How long should you keep a Running Back in your starting lineup after they have gotten off to a slow start?

And what about Running Backs who get off to a fast start?

How many of them ever disappear?

I believe that the first 4 weeks are the most important in a fantasy football season. In this article, I will closely examine the touchdown performances of Running Backs over the last 2 seasons and show what impact their first 4 weeks had on the rest of their season.

To begin with I started by looking at the Running Backs who began the season with a big bang (which I defined as scoring 4 or more touchdowns in their first 4 games of the season). There were 14 players who reached this criteria. Of these 14 players, 1 was a rookie, 1 was a short yardage/goal line back and 1 was a player who was a starter but would be replaced in short yardage/goal line situations.

• The Rookie was LaDainian Tomlinson (in 2001) who opened with a flurry scoring 6 times in those first 4 games but then faded scoring just 4 more times the rest of the season. He also surpassed 90 yards in each of those first 4 games but in the final 12 games he surpassed that mark just once.



• The Short Yardage back was Stacey Mack (in 2002). He scored 4 times in the first 4 games and still scored a respectable 5 after that.



• Likewise, Warrick Dunn, who was the player noted who did not get goal line carries, tallied a 4/5 split (4 TDs in the first 4 games and 5 the rest of the season).

That leaves 11 Players who were full time feature backs who started from game 1 and were not rookies. 8 of these 11 players went on to score 6 or more TDs in their final 12 games (7 of them actually scored 9 or more).

The 3 players who did not score at least 6 or more are as follows:

• Curtis Martin in 2001. He had a 6/4 split. But while he managed to only score 4 more times in the last 12 games his overall numbers were still very impressive (1,833 total yards and 10 touchdowns).



• Charlie Garner in 2002. We all remember the torrid pace the Raiders had in September last year. He finished with a 6/5 split. And like Martin his overall numbers were still great (1903 total yards and 11 touchdowns).



• Lamar Smith in 2002. Now he finished with a 6/1 split. However, he was suspended for the final 5 games of the year and his replacement notched 5 scores during that time. So a combined 6/6 split still looks good.

Next, I looked at players who scored 3 touchdowns in the first 4 games. I found a total of 13 such players. Here is their breakdown:

• 4 players went on to score 8 or more touchdowns in the final 12 games



• 5 players scored 5-7 touchdowns (still respectable numbers which hover around a score every other game)



• 2 players were in a RBBC situation and both of these players finished with a 3/3 split



• 1 player (E James) was injured in week 6 and lost for the season



• 1 player finished with a modest 3/4 split (Ricky Williams in 2001) but again his overall numbers were still very good (1756 total yards and 7 touchdowns).

So we can safely surmise that full time feature players who get off to fast starts are good bets throughout the whole year.

But what about the other end of the spectrum? What about those guys who make you panic throughout September as you wonder if you wasted a high pick on a lemon? I found that there was a total of 37 Running Backs who scored 1 or fewer touchdowns in their first 4 games. Eleven of these players went on to score 6 or more touchdowns in the final 12 games.

At first those numbers appear to be a low percentage crap shoot (11 out of 37 = 30%). I wanted to know who these guys were and try to find out if these players could be weeded out ahead of time and set apart from the guys who won't ever get going.

My investigation found that 6 of these guys were full time feature backs who we knew would continue to get a high number of touches (Bettis, J Lewis, A Smith, A Green, Dillon and C Martin all from the 2002 season).

Three of the 11 players were rookies who did not start for their teams at the beginning of the season (Portis in 2002, W Green in 2002 and A Thomas in 2001). However, anybody who was paying attention knew that these guys would eventually be taking over it was just a question of when. Once they did they became full time feature guys who would get their touches much like the group mentioned in the above paragraph.

That leaves 2 players, Stacey Mack and Mike Alstott both from the 2001 season. Mack took over for Fragile Fred in week 3. He instantly became a full time feature back for the Jaguars that season and scored 9 touchdowns in his last 12 games. Alstott, however, was in a RBBC situation and was also the goal line back. He demonstrated a 1/10 split and that season can only be viewed as an aberration as there is nothing to support a solid reason for why he would score 10 times in his last 12 games.

So of the 11 players who started scoring regularly after the first month 10 of them were in situations were they could be identified and legitimate candidates to reward their patient owners. But what about the other 26 running backs who started slowly. Could we have known to avoid them? Would any of them hold any value? Well here is their breakdown:

• 16 of those were players who were not full time feature backs so they could be easily discarded.

Of the remaining 10 players (who were full time feature backs):

• 3 managed to score 5 touchdowns in the last 12 games



• 2 managed to score 4 touchdowns in their last 12 games



• 1 scored only 3 touchdowns in his last 12 games



• 1 scored only 2 touchdowns in his last 12 games (this was E James who was coming off his ACL surgery)



• 3 were injured and missed at least 5 games each

So in summary, 10 of the 20 full time feature backs who scored 1 or less touchdowns in their first 4 games, still scored and average of 1 touchdown (or more) every other game over the last 3 months. Remember when we first looked at this group we were facing a 30% crapshoot. So by doing your homework we can improve those numbers to 50%. Throw in the fact that 3 more backs scored 5 touchdowns in the last 12 weeks (still serviceable numbers for a spot starter or last starter in deep leagues) and we have tipped the numbers in our favor (65%).

What this all tells us is that a player who gets off to a slow start can still have good value and reward a patient owner and/or a frugal "tradesmen". Maybe the best example is Ahman Green who has scored 0 and 2 touchdowns in his first 4 games in the last 2 seasons. However, he has closed both seasons by scoring 9 times in the last 12 weeks. This year he is rated lower than he has been in each of the last 3 years. So another slow start will drop his selling value to an all time low…a great time to scoop him up at a blue light special price from a panicking owner!

Finally, there are several lessons to be learned from this study:

1. Running Backs who start fast should continue to give us a good return all year



2. There is no substitute for doing your homework…even AFTER the draft



3. Rookies who WILL become the full time featured backs should prove to have good to great value regardless of WHEN they take over



4. The majority of full time feature backs who start slow, will still have serviceable value and are worth starting in spot duty or deep leagues.



5. Checking the number a month into the season will reward smart and/or patient owners



6. Good value at cheap prices can be had from panicked owners about a month into the season.



7. Running Backs are still like gold in fantasy football