The Truth About Defenses
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Posted 8/26 by Rich Conway - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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Quick, what's the most important ingredient in building a winning fantasy football
team? Is it drafting two stud RBs? Maybe it's getting good value in each round
of the draft? Maybe it's finding that diamond in the rough, drafting a stud
in the late rounds? In reality, it is none of these things. The most important
thing, by far, is understanding the rules of your league. In particular,
you need to understand the scoring system and the lineup requirements. For instance,
some leagues are starting to require two QBs in the starting lineup, while others
are switching to one RB instead of two. Some leagues award points per reception,
or subtract points for fumbles and interceptions. Some leagues award six points
for a passing TD, while others award four points, or even three points. You
need to know and understand all these rules in order to win your league.
For instance, last year, Michael Vick was the #3 QB in my league, based on
our scoring system that awards four points per passing TD. However, if we had
awarded six points for a passing TD, Peyton Manning would have surpassed Vick
(and Daunte Culpepper as well), and Trent Green would have only a single point
behind Vick. Now, you may say this is no big deal, and you'd probably be right.
So you had Vick, and he probably finished anywhere from 3rd to 6th, depending
on your scoring system. Big deal, the difference in points was probably minimal
either way.
On the other hand, your league's scoring rules can play a huge factor when
dealing with defenses. Some leagues count things like touchdowns, turnovers,
and sacks for defenses. Other leagues count points allowed or even yardage allowed.
Still other leagues, like mine, have terribly complex scoring rules for defenses,
and understanding those rules can be the difference between winning and losing
your league. Just for fun, here are the exact scoring rules for defenses in
my league.
Statistic
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Points
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Statistic
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Points
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Fumble Recovery
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2.0
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0 Points Allowed
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10.0
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Interception
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2.0
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1-20 Points Allowed
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8.0 - (0.4 * points)
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Blocked FG
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1.5
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21-42 Points Allowed
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0.0 - (0.35 * points)
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Blocked Punt
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2.5
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43+ Points Allowed
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-8.0
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TD (Fumble / INT)
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4.0
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.
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.
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TD (Blocked FG)
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4.5
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0-115 Yards Allowed
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5.0
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TD (Blocked Punt)
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3.5
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116-315 Yards Allowed
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5.0 - (0.025 * yards)
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Blocked PAT
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1.0
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316-564 Yards Allowed
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0.0 - (0.02 * yards)
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Sack
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1.25
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565+ Yards Allowed
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-5.0
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Safety
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2.0
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.
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.
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Step 2-pt Conversion
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1.0
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0-8 1st Downs Allowed
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3.0
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Forced Punt
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0.1
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9-27 1st Downs Allowed
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3.0 - (0.3 * 1st downs)
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Stop 4th Down Conversion
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0.1
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28+ 1st Downs Allowed
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-3.0
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As you can see, these rules are somewhat complex, and on a bad day, a defense
could easily give you a negative number. What is not so readily apparent is
that on a good day, a defense could easily be the highest scoring team of the
week. For instance, Tampa Bay scored 19+ points an astonishing six times, including
highs of 29.4 in week 2 and 28.5 in week 4. In week 12 last year, Atlanta's
defense put up an astonishing 43 .9 points! Atlanta's owner was high scorer
that week, and won his game 131 - 91.
As it turns out, the Tampa Bay owner won two of the three leagues I played
in last year. And yet, some fantasy sites would say one of those owners was
crazy for picking a defense in the 8th round. In fact, most web sites tell you
to wait until the last few rounds of the draft before drafting your defenses
and kickers. Often, this advice doesn't come with any qualifiers about scoring
systems. I always hope some of my league-mates take this advice, as I can guarantee
you that waiting until the last few rounds in my league will net you the Arizona
and Detroit defenses, along with a spot out of the playoffs.
Think back to the 2000 season, when Baltimore won the Super Bowl with their
dominating defense, and Tennessee's defense won statistical honors with fewest
yards allowed. In my original league, one of our owners drafted both these defenses
back to back, in rounds 5 and 6, before drafting a QB or a TE. In most leagues,
this would be crazy, and a sure fire way to waste some of your best draft picks.
In this league, that owner ended up averaging 17.5 points from his defense,
finished with the most total points, and won the league.
Some of the 2002 season rankings for defense: Tampa Bay first with 273 points
(4 points more than Marvin Harrison in our league), Philadelphia second with
232, Washington twelfth with 136, New York Jets twenty-fourth with 84, and Arizona
last with a paltry 39. So, in a 12-team league, the top ranked defense outscored
the lowest starting defense by an average of 8.5 points per game. That 8.5 point
differential was larger than the difference between our #1 and #12 QBs, larger
than the difference between our #1 and #24 WRs, and larger than the difference
between the starting kickers and tight ends as well.
Conclusion
When analyzing defenses, make it a priority to understand how points are
awarded to defenses. It can make the difference between following some magazine's
advice and scoring 5 points a week, or drafting defenses at their real value,
and scoring 15 or more points a week.
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