This column looks at the matchups of three “bubble” players each week – not guys you’ll automatically keep in the lineup week in and week out, but guys who are borderline starters depending on their matchups.

 

Week 6 Recap:  I told you to play Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow, play Mark Brunell, and sit Darrell Jackson.  What Happened: Hearst and Barlow finished tied for 21st and 16th among RBs, respectively – not bad, but not great.  I’ll call it a push.  Brunell was injured in the first quarter – bad luck for those of us who started him, but that’s part of the game.  Jackson was limited to 53 yards, no TDs. Bubble Watch Record: 1-1-1. Season to date: 6-9-3.

 

Week 7 Bubble Players

 

RB Michael Bennett vs. the Jets

 

The Vikings drafted Michael Bennett with their first round pick in 2001 to replace Robert Smith.  Like Smith, Bennett has track star speed and plays every bit as fast as he times.  Bennett lacks Smith’s ability to read his blocks and let the play develop in front of him, and he’s not as good a receiver as Smith was, but he’s got all the physical tools to become an excellent runner: blazing speed, the ability to change direction on a dime, and more power than you might expect from a back his size.

 

Aside from Bennett’s lack of football experience (he started only one year at Wisconsin before declaring himself eligible for the draft), two other factors have been detracting from Bennett’s value as a fantasy RB: (1) he’s had to split time with other backs, and (2) the Vikings’ offensive line has been poor.

 

The first factor is no longer as much of a concern as it had been.  As of last week, the Vikings have declared Bennett to be their featured back, not just part of a committee.  Against the Lions, Bennett took 16 of the team’s 18 handoffs.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that he didn’t get the red zone carries, and it looks like Moe Williams will continue to vulture TDs from him.

 

The second factor, the Vikings’ offensive line, is still generally a concern; but this week its mediocrity will be counterbalanced by the surprisingly bad front seven, at least so far this year, of the Jets.  On paper, the Jets’ front seven looks about as good as any in the league.  DEs John Abraham and Shaun Ellis, both first round picks in 2000, and backup Byran Thomas, this year’s first round pick, all have the physical talent to be premier players in this league.  However, after bulking up last year, Ellis appears a step slow most of the time; and Thomas hasn’t developed as quickly as the Jets were hoping he would.  Inside, DT Jason Ferguson doesn’t look the same as he did before last year’s shoulder injury; and while Larry Webster does a good job of occupying blockers, he rarely makes plays himself.

 

The real disappointment in the Jets’ front seven this year, however, have been the linebackers.  Once again, on paper, SLB Mo Lewis, WLB Sam Cowart, and MLB Marvin Jones are as good a linebacking trio as any in the league.  All have been Pro Bowl-level performers in the past.  However, Lewis and Jones are clearly on the downside of their careers: each one looks like he’s lost a step.  And Cowart is being taken out of games by opponents who are lining their TEs up on his side of the line, which forces Cowart to move up to the line of scrimmage instead of playing in space where he’s more comfortable.  (For a New York Times article describing this situation, and how the Jets plan to counter it, click here.  For a similar article from the New York Post, click here.)

 

I’ll believe the Jets have figured out how to stop opposing RBs when I see it.  So far, they’ve given up an average of 191 yards rushing per game on 5.6 yards per carry.  You can feel pretty good about starting Bennett against them this week.

 

Projection: 22 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD (31 yards receiving).

 

QB Jim Miller vs. the Lions

 

Jim Miller is not a great pure passer, and he’s certainly no threat to run with the ball; but he’s a tough competitor and an effective leader who knows how to play within the offense and get the job done.  He’s got pretty good arm strength, pretty good accuracy, and avoids taking sacks by getting rid of the ball on time.  Overall this year, he’s had slightly above-average stats against below-average competition.  Fortunately for him, his competition doesn’t get any better this week.

 

The Lions come into this game giving up an average of 291 yards passing per game on 8.08 yards per attempt.  Those numbers aren’t quite as bad as they seem once you look at whom they’ve faced (their last three opponents, the Packers, Saints, and Vikings, can all throw the ball), but they’re still bad.  CBs Todd Lyght and Chris Cash are at opposite ends of their respective careers, but neither one has been very effective.  Lyght is on his last legs as an NFL cornerback; in his 12th season, he never did have great deep speed, and he’s got less now than he did earlier in his career.  As a result, he gives up a lot of big plays on deep routes.  Cash, a rookie sixth round pick, is undersized at 5-11, 170, and is more quick than fast.  He’d be picked on a lot more if there were a solid corner across from him.  (Eric Davis, who had started at corner earlier in the year until struggling through a hamstring injury, appears to have lost his job to Cash for good, and is reportedly working at free safety.  Davis is an 11th-year veteran who, like Lyght, no longer has the speed play to corner effectively.)

 

Safeties Brian Walker, Corey Harris, and Lamar Campbell are all better against the run than the pass.  Jim Miller should have no problem getting the ball to his receivers downfield.

 

Projection: 23 of 35 for 250 yards and 2 TDs.

 

WR: James Thrash vs. the Buccaneers

 

James Thrash is on pace for 1,200 total yards and 12 TDs this season.  Moreover, he’s been a consistent fantasy producer, catching a TD pass in 4 of his first 5 games.  He’s a big, durable receiver with better straight-line speed than quickness out of his cuts.  His hands aren’t as consistent as you’d like, but he’s got a knack for coming up with big plays.

 

This week, however, Thrash has a tough matchup against a Buccaneer secondary that’s playing very well right now.

 

The Bucs play a lot of two-deep zone defense, which suits their personnel extremely well.  In a two-deep zone, the corners generally roll up and play tight coverage outside in a short zone, and are often not asked to turn and run with the WRs down the sideline.  (I won’t get into cloud vs. sky coverage.)  That suits CBs Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly, who are both physical corners who play with confidence and are not afraid to take chances.  Neither one has top man-to-man cover skills, but excel playing the short zone.  SS John Lynch is one of the more intimidating hitters in the NFL, and can separate the receiver from the ball in dramatic fashion.  He makes up for a lack of great speed by reading and anticipating, and is always around the ball.  FS Dexter Jackson struggled last year, often taking incorrect angles to the ball, but has been much more consistent this season.

 

The Bucs’ secondary is a classic case of putting the right guys in the right system and letting them gel.  This unit is much more than the sum of its parts.  They’ve been holding teams to 172 passing yards per game on a league-low 4.28 yards per attempt.

 

Thrash will have plenty more good games this year, but I’d sit him this week if you have another option at WR.

 

Projection: 57 receiving yards, 0.3 TDs.