This column looks at the matchups of three �bubble� players each week � not

guys you�ll automatically keep in the lineup week in and week out, but guys

who are borderline starters depending on their matchups.

Week 14 Recap:� I told you to sit Matt Hasselbeck, to play Jon Kitna, and to

start Tom Brady.� What Happened: Hasselbeck threw for 223 yards, 2 TDs, and

3 INTs, a good day. Kitna threw for 295 yards and 2 TDs, and ran for another

TD. Brady threw for 183 yards and 2 TDs (a receiving TD was called back).

Week 11 Record: 1-2.� Season to date: 15-21-6.

Week 15 Bubble Players

Brad Johnson vs. the Lions

This look at Brad Johnson is about five weeks too late, but better now than

never.

Over the last five weeks, Johnson has thrown 15 TD passes and only one

interception.� He now has 22 TD passes on the year (to 6 INTs), already

giving him the Bucs' single-season record with three games to go.� Not bad

for a guy who was released by the Redskins two years ago because Jeff George

had so much more potential -- or for a guy who, during training camp of this

year, was playing not to lose his job to the more athletic Rob Johnson.

Johnson is a smart, experienced veteran -- a late-bloomer who is developing

into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.� He doesn't have a great

arm; he doesn't have great mobility; but he makes excellent, quick decisions

and has superior accuracy and touch on short and medium throws.

He has been successful because he's been able to pick up a very complicated

offense quickly and use every one of his (mostly unspectacular) offensive

weapons to his advantage.� Last week's game against the Falcons is a case in

point: while most QB-watchers had their eyes on Michael Vick, Johnson

completed passes to seven different receivers, amassing 276 yards and 4 TDs

as Johnson consistently found the open receiver -- usually Joe Jurevicious,

Keenan McCardell, or Michael Pittman, as Keyshawn Johnson attracted much of

the defense's attention.

Before the season started, Raiders' QB Rich Gannon predicted that it would

take Brad Johnson at least half a season to master Jon Gruden's offense.� It

looks like Johnson has it down pretty well at this point: he's the top-rated

quarterback in the NFC despite the absence of a consistent running game to

build off of.� Johnson, however, still doesn't think he's mastered it:

"After 11 years in the league, I'm still growing. You see what Rich Gannon

is doing now in Oakland, and that was after four years with Coach Gruden. I

don't think we'll hit our peak here for another two years."

Will Brad Johnson be able to maintain the level of play he's shown us over

the past five weeks -- or even improve on it?� I don't see any reason why

not.� He's in an offense that suits his strengths very well: I believe he

will keep minimizing his mistakes, making good decisions, finding the open

receiver, and getting the ball to his receivers accurately and on time.

This week Johnson faces a Detriot Lions defense that is ranked #29 against

the pass, giving up 251.2 yards per game.� They have given up 7.25 yards per

attempt (#28), 23 passing TDs (#29), and have allowed opposing QBs a rating

of 94.1 (#30).

A good matchup for a good QB.

Projection: 22 of 33 for 245 yards and 1.5 TDs.

T.J. Duckett vs. the Seahawks

Rookie RB T.J. Duckett has a very rare, Brian Urlacher-like combination of

size and speed.� While at Michigan State, he clocked in at 4.37 seconds in

the forty at 250 pounds.� He is a tough inside runner with a nice burst of

speed once he breaks through the line.� He has the power to get yards after

contact.� What he needs to improve on as he gains experience is staying

north-south and gaining the sure two or three yards in front of him instead

of looking to change direction and bounce plays outside, resuling in no

gain.� It's harder to turn the corner in the NFL than it was in college.�

Duckett does have the speed to get outside, but his bread and butter will be

between the tackles.

Duckett has had a limited fantasy impact this year as Warrick Dunn has

gotten the majority of the carries.� Dunn is currently nursing a high ankle

sprain and was held out of action last week, but will be ready to go this

week against the Seahawks.� But even with Dunn returning, the Falcons plan

to get Duckett plenty of carries in the remaining regular season games.

If you're ever going to start Duckett, this is the week to do it.� Dunn may

still not be 100%, and the Seahawks are far and away the worst defense in

the league against the run, giving up an average of 168.2 yards rushing per

game.� No team has allowed more yards per carry than the Seahawks (5.1), or

more rushing TDs (18) so far this year.� They have allowed nine RBs to rush

for over 100 yards in 13 games.� The Seahawks' best defensive player, Chad

Brown, is on injured reserve, as is DE Lamar King.� Former run-stuffing MLB

Levon Kirkland departed in the offseason via free-agency.� The linebacking

corps of Orlando Huff, Tim Terry, and Anthony Simmons aren't getting the job

done.

The Falcons as a team could very easily end up with 200+ rushing yards this

week.� The question is how they'll be divided.� However, even if Duckett

ends up with less than a third of those yards, he should be the first option

at the goal line, and should score at least one TD on the day.

A fantasy stud?� No.� But Duckett should put up respectable numbers this

week; if you don't have two studs ahead of him, he's worth considering.

Projection: 13 carries for 63 yards, 1.3 TDs.

Tim Brown vs. the Dolphins

If, before the season started, somebody told you that Rich Gannon would

throw for over 5,000 yards this year, you'd probably think Tim Brown would

be a lock for 1,000, right?� After all, he's broken the 1,000-yard mark in

each of the last nine seasons, so another would just be par for the course.

Well, despite Gannon's probable record-setting year, Tim Brown is on pace to

fall short of the 1,000-yard mark this year.� Even worse (for his

fantasy-owners), he only has 2 TDs on the season.� Has age finally caught up

with him?

It appears so.� He is, after all, 36 years old. This is his 15th season in

the league.� Sure, he's young compared to Jerry Rice -- but it's not fair to

compare any mere human to Jerry Rice.� Brown had lost a step even before

this season, but now it looks like he's lost another one.� Over the last six

games, Rice has had 10, 42, 71, 32, 90, and 23 yards receiving -- good for

fifth on the team behind Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Charlie Garner, and even

Doug Jolley.� Is Tim Brown finished?

Not so fast.� He's still a smart receiver with good hands and the ability to

run precise routes.� The chemistry that has developed between Brown and

Gannon has not completely vanished.� He is still playing in the most

proficient passing offense in the league.� It's possible Brown still has a

good week left in him; and this may be the week.

The notion sounds absurd at first.� The Raiders are facing a Miami Dolphin

defense this week that is one of the best in the league, both overall and

against the pass.� They are number #4 in the league in pass defense, giving

up only 191.2 yards per game.� Moreover, they are #3 in both completion

percentage allowed (55.8%) and QB rating allowed (72.8).

But if we look a little bit closer, we find some hope for Tim Brown this

week.� Putting those numbers aside for the moment, the Dolphins' run defense

has been a lot better than their pass defense recently.� In fact, as a

result of stopping opposing offenses on first and second downs, the

Dolphins' have been able to put thier opponents in many 3rd-and-long

situations -- which partially accounts for the low completion percentage and

QB rating allowed.� The Raiders, however, will pass early and often -- not

just on third and long.� The Raiders' offense is well-suited to attack the

Dolphins' defense because they don't rely on the run to set up the pass:

they pass to set up the pass, and run mostly as a change of pace.

Moreover, the Dolphins' secondary has been slumping lately.� Patrick Surtain

is having a Pro-Bowl caliber year, but Sam Madison is not living up to the

reputation he established for himself in previous years.� By his own

admission, he has been a disasppointment this season.� The Bills picked on

him two weeks ago, and the Raiders will likely pick on him this week.� Since

Surtain is likely to be assigned to Jerry Rice most of the day, Brown may be

targeted more frequently than he has been in recent weeks.

Projection: 74 yards receiving, 0.7 TDs