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IDP Analysis - AFC South (Part 7 of 8)

Houston Texans

In an attempt not to overwhelm his personnel in the franchises first season, Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio limited his 3-4 playbook. A planned expansion in 03 should find the Texans being more aggressive on defense and blitzing a lot more. Added pressure on the quarterback will not only boost their sack totals, it'll foster more playmaking from the defensive backfield. With 10 of 11 starters returning, this should be a much improved unit over the team that finished third worst in the NFL with 19 takeaways. Jeff Posey, last years starting outside linebacker, signed with Buffalo as a free-agent, but the Texans feel that they signed a player who's better suited for the pass rush duties of the position in Charlie Clemons.

Defensive Line:

Gary Walker (DE) - Over his eight year career, Gary Walker has been one of the top producing defensive tackles in the game, averaging 48 tackles and six sacks from 97-01. At defensive end in Houston's 3-4 defense, a position which produces like a 4-3 tackle, he was able to lead the line with 6.5 sacks and compile 52 tackles along the way. At 30 years old, he still possesses nice pass rush skills and should build on last years success to land in the top 40 among defensive linemen.

Jerry DeLoach (DE) - DeLoach started all 16 games last season, his second, but was only able to post 32 tackles and one sack. A lack of playmaking ability may eventually cost him his job, but he's currently slated to start across from Walker. At 26 years old, he's got some time to develop, but as of right now he's worthless fantasy wise.

Seth Payne (NT) - Like Walker, Seth Payne came over last year from Jacksonville and didn't disappoint. You usually don't see much production from the nose tackle in a 3-4 defense, but Payne was able to break the mold with 65 tackles (56 solo) and one sack. He's shown better sack potential in the past (five in 01), but he will not approach that from the nose. Very productive from his position, he's still a borderline roster prospect unless your league splits linemen. He'll likely end up in the 65-70 range for defensive linemen, top 15 tackle. There's a chance that he could move outside into DeLoach's spot, but that depends on the development of second year player Charles Hill.

Charles Hill (NT) - A third round pick in 02, Charles Hill saw limited playing time as a rookie and only posted two tackles. Whether he sees more time this or not this year, it doesn't matter. His fantasy value would not increase. But, if he allows Seth Payne to play end, which would likely increase his sack total, Payne would jump into the top 50.

Corey Sears (DL) - After having offseason surgery to relieve an asthma problem, Sears is expected to be the top backup at all three defensive line spots. He's a veteran journeyman with no fantasy value.

Linebackers:

Jamie Sharper (ILB) - Sharper's first season in the middle of the 3-4 defense saw him post a career high of 137 tackles with 5.5 sacks and a one way ticket to stardom. A complete linebacker with a nice size and speed combo who, at 28 years old, gets to watch this defense develop while in his prime. I expect similar production from Sharper in 03 which places him on the edge of the top 10 linebackers.

Jay Foreman (ILB) - Now entering his fifth season, Foreman teams up with Jamie Sharper to form a very imposing middle linebacker duo. While showing potential with the Bills in 01, 97 tackles in his first year as a full-time starter, no one expected him to blow up the way that he did last year, matching Sharper's tackle total of 137. He was a free-agent over the offseason and received looks from quite a few teams, but realized that he may not be able to find a better situation to fit his skills than the one he's already in. Decent coverage skills saw him pick up eight passes defended last year, but a lack of sacks and interceptions will keep his value down in the 30-35 range.

Charlie Clemons (OLB) - Clemons free-agency couldn't have come at a better time. Not fitting in with the Saints any longer (they actually asked him to stop the run), he suffered through a season which saw his sack total drop from 13.5 in 01 to 0.5. In Houston, he was brought in to replace Jeff Posey and will be allowed to do what he does best...rush the passer. At 31 years old, it's left to be seen if he has anything to offer besides a pass rush, but he should be good for 70 tackles and at least nine sacks, placing him in the 55-60 range for linebackers.

Kailee Wong (OLB) - A defensive end in college, Wong was converted into a linebacker by the Vikings, and it paid off with averages of 105 tackles, 2.5 sacks and two interceptions during the 2000-01 seasons. With the size, speed and strength to excel as on outside linebacker in the 3-4, he wasn't able to transfer the production over from Minnesota, posting just 44 tackles in his first season with Houston. He did pick up a career high 5.5 sacks last year, but he must improve the tackle numbers, or approach double digit sacks, to have any value to us. A finish in the top 80 should keep him off of your roster, but he's definitely deserving of a watchful eye.

Antwaan Peek (OLB) - Peek is a rookie third round pick who's converting from defensive end to outside linebacker in the 3-4. A project, he's shown impressive pass rushing skills and may see time this year on third downs. Quality long term prospect, especially considering the Texans' current starters.

Defensive Backs:

Eric Brown (SS) - An unrestricted free-agent who re-signed with the Texans, Eric Brown has a ton of potential. The 28 year old showed flashes of brilliance earlier in his career, posting 91 tackles and three interceptions as a Bronco in 2000, but his 02 season was limited by a shoulder injury that held him to his lowest production since his rookie year. Healthy, he is a force against the run who struggles in coverage, but they're able to cover that up from his strong safety position. Look for Brown to rebound this year with 80+ tackles, a sack, and 2-3 picks, making him a top 30 defensive back with potential to move up from there.

Matt Stevens (FS) - A 30 year old journeyman, Stevens has started 37 games on five different teams over his nine year career. He started all 16 games in Houston last year and recorded a career high 83 tackles, but his lack of coverage skills had the team searching for a replacement during the offseason. Even if he's able to hold onto the starting job, Stevens will have trouble reaching the top 100.

Travares Tillman (FS) - After spending his first two years in Buffalo, starting 10 games, Tillman was brought in to compete with Matt Stevens. With better range and coverage skills, he's been impressive during early camp and may push Stevens for the starting free safety job. Tillman recently suffered a fractured arm in a punt coverage drill and will be out of action for a while.

Aaron Glenn (CB) - A starter during each of his nine seasons, Glenn has put together a pretty impressive career. At 31 years old, he's small (5'9 185) but still possesses decent speed and great intangibles. His first year with the Texans saw him post career highs in both tackles (69) and passes defended (18) while coming close to his high in interceptions (5). The tackle numbers actually doubled what he was able to produce during his last couple of years with the Jets, and I don't expect him to keep setting career highs, but he's good for 50+ and five picks, making him a top 80 defensive back, top 30 cornerback.

Marcus Coleman (CB) - Coleman has very nice size at 6'2 210 and uses it well, roughing up receivers at the line. A seven year vet, he doesn't possess Glenn's speed or coverage ability, but he's averaged 66 tackles over the last three seasons and, with a couple of interceptions, will find his way into the top 50 for cornerbacks. His play has been singled out during early camp but he's still not worth a roster spot unless your league splits defensive backs.

Kenny Wright (CB) - A nice blend of youth, size, and speed, Wright returns as the Texans nickel back. He started 26 games during his first three seasons in Minnesota but didn't show much playmaking ability.



Indianapolis Colts

While Indianapolis had some standout performances in 02 (namely Mike Peterson and Dwight Freeney), their defensive unit overall was a disappointment. Dungification produced a unit that was 16th in the league with 36 sacks, tied for 28th with 10 interceptions, and tied for 21st with 27 takeaways. On a bright note, they did finish 8Th allowing just 306.8 yards. The loss of their top run defender, Mike Peterson, may hurt, as it's left to be seen if David Thornton is ready to assume a starting role in his second season, but they are hoping that having a year of experience in Tony Dungy's system will offset any changes in personnel. Needless to say, we should see a much better playmaking unit in 03, but that depends on a nice blend of youth and experience being able to blend and realize their potential.

Defensive Linemen:

Dwight Freeney (DE) - Speed, speed, speed. Even though Dwight Freeney recorded 17.5 sacks as a senior at Syracuse, many people believed that he was too small to be an NFL force. Well, many people were wrong. Freeney packs explosive quickness into his 6'1 268 frame, quickness which helped him post tremendous rookie totals of 45 solo tackles, 12 sacks, and a league leading nine forced fumbles. The scary part is, he didn't get on track until week 10, picking up 35 tackles, nine sacks, and all nine forced fumbles during the final eight games. Already one of the games elite, I have him as the #4 defensive lineman (behind Taylor, Peppers and Strahan). Long term, he could move up to #2 behind only Julius Peppers, but there are concerns as to whether he can hold up in the NFL. I would not bet against Freeney at this point.

Chad Bratzke (DL) - At 31 years old and coming off of his worst season since 97, there is concern that Chad Bratzke has begun the downswing of his career. With averages of 63 tackles and 10 sacks from 98-01, he was a regular member among the top 10 defensive linemen, but he came nowhere close to that production last year with 45 tackles and six sacks. This year, he'll leave the starting lineup and be used as a utility man, jumping between end and tackle depending on the situation. Now at 280 pounds (after playing last year at 255) he'll place a bigger emphasis on stopping the run. The position switch will lead to inconsistency and I'm bettin' that the trend from last year continues, dropping Bratzke into the 60-65 range, although a top 25 finish is always possible.

Robert Mathis (DE) - An undersized (6'2 235) rookie with great speed and pass rush ability. Remind you of anyone? A fifth round pick, Mathis isn't starter quality, yet, but he should see time across from Dwight Freeney in nickel situations. Keep an eye on Mathis' progression, based strictly on what happened with Freeney last year.

Brad Scioli (DE) - Brad Scioli, a fifth round pick in 99, spent his first three seasons in the NFL as a defensive end, starting 14 games and picking up a total of 43 tackles with six sacks. Last year, with Dwight Freeney in town, Scioli moved inside to defensive tackle and posted career highs across the board while starting all 16 games. A versatile athlete, his ability to play both end and tackle gives the Colts valuable flexibility along their line. At 6'3 280, he's not your typical defensive tackle, but he fits well into Dungy's size for speed scheme. Lining up next to Freeney should give Scioli the freedom to build on last years success and he should find himself near the top 40 defensive lineman, top 10 defensive tackle with 50+ tackles and 5-7 sacks. He's recently been placed back at end, with Chad Bratzke bumped into a utility role, so the numbers above should be solid with a chance at moving into the top 30.

Larry Triplett (DT) - Last years second round pick, Larry Triplett is their only defensive lineman that actually possesses nice size (6'2 314). Starting alongside Scioli, the Colts are hoping that his quickness and penetration will force teams to focus on Triplett at nose tackle, allowing the speedsters around him to cause havoc. Not much fantasy value here.

Josh Williams (DT) - After starting 16 games in 01, recording 49 tackles and three sacks, Williams was limited last year by a foot injury and played in only seven games, starting two. A better pass rusher than Triplett, his quickness and athleticism make him well suited for Tony Dungy's one-gap scheme. If healthy, he'll likely replace Triplett during passing downs. He's still young at 26, and he's in a contract year, but he's had health issues during his first three seasons and deserves nothing more than a watchful eye as the season progresses.

Linebackers:

David Thornton (WLB) - With Mike Peterson gone, last years fourth round pick David Thornton takes over as the new starting weakside linebacker and hopes to fill Peterson's shoes as the teams resident playmaker. A big hitter with nice speed, he spent his rookie season as a nickel linebacker and special teams player, posting just 33 tackles, but he seems to have been hand picked by Tony Dungy for a position that historically produces well in Dungy's system (insert ever popular Derrick Brooks reference here). Inexperience will keep him from matching Peterson's production this year, but he may be the key figure in Indy's defensive success and will likely approach 100 tackles with two sacks/picks. That'll make him a top 50 linebacker this year and a very nice dynasty prospect for the future.

Rob Morris (MLB) - A first round pick in 2000, Rob Morris has averaged 107 tackles and two sacks while starting 30 games at middle linebacker over the last two seasons. It took him a while to get acclimated in Dungy's defense last year, averaging just 4.8 tackles over the first 10 games, but he picked it up late with 52 tackles and three sacks over the final six games. Now that he's comfortable in the system, and in his prime at 28 years old, I expect him to build on that success as a top 30 linebacker with 120 tackles and 4.5 sacks. Arthroscopic knee surgery will keep Morris out of the early preseason games, but it's not supposed to effect his season. Keep an eye on his progress.

Marcus Washington (SLB) - After posting 94 tackles and eight sacks during his second season (01), Marcus Washington was looked at as a budding star. His first year with Tony Dungy proved to be more of a breakdown than a breakout. Relieved of his nickel pass rushing duties, he was asked upon more for coverage and run-support, and it showed in the boxscore...sort of. We see the expected drop in sacks, down to two, but we also see a huge drop in tackles (66) and only one interception. Dungy realizes that Washington's best attribute is his pass rush ability, and we'll likely see more of that in the upcoming season, but we also know that Dungy does not breed great strongside linebackers. Unless Washington is able to make a huge turnaround, which isn't unthinkable considering that he's only 25 years old, I wouldn't expect much more than a top 75 finish.

Defensive Backs:

Mike Doss (SS) - A rookie second round pick, we are expecting Mike Doss to start at some point this year, if not from the beginning. A big hitter with speed, he'll be the teams best playmaker in the secondary once he's inserted into the lineup, but he must work on his coverage skills and that may allow returning starter David Gibson to keep his job for a while. Right now, draft Doss based on his dynasty potential. His playing time as a rookie may be limited, as would his fantasy value.

David Gibson (SS) - A four year vet, David Gibson spent his first three seasons as John Lynch's backup in Tampa Bay (with Tony Dungy), seeing time in only 25 games. Starting the final nine games of 02 for the Colts, he performed decently while picking up 47 tackles, but showed no playmaking ability. This had the Colts looking for a replacement over the offseason, prompting them to bring in free-agent Rich Coady and jumping on a chance to draft Mike Doss. So far, Gibson has been able to hold off the wolves, but he will likely be replaced by Doss unless he's able to make more plays. If you happen to pick him up on your fantasy team, try to trade him once he posts the occasional 8-10 tackle game that he showed to be capable of last year.

Idrees Bashir (FS) - Like Gibson, Bashir returns as a starter, where he's averaged 64 tackles and two interceptions while starting 29 games over his two year career. A regression last year saw his tackles drop to 50, so he must improve his playmaking ability if he plans on keeping his job. Fortunately for him, he doesn't have anyone breathing down his neck, so it's unlikely that he'll be replaced. He doesn't offer much fantasy value.

Walt Harris (CB) - A seven year vet with hands of stone, Walt Harris returns to Indianapolis coming off possibly his worst season as a pro. His numbers have consistently gone down from 98 tackles as a rookie in Chicago to 44 last year, his first with the Colts, and he hasn't picked off more than two passes since 98. Possessing no fantasy value, don't be surprised to see him replaced at some point this season. Two likely candidates are Joseph Jefferson and Donald Strickland, third round picks from 02 & 03, respectively, who seem to be better fits as "Dungy" type corners. Jefferson has the size at 6'1 207 while Strickland was considered a nice playmaker at Colorado.

Nick Harper (CB) - A former Canadian Leaguer, Nick Harper has spent the last two seasons as the Colts nickel back. His playmaking ability over that time has led the Colts to give him David Macklin's starting job on the corner, although it may be short lived with Jefferson and Strickland having their sights set on starting gigs. This will likely last through training camp, if decided at all. None of the three have experience as a starter, so I wouldn't expect much fantasy wise.

David Macklin (CB) - After starting 31 games over the last two seasons, averaging 59 tackles, two interceptions and 11 passes defended, David Macklin has been replaced in the lineup by Nick Harper. Noted for the move were Harper's superior playmaking ability and athleticism, along with Macklin's penchant for drawing penalties. This makes Macklin worthless as a fantasy player, although he was pretty worthless as a starter.



Jacksonville Jaguars

Jack Del Rio comes to town as the new head coach and brings with him a new defensive scheme. Whether the personnel that he's been given fits this scheme or not is left to be seen, but here's what we do know. At linebacker, he's willing to sacrifice size for speed, coveting sideline to sideline players, and he seems to have a nice unit in that regard, especially with the signing of Mike Peterson. At cornerback, it's the opposite. He likes size on the corner, but will have to deal with a group that lacks in that area. Rookie Rashean Mathis would be a nice fit, but he'll likely take over at free safety where coverage ability is also a must, and returning starter Marlon McCree isn't a coverage safety. All in all, it looks like a much improved defensive unit with a front seven that has the potential to be great.

Defensive Linemen:

Hugh Douglas (DE) - The Jaguars signed Hugh Douglas as an unrestricted free agent hoping that he'll provide leadership and bolster a pass rush that only produced 12 sacks from defensive end in 02. At 32 years old, he's still one of the most productive ends in the league, averaging 52 tackles and 12.5 sacks over the last three seasons, but the wear & tear from being double/triple teamed on a weekly basis has taken it's toll. During the second half of last year, he was hampered by a knee injury and had to be spelled frequently, although his numbers did not suffer (28 tackles and seven sacks over the final eight games). Keeping himself in great shape and possessing a non-stop motor, Douglas will continue to find success and should end up around #15 for defensive linemen.

Tony Brackens (DE) - Considered one of the top defensive ends in the game from 99-01, Tony Brackens had the ability to fill up a boxscore like no one else. That was evident in his tremendous season of 99 where he posted 68 tackles, 12 sacks, eight forced fumbles, eight passes defended, and two interceptions. Those days seem like such a long time ago as he was forced to miss all but five games last year with a knee injury and had microfracture surgery over the offseason, leaving his career in doubt. Although he vows to make it back at some point this year, it's likely that we've seen the last of Tony Brackens. Even if he does make it back, he'd probably be nothing more than a specialist with no fantasy value.

Marco Coleman (DE) - With Brackens out, the Jaguars will fall back on 11 year vet Marco Coleman to start across from Douglas. At 33 years old, Coleman's days are coming to an end. With 61.5 sacks to his credit, Coleman has been a decent fantasy performer throughout his career, but he's no longer a consistent tackler and will have a hard time cracking the top 50, making him a borderline roster prospect at best.

Paul Spicer (DE) - A reserve in Jacksonville during his three seasons, 27 year old Paul Spicer will be called upon frequently to spell Douglas and Coleman. A lack of depth on the line may have Spicer seeing quite a bit of playing time, but he's a role player at best with no fantasy value.

John Henderson (DT) - The ninth overall pick in last years draft, John Henderson certainly lived up to the hype. He finished fourth among defensive tackles with 46 solo tackles and led them all with 7.5 sacks. The scary part is, it would've been much better had he not faded badly down the stretch. After picking up 35 tackles and five sacks during the first half of the season, he only posted 19 and two during the final eight. Whether it was conditioning, motivation, a reported inability to shed blockers or chronic lower back problems, the Jaguars are definitely concerned. Based on what he showed early last year, you've got to rank Henderson high, and I've got him as the #12 defensive lineman, #1 defensive tackle. I honestly wouldn't draft him that high though.

Marcus Stroud (DT) - As good as John Henderson was last year, Marcus Stroud wasn't far behind. The 13th overall pick in 01 started his first 16 games and posted 48 tackles with 6.5 sacks. Like Henderson, he also wore down as the season went on, picking up just 11 tackles and one sack over the final six games. Because of this, he's been very active in offseason conditioning and has shown up to camp at a slim 300 pounds (down from 322). Now, if Stroud can get over a little problem with a lack of intensity, he should have another breakout season and finds himself among the top 25 for defensive linemen, number two tackle. He's said to be the best player in the Jaguars camp right now.

Linebackers:

Mike Peterson (MLB) - A weakside linebacker during his four years in Indianapolis, Mike Peterson signed with the Jaguars as an unrestricted free agent and was immediately named their starter in the middle, continuing the trend of smaller "speed" types at middle linebacker rather than the big bruisers. Solid in all facets of the game, Peterson has great speed, is strong against both the run and in coverage, and can rush the passer when called upon. One of the top playmakers in the game, he's averaged almost nine tackles per game over the last three seasons while picking up seven interceptions along the way. Look for Peterson to flourish in his new role and finish among the top 10 linebackers with 130 tackles, a sack, and three interceptions.

Keith Mitchell (SLB) - After averaging 93 tackles, four sacks and a pick from 99-01 while with the Saints, Mitchell took his game to Houston and spent one uneventful, injury-plagued season with the Texans, totaling 28 tackles in just 11 games. Signing with the Jaguars over the offseason, he's expected to start on the strongside and hopes to pick up where he left off in New Orleans. His position dictates that he'll see a drop in stats, but he's still a proven playmaker and a strong candidate for the top 50.

Akinola Ayodele (WLB) - A third round pick in 02, Akin Ayodele is currently working with the first team defense as the starting weakside linebacker. A good combo of size and speed, he had a nice rookie season with 56 tackles, three sacks and one pick while seeing time in all 16 games, starting three. He will also see time as a rush end on third downs and will likely join Keith Mitchell in the top 50 linebackers. There is a position battle here, as either Eric Westmoreland or T. J. Slaughter could end up with Ayodele's job at some point, so keep an eye on this situation.

Eric Westmoreland (WLB) - Entering his third season, Westmoreland has been a reserve over the past two years, but he possesses the speed that Del Rio covets and may find his way into the starting lineup. The listed starter here seems to change on a weekly basis, which could spell bad news for whoever eventually wins the job. Word is right now that it's Ayodele's job to lose, leaving Westmoreland with little fantasy value. If he were to be named the starter, a ranking in the 60-70 range would make him a borderline roster prospect as a #5 linebacker.

T. J. Slaughter (WLB) - A projected starter going into last year, Slaughter dislocated his elbow, which coincided with a four game suspension (steroids and related substances), forcing him to miss the seasons first five games. He now seems to be the odd man out behind both Ayodele and Westmoreland, which leaves him with no fantasy value. Even if he were named the starter, he hasn't proven to be much of a playmaker, which would limit his value anyhow.

Defensive Backs:

Donovin Darius (SS) - Donovin Darius is a big hitter who's very strong against the run, but he lacks great coverage skills and it shows with his three year averages of 80 tackles and one interception. The problem is, over the last few seasons, he's been asked to cover too much, playing against his strength. The new scheme in Jacksonville should allow him to concentrate on what he does best, knockin' heads, which will lead to a spike in his tackles and a ranking in the top 25 for defensive backs.

Marlon McCree (FS) - A former seventh round pick and college linebacker, McCree led the Jaguars with six interceptions last year while posting 71 tackles. Unfortunately, he shares a coverage deficiency with Donovin Darius and, from his free safety spot, it's a lot harder to cover up. Unlike Darius, the new scheme relies on a solid cover safety which could force McCree to the bench. They may move McCree to strong safety, backing up Darius and providing insurance should Darius leave town next year. This depends on the development of rookie DB Rashean Mathis. As it stands, Marlon McCree isn't worth a roster spot.

Rashean Mathis (DB) - A rookie second round pick, Mathis is having an outstanding camp. With good size at 6'0 200 and the coverage ability of a cornerback, he'll see plenty of time this year as either the starting free safety, cornerback (watch out Jason Craft), or as the nickel back. Wherever he lands, Mathis looks like a very nice long term prospect who could pay off as early as 03.

Fernando Bryant (CB) - The teams best cover corner, Fernando Bryant enters his fifth season with career averages of 57 tackles and one interception. His lack of playmaking ability, along with his size (5'10 180), likely will make his days numbered as a starter. He doesn't possess much fantasy value on the outside looking in at the top 100 defensive backs.

Jason Craft (CB) - Jason Craft is in the same boat as Bryant, possessing near identical size and having a game based on speed, but he's in serious jeopardy of being replaced. A four year vet, he posted 58 tackles and three interceptions last year, his first as a full time starter, but Jack Del Rio needs to have playmakers on the outside, something that neither Craft nor Bryant have offered. Also like Bryant, Craft finds him outside of the top 100, not worthy of fantasy consideration.

Ike Charlton (CB) - If Rashean Mathis wins the starting free safety job, Charlton will likely fill the role of nickel back. A second round pick in 2000, Charlton possesses a nice combination of size, speed, and playmaking ability but has never been able to live up to his potential.



Tennessee Titans

If the defensive line is healthy, we may see a third down package that has Kevin Carter joining Albert Haynesworth at tackle with JeVon Kearse and Carlos Hall at the ends. This would give the team four pass rushers to pressure the quarterback, not only creating more sacks but helping the secondary by forcing the QB to get rid of the ball quicker. The defensive backs could definitely use the help after finishing near the bottom against the pass last year. If Kearse isn't healthy, the Titans will be forced to generate a pass rush elsewhere, likely coming from the linebackers, Keith Bulluck in particular.

Defensive Linemen:

JeVon Kearse (DE) - The Freak, JeVon Kearse averaged 49 tackles and three sacks during his first three seasons, including a rookie record of 14.5 sacks in 99. Seemingly a perfect blend of speed and aggression, he was derailed during last years season opener, breaking his foot and playing in a total of four games. After having offseason bone graft surgery, he's still feeling some pain but is practicing on a limited basis. It's very optimistic to believe that he'll be ready for the season opener. Healthy, he's a top 20 defensive lineman with top five potential. Right now, I'd stay away. A ranking in the 55-60 range means that someone else will take him before I'm willing to take the risk.

Kevin Carter (DE) - If Kevin Carter ever gets his head screwed on straight and realizes that he's supposed to be a dominant lineman, he'll be scary. Consistency has long been an issue with Carter, even while he was averaging 43 tackles and 13 sacks from 98-2000, and it caught up to him in 01 when he was held to just two sacks. He rebounded nicely last year, finishing with 42 tackles and 10 sacks, but even then he posted 11 games with one or less solo tackles. Teaming with Kearse, this duo should be one of the top in the game, but his motivation, along with Kearse's questionable health, have him falling into the 60-65 range.

Carlos Hall (DE) - Last years seventh round pick proved to be a huge surprise, posting eight sacks while filling in for the injured JeVon Kearse. Depending on Kearse's availability this year, Hall may see a lot of playing time and, with a game built around speed, could approach those sack numbers again. He doesn't have much value with a healthy Kearse around, so wait and see if we'll have a healthy Kearse around.

Albert Haynesworth (DT) - The 15th overall pick in last years draft, Albert Haynesworth developed slowly as a rookie after missing most of training camp. He performed nicely down the stretch, picking up 19 tackles and two sacks over the final six games, and has sky high expectation entering 03. His development this year will be key in the success of Tennessee's defense, but he lacks focus and motivation, showing up to camp overweight after skipping out on much of the offseason conditioning program. Look for him to land around #75 for defensive linemen, top 25 tackle. He'd make for a nice dynasty prospect if he ever got a clue.

Robaire Smith (DT) - Smith takes over for the departed John Thornton as the starter beside Albert Haynesworth at tackle. A three year vet, he's picked up seven career sacks in limited time and should find plenty of freedom as teams focus on stopping Haynesworth. He's recovering from offseason surgery on both shoulders but should be good to go. Based on opportunity alone, I'd say that he's worth a roster spot in split line leagues, but it's left to be seen how he'll respond in his first stint as a full-time starter.

Rien Long (DT) - A rookie 4th round pick who many believed had first round talent, Rien Long is said to have attitude and intensity problems. He has been impressive in camp and will likely be in the tackle rotation with Haynesworth and Smith. His only fantasy value will come if he's able to find his way into the starting lineup.

Linebackers:

Keith Bulluck (WLB) - Bulluck burst onto the scene last year, displaying superior speed and playmaking ability on his way to 127 tackles, one sack and one interception. Entering his fourth season, the former first round pick will be relied on heavily with the release of Randall Godfrey and hopes to build on last years success. The lack of sacks/picks will make him overvalued in most drafts, but he's a solid top 15 linebacker.

Peter Sirmon (SLB) - Like Bulluck, Peter Sirmon had a breakout year in 02, his first with extensive playing time. A fourth round pick in 2000, he took over as the starting strongside linebacker during week nine and posted 75 tackles, two sacks and three interceptions over the final nine games. He seems like a nice playmaker with a great nose for the ball, but the cards will be stacked against him for a couple of reasons. First is the position that he plays, strongside, which historically provides the lowest output among the linebackers. Second, his success may be attributed to the struggles of middle linebacker Randall Godfrey. If that's the case, he could see less opportunity this year even though he'll be inserted in the nickel package. That being said, I'm looking for Sirmon to buck the trend and finish as a top 10 linebacker.

Frank Chamberlin (MLB) - Chamberlin looks to be the leader in a battle to replace Randall Godfrey as the new starting middle linebacker. A three year reserve, he's pretty much an unknown, but he'll make for a nice sleeper based on what Godfrey gave us in the past...IF he's able to hold off Rocky Calmus. He's said to be a favorite among the coaches and was actually in the running for the SLB job last year, until Peter Sirmon took over.

Rocky Calmus (MLB) - Calmus may push Chamberlin for the starting job, but neither has stepped up to assume the position. A third round pick last year, he didn't play much and struggled when they tried to teach him all three LB spots. This battle should last through training camp with the winner holding top 40 potential.

Defensive Backs:

Lance Schulters (FS) - Lance Schulters is a great all around safety, when healthy, who provides support against the run, in coverage, and as an occasional blitzer. Last year, he posted his best all around season with 84 tackles, two sacks and six interceptions. He should be able to repeat that success in 03 and finds himself as a top 10 defensive back.

Tank Williams (SS) - With great size and speed, all indications point to Tank Williams being a star. A second round pick last year, he missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury, which makes it remarkable that he started all 16 games, posting 61 tackles, two sacks an a pick. He'll see an expanded role and should find his way into the top 50 for defensive backs with potential for much more.

Donnie Nickey (S) - Nickey, a rookie fifth round pick, will be the top backup at both safety spots. He possesses little value without an injury to either Schulters or Williams.

Samari Rolle (CB) - Rolle has shutdown ability and the reputation to match. He slipped a little last year, his fifth, posting only 48 tackles and two interceptions, but he's dedicated himself over the offseason and hopes for a return to elite status. He probably won't be picked on enough for much fantasy success and isn't worth a roster spot, unless your leagues splits DBs. In that case, he's a top 50 cornerback.

Andre Dyson (CB) - Samari Rolle's ability leads to Andre Dyson's success. In two NFL seasons, Dyson has averaged 60 tackles, three interceptions and 15 passes defended. Not great numbers, but good for a ranking in the top 60 DBs, top 30 cornerback. He's one of those guys that always seems to be rumored to be losing his job, so that's a concern. Offseason shoulder surgery is another concern, but he has a lock on the starting job as of right now.

Andre Woolfolk (CB) - A rookie first round pick with great all around ability, he currently holds the edge over Mike Echols for the nickel back job. Considering that the Titans play nickel on over 50% of their downs, Woolfolk will have plenty of time to prove himself, possibly straight into Dyson's starting role.

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