This column will take a look at the matchups of three “bubble” players each week – not guys you’ll automatically keep in the lineup week in and week out, but guys who are borderline starters depending on their matchups.

 

Week 5 Recap:  I told you to play Jamal Lewis, sit Jay Fiedler, and play Donald Driver (predicting a top 12 performance).  What Happened: Lewis failed to get in the endzone, but his 187 yards rushing made him a worthy starter.  Fiedler threw for only 190 yards, but his two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown meant you didn’t want him on your bench.  Driver finished with 133 total yards and a touchdown, good for around the #6 WR in most scoring systems. Bubble Watch Record: 2-1.  Season to date: 5-8-2.

 

Week 6 Bubble Players

 

RBs Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow vs. the Seahawks

 

During the preseason, most people felt that either one of these guys, if he had the backfield to himself, would easily be a top 10 back; but since they would split carries, neither one would realize his full fantasy potential.  So far, that has indeed been the case.  Although Hearst has retained his status as the primary rushing threat, Barlow has been stealing 10 to 15 touches a game – not enough to give him much fantasy value in his own right, but enough to detract from Hearst’s.

 

For those of you who handcuffed Hearst to Barlow this year, hoping one or the other would break out, this may be a good week to start them both.

 

Hearst is the smaller back of the two (215 pounds versus 238), but is actually the tougher inside runner.  He doesn’t have the same kind of shiftiness or breakaway speed he did several years ago, but he’s a smart, patient runner with great vision and instincts who can find the crease and keep his momentum heading upfield.  He’s a complete player who can block and catch as well as he runs.

 

Barlow has a better combination of power and speed than Hearst does, but he lacks Hearst’s ability to read his blocks and wait for the play to develop in front of him.  He’s better running outside than he is running between the tackles, but he’ll improve all phases of his game as he gains experience.

 

After a slow start in their first two games against the Giants and the Broncos, the Hearst-Barlow rushing attack has come to life in their last two games against the Redskins and Rams.  Another favorable matchup awaits them this week as they face a Seahawks team hasn’t slowed down an opposing RB yet.  In week 1, Charlie Garner amassed 127 rushing yards against them on 8.5 yards per carry.  In week 2, Thomas Jones exploded for 173 yards against them on 7.2 yards per carry.  In week 3, Tiki Barber had 109 total yards against them while Ron Dayne had 56 of his own.  In week 4, Michael Bennett rushed for 91 yards against them on 6.1 yards per carry, racking up 135 total yards on the day while Moe Williams added another 96.

 

The Seahawks undoubtedly spent their bye week trying to fix things, and getting DT John Randle back should help them.  Randle, who returns after having microfracture knee surgery in February, is an explosive player inside (and a superior trash-talker).  However, rookie DT Bernard Rockie has filled in competently in Randle’s absence; he and fellow DT Chad Eaton haven’t been the source of the team’s weakness against the run.  The weakness has been the linebackers’ inability to hold up at the point of attack and make plays.  SLB Marcus Bell lacks the strength and technique to shed blocks, and is often a step slow getting to the ball.  MLB Kacyvenski Isaiah, replacing the departed Levon Kirkland, also has trouble shedding blocks and will miss tackles due to overpursuit.  The Seahawks’ best linebacker is 10-year veteran WLB Chad Brown who still has the speed to chase down plays from behind, but struggles when teams run right at him.  While still an exceptional linebacker overall, a run-stuffer he is not.

 

Expect the Forty-Niners to establish their ground game early and to stick with it as long as it works, which should be all day.

 

Projections: Hearst – 20 carries, 107 yards, 1 TD (27 yards receiving); Barlow – 14 carries, 84 yards, 0.5 TDs (15 yards receiving).

 

QB Mark Brunell vs. the Titans

 

The Jaguars, at 3-1, are off to an impressive start this season.  When Mark Brunell, Fred Taylor, and Jimmy Smith are all healthy, this offense can put points on the board.

 

Mark Brunell has long been a better NFL quarterback than a fantasy quarterback.  He’s an athletic QB with a quick release, fine arm strength, and very good touch and accuracy.  Fred Taylor keeps defenses honest, and Jimmy Smith is one of the more reliable targets in the league.

 

This week, Brunell faces a Titans defense that has been better against the run than the pass.  The Titans have given up 276 passing yards per game this year on 7.59 yards per attempt.  After the Titans’ defense played well against the Eagles in week 1, the Cowboys, Browns, Raiders, and Redskins have all subsequently enjoyed success against them through the air.  Giving up over 9.5 yards per attempt against Gannon is understandable, if not forgivable, but that’s what the Titans surrendered to Quincy Carter as well.

 

CB Samari Rolle is a good corner with the size and speed to match up with Jimmy Smith as long as he gets help from the safety, but on the other side, CB Andre Dyson can be picked on.  He’s got great speed, but doesn’t close on the ball and make as many plays as he should.  FS Lance Schulters and rookie SS Tank Williams are both big hitters who play the run better than the pass.

 

Look for Brunell to spread the ball around effectively, getting Fred Taylor, Patrick Johnson, and even Kyle Brady involved in the passing game.  He should end up with pretty good numbers on the day, warranting a fantasy start.

 

Projection: 19 of 29 for 252 yards and 2 TDs.

 

WR: Darrell Jackson vs. the Forty-Niners

 

Darrell Jackson is a talented receiver who is always a threat to have a big game, but I don’t like his chances this week.

 

Jackson doesn’t have prototypical size or speed, but he has exceptional quickness out of his cuts and has a knack for getting open.  While he lacks Koren Robinson’s straight-line speed, he has shown the ability to get deep and make big plays.  He is probably the ideal #2 WR, but until Koren Robinson grows into his potential, Jackson will be Dilfer’s primary target.

 

Jackson exploded for 174 yards against the Cardinals in week 2, but other than that has had a disappointing season as the Seahawks’ passing offense has been up and down.  This could be a down week.  After the Niners were picked apart by Kerry Collins in week 1, they’ve tightened up and played very well against the Broncos, Redskins, and Rams.  CB Ahmed Plummer is a reliable corner who seldom gets burned.  One of the most technically sound corners in the league, his only weakness is that he lacks ideal speed to stay deep with the league’s fastest receivers.  He matches up well with Jackson in that regard.  CBs Jason Webster and rookie Mike Rumph also have excellent quickness, and safeties Zack Bronson and Tony Parrish are solid.

 

Benching a receiver with Jackson’s ability can always come back to haunt fantasy owners, and some of you may not have the depth at WR to bench him anyway.  But if you’ve got several receivers in the same general tier and need to sit one of them, you should consider giving Jackson the week off.  There’s a good chance he won’t help you.

 

Projection: 61 receiving yards, 0.3 TDs.