As the calendar turns to July and thoughts turn toward rookie contracts, conditioning drills, and other training camp gossip, experienced fantasy footballers turn a jaundiced eye toward the whole spectacle. As fun is it is to see the pigskin flying around again, a little perspective is needed. After all, preseason games don't mean anything, right?

Wrong.

That's not to say that everyone should scour the Net for every trivial detail being posted. It is quite easy to overanalyze every dropped pass or every offhand comment by a coach, and if you're not careful, you may be so overwhelmed by the volume of information that you will lose sight of the bug picture. But the opposite reaction, ignoring everything and base your draft only on what you know for sure, is just as likely to lead to fantasy doom.

Fortunately, it is not so hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. I've listed below a few things to keep your eye on as preseason unfolds, with some examples. Just to be clear, I don't list examples who I expect to do well; I list examples about whom no one has a good idea what to expect. That's why you need to pay attention to them in preseason.

• First-time starters

  In 2000, a sophomore QB took over the reins of a high powered offense. Until training camp, no one thought the new guy would be able to match his predecessor's numbers.

  Instead, Daunte Culpepper exceeded them.

  For most unproven starters, it is easy to assume that they will not be good. After all, rookies never make an impact, and if so-and-so wasn't good enough to start last year, why should he be any good this year? But until you actually see him on the field, you'll never know for sure.

  The important thing is not to take too much stock in coachspeak. Of course the team will insist that they have their utmost confidence in their new star. Instead, keep tabs on how they do against a real defense, both in scrimmages and in games.

  Examples this year: Trung Canidate, Josh Reed, Jake Delhomme

• New offensive/defensive systems

  When a new coach joins the team and implements a new system, you can forget about looking at last year's stats. Some WRs do well in a West Coast offense, some don't. Some players are smart enough to handle a complicated defensive scheme, some aren't.

  Unless you're a total junkie (or have more than 24 hours in a day), don't waste your time trying to figure out if the system should work in theory. Watch how quickly, if at all, the players get used to it. If you see the QB throw lots of interceptions, he's probably not just rusty. And if you see an article about the coach adjusting or simplifying the new system, watch out. It could take half a season before the players really know what they're doing out there. But if things seem to be clicking, don't be afraid to send players up your draftboard.

  Examples this year: Denver defense, Cincinnati defense, Dallas offense.

  By the same token, pay close attention to starters who have joined a new team. The change of scenery may be just what the player needed (Rich Gannon, Joe Horn), or the worst move he ever made (Alvin Harper, Yancey Thigpen). Again, you won't know until you see them in action.

  Examples this year: Peerless Price, Kordell Stewart.

• Under-performing players

  Every year, there are players who, by all logic, should be playing better than they have been. Watch them, because chances are, some of them will wake up. Better to get an idea before draft day of which ones.

  Examples this year: Jake Plummer, Anthony Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Johnny Morton

Finally, here are two things not to keep your eye on:

• Post-Game Stats

  Every newspaper will print box scores after a preseason game. Don't even think of looking at them. Resist the urge. Seriously. Box scores are worse than useless; they are misleading. They make you think that the RB with 6 carries and 25 yards played worse than the RB with ten carries and 70 yards. But it doesn't tell you that the 70 yards were all in the fourth quarter against third-string defenses.

  If you insist at looking at the numbers, go to NFL.com and look at the first quarter, or maybe the first half. After that, forget it. Remember, if a starter is still in the game by the second quarter (in early preseason) or the third (in later preseason), it's probably because he needs the extra work.

• Hype

  Every now and then you'll hear about the unheard-of player who makes a game winning play in the fourth quarter, or the player who is out to prove to the coaches that he was drafted too late or that the other 29 teams who passed on him are missing out or whatever. Just forget it. Newspapers love those feel-good stories because they sell papers. But they have nothing to do with who will be out on the field on week 1.

One last piece of advice. As strange as it sounds, don't ignore the gossip specialists. In the secretive business of training camp, most news gatherers don't have a clue what's really going on behind the curtain. Some of the best gossipmongers have sources that the average reporter could only dream of, and their BS detectors are the best in the business. If you hear John Clayton telling what he heard at the camp he just visited, listen up. He probably learned more in four hours than most reporters do in four weeks.

Offseason maneuvers and training camp battles are what keep football junkies going during the offseason. But if you don't know what to watch for when crunch time hits, you'll have wasted your time.