This column will take a look at the matchups of three “bubble” players each week – not guys you’ll automatically keep in the lineup week in and week out, but guys who are borderline starters depending on their matchups.

 

Week 1 Recap:  I was way off.  I told you to sit Marty Booker and he exploded for 198 yards and a TD.  I told you to start William Green and he stumbled along for 17 yards on 8 carries.  If I can keep giving advice like that, this column will be extremely useful to you: just do the opposite of whatever I say.

What Happened: I expected both the Bears and the Browns to be able to run the ball effectively against poor the run defenses they were facing.  Both teams struggled on the ground early, so they turned to the passing game for help.  Good for Booker, bad for Green.  I advised a "wait and see" stance on Brian Griese, and he had a mediocre day with 202 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs.  Call that one a draw.
Bubble Watch Record to date: 0-2-1.

 

Week 2 Bubble Players

 

RB: Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis is coming off a torn ACL suffered early in training camp last year, but he ran well last week against the Panthers, hitting the hole decisively and showing the vision, power, and quick feet that helped him gain 1364 yards as a rookie in 2000.

 

This week, Lewis faces a Tampa Bay defense with some big names in its front seven -- Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks -- but that hasn't been as effective against the run as it should be.  In its last five games in 2001, the Bucs gave up an average of 110 rushing yards per game, which is pretty average.  (NFL average = 113 yards per game.)  They gave up 109 yards to Deuce McAllister last week as they faced a Saints team that struggled to run the ball toward the end of last year.

 

The fact that the Ravens only scored seven points against the Panthers in week 1 is a concern, but Chris Redman actually looked fairly sharp for the most part (other than a couple of bad decisions where he forced the ball into coverage), so the Bucs won't be able to ignore the downfield passing game.  The Ravens' makeshift offensive line is also a concern, but they did pave the way for a 4.1 YPC last week.

 

The Ravens had an uncharacteristically low 19 rushing attempts in week 1 against the Panthers.  Expect that number to increase this week, and look for Jamal Lewis to exceed the 64 yards on 17 carries he picked up in the opener.  He's worth considering this week as a fantasy starter.

 

Projection: 24 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD; 3 receptions for 28 yards.



QB: Drew Bledsoe

Drew Bledsoe's change of scenery appears to be doing him good.  It's been a few years since he's shown the enthusiasm he showed last week in his first game as a Bill.

 

The Bills threw for over 3700 yards last year with Rob Johnson and Alex Van Pelt at QB.  Bledsoe could end up with over 4000.  He's got a talented group of receivers to spread the ball around to, and with the apparent emergence of Travis Henry, the Bills have a legitimate rushing attack to keep opposing defenses honest.

 

This week, Bledsoe faces what is probably the worst pass defense in the NFL.  CB Corey Chavous and FS Ronnie Bradford lack the speed to excel in pass coverage.  Chavous does not match up well with Eric Moulds or Peerless Price, and Bledsoe has the savvy to exploit whatever mismatches he's given.  CB Eric Kelly and SS Willie Offord are better athletes than Chavous and Bradford, but they lack experience and will make mistakes.  (Offord is a rookie; Kelly is a second-year player.)  In week 1, this Vikings unit gave up 297 yards passing to Jim Miller and the Bears, who could have had a lot more than that.  (Miller missed some open receivers in the first half, and his receivers dropped some easy passes as well.)

 

Bledsoe should have a very pleasant Sunday.

 

Projection: 19 of 34 for 264 yards and 2 TDs.



WR: Curtis Conway

Maybe I haven't learned my lesson from last week.  I figured Marty Booker wouldn't play a big role because the Bears would be able to move the ball successfully on the ground.  My thinking on Curtis Conway this week is similar.

 

In their season opener, the Chargers racked up 241 rushing yards against what was supposed to be a very stingy Bengal run defense.  Meanwhile, the Houston Texans gave up 155 yards rushing on 6.5 yards per carry to the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  That last statistic is a bit misleading since 46 of those yards came in one chunk on a long TD run by third-string RB Michael Wiley, and another 21-yard chunk came on a Joey Galloway reverse.  Other than that, the Texans run defense played okay, giving up 83 yards on 21 carries to the tandem of Emmitt Smith and Troy Hambrick (4.0 YPC).

 

Still, the Chargers should be able to control the ball on the ground against the Texans, and, particularly if they can establish an early lead, will pound the ball all day to shorten the game.

 

Curtis Conway faces a tough matchup against CB Aaron Glenn (who made a lot of plays against the Cowboys), and Drew Brees may have fewer than 20 pass attempts for the second week in a row.  Conway is always a threat to make a few big plays, but isn't a safe bet this week.

 

Projection: 4 catches for 46 yards and 0.3 TDs.