to what I expect will be a flat Arizona running game.

Raiders @ Bills

Raiders: The Bills are averaging just over three sacks allowed per game. Even though the DL pressure has not been as good as it could be I think that Parella and Coleman remain the best plays here. Give each 4-5 tackles and a sack. The Raiders are the #1 team in TOP, while the Bills are in the middle of the pack. So the Raider LBs are at best #2 or #3 starters for you. But that translates into more tackles for the DBs. Rod Woodson remains a solid starter, and Derrick Gibson is a good supporting DB. Give Woody about 6 tackles and 2-3 PDs, and Gibson 3-5 and 1-2 PDs. Bills: The clock favors the Rayduhs, and that's good news for London Fletcher and Eddie Robinson. Give Fletcher 8-10 and Robinson 6-8. Fletcher should have a sack too. Speaking of sacks, give Chidi Ahanotu and Aaron Schobel one, as well as 4-5 tcakles. Gannon isn't throwing many picks, so the Bill DBs will be lucky to get one. But they have been getting the tackles. Prioleau is good for 6+, Winfield 4-5 and Wire 4-6.

Redskins @ Titans

Redskins: The Titans do a good job of pass protection (allowing a bit more than one sack per game), and Washington can't mount much of a rush (about one per game), so don't bother with any of the Redskin DL. Where have you gone, Lavar Arrington? Blame Trotter and Armstead. Both players are better than the group the team had last year, so Arrington doesn't have to do much. Even so, Arrington would still be leading the LBs in tackles if not for Armsteads mammoth outing. Give the LBs 7-9 tackles and Arrington a sack. The only sure start among the Redskin DBs has been Champ Bailey. He's been the most consistent producer. That said, he's not been consistent enough to even start for most teams except in leagues that start a LOT of DBs. Titans: Kevin Carter has been an ok starter, and there is nothing special about this matchup to recommend him over anyone else. He's a solid #2 DL start this week. Keith Bulluck has been getting the tackles here lately, but with Godfrey back and healthy they'll split them more now. This week Titan LB tackle production should be down due to the overall weakness of the Redskins offense, especially the running game. Both should be good for 4-6. DB Schulters will be busy against the run and pass, so he should get 6-8 and 1-3 PDs.

Bucs @ Falcons

Bucs: This game should be close, and if so that should be good tackles all around. The last close game the Bucs were in (Wk 1 against the Saints) they had nice totals. Give Sapp 5 and a sack, McFarland 5-7. Derrick Brooks is a stud, and you always start them. He should get 10. Al Singleton will be at 8. The crafty Buc DBs may give Vick trouble by baiting him into picks. Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are the prime suspects to net them. Barber should be at 5 tackles, 2 PDs and a pick. Kelly at 8 tackles, 2 PDs and a pick. Falcons: The team is not generating much pass rush, and the Bucs aren't giving up many, so start your Falcon DL with caution, including Patrick Kerney. Brooking is a stud, but alongside him who to start is murkier.There is no clear trend on who will be the other consistently productive LB for Atlanta, so start them only if you have no other option. Ashley Ambrose should get 2-3 tackles and a PD, and Juran Bolden 2 tackles and 2-3 PDs.

Bengals @ Colts

Bengals: The team is giving up 140 RYPG and 190 PYPG. The TOP also favors the Colts by three minutes. Great news if you own Edge. Great news too if you own Brian Simmons. He should have about 10 tackles and 1-2 PDs. Spikes may still be hampered by that pec injury, but should still get 6-8 and a sack. And given the amount of running I expect Adrian Ross may be a good one week play in big leagues, since he should get 7-8 tackles. Speaking of sacks, the Colts OL is doing its usual good job of protecting Manning and is only giving up one sack per game. Start Justin Smith as a #2 DL. Artrell Hawkins has been the most consistent Bengal DB. He'll get 5-7 tackles and a PD. Jeff Burris will be fired up this week against his former team so give him 4-6 tackles and a PD. Colts: This weeks' winner in the Bengal starting QB derby is Kitna, and he'll face constant pressure all day. So start Bratzke figuring 3-5 tackles and at least one sack. Mike Peterson is solid at LB, but the tackles should be hard to come by this week, so only figure 6-8. The other LBs will be around 4-6. Kitna should toss two picks. Give one to Walt Harris and one to Idrees Bashir. Bashir should have 3-5 tackles and 1-2 PDs, with Harris at 2-3 tackles and 2 PDs.

Patriots @ Dolphins

Patriots: With a running game like the Dolphins have, who needs to pass? They are surrendering only one sack per week. Willie McGinest has been really productive, but this week he should struggle. Two weeks in a row they have been gashed by the running games of Priest Holmes and Ladanian Tomlinson. Oh look, here comes the power running of Ricky Williams. LB Tedy Bruschi should have 8-10 tackles, and Phifer 6-8. With the amount of running expected, Victor Green and Ty Law should have 6+ tackles, and Lawyer Milloy will be at 4-6. Dolphins: Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas are studs. Taylor should have 3-5 tackles and one sack. Thomas will be at 5-9 tackles. Derrick Rogers could be a nice play if you want to take a long shot since he will be either a boom or bust this week. Brady isn't throwing many picks, so don't expect a lot out of the Dolphin DBs, especially since they are banged up. Brock Marion should be the most productive, and he'll be around 4 tackles and 1-2 PDs.

Giants @ Cowboys

Giants: The Giants secondary is vulnerable to the pass, but the Cowboys should have trouble exploiting that this week. Dallas is giving up a lot of sacks, and Carter is throwing one pick per game on average. So start Strahan, figuring 3-5 tackles and 2 sacks. Watching Emmitt plod towards Sweetness' record has been painful, and you just wonder how long after he breaks it that Smith will get the hook in favor of Hambrick The production of LBs facing the Cowboys has been drab as well. Give Barrow 5-7 tackles and Dhani Jones 3-5. Shaun Williams has been the only Giant DB worth starting so far, so figure he'll be at 4-6 tackles and 1-2 PDs. Cowboys: The defense is still solid but is being left on the field for too long, which is why they are allowing as many YPG as they have been. Greg Ellis has been getting about 4 tackles and 1.3 sacks per game. He should get that this week too at least. Give La'Roi Glover 2-3 tackles and a sack as well. It doesn't get much better this week - the TOP favors the Giants by about four minutes. So expect a lot of Tiki Barber, and that will be great news for Dexter Coakley. He's been a stud in place of Dat Nguyen (should return in 1-2 weeks). Coakley will be at 9-12 tackles, and Kevin Hardy at 6-9. Coakley could also get a pick. Rookie Roy Williams and Darren Woodson have been the best plays at DB for Dallas. Start them and expect 6-8 tackles and 1-2 PDs for them both.

Steelers @ Saints

Steelers: No matter who was going to get the nod, this was not going to be the best week to try and out the wheels on the bus. The Saints don't give up much on the ground. They have given up a lot in the air, but Maddox should have trouble taking advantage of it since I expect the Saints to pressure and confuse him with their patented zone blitz packages. The Steelers' front three actually got some sacks last week but that's unusual. Your best bet for sacks is from Porter. He's a stud and should get 8-10 tackles, a sack and 1-2 PDs. James Farrior will be at 6-8 tackles. Ditto for DB Chad Scott. Lee Flowers and Brent Alexander will be in the 4-6, 1-2 PD range. Saints: I expect Maddox to struggle, and that means sack opportunitites for Charles Grant (subbing for the injured Whitehead) and Darren Howard. Give each 2-4 tackles and 1 sack. Grady Jackson has been the most consistent tackler on the DL and will be at his usual 4-6 tackle range. Even though the Steeler running game has been anemic they have little choice but to run Bettis since his backups are both dinged. Maybe they'll put Slash and Randle-El back there. Pittsburgh's commitment to the run means that Saint LB Clemons will be sniffing around the 10 tackle mark this week. LB Hodge should get 4-5 tackles. SS Sammy Knight should be busy and tally 6-8 tackles and 1-2 PDs. I'm expecting 1-2 interceptions from Maddox this week, so let's give one to Bellamy off a tip and one to Hawthorne. Bellamy will be at 3-4 tackles and Hawthorne at 3-5 tackles and 1-3 PDs.

Chargers @ Broncos

Chargers: The Broncos haven't been giving up much on the ground but their secondary has been very accomodating - a bit over 220 YPG. They have also been allowing 3.5 sacks per game. Sucks to be them because the Chargers have been getting four per game. They are going to knock the crap out of QB Griese. So start Marcellus Wiley and look for him to hit 4-6 tackles and 1-2 sacks. Raylee Johnson is a nice supporting play and should be around 3-4 tackles and a sack. He could also get a pick off a batted ball. With Denver's commiment to the run both LBs Seau and Edwards are nice plays. Edwards will be at 7-9, Seau at 6-8 and both 1-3 PDs. Rodney Harrison is still listed as questionable, like last week, but he played and got a solid 6-2-0. He should do that again too. Ryan McNeil has been playing well and he should get 4 tackles, 2 PDs and a pick. Broncos: The Chargers aren't giving up many sacks so don't expect much out of their DL. 2-3 tackles for Pryce is about right, but he'll be lucky to get a sack. You have to love it when the Charger running game comes to town. Give LB Mobley 7-9 tackles and LB Gold 5-8. Deltha O'Neal would have had a good game had he not gotten himself ejected. Slate him for 5-7 tackles and 1-2 PDs. The other DBs make good plays if you're looking for one week fixes. DBs facing the Chargers typically do well. So Kennedy and Reese should be around 6-8 tackles.

Chiefs @ Jets
Chiefs: This team is the best of both worlds - a good fantasy offense and good fantasy IDPs. Unfortunately they aren't getting many sacks per game - 1.2. That should reverse this week against the porous Jets OL. Eric Hicks and Duane Clemons have been racking up decent takle totals. But they'll come down this week against the weak Jets offense. Give them only 3-5 tackles but each a sack. The lack of production will hurt the other Chief LBs. LB Maslowski should get 7-9 tackles, and the other LBs 2-4. All of the starting Chief DBs except Bartee are on the injury report this week, but all except Warfield are no worse than probable. Wesley will tally 6-8, 2-3 PDs and Bartee should hit 5-7 and a couple of PDs. Jets: The team is so bad on offense that it's making fantasy starters out of their DL due to tackles. Jason Ferguson and John Abraham will get at least 5 tackles. Don't look for many sacks, the Chiefs aren't giving up many. Both LB Sam Cowart and Marvin Jones will get 8-10 tackles. DB Damien Robinson could hit that as well plus a PD. Donnie Abraham should get 6-8 tackles and 1 PD.

Rams @ 49ers

Rams: It's scary to think that the Rams could conceivably go 0-6 after being in the Super Bowl last year. The 49ers catch a break this week with Warner out. DL Grant Wistrom will find the going tough for sacks but should get 6-8 tackles. LB Don Davis is filling in for the injured Polley, and will get 6-8 tackles and a PD. Jamie Duncan will be right behind him with about 4-6. Adam Archuleta and Dre' Bly are good starts for you as well. Give Archuleta 7-9 and Bly 6-8, both with 2 PDs. 49ers: They can't coast against the Rams, but they should win this. I expect Martz to be forced to run more to get QB Martin in a groove, so that's good news in the tackle department. The Rams allow 2.5 sacks per game, but that will probably be less this week since the game plan should be more conservative. Even with an expected conservative game plan give Andre Carter 4 tackles and a sack. Chike Okeafor is a good long shot play since the Rams may game plan Carter out and not concentrate on him. Jeff Ulbrich (in for Winborn) and Derek Smith should get 6-9 tackles. DBs Tony Parrish and Zach Bronson should be the best plays, with Parrish at 7 tackles and Bronson at 5.

Eagles @ Jaguars

Eagles: The Jags haven't allowed many sacks all season, but they haven't faced a team with the quality DL like the Eagles has. I think they give up three sacks this week. Figure Hugh Douglas to remain his stud-like self and to get 2-2-2. The Jaguars will try and run a bunch, so Barber remains your best start with 8 tackles, 1 PD and a sack. Kirkland keeps being platooned, so give him 5 tackles and a PD. Brian Dawkins remains the best play at DB and probably one of the top DBs in any fantasy league. His numbers are nice because they aren't inflated with TDs. Give him 3-3-0 and 2 PDs. Bobby Taylor is the next most consistent scorer, and should get 2-2-0 and 1 PD. Jaguars: The Eagles have been allowing 3.5 sacks per game. Give DL Kevin Carter 3-1-2. Carlos Hall should also be a good one week play at 2-1-1 as a #2 DL. Jag LBs Westmoreland and Clark should hit 4-3-0. Slate DBs Darius at 5-2-0 and 2 PDs and McCree at 3-1-0 and 2 PDs.

Ravens @ Browns (SNF)

Ravens: Again this week the TOP favors the Browns (about three minutes). I see them struggling early but winning. Their defense has been a little too soft. The Ravens aren't much better, allowing 105 RYPG and 210 PYPG. The Browns haven't been allowing many sacks and the Ravens haven't been getting much pressure, so don't expect anything out of the Baltimore DL. But with the "comittee" of White and Green, give Ray Lewis 7-3-1 and Hartwell 6-9 tackles. Will Demps is back, so figure him for 5-7 tackles and Ed Reed 6-8. Browns: The Ravens allowed the DL of the Panthers and the Bucs to get three sacks. I think that the Browns can bring that kind of pressure, so figure Lang at 3-1-1, Brown for 2-1-1 and Warren 2-2-1. Earl Holmes has scored well three weeks in a row now so he must have just been shaking off the rust. Give him 8-10 tackles. The other Brown LBs have been taking turns being productive. Lately it's been Rudd, so it's about time for Hambrick to have another good game like he did a couple of weeks ago. Give him 4-2-0. Robert Griffith has been the most productive Brown DB, and that should continue here with him getting 3-3-0 and 2 PDs.

Packers @ Bears (MNF)

Packers: The Pack have 10 sacks on the year but four of those came last week. The Bears do a good job of protecting the QB, so don't expect much from the DL. The Bears will be looking to run a lot and play field control to protect their ravaged defense. Expect the game to look a lot like the GB/CAR match last week. Give LB Nickerson 8-10, and Wayne 6. DBs Sharper and McKenzie will be your best plays. Give Sharper 4-3-0 and McKenzie 2-2-0 2 PDs. Bears: The Bears pass rush has been hurting all year and it won't get better this week. Green Bay also does a good job of protecting the QB. So not many sacks are to be had. LBs Urlacher and Colvin remains the best sack threats, but I give the edge now to Colvin since Holdman is out for the year and I expect Urlacher to hang back more to cover for his loss. Caldwell starts for Holdman now but he's dinged as well. Give Urlacher 10-4-0 and Colvin 4-2-2. The DBs will be really busy so give SS Brown 6-2-0 and 1 PD. He's been the most consistent scorer among the DBs since Azumah and Austin seem to vulture from each other. Give them both 3-2-0.

Always start your studs!

Tom Nadratowski
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