Blitz Packages - Week 6
October 11th, 2002

Bye teams: Bears, Cardinals, Eagles, Jets

Lions @ Vikings

Lions: With the Vikings possessing a TOP advantage of nearly five minutes, you'd think that would mean that the Lions would get killed. But with the poor play of the Vikings defense, Detroit has a chance to win this one. The Vikings and Lions are both [a] not generating enough of a pass rush, and [b] allowing a lot of sacks. In addition, Culpepper has turned the ball over a total of 12 times thus far. That averages out to three per game. At some point that will stop but figure Culpepper for 1 INT and 1 fumble per game until it does. DL Porcher (2-1-1), LB Claiborne (5-2-0) and DB Lyght (3-2-0 3-5 PDs). DB Cash and DL Edwards are nice long shot plays. Interestingly, two of the last three opponents the Vikings have played, the WLB has done well too (wk 2; BUF MLB Fletcher 5-3-0, WLB Robinson 6-2-0; wk 4 SEA WLB Bell 13-1-0 1 PD). A Lion LB could get 14, but I'd say that 8-9 is more likely. So give WLB Green 6-3-0.

Vikings: The Vikings come into this game with a commanding TOP lead but they are a team in disarray. Lion QB Harrington could take advantage of that and burn their secondary. Still, the Lions are giving up more sacks than Minnesota so he'll be pressured and scrambling. DL Johnstone should be in the area of 3-2-1, and Kenny Mixon should be around 4-2-0. The MLB facing the Lions has done well in the past (wk 4 NO MLB Clemons 5-4-0; wk 2 CAR MLB Morgan 5-4-0 1 PD). MLB Biekert should be a good spot play here at 4-2-0. Harrington is still a rookie, and under the expected rush pressure he should throw a pick. Corey Chavous and Ronnie Bradford are the most likely to get it. Figure Chavous to be around 3-2 2 PD, and Bradford at 4-2 3 PD.

Ravens @ Colts

Ravens: Neither the Ravens or the Colts are generating many sacks or allowing many these days. The one team that did manage to sack the Colts was the Texans, who also employ a 3-4. So figure LB Boulware (4-2-1) and LB Hartwell (3-2-1) to get them. LB Lewis might get one, but his status is up in the air due to his injury. DBs Baxter (4-3-0 3 PDs 1 INT), McAlister (3-1-0 2 PDs) should be the best plays, and Reed is nice as a long shot - for two weeks now he has produced well.

Colts: The Colts were pounded by Corey Dillon. So RB Lewis should have a good day as well. CIN MLB Simmons came up small against all that running (3-2-0 1 PD) but WLB Spikes did not (8-0-0). The Bronco LBs did ok against the Raven running game in week 4. So figure WLB Peterson for 5-3-0, and MLB Morris for 3-2-0. DB Bashir is the most consistent scorer and should be at 5-3-0.

Panthers @ Cowboys

Panthers: The Cowboys OL has done a good job lately in limiting sacks, but the Panthers can bring it so look for three sacks. DL Peppers should be in the area of 4-1-1 and could get two sacks.With Emmitt still chasing Sweetness, he's bound to get his touches. That adds up to tackles for LBs Morgan (9-2-0) and Fields (4-2-0). QB Carter is turning the ball over an average of once per game, and with his hurting OL and a decent Panther pass rush, I figure it will be a pick this week. Let's give it to rookie Dante Wesley, since he will probably start for the injured Howard and will be picked on (1-1-0 3 PDs 1 INT). FS Deon Grant should be the best scorer with Howard out, and get around 5 tackles and 2 PDs. He could also get that Carter interception.

Cowboys: The Panthers' pass protection has been poor against teams with a good pass rush, and Dallas has one. So figure Ellis (3-5 tackles) for two sacks and Glover (2-4 tackles) for one. After Coakley, LB Hardy (6-8 tackles) is a decent play since RB Smith will likely get 20+ touches again. With DB Woodson questionable, DB Dixon would likely start but I think that rookie DB Williams will be the beneficiary (5-1-0).

Saints @ Redskins

Saints: The Saints haven't been generating much pass rush, a weird development given the talent they have on the DL. Rookie Grant has been good so figure he'll stay that way until he cools off (3-2-1). DL Hand could be good too (2-2-1). The Redskin running game has been generating good tackles the last two games, so LB Clemons (6-3-0) and LB Hodge (4-2-0) are the most consistent scorers. With rookie QB Ramsey facing solid pressure, he'll likely throw at least one pick, which should go to DB Knight (6-2-0 2 PD 1 INT). DB Bellamy has been off since week one but if you have him and want to risk him this is as good a week as any to do it.

Redskins: Washington's front four isn't generating much pass rush these days, so don't expect a lot out of them. None of them are worth starting. The LBs have been scoring well, and with Deuce coming to town they'll be busy. Armstead should be good (8-2-0) and Arrington ok (5-7). Trotter should be a good surprise play, so start him (8-2-1). All of the Redskin DBs are barely scoring and are so inconsistent that you shouldn't start them except in big leagues.

Bills @ Texans

Bills: Even though HOU OL Schau should be back this week, their OL will need time before it quits giving up bunches of sacks. So Aaron Schobel should be a good play (4-0-2) as well as Chidi Ahanotu (3-0-1). Houston really feeds their backs the rock (22 times week 4, 25 week 3, let alone the receptions they got) and that's why LBs Fletcher and Robinson are good starts (Fletcher 8 tackles, Robinson 6). Ditto for DB Wire (6-1-0) and DB Prioleau (4-2-0).

Texans: Buffalo isn't doing much better than Houston is stopping sackers. They averaging 3.6 allowed per week. Payne and Walker should both get sacks (Payne and Walker both 4 tackles and a sack). LB Sharper should get one too (6-1-1). LB Foreman should get 5 tackles, and LB Posey 5 and maybe a sack. Since the Bills pass a lot DB Glenn should be good (4-1-0 2 PDs) and DB Coleman decent (4-0-0 1 PD).

Falcons @ Giants

Falcons: The Giants are only averaging a little over two sacks per game, so the Falcon DL doesn't have much to recommend it. Still, Patrick Kerney is talented and should be started on the chance he sets the world on fire. Expect something like 2-2-1 and hope for more. Not much to say about Brooking (9-3-0) -  he is a stud. After him, the LBs production is erratic. LB Stewart is the best bet but don't look for much (4-1-0). DB Ambrose had a bad week 5, but that was due to the conservative TB offense than anything. He should bounce back to normal and have three tackles and three PDs.

Giants: The Falcons are giving up about three sacks a week, so figure that Strahan should get one, and possibly two (4-1-1). Keith Hamilton may produce a bit (3-2-0). The way the Falcons run the ball is good news for Giant LBs. Barrow should get about 12 and Jones 9. Also expect DB Williams (6-2-1) to be have a good day, also due to the run game.

Packers @ Patriots

Patriots: The Patriots are putting good pressure on opposing QBs (getting just under three sacks per game) but the Packer OL is good at protecting their Hall of Fame-bound QB, so don't expect much out of the NE DL, with Hamilton producing the most and probably getting 2-1-1. Two out of the three weeks, the Packer run game has made the opposing MLB a good performer. With no clear stud in NE, LBs Phifer (5-3-0) and Bruschi (6-2-0) will be decent starts. That running game should be good news for Milloy owners, who should have a nice night (5-2-0 1PD).

Packers: Green Bay is in bad shape with so many injuries along the DL. Gbaja-Biamila should be a #3 DL against the solid Patriot OL. Figure three tackles and maybe a sack, and DL Hunt with four tackles. LBs facing the Patriots have gotten about nine tackles the past three weeks. There is no reason to assume that trend will change. Give LB Wayne 7-3-0 and LB Nickerson 4-2-0. The Packer secondary is badly banged up. With SS Edwards out, SS Bowen should hit 5-7 tackles and CB Williams the same with 2-4 PDs thrown in.

Browns @ Bucs

Browns: Tampa isn't allowing many sacks and the Browns haven't gotten many, so don't expect much from Courtney Brown (4-2-0). Kenard Lang should be about half that. James Pittman doesn't do much for the Brown LBs either. Figure Holmes at 5-2-0 and Rudd at 3-2-0. Daylon McCutcheon and Anthony Henry are the only healthy original starters, and they'll be decent plays with about five tackles and 1-2 PDs.

Bucs: The Browns haven't been surrendering many sacks, but against the Bucs they’ll have their hands full. Give Sapp at least one sack and four tackles. After LB Brooks (10-3-1), LB Shelton Quarles has been the most consistent scorer. He should go about 5-2-1 this week. Since Couch is starting, Ronde Barber (4-2-0 2PDs) should finally break out of his pick-less streak and get at least one pick and maybe two - Couch is averaging about two INTs per game. And if Barber doesn't get one, Brian Kelly (3-1-0 2 PDs) probably will.

Steelers @ Bengals

Steelers: The stars are right for the normally quiet Steeler DL to get a sack. Aaron Smith has been hot, and he should stay that way against a Bengal OL yielding three sacks per game. Given how the Bengals like to run he'll have nice tackle totals again this week - say 4-2-1. Other than him, the Steeler LBs will likely get the sacks, as usual. Porter is a given (8-3-1 1 PD). After him, Farrior is the next best play (7-9 tackles) and then Gildon (6-8). Chad Scott has been the most consistent player in the secondary. He should be around 5-1-0 1 PD. There isn't much after him to recommend.

Bengals: The Steelers aren't giving up many sack, but DL Justin Smith should get one this week as well as 5-7 tackles. The Steelers will be looking to run all day and keep Maddox from passing and possibly turning the ball over, so LB Spikes should be very solid with 8-10 tackles and possibly a sack. With Simmons out he could get more than that. In the secondary, Artrell Hawkins has been productive. But this week he might be down a bit since I expect the Steeler running game to be featured. He should be at 3-2-0, 1-2 PDs.

Raiders @ Rams

Raiders: The Raiders come into this game with a TOP advantage of about three minutes. Normally that's pretty good, but the Rams could give them trouble. Neither team is generating a pass rush. Oakland's secondary could really use Charles Woodson back this week. With not much of a pass rush (OAK avg. 2/game), the Rams could win. DeLawrence Grant has been playing well for the past two weeks, but he's a marginal start at an expected 2-1-1. LB Napoleon Harris could really surprise depending on the Rams' game plan. Figure him for 4-3-0, and Romo for 4-2-1, while they both could get more. The safeties opposing the Rams get a work out, and tend to post good stats. Figure Rod Woodson for 3-2-0 1 INT 1 PD and Derrick Gibson for 3-3-0.

Rams: If they keep running the ball well they could win. They need to, to minimize the chances that Martin will turn the ball over. DL Grant Wistrom is the Rams best pass rusher, so he should be around six tackles and one sack. LBs facing Garner have performed well the last two weeks (Wk 4; TEN LB Godfrey 3-1-1, Bulluck 9-1-0; wk 5 BUF LB Fletcher 7-3-0, Robinson 2-3-0). So LB Duncan should get 6-9 tackles, and Don Davis 5-8. SS Archuleta should benefit as well, and at 6-4-0, will be one of the best DB plays this week.

Jaguars @ Titans

Jaguars: These two teams are nearly even in the TOP battle. But a healthy Fred Taylor gives a big edge to the Jags. The Titans are giving up more sacks than the Jaguars, but that's not saying much since the Titans only yield about 2/game. DL Tony Brackens will get hopefully get healthy and start playing like his old self again, but only start him as a #2 at best. LB T.J. Slaughter returns from his suspension this week, and should get 5-2-0 at least. Wali Rainer has done nothing. Leave him alone IF you still have him and are holding out hope he may turn it around. The most productive Jaguar DB has been DB Darius. He should be right around 4-2-0.

Titans: The sack potential here isn't very good since Jacksonville's OL has been better than expected. Kevin Carter is your best bet to get any Titan sacks. He should get 3-0-1. LB Bulluck has been an animal, rocketing around the field, making stop after stop. LB Godfrey may cut into his tackles at any time, but until then keep starting him and ride then hot hand. Figure Bulluck at 6-2-0 and Godfrey at 4-3-0. DB Lance Schulters has been playing great and will be at 6-8 tackles. DB Rolle should be about half that.

Chiefs @ Chargers

Chiefs: The new Marty team meets the old one. The TOP here favors the Chargers by about two minutes, but that should really favor them more since the Chiefs haven't been playing good D lately. The Chiefs have only yielded five sacks on the season, but facing a Charger team that has gotten 18, Trent Green will be under a lot of pressure. However, the same can not be said for a Chief DL that is only getting 2/game. So DL Hicks and Clemons will be valuable again this week for their tackles more than for their sack potential. Give Hicks 3-1-1 and Clemons 2-0-0. Mike Maslowski has been solid most weeks, and should easily hit 10+ tackles against SD RB Tomlinson. LB Patton has been very quiet this year so far, and his owners should probably consider him a spot play only this week. He should get 6-9 tackles. Given the state of the KC secondary, QB Brees may have a good day since two of the four starters are banged up. And where was the usually consistent Bartee last week? Was he eating that donut he posted? His injury may be just bad enough to hurt you again, so start him cautiously. DB Belser usually shows up against run oriented teams, and should be around 7-10 tackles. The other DBs will be busy and get 5-8.

Chargers: The Bolts are hitting 3.6 sacks/game, but they took a big blow when DL Wiley hurt his groin. Chris Demaree is his backup. Raylee Johnson will contribute, but it may be the DTs that benefit as far as sacks since Johnson may draw double teams. Johnson has been the most consistent and should get 3-0-1. Junior Seau also got nothing while Zeke Moreno went off for 10-1-0. Seau should be back and against Holmes get 7-10. LB Edwards will also be decent and get 6-9. DB Harrison may still be feeling the effects of his injury, which could explain why he did 6-2-0 week 4 but only 2-2-0 last week. His INT and PD helped, but he's been erratic since his injury. Still, you have to figure he's going to go off one of these weeks and get back on track, so keep starting him, just make sure you pair him with someone else. Give him 6-8 tackles and hope for more. The other Charger DBs should getin the neighborhood of 5-7.

Dolphins @ Broncos (SNF)

Dolphins: The Broncos have given up 16 sacks on the year, just slightly over 3 per game. DL Jason Taylor is a given. After him there is practically no one. Adewale Ogunleye has not delivered anything close to the promise he displayed previously, so start him only if you have no other options. Ditto for LB Thomas. The two weeks that Portis got the bulk of the carries, the LBs did well (Wk 3; BUF LB Fletcher 6-1-1; wk 5 SD LB Edwards 7-0-0, LB Moreno 10-1-0). He should be very busy chasing Portis around Sunday night. DB Arturo Freeman should post 4-6. Brock Marion should get that too, and maybe a Griese interception.

Broncos: Trevor Pryce should be the main beneficiary of Ricky Williams' running attack, and shout get a sack too. Say 4-6 tackles and a sack. But that should be about it for the Denver sacks, since Miami is doing great preventing them. Since Miami also is primarily a running team, LB Mobley should get 8-10 tackles. With LB Ian Gold's speed, he could get a sack too since the DL will have a fight all night. 3-2-1 1 PD seems about right for him. Deltha O'Neal is dangerous to throw against. Coupled with his tackling ability, O'Neal should get 4-2-0 and 1 interception.

49ers @ Seahawks (MNF)

49ers: They aren't getting many sacks, but with Shaun Alexander they should get some tackles. The best option on the SF DL is Andre Carter. He should get 4-0-1. After that it's a crapshoot. With LB Winborn still out, LB Ulbrich and Smith will again be counted on to carry the load. Give Ulbrich 4-3-1 and Smith 6-3-0. Tony Parrish should continue to perform well and get 6-2-0 and 1 PD. Jason Webster should get 3-2-0.

Seahawks: The Seahawk DL has been pretty poor lately, and it probably won't get better against a solid 49er front. John Randle should be back, bumping rookie Rocky Bernard back to the bench. Don't expect much from Randle his first week back. LB Kacyvenski remains a must start. After him, Marcus Bell is a week-to-week play since Anthony Simmons is due back any day. But if Bell plays Monday he should get 6-1-0. DB Reggie Tongue has been playing well overall, but will come down a bit this week and get 4-6 tackles and 1-2 PDs. After him the next most consistent scorer has been Ken Lucas (4-1-0 1 PD).