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Eliminating Luck

How much does luck have to do with winning a fantasy football championship? It's a question that has been asked a million times, yet has never truly been answered. Those of us who consistently finish at or near the top of our leagues would like to think our success is a result of the countless hours studying statistics, reading the latest news, identifying sleepers, making projections, and utilizing our favorite draft day strategy. However, it never fails that each year at least one guy, armed with only a magazine and a six-pack, manages to find his way into the playoffs (last year in my league his name was Adam, and the beer - Milwaukee's Best). This is the guy who each year says things like "Does anybody have an extra piece of paper and a pen?" and, in the 9th round, "Did anyone take Corey Dillon yet? I don't have him crossed off."

It should be the goal of every fantasy football commissioner to set up a league that gives the advantage to the guys who know fantasy football inside and out, and not Adam… I mean, guys like Adam. By tweaking your league just a bit, you can eliminate much of the luck associated with fantasy football, thus ensuring that Mr. "I got lucky by having to start Ron Dayne and his 80yrd, 2TD performance in the playoffs last year, knocking the commissioner out of the playoffs" doesn't ever make it to the fantasy Super Bowl again.

Convert to an auction style draft.

The easiest way to separate the men from the boys is to switch from the traditional serpentine draft to the auction. No longer will the weak be able to survive by simply crossing off names and taking the next highest player on their 8 month old cheatsheet. A successful auction draft requires constant involvement, a carefully constructed game plan, and the ability to make quick, accurate decisions. There's no more rewarding feeling than watching the unprepared owner trying to keep up with the fast-paced auction draft.

Increase the number of starters.

In 2002 I had Ricky Williams, Deuce McAllister, Clinton Portis, and William Green on my roster, but the maximum number of running back I could start was 2. Even though my superior draft left me loaded with stud running back (OK, maybe Green isn't a stud RB, but you get my point), it never translated into fantasy points. It always seems that the stronger players draft a better team from top to bottom, but it doesn't always mean a higher fantasy score. Add a few more players to your starting lineup requirements, like a 3rd WR and a flex position, and watch the stronger teams rise to the top. While the weaker teams are left choosing between the Brandon Stokleys and the Peter Warricks of the league for their final starters, the stronger teams will be inserting Todd Pinkstons and Warrick Dunns to their already solid starting lineup. You'll be amazed at how difficult it will be for some teams to find quality players to start.

Implement a blind auction free agency policy.

Nothing benefits weaker owners more than leagues which give the lower record teams first choice of free agents. Many leagues have a first-come first-serve method of picking up free agents, but this method seems to be unfair to those without instant internet access (apparently there are people out there without the internet). By using the blind auction free agency method you avoid rewarding underperformance, while at the same time add a new strategic aspect to the league. Savvy owners will use this method to their advantage, while the less informed owners will struggle to get quality pickups.

Give out a second win/loss for the week

This may sound crazy, but I've used this method in my league for 3 years and have enjoyed great success with it. In addition to the traditional one win/loss each team receives in a head-to-head league, award a second win/loss based on the number of points scored relative to the other teams in the league. Each week, give an additional win to the teams who finish in the top half in scoring. Likewise, give a loss to the teams who finish in the bottom half. This combines the excitement of a head-to-head league with the fairness (the team that scores the most points wins) of a total points system. The second win/loss system decreases the effect of luck based on how your opponent did for the week. For example, say your team scores the 2nd highest points for the week. Unfortunately you happened to play the team that scored the most points. Had you played any other team in the league you would have won, but because you were unlucky, you received a loss. In fact, even though you scored the 2nd most points, you received the same outcome as the team who scored the lowest for the week. Under the second win/loss system, you would have received 1 loss for the head-to-head game, and 1 win for having a good week, thus compensating you for being "unlucky".

Although luck can never completely be eliminated from fantasy football, there are steps a league can take to reduce it. By following these steps, hopefully you will be spared the pain I felt last year watching the guy who took Brian Finneran in the fourth round and Alge Crumpler in the 5th because he "liked their names" playing in the championship game.

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