Mock Drafts
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Posted 8/13 by Sean Buchanan - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Every year right before the fantasy football season I start to get antsy. Anticipation
is so high for the following season I can't stand it. I'm impulse buying any
and every fantasy football magazine I can find and overreacting on each piece
of news that comes down the pipe. I'm apt to cut a guy if he breaks a nail simply
because I have no other news to analyze. This type of anticipation and overreaction
can seriously handicap your season (or future seasons if you're in a keeper
league) if you're not careful. The best way that I know to combat this is to
take part in mock drafts. Mock drafts are great tools to give you an idea of
the highly touted players for the following year, the highly coveted sleepers,
and the guys who will consistently slip below their true value.
I'm sure everybody's heard of a mock draft by now, seeing as how Mel Kiper
Jr. does his own highly publicized mock for the real NFL draft every year. A
fantasy football mock draft works in exactly the same way. To get things started
off, a group of guidelines are set to help steer the draft in a certain direction.
Since the number of starters at each position, required positions, and league
scoring style play a big part in fantasy football drafting, these parameters
need to be included in the mock draft. Since these exact same factors come into
play when drafting your real team, I will attempt to recap some of the more
important points now.
- Starting Lineup: Usual lineups for mock drafts are as follows: 1
QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF. This is pretty standard stuff and shouldn't
be new to anybody, but it lets you know what kind of positions you need to
select during your draft. Sometimes there could be 3 WRs or 2 QBs, but for
the most part, the drafts that I've taken part in stick with this basic formula.
- Required Positions: This usually deals with the TE, with many times
the TEs being lumped in with the WRs. Another oddity may be the inclusion
of a flex position. Flex positions are usually either WR/TE or WR/RB giving
you an option to start either of two positions at one spot. This allows for
a lot of flexibility since the depth of TEs and RBs isn't that great while
there always seem to be plenty of breakout WRs every year. Now you can take
that depth at WR and turn it into something productive replacing an under-producing
RB or TE that you would normally need to ride out simply because of starting
lineup stipulations.
- League Scoring Style: This is the single, biggest factor when drafting
a team, be it mock or otherwise. If you fail to pay attention to the scoring
style of your league, you will fail to win.
- I've seen many variations, with QB TDs being anywhere from 3-6 points.
This greatly affects the value of QBs in your league as they are always
going to have the most TDs in the league. If QB TDs count for 6 points,
which would be the same amount generally used for passing and rushing
TDs, then even a mediocre QB can be more valuable than a top 10 RB. Take,
for example, Brad Johnson and Travis Henry. On Footballguys.com, the latest
projections have Johnson going for 22 Passing TDs while Henry goes for
12 TOTAL TDs. Clearly, if all TDs are equal, then Johnson, ranked as the
17th best QB suddenly becomes as valuable as Henry, the 8th ranked RB.
You can see how this would be an important detail to pay attention to.
Henry is a first round pick in most drafts while Johnson is going in the
mid to late rounds.
- One other common variation is the inclusion of a point per reception.
This will catapult WRs to the top of the rankings. Based on 6 points per
TD, and since WRs score almost all their TDs receiving, then they are
scoring 7 points almost every time they score a TD. Not too mention the
fact that on that particular scoring drive they may have caught 2 other
passes, and amassed 20 yards in the process. In a scoring style of 1 point
per 10 yards, that receiver just gained a total of 10 points on that drive:
20 yards at 1 point/10 yards = 2 + 3 reception at 1 point/reception =
3 + receiving TD at 6 points/TD = 6; which = 10. If a WR is scoring 10,
while a RB on the same drive will only score 8 (20 yards for 2 + a TD
for 6 = 8) then WRs are suddenly just as valuable if not more valuable
than RBs. A receiver like Marvin Harrison, who caught 143 passes last
year, could easily be ranked as the top player in fantasy football. If
this is the type of scoring system you are in, then you need to look for
RBs who are also their teams' top receiving option. Some of these players
are Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk, Charlie Garner, and Tiki Barber. Coincidentally,
these guys are considered some of the best at their position
OK, now that we've gotten past all of that, lets get into the particulars of
the Mock Draft itself. Usually when signing up for a mock draft you have the
option of selecting where you want to pick. This is great as it allows you to
really use the mock as a learning tool. I know, I know, it can be damned hard
to resist the temptation to pick slot #1 and be done with it. However, if you're
really going to gain some valuable knowledge from this process, then you need
to be true to yourself and pick the slot that you will occupy when your real
draft rolls around. After selecting your draft slot, it's time to strategize.
One of the biggest tools I have come across for drafting my real team and a
mock team is the VBD application on Footballguys.com. It, along with the knowledge
gained from mock drafts, have helped me reach the Super Bowl in my league two
years in a row, not to mention winning the championship in another. Now you
have the chance to combine both by using the VBD at your mock draft. Just come
on over to Footballguys.com, download the VBD, enter in your league settings,
and draft away. When mocking, I try many different approaches, which is the
beauty of the mock draft. Since this team won't ever see the playing field,
feel free to experiment with your picks anyway you like to put together the
best team possible. Here are a couple drafting styles to try.
- Traditional Draft: The first style of mock is following the normal
style of drafting, which is usually RB, RB, WR, QB. While this is widely regarded
as the best way to go when drafting, it doesn't get the blood pumping, as
there's no excitement. Everybody and their grandmother drafts this way, so
it's basically a follow the leader style. You know you'll have a couple solid
RBs, but you might not have a team that can really make an impact and take
you to the championship.
- "Reverse Draft": This is a style I saw in one of the impulse
buy magazines I have in my bathroom at the house so I can't claim it for my
own. It pushes the theory of top WRs first, obviously if receptions count
a point then this theory gains more credibility, but for the sake of argument
we'll keep scoring style traditional. The theory behind this is the depth
at QB and the gamble on sleeper or combo RBs. It goes something like this
WR, WR, QB, RB, RB. If you're able to score a Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison
with those two WR picks, then you're golden. Those two guys will produce like
the top RBs and are usually available later in the draft. The depth at QB
will allow you to select a Peyton Manning or Jeff Garcia in the third round;
both projected to be top 5 QBs this year at Footballguys.com. Finally, you're
going to take a few long shots in the 4th and 5th rounds to fill out your
RBs. Guys here are going to be the ones put in a new, promising position to
produce or two players in the same backfield that could produce good numbers.
Stacey Mack and Trung Canidate are examples of the first, while Garrison Hearst/Kevan
Barlow, Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue, are examples of the 2nd kind. Personally
I like this style of drafting as it's exciting to go away from the norm and
really allows you to have a great team if two of those RBs set themselves
apart.
What I feel the most valuable part of mock drafting is the average draft position
information. This is usually a spreadsheet that has the final tabulations of
many mock drafts done at one web site that allows you to look up where a certain
player is consistently being selected. By entering in your league size, the
position you're looking for, and the scoring type your league uses, you can
get back a full list of players at that position. Information included on this
list will usually have that players' highest spot selected, lowest spot selected,
and average spot taken in all the drafts. This is great information when you
head into your real draft, as you can quickly come back to this list to make
sure that you're not selecting a guy at an early pick that can be had later
at a better value.
With the benefits reaped from VBD, Average Draft info, and the overall mock
draft experience, I am able to satisfy the antsy, impatient, impulse magazine
buying, fantasy football owner in me. By using the mock to learn how to better
fill out my team, I better prepare myself to make that run to the championship.
If you're interested in trying out a mock draft for yourself, check out Antsports.com
and Xpertleagues.com.
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