This column looks at the matchups of three “bubble” players each week – not guys you’ll automatically keep in the lineup week in and week out, but guys who are borderline starters depending on their matchups.

 

Week 10 Recap:  I told you to play Jamal Lewis, play Kerry Collins, and play Tai Streets.  What Happened: Lewis rushed for 135 yards and 2 TDs, surpassing my projection of 104/1.5.  Collins threw for 300 yards and 2 TDs, surpassing my projection of 277/2.  Streets caught passes for 41 yards and no TDs, failing to hit my projection of 85/0.5.  Bubble Watch Record: 2-1.  Season to date: 12-14-4.

 

Week 11 Bubble Players

 

RB James Mungro (or Edgerrin James) vs. the Cowboys

 

Going into week 10, the Eagles had not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season – until undrafted rookie James Mungro gained 101 yards against them in the first half.

 

So who is this kid?  A rookie out of Syracuse, Mungro showed very good run skills in college, but he lacked the size and speed the pro scouts covet.  (See Joel Buchsbaum’s scouting report on Mungro here.)  He joined the Detroit Lions’ training camp this summer as a rookie free agent, but was cut before the season started.  (With the Lions’ current lack of depth at RB, they have to be regretting that move.)  Mungro was later signed by the Colts to be a backup to Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams II.

 

With both James and Williams out, Mungro got his first start last week and made the most of it, rushing for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns against a very tough Philly D.  Before last week, the Colts hadn’t rushed for over 100 yards as a team since the second week of the season.  Mungro ran with impressive determination and intensity against the Eagles, fighting for extra yards in a way Edgerrin James arguably hasn’t been this year.

 

So if Edgerrin James isn’t ready to go this week (he’s listed as questionable on the Wednesday injury report), is Mungro worth a fantasy start?

 

I vote no.  Whoever starts at RB this week for the Colts will be facing a pretty stingy run defense that’s given up only 3.3 yards per rush over the last six weeks – the lowest in the NFL.  In addition, the Colts’ offensive line has generally done a very poor job of run-blocking this year.  The Colts are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over the last six weeks as a team, and that hasn’t been all Edgerrin James’s fault.  There just haven’t been very many holes this year for the Colts’ RBs to run through.

 

The status of Edgerrin James will be determined later in the week, but no matter which RB starts for the Colts, I wouldn’t look for a 100-yard day.

 

Projection: 22 carries for 70 yards, 0.7 TDs (30 yards receiving)

 

QB Daunte Culpepper vs. the Packers

 

Over their last 28 games, the Vikings have won fewer games than the Bengals.

 

There are lots of possible reasons for this: Robert Smith is gone; Cris Carter is gone; four Pro-Bowl caliber offensive lineman (Todd Steussie, Korey Stringer, Jeff Christy, Randall McDaniel) are gone; the defense has been pathetic; Randy Moss has been a distraction; and – last but not least – Daunte Culpepper has played pretty poorly.  He has 8 TDs and 14 INTs this season, and a QB rating of 71.7.

 

Culpepper’s role in the Vikings struggles was highlighted last week when Todd Bouman came off the bench and led the Vikings on an inspired comeback against the Giants, although it ultimately fell short.

 

Culpepper retains his starting job for now, but if he struggles again this week against the Packers, the Vikings won’t hesitate to replace him with Bouman again.

 

What has Culpepper’s problem been this year?  He’s still just as big, athletic, and strong-armed as he ever was.  But he seems to have lost a lot of his composure.  He makes bad decisions when pressured, and generally hasn’t been as accurate as he was in previous years.  It doesn’t help any that Randy Moss has been inconsistent this season as well.

 

It’s clear that the Vikings aren’t going to show a lot more patience with Culpepper: if he struggles, he’ll be replaced.  Maybe that’s the motivation he’ll need to turn his game up a notch.  Maybe the pressure on Culpepper will rally the rest of the team around him and they’ll all play well – maybe even win.

 

Or maybe it will make Culpepper even more hesitant in the pocket, even more afraid to make a mistake . . . which is, perversely, when mistakes tend to be made in bunches.

 

In any event, Culpepper won’t be helped by his matchup this week.  The Packers’ opponents over the last six weeks have often been forced to play catch-up, and as a consequence they have attempted 15% more passes against the Packers than they have averaged against their other opponents.  Those extra attempts, however, have not translated into any more yards, a fact that is reflected in the rather impressive 4.71 yards per attempt the Packers have surrendered during that period (second lowest in the NFL behind the Buccaneers).  This is not an easy defense to exploit.

 

There’s a good chance Culpepper will struggle again this week.  I would advise going with a safer option.

 

Projection: 22 of 38 for 223 yards, 1 TDs, 2 INTs (27 yards rushing).

 

WR: Jason McAddley vs. the Eagles

 

Admittedly, Jason McAddley is more of a “Who’s that?” player than a bubble player.  But if he’s available in your league, I urge you to consider picking him up.

 

McAddley is a rookie fifth round pick out of Alabama with excellent size, speed, and ability; the knock on him during the draft was that he never really blossomed into the kind of productive receiver he should have been in college.  (See Joel Buchsbaum’s scouting report here.)  However, he responded extremely well to the pro coaching he received during the week of Senior Bowl practices, catching the eye of Cardinals WR coach Jerry Sullivan (who remarked that McAddley was “a far better receiver on Day 5 [of the Senior Bowl workouts] than he was on Day 1"), and Sullivan persuaded GM Bob Ferguson to select McAddley in the draft.

 

Sullivan is widely respected as one of the finest WR coaches in the NFL.  He’s in his second year with the Cardinals, having previously coached in Detroit (Herman Moore, Johnnie Morton, Germane Crowell) and San Diego (Tony Martin).  Cardinals fans hope Jason McAddley will flourish under Sullivan’s coaching the way David Boston has (or, at least, had).  He’s got all the physical tools to do it.

 

With David Boston and MarTay Jenkins both out of the Cardinals’ lineup, McAddley will get a chance to try and repeat last week’s performance of five catches for 113 yards.  Frank Sanders isn’t an NFL WR1, and Freddie Jones hasn’t done much this year, so it’s quite possible McAddley could have a few more big games this season as the team’s most likely big-play threat.  He made two spectacular catches last week, one of them coming on the first play of the game (a flea-flicker), and there’s no reason to think he won’t make several more before the season’s over.

 

This week, McAddley and the Cards will face a tough Eagles defense.  But Jake Plummer generally seems to play well against the Eagles: he has led the Cardinals to five fourth-quarter comebacks against them over the course of his career.  This week, the Cardinals will try to open up the passing lanes by establishing the run with second-year RB Marcel Shipp – a strategy that worked for the Colts last week, as Manning and Harrison benefited from James Mungro’s early success on the ground.  Shipp gained 85 yards on 16 carries last week (compared to Thomas Jones’s 24 yards on 11 carries), so there’s actually some hope for the Cardinals’ offense.

 

McAddley is too young and too unpolished to rely on this week if you have any other solid options.  But he’s got the potential to have a pretty good second half of the season, so stashing him on your roster is advisable if you have the room.  And if you’re in a pinch, McAddley may even be an option this week – I like his chances of getting about seven fantasy points or better.

 

Projection: 82 receiving yards, 0.5 TDs.