This column looks at the matchups of three “bubble” players each week – not guys you’ll automatically keep in the lineup week in and week out, but guys who are borderline starters depending on their matchups.

Week 11 Recap:  I told you to sit James Mungro/Edgerrin James, sit Daunte Culpepper, and play Jason McAddley in a pinch.  What Happened: James rushed for 106 yards, and added 6 yards receiving.  I’m not sure how to score that one: his 11.2 fantasy points made him the #19 RB overall, worthy of a start; but he was shy of the 14.2 fantasy points I had projected for the Indy RB.  I guess the next time I project a running back to get 14.2 fantasy points, I should tell you to start him, not sit him.  I’ll take a loss on that one.  I was pretty close on my yardage projections for Culpepper, but he had two more TDs than I projected him for (one passing, one rushing), making him the #3 QB overall.  Another loss.  McAddley made a diving 12-yard TD reception in the first quarter before being knocked out of the game with a bruised biceps.  That gave him the 7 FF points I said I felt comfortable with, but put him short of the 11.2 points I projected him for.  Push.

Week 11 Record: 0-2-1.  Season to date: 12-16-5.

Week 12 Bubble Players

Instead of looking at one QB, one RB, and one WR this week, I’m going to look at the four QBs starting this week due to injuries (or, in Warner’s case, coming back from an injury).

QB Kurt Warner vs. the Redskins

The Rams are 0-3 this year with Kurt Warner at the helm, and 5-0 with Mark Bulger.  On the season, Warner has thrown for 912 yards, 1 TD, and 8 INTs; his QB rating is 66.4.  Bulger has thrown for 1,496 yards, 12 TDs, and 4 INTs, giving him a league-best QB rating of 106.  Officially, there is no QB controversy in St. Louis: Kurt Warner is the starting quarterback of the Rams.  Unofficially, there may be a QB controversy when Bulger’s sprained index finger heals . . . unless Warner returns to his old form, and fast.

Will he?

Before this season, Warner had established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  (Joel Buchsbaum had Brett Favre and Kurt Warner ranked 1A and 1B.)  Some people will credit Warner’s success (and Mark Bulger’s, and Trent Green’s when he was a Ram) to Mike Martz’s system, but the system is not wholly responsible.  In his three seasons as the Rams’ starter, Warner proved to be as accurate as any QB in the league.  He makes his reads as quickly as Dan Fouts or Dan Marino ever did, he delivers the ball on time, and he usually puts it where is receiver can catch it in stride and run with it afterwards.  Warner is also a tough player and a leader who has the respect of his teammates.  He’s completed over 65% of his passes every year (including this year), and has averaged over 4,200 yards a season.

So what’s to blame for Warner’s drop in production at the beginning of this season?  Most people were blaming his thumb, which he injured in the 2001 season opener.  However, I don’t completely buy that explanation.  For one thing, he played with the thumb injury through all of the 2001 season and managed to throw for over 4,800 yards.  If the injury didn’t hold him back in 2001, why would it be so much worse in 2002?  (He did, however, aggravate the injury in last year’s Super Bowl loss to the Patriots.)  For another thing, Warner has continually denied that his thumb has bothered him at all this season.  He didn’t deny it last year, so why shouldn’t we take him at his word?

Nonetheless, most observers felt that something was hindering Warner’s throwing motion at the beginning of the year.  Despite completing a career-high 69.8% of his passes, a lot of his balls seemed to flutter.  Len Pasquarelli noted after the Tampa Bay game that, even in the pre-game warm-ups, Warner’s passes just didn’t look right.

There may be something to that.  However, I think the bigger factors have been: (1) the Rams’ offensive line played poorly in the beginning of the year; (2) the Rams failed to get Marshall Faulk and the running game going early on (he averaged 10 rushes per game in Warner’s three outings, versus 24.5 rushes per game in Bulger’s first four starts before sitting out last week); (3) the Rams’ schedule was much tougher during Warner’s starts than Bulger’s; and (4) Warner just threw way too many interceptions.  On the third point, this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article points out: “In his first three starts of the season, Warner faced the No. 2-ranked defense in Denver; the No. 5-ranked defense in the New York Giants; and the NFL's No. 1-ranked defense in Tampa Bay. Even in start No. 4, against Dallas, the Cowboys rank No. 10 in total defense, but Warner left that game after throwing only two passes because of his broken finger. . . . Bulger, on the other hand, has faced these defenses: No. 15- ranked Oakland; No. 27 Seattle; No. 29 Arizona; No. 24 San Diego; and No. 25 Chicago.”

So how will Warner do going forward?  Considering the factors mentioned above, the answer isn’t obvious.  The rest Warner got over the last six weeks may have done his thumb some good . . . but if it didn’t heal over the whole offseason – or if it wasn’t a problem this year to begin with – then six weeks of rest may not help much.  Marshall Faulk was playing great just before his injury, and Lamar Gordon has filled in nicely.  The Rams’ offensive line is healthier now and is playing better.  The Rams; schedule will start to get more difficult again.  Finally, Warner has always thrown too many interceptions, and probably will continue to throw them because the Rams take a lot of chances – but I wouldn’t expect a 1:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio going forward.  So it looks like about half the signs point toward improvement for Warner and half don’t.

Looking at the bigger picture, though, I like Warner’s chances to be a very good fantasy QB for the rest of the season.  He was averaging 294 passing yards a game before he got hurt with a completion percentage of nearly 70%.  How much could his thumb have been bothering him?  The only thing that held his fantasy numbers back was the lack of touchdowns (and, in leagues that subtract points for interceptions, his lack of lack of interceptions).  With the Rams’ offense in general now playing better, the touchdowns should flow a bit more freely.

Warner could continue to struggle, but even if he doesn’t totally regain his 1999-2001 form, he ought to put up pretty good fantasy numbers in that Rams offense.  If you have Rich Gannon or Aaron Brooks or Drew Bledsoe on your roster in addition to Warner, then by all means, take a wait-and-see approach with Warner and make sure he’s playing well before you put him in your starting lineup.  But if you don’t have a top 10 QB, you may as well take a chance on Warner.  The potential benefits are worth the risk, as I think it’s quite likely Warner will be able to average about 250 yards per game for the rest of the season, and I very much doubt the era of multiple-TD games for him is over.

Projection: 22 of 36 for 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT.

QB Steve Beuerlein vs. the Colts

Brian Griese is expected to miss 1-3 weeks with a sprained knee.

Steve Beuerlein, in his 16^th season in the league, has been a backup for most of it, including stints with the Raiders, Cowboys, Cardinals, Jaguars, and Panthers.  The high point of his career was with the Panthers when he was the full-time starter in 1999 and 2000; during those seasons he racked up 8,166 passing yards and 54 TDs.

Beuerlein is a mechanically sound passer who is very accurate when given time to throw, and he’s a smart player who can read coverages, and will take care of the ball.  He can be a bit streaky, but when he finds his rhythm, he throws the ball as well as anybody.  His mobility is non-existent: he’s probably the only skill-position player on the Broncos who would lose to Mike Shanahan in a footrace.  However, he may be a better pure passer than Brian Griese.  Several observers felt that Beuerlein had actually outperformed Griese during training camp this year.  There was some question going into training camp about a lingering elbow injury, but Beuerlein put those concerns to rest by firing the deep outs crisply.

If you had been starting Griese and you’ve got Beuerlein on your roster, go ahead and start Beuerlein in his place.  There should be very little drop-off; and if Beuerlein plays well enough, there may actually be a QB controversy in Denver.  Brian Griese is not Kurt Warner: he will not automatically be the starter in Denver whenever he is healthy.

Replacing Griese last week, Beuerlein threw two touchdown passes on his only two pass attempts.  I’ll leave to the reader the exercise of extrapolating those stats out for an entire season.

This week, the Broncos face a Colts defense that’s been very stingy against the pass lately, giving up an average of 161 net passing yards a game over the last six weeks.  They won’t shut down the Broncos, though; Denver has too many offensive weapons, and Beuerlein has the experience to know how to use them.  Expect a good game from Beuerlein, and perhaps several good games, until he hands the reigns back to Griese – if he does.

Projection: 24 of 37 for 261 yards, 1.5 TDs, 0.3 INTs.

QB: Kordell Stewart vs. the Bengals

Tommy Maddox may return this season.  For now, though, Kordell Stewart gets a second chance after having been benched earlier in the season for ineffective play.  Maddox stepped in and performed extremely well, making Kordell expendable.  There’s little chance the Steelers will keep Kordell around next year . . . unless he takes advantage of this second chance and plays a lot better than he did earlier.

Stewart looked great last Sunday in relief of Maddox, coming off the bench and completing 13 of 17 passes for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns.

It’s a little hard to predict how Stewart will play in the coming weeks since he’s so inconsistent.  He can play very well or very poorly for entire seasons at a time.  He led the Steelers to the AFC Championship game last year, was team MVP, and went to the Pro Bowl.  He started off this year with three bad games and was benched.  His whole career has been a series of ups and downs.  However, he’s in a good situation right now as the acknowledged leader of the offense: he won’t have to look over his shoulder, and the crowd should be behind him.

Stewart has always been a superior athlete at the QB position with the ability to turn broken plays into nice gains.  He has good arm strength and great running ability.  Consistency has been his main problem.  When he loses confidence, his accuracy and decision-making suffer.

When the Steelers face the Bengals this week, however, Stewart has no reason not to be confident.  (Chad Johnson had not guaranteed a Bengals victory as of this writing.)  The Bengals’ defense has not slowed down many of its opponents this year, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to stop Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress.

I expect Kordell Stewart to play better this week than he had in the first three games of this year.  Go ahead and start him if you have no better options.

Projection: 22 of 34 for 229 yards, 2 TDs, 1.5 INTs (23 yards rushing).

QB: Koy Detmer vs. the Forty-Niners

Koy Detmer may not have McNabb’s arm strength, size, mobility, or overall athleticism, but . . . well, there is no but.  Detmer is just nowhere near the QB McNabb is.  (He’s probably better than his brother Ty, though, for what that’s worth.)  When Koy Detmer got substantial playing time for the Eagles in 1998, it wasn’t much of a drop-off from Bobby Hoying and Rodney Peete; but when he plays this year, it will be a substantial drop-off from Donovan McNabb.

In his sixth year in the league, Detmer has some experience, but he’s only attempted 17 passes in the last three years.  He’s an undersized QB (6-1, 195) with decent mobility in the pocket and nice touch on his passes, but his arm strength is well below average and he’ll try to force the ball into coverage.  He’s an extremely smart player who understands the offense very well, but he will still make poor decisions when pressured.

Detmer could probably be an effective quarterback if he had a good offensive line, an effective running game, and big-play receivers who could consistently get open.  But he can’t carry an offense by himself the way McNabb can.  The main thing Detmer will have going for him is that opposing defenses will probably stack the line of scrimmage in an effort to shut down Duce Staley, giving the Eagles’ receivers some room to work with downfield.

Of the four QBs featured in this week’s Bubble Watch, Detmer is the one you’d least want.  He may have some initial success until teams figure out how to exploit his weaknesses, but it’s very unlikely he’ll be a long-term solution for your fantasy team at QB.  If you’re a McNabb owner now looking for a way to replace your starting QB, you probably want to look elsewhere.

Projection: 17 of 30 for 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.