Well, after breaking down the performances of Running Backs after the first month I thought we could all benefit by looking at the break down for Wide Receivers too. Again, I studied the touchdown performances of Wide Receivers over the last 2 years and how their numbers produced during the first 4 games impacted the remainder of their season.

First, I need to note a couple qualifiers for this study. I only used a team's #1 or #2 Wide Receiver unless their #3 Wide Receiver finished the season with 40 plus catches. Realistically, a fantasy GM should not use a roster spot on a #3 Wide Receiver except for the rare cases such as Jerry Porter last year. In a deep 16 team league, even if every team carries 4 Wide Receivers that is still just 64 Wide Receivers, the exact number of STARTING Wide Receivers in the NFL.

Secondly, I did not include a player's scores on special teams (i.e. punt returns). Finally, I primarily identified a teams #1 WR as the guy who was clearly known to be that teams #1 Wide Receiver. Some teams like the Lions last year (Hakim 37 catches and Schroeder 36 catches) were not given credit to have a #1 Wide Receiver. Now let's get to the good stuff.

The first group that I looked at was the players who opened with 4 plus touchdowns. Over the last 2 years there have 6 players who met this criteria (all 6 scoring exactly 4 touchdowns). As a group they averaged 9.2 touchdowns and 981 yards for the season. However a closer look reveals 2 separate groups. Three of these players were the "go to" Wide Receivers (or the teams #1/feature Wide Receiver). This group averaged 10.7 touchdowns and 1245 yards. All 3 of these players finished with over 1,000 yards. The other group averaged a much more modest 7.7 touchdowns and 716 yards. Also it should be noted that none of them reached 1,000 yards. Maybe more disturbing fact with this group is that the numbers they posted in the first 4 games represent 52% of their season ending touchdowns and 36% of the season ending yards. In other words, they did NOT offer much after their blazing start.

The next group I looked at were the players who scored 3 touchdowns in their first 4 games. There were 13 such players over the last 2 seasons. These players averaged 8.4 touchdowns and 1016 yards.

Now, 6 of these players were the feature Wide Receiver. 5 of the 6 players finished with more than 1,000 yards (Conway in 2002 was the exception however he finished with 852 yards despite missing 3 games). Overall, they averaged 10.8 touchdowns and 1311 yards.

Of the other 7 players in this class, only 2 cracked the 1,000 yard barrier (Rice in 2001 and Price in 2002). Clearly, neither of these guys were the typical #2 Wide Receiver. So instead of just breaking the Wide Receivers down by #1 and #2, I looked at players with 20 or more catches in the first 4 games as well. Now all 6 of the #1 Wide Receiver reached the 20 catch plateau. The only other players who hit this mark were Rice and Price. Now as a whole these 8 players averaged 10.4 touchdowns and 1282 yards.

The group who failed to catch 20 (all the remaining #2 Wide Receivers) averaged a meager 5.2 touchdowns and 591 yards. The numbers posted in the first 4 games ended up being 58% of the season ending touchdown total and 36% of the yardage total. So again, this group offered very little after the hot start.

Now let's analyze those who started slowly. First, I looked at the players who scored only 1 touchdown. There were a total of 55 Wide Receivers who opened the last 2 seasons with 1 td in their first 4 games. As a whole they averaged 4.4 touchdowns and 771 yards. Only 13 of them reached the 1,000 mark for the season (24%) and just 16 of them scored 5 or more touchdowns the rest of the way (29%). The big question then is there any way to get these numbers in our favor when considering who to keep or who to pursue in a trade? Yes! Again we need to look at the breakdown between a team's #1 and #2 Wide Receiver, as well as, the 20 catch group. Take a look at the chart below to view this breakdown:

Now let me draw your attention to a couple of key things we can take from this chart. First, look at the difference between the group of #2 Wide Receiver with less than 20 catches and the #2 Wide Receiver with 10-19 catches. I broke this down because I wanted to know if there would be any difference between a #2 wide receiver with 17 catches compared to a #2 Wide Receiver with 5 catches. We would really be splitting hairs to note any significant difference. In other words don't think that because a #2 Wide Receiver is close to that "20 PLUS" group that he should be noticeably better than those with only a couple of catches.

Secondly, look at the bottom group. Those WRs with less than 20 catches look like they might be the best value here. I would also like to point out that this group's first 4 games represent just 19% of their season ending touchdown totals and 20% of the yardage total. Those percentages were the lowest compared to all the other groups which ranged from 20-27% for tds and 24-30% for yardage). So clearly, these guys have a lot to offer over the last 12 games of the season.

Finally, I looked at the Wide Receivers who failed to score a touchdown in the first 4 games. I found that there were 38 players in this group. Overall they averaged 3.7 touchdowns and 791 yards. Only 11 of the 38 reached the 1,000 yard mark and 15 of the 38 went on to score 5 or more touchdowns after the first 4 games. Below is the detailed breakdown:

A few things jump out here as well. Again the best value appears to be coming from the group of players who are #1 Wide Receiver with less than 20 catches. Furthermore, like the previous chart their yardage total represented just 16% of their season total. Again this was the lowest such percentage in this breakdown with the others ranging between 22 and 29 %.

Also like the 1 touchdown class, the group of #2 wide receivers with less than 20 catches are basically all the same. So again don't get caught here thinking a 15 catch #2 Wide Receiver will be better than a 5 catch #2 Wide Receiver.

With both of these charts, the stat I look at the most is the last 2 columns. After 4 games, the most important thing to know is "what will these players do for you the REMAINDER of the season. The numbers don't lie. If you know what you are doing you can at least put the percentages in your favor and know who to play or trade.

In closing here is what we learned:

1. #2 wide receivers that start off with a big bang should be dealt IMMEDIATELY. Of course, keep in mind this was a very small sample but this information should still be considered.



2. #1 wide receivers still have significant value and some upside even though they get off to a slow start. Don't panic. At the same time, find the guy in your league with one of these guys and get a good player at a blue light special price!



3. #2 wide receiver have marginal value and limited upside and should be avoided at all costs unless their situation is unique (i.e. and offense that will generate multiple star Wide Receivers). However, before you go out and start making crazy predictions like the Bengals will have three 1,000 Wide Receivers, make sure you have a firm grasp on what the numbers should look like. More specifically, ask yourself how many teams each year actually have 2 Wide Receivers on their team that crack 1200 yards and 7-8 tds? Then I might look at how many teams over the last 15 years who did this were able to repeat that feat. That might be a good study for those who are high on Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward again this year.



4. A good rule of thumb is to wait until players have played 4 games before you start making trades.



5. Running backs are still the best way to stock your team