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IDP Analysis - AFC WEST (Part 8 of 8)

Denver Broncos

Defensive Coordinator Larry Coyer has installed an aggressive defensive scheme that will rely on more pressure from the front four and less from the linebackers and zone blitzing. The secondary will also provide a physical presence, jamming receivers at the line. The heart of this defense is their linebackers, and they've got one of the better trios in the league with Al Wilson, Ian Gold and John Mobley. Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers supporting the linebackers and this has the potential to be a very mediocre defensive team. Unless they have some players who perform above and beyond what they seem capable of, the personnel doesn't seem to fit the style of play that they're looking for.

Defensive Linemen:

Trevor Pryce (DE) - With a move from tackle to end last year, expectations were very high for Trevor Pryce. As one of the better pass rushing defensive tackles in the league, he averaged 44 tackles and 10 sacks from 98-01, numbers that he matched last year at end (46-9). While his end of year stats remain consistent, his game to game play does not, evident in his late season slump where he posted just one sack over the final six games. Without any help along the line, his numbers will be held in check while opposing offenses can focus on the Broncos only proven rusher. Once again ending in the 45 tackle/10 sack range, he's good for a top 30 finish. If Daryl Gardener comes back strong and they find a productive end on the other side, Pryce could easily find himself in the 15-20 range.

Reggie Hayward (DE) - A 3rd round pick in 01, Hayward showed nice potential as a rookie with 18 tackles and three sacks in six games. He was slated to start last year, but his progression was slow and he lost out to Kavika Pittman, spending much of the season on the bench. Once again, he's expected to start across from Trevor Pryce, but he'll have to have a solid camp and show the pass rush skills needed to free up Pryce. He's won out in a battle with Bertrand Berry for the starting job, mainly because he's better against the run, but this could go either way based on Hayward's two year history. He could surprise this year, as the weakside end is considered a sack producing position in Larry Coyer's system, but he's better left as a waiver pick up.

Bertrand Berry (DE) - A 3rd round pick by the Colts in 97, Berry failed to catch on and found himself out of football in 2000. The Broncos gave him a chance in 01 and he's shown promise as a reserve, picking up 6.5 sacks last year while starting one game. He will battle Reggie Hayward for the starting spot across from Trevor Pryce but is probably better suited as a role player. His pass rush ability would give him good value as a starter, but it's unlikely that he'll see enough snaps.

Daryl Gardener (DT) - Big and quick, Gardener has turned into a force during his seven year career as one of the better defensive tackles in the game. He's also shown the ability to be a decent fantasy producer, averaging almost four tackles per game over the last four seasons while totaling 15.5 sacks. Unfortunately, he's missed 15 games over the last three and continued that trend by injuring his wrist in a fight(at IHOP, of all places). He's expected to miss the remainder of preseason and possibly the first two regular season games, although he's targeted the season opener for his return. The injury risk is a big concern but, if healthy, he's got the ability to be a top 35 defensive lineman and a top 5 tackle.

Lional Dalton (DT) - A big body in the middle, Dalton came over from Baltimore last year and saw his first extensive action as a full-time starter. The 28 year old posted a career high of 28 tackles with one sack, numbers that make him worthless for our purposes. The fact that he hasn't separated himself from the the younger, cheaper players (Davis and Pope) has Dalton in the middle of trade/release rumors. He will likely be with another team when the season opens.

Dorsett Davis (DL) - A 3rd round draft pick last year, Davis missed much of his rookie season with a shoulder injury. With quickness, athletic ability and a mean streak, he's looked much better this year and will start inside until Daryl Gardener returns. At that point, depending on his progression, he could be in a battle for playing time with Monsanto Pope or move to defensive end.

Monsanto Pope (DT) - Entering his second season, Pope is the main beneficiary of the Dalton trade/release rumors, and is now considered a starter until Gardener returns. A 7th round pick, he showed nicely last year with four sacks and, with good speed and agility, may have a bright future. He needs to bulk up and become a better force against the run, but he's had a good training camp and will likely see plenty of playing time with Dalton on his way out.

Linebackers:

Al Wilson (MLB) - Wilson was allowed to be more aggressive last year and his numbers showed. With nice all-around skills, he posted a career high 132 tackles, tied a career high with five sacks, and finished as a top 10 linebacker. He's entering a contract year and it's speculated that this will be his last season with the Broncos. Denver may try to keep him, considering that he's their best defensive player, but they drafted Terry Pierce as insurance just in case he decides to leave. While it's hard to project him to post another season full of career highs, he should come close and end as a top 20 linebacker.

Ian Gold (WLB) - At 6'1 223, Gold makes up for a lack of size with great speed and athleticism. A 2nd round pick in 2000, he flourished on the weakside last year with 99 tackles and 6.5 sacks, both numbers good for second on the team. A 24 year old with a very bright future, he'll end up in the top 30, posting 100 tackles and five sacks, with room to grow from there.

John Mobley (SLB) - Once a fantasy stud on the weakside, Mobley had an incredible second season (97) with 132 tackles and four sacks. Now on the downswing of his career, he's averaged 90 tackles, 1.5 sacks and one interception over the last three seasons. A move to the strongside will limit his playmaking ability while a contract that outweighs his production may limit his days in Denver. He's been hampered in preseason with swelling in both knees which may open the door for rookie Terry Pierce. A healthy John Mobley has borderline fantasy value in the 65-70 range for linebackers.

Terry Pierce (LB) - A rookie second round pick, Pierce possesses a great combination of size, speed and aggressiveness. A future star, he should be the primary backup at all three linebacker spots and may make it into the starting lineup this year, depending on Mobley's health. He is also an insurance policy should Al Wilson decide to test the market next year as a free-agent, or if the Broncos decide to part ways with a declining Mobley. Pierce doesn't have much value in the upcoming season, but he's a great dynasty prospect. He has experienced some problems in coverage, so there is a chink in the armor.

Defensive Backs:

Kenoy Kennedy (SS) - A 2nd round pick in 2000, Kennedy is a big hitter who's started 31 games over the last two seasons, posting 136 tackles, two sacks and one interception. Very mediocre numbers for a strong safety, he actually failed to record either a sack or pick during the 02 season. He'll remain the starter, for now, but that could change when Lee Flowers comes back from his suspension. A move to the bench, or to free safety, could be in line if he doesn't improve his playmaking skills (this obviously depends on the progression of Brandon and Flowers). As of now, he's not worth a roster spot. That's very odd to say about a starting strong safety, but it's true.

Sam Brandon (FS) - A hard hitter with nice playmaking ability, a lot is being expected of Brandon entering his second season. As a rookie second round pick, he saw action in all 16 games, starting three, and posted 28 tackles. He showed enough in limited action to allow the Broncos to release starter Izell Reese, leaving Brandon the full-time job in 03. There's a lot of hype with Brandon right now, and it may be well deserved, but I've conservatively got him as the #70 defensive back with 79 tackles and two interceptions.

Lee Flowers (SS) - Signed as a free agent this offseason, Flowers was supposed to battle for a starting safety spot, but he's been suspended four games for the use of ephedra. A starter for the last five seasons in Pittsburgh, he's a big hitter who's shown the ability to post decent fantasy numbers with averages of 80 tackles, 2.5 sacks and one interception. He could make for a nice mid to late season pickup if he's able to find his way onto the field.

Willie Middlebrooks (S/CB) - As the 24th overall pick in 01, Middlebrooks has been bust. He's tallied up a total of 17 tackles over his first two seasons while not playing a single down on defense, fighting through inconsistency and an ankle injury. Drafted as a corner, he has the size to provide depth at safety and has looked like a different player during training camp, but he has no fantasy value.

Deltha O'Neal (CB) - Your typical big play cornerback, O'Neal has very good speed and hands, but doesn't like to get dirty. Entering his fourth season, he's been working on his tackling and must get better if he wants to quiet the whispers that he may get benched. Fantasy wise, he's a stud. He's posted 139 tackles and 14 interceptions during his two years as a starter, leaving him as a top 20 defensive back, top 5 corner.

Lenny Walls (CB) - An undrafted free agent last year, Walls is a 6'4 cornerback with nice speed who enters his second season as the starter across from Deltha O'Neal. He saw action in 13 games as a rookie, but only posted 6 tackles. That will certainly increase this year as he's going to be picked on A LOT. If he's able to hold onto the starting job, he'll be given the opportunity to post decent fantasy numbers and should be worth a roster spot as a #4-5 cornerback. Leave him alone in leagues that don't split defensive backs.

Kenny Herndon (CB) - Considered the starter until recently, he lost out to Walls and will serve as the nickel back. He's a good tackler with decent speed who could push either Walls or O'Neal for a starting spot down the road. As a starter, he'd have similar value to Walls based on the opportunity he'll get from playing across from O'Neal. Also like Walls, he doesn't have much experience, posting just eight tackles last year in 14 games.



Kansas City Chiefs

Last year, the Chiefs defense finished 32nd in yards allowed, 31st in points allowed, and couldn't provide enough support for their league leading offense (29.2 PPG) to win games. What have they done to rectify this? Quite a bit, actually, in the form of free-agents and return to health of a few key players. Their pass rush should be improved with addition of Vonnie Holliday & return of Ryan Sims, Jerome Woods return will allow the team to blitz more form the corner, and the signing of Shawn Barber gives them speed at linebacker which was missing last year. The improvement of cornerbacks Eric Warfield and William Bartee will be key in the Chiefs success, but one thing is for certain. This unit is much faster across the board and should blitz a lot. While they probably won't end up near the top, I do expect an improvement into the teens, and more wins.

Defensive Linemen:

Eric Hicks (DE) - Hicks has been a roller coaster over the past three seasons, going from 14 sacks in 2000, 3.5 in 01, and back to nine last year. The one thing that has remained steady for the five year vet are his tackle numbers, where he's posted 54 during each of the last two seasons. An improving run defender, he should benefit with a solid performer on the other side in Vonnie Holliday, something that Duane Clemons was unable to provide because of injuries and inconsistency. While 14 sacks may be a stretch, a 50 tackle 10 sack season is not, which places him in the top 25.

Vonnie Holliday (DE) - Entering his sixth season, Holliday is considered an adequate pass rusher who's very solid against the run, signified by his 01 season where he posted 72 tackles and seven sacks. Unfortunately, that was his only full season over the last three as he's had trouble staying on the field, missing ten games over that span. Knee surgery forced him to miss six games last year, but he returned with an incredible five sack game during week 16. Adequate? If healthy, he'll be a solid force at defensive end who could easily end up in the top 15 with 60 tackles and 8 sacks. To improve their pass rush along the line, we may see the Chiefs move Holliday inside on passing downs, giving them four capable rushers on the field.

Eddie Freeman (DE) - A second round pick last year as a defensive tackle, Freeman is making the move to end. He'll be the primary backup at both spots and seems to have the attributes to succeed with a nice combination of quickness and strength. He played in 15 games as a rookie without a start, but picked up four sacks. He's a quality dynasty prospect at defensive end who is a nice sleeper this year with Holliday's history of injuries.

R-Kal Truluck (DE) - A 28 vet of the Arena and Canadian Football Leagues, Truluck possesses great pass rush skills but, before this year, didn't offer much more. He's added 15 pounds over the offseason (up to 260) without losing his excellent speed and now finds himself in the mix as a third down pass rusher. An injury to either Holliday or Hicks would make Truluck a nice sleeper pick. So far, he's picked up four sacks in three preseason games.

Jimmy Wilkerson (DE) - A rookie sixth round pick, Wilkerson has impressed with both his pass rush skills and his ability against the run. Right now, he's worth nothing more than a roster spot in large dynasty leagues, but he's certainly someone to keep your eyes on.

Ryan Sims (DT) - The sixth overall selection in last years draft, Sims suffered a broken elbow during week six and found himself on the IR after making only two starts. At 6'4 315, he's only 23 years old and has great quickness and strength, making him a force against both the rush and as a pass rusher. Great potential, his development will determine much of the front fours success and expectations are very high for the upcoming season. Because of his inactivity last year, it's hard to tell what to expect in regards to fantasy production, but he's a great long term project in leagues which split linemen.

John Browning (DT) - During his six seasons, Browning has been a "tweener", playing both end and tackle. Slated as the starter next to Sims in the middle, he's a nice all-around player who's good against the run and pass, capable of 40+ tackles and 6-7 sacks. Playing primarily at tackle, those numbers may be hard to come by, but he's still good for a top 70 finish among defensive linemen, top 25 tackle.

Derrick Ransom (DT) - A five year vet, Ransom's only full season as a starter was in 2001, where he posted 54 tackles and three sacks. While those are very nice numbers from a defensive tackle, he's now relegated to a reserve role and doesn't possess much fantasy value.

Linebackers:

Mike Maslowski (MLB) - Maslowski, a 29 year old entering his fifth season, had a breakout year in 02, his first as a starter. His 126 tackles led the team while a sack and three interceptions boosted him into the top 10 linebackers. Not the best athlete, he relies more on instincts and will make the move from weakside to the middle, a position which better suits his skills. His lack of coverage skills will have him on the bench during nickel situations, making it a reach for him to match last years statistics. While he'll be drafted much higher, I don't see the value and have him in the 35-40 range.

Shawn Barber (WLB) - During his first five seasons, Shawn Barber has shown great potential with the Redskins and Eagles, but injuries have limited his production. During his two complete seasons as a starter (99 and 02) he combined for 192 tackles, two sacks and four interceptions. Barber's strengths include speed, athleticism, great range and coverage ability, making him a nice fit on the weakside in Kansas City. Because of his coverage skills, he'll be on the field a lot and, playing a position that turned Mike Maslowski into a star, should have a stellar season. While he may not match Maslowski's tackle total from last year, he'll come close, and finish right around #20.

Scott Fujita (SLB) - Fujita had a standout rookie season last year. His blend of size, speed and strength make him well-suited for the strongside spot, a position where he started nine games and posted 55 tackles with a sack. He'll be in the nickel package which should equate to more sacks, and I expect him to build on last years success with a top 50 performance.

Kawika Mitchell (MLB) - A rookie second round pick, Mitchell is a dynasty project with the skills to be an eventual three down linebacker. With the starters set and solid, he'll have a tough time cracking the lineup in 03, but next year at this time he should be a coveted player. With Shawn Barber's injured history, you never know. Store him away and watch him develop.

Quentin Caver (OLB) - Caver, an athletic second round pick from 01, has had a good camp and looks to be the primary backup on the outside. He joined Kansas City mid-season last year after a falling out with the Eagles. With 13 career tackles in 20 games, he may have value with an injury to a starter, but that's a longshot. The same goes for Larry Atkins, the Chiefs third round pick in 99 who's recorded a total of eight career tackles.

Defensive Backs:

Greg Wesley (SS) - With averages of 84 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions over his first two seasons, Greg Wesley looked like he was on the verge of stardom. A shoulder injury limited him to 13 games last year, many of which he played through pain, and, while his tackle numbers took a hit, he was still able to pick up six interceptions. He'll will be undervalued based on last years injury and should be a steal in this years draft. Look for a top 15 finish with 80 tackles, a sack or two, and five picks. He'll be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season.

Jerome Woods (FS) - Like Wesley, Woods missed significant time last year because of an injury and will be undervalued come draft time. Coming off two year averages of 84 tackles, 1.5 sacks and three interceptions, a broken leg in preseason took away his entire 02 campaign. There are concerns that he may not be 100% recovered, but when healthy he's a sure tackler with good range and coverage ability. His coverage skills allow the team to be more aggressive with blitzing from the corners, a favorite of DC Greg Robinson. A return to health will find Woods in the top 50 for defensive backs.

Shaunard Harts (SS) - Harts, a seventh round pick in 01, was forced into action last year with the injuries to Woods and Wesley and performed very well. Starting the last 11 games of the season, he recorded 73 tackles and two sacks, showing that he'll be a very nice fantasy option should Woods or Wesley miss time in 03. He may see more action in 04 if Wesley decides to leave via free agency, making him a nice dynasty prospect if you've got room to store him away.

Eric Warfield (CB) - Paid like a superstar with the skills of a Pro Bowler, Warfield's play has been a mystery over the last two seasons. He's performed well, fantasy wise, with 134 tackles and eight interceptions, but has lacks focus and gives up too many plays. He'll continue to produce as a top 40 defensive back, top 15 cornerback, but must become a better playmaker for the Chiefs to succeed.

Dexter McCleon (CB) - A six year vet, McCleon started 47 games from 99-01 with the Rams and performed well, averaging 55 tackles and five interceptions. Although he still has the skills to be a starter, his size (5'10 195) makes him better suited as a nickel back, the role he'll fill in Kansas City. If he's able to beat out William Bartee, which is quite possible, he'll have decent value as a top 50 defensive back. As a nickel back, he's not worth a roster spot.

William Bartee (CB) - Even with big tackle numbers (77 last year), Bartee needs to play better in order to keep his job. A lot of his numbers come from recoveries after his own mistakes. As a starter, he has nice size (6'1 200) and should continue to post decent tackle numbers playing across from Warfield, enough to make him a top 30 corner back, but drafting him is very risky as he could be replaced at any time.

Julian Battle (CB) - With great size and athleticism, Julian Battle is a wild card in the Chiefs defensive backfield. A rookie third round pick, he's looked good in camp and may find himself with a starting job if the current cast continues to disappoint. Probably not worth a roster spot now, but he's definitely a player watch.



Oakland Raiders

The Raiders finished #3 last year against the run, allowing an average of 90.8 yards per game. Does that surprise you? It did me. They certainly flew under the radar last year on their way to a very solid defensive performance. In 01 they were 22nd against the run (124.3). Will losing Sam Adams drop them back into mediocrity? I don't think so. The signing of Dana Stubblefield should be sufficient to solidify their interior line, along with the development of linebackers Napoleon Harris and Eric Barton. The Raiders finished middle of the pack last year with only 36 total sacks, and only 10 of those came from their defensive ends. That number has to be improved, but they'll be relying on unproven talent to get there. Tony Bryant, considered the teams top pass rusher, was released after suffering a neck injury last year and not being cleared to play. Regan Upshaw, last years other starter, left as a free-agent to Washington. Because of this, the Raiders were forced to draft heavy on the defensive line and may have come out with a couple of gems (Tyler Brayton, Sam Williams, Shurron Pierson). Although light on depth, they seem to have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, which they've been rumored to use more of this year. With Charles Woodson and Phillip Buchanon healthy, this will allow the Raiders to be more aggressive in pass coverage which should lead to more blitzing and pressure on the quarterback...and more sacks. This has the makings of a very young and talented defense, but they need some of that youth to perform (especially on the line) if they plan to improve on last years 23rd ranking against the pass.

Defensive Linemen:

Tyler Brayton (DE) - Brayton, a rookie first round pick, has had an impressive preseason. An intelligent player with a quick motor, he's opened eyes while showing ability versus both the run and pass. At the very least he'll be in the rotation at defensive end, if not starting, but growing pains will keep his production in check. He's a very nice long term project who may be worthy of a roster spot in 03 if he's able to find his way into the starting lineup.

DeLawrence Grant (DE) - As a rookie, DeLawrence Grant started 14 games and may be their best pass rushing option entering the 03 season. He was consistently mediocre last year, posting a total of 26 tackles without picking up more than three in a game, and only got to the quarterback for three sacks. An improvement is necessary if he plans on holding off the slew of rookies that the Raiders brought in, but he's currently listed as a starter and should continue to develop entering his second season. Like Brayton, Grant makes for a better dynasty prospect than an option in 03, but I would not be surprised to see him finish in the 50-60 range for defensive linemen.

Trace Armstrong (DE) - Coming off of a torn Achilles' in 01, Armstrong was a reserve over the first nine games last year and picked up a total of 8 tackles without a sack. When Tony Bryant went down with a neck injury, he was forced into the starting lineup and tallied 4 sacks down the stretch, including a three sack performance in week 16. At 37 years old, Armstrong is #3 among active sackers with 103 (Bruce Smith 195, John Randle 132) but is coming off a torn groin that may not be 100% when the season opens. If healthy, he provides value as a situational pass rusher but his lack of tackles should keep him off of a fantasy roster.

Kenyon Coleman (DE) - Coleman has had a very nice offseason, looking dominant at times, and is currently leading the battle to start across from Grant. A fifth round pick last year, he showed up to camp at 270 pounds (18 lighter than last year) and has shown impressive speed and pass rushing ability, while not losing his strength. Inactive for all but one game as a rookie, Coleman has little value until we see what he's capable of.

Sam Williams (DE) - A rookie 3rd round pick, Williams was a college linebacker that the Raiders had planned on converting to defensive end from day one. He's a project with a very nice blend of size, strength and speed (clocked at 4.57) who the team has considered the gem of their draft class. Oakland's shaky situation at end should lead to Williams getting an extended look for playing time, but don't expect much from this rookie. He's a very nice dynasty prospect who could be a serious force down the line.

Rod Coleman (DT) - The star of the Raiders defensive line last year, Coleman recorded 11 sacks while starting only two games. This offseason, there was speculation that he'd become a starter with Sam Adams leaving town, but the signing of Dana Stubblefield put that to rest. He has nice speed and strength, but is a bit light at 285 pounds and is better suited as a situational rusher from his tackle position, a role that he's filled for the last three season and will likely fill in 04, baring an injury to Parrella or Stubblefield. Also like last year, he should produce a nice sack total, near double digits, and land in the top 15 for defensive tackles, top 50 overall lineman.

John Parrella (DT) - A 10 year vet, John Parrella was signed last season to solidify the middle of their defensive lines. A strong run stuffer, he usually takes on two blockers which frees up the linebackers to make plays. Once a fantasy force, he averaged 62 tackles and five sacks from 99-01 with the Chargers. If last year is any indication, he's no longer worthy of fantasy consideration (44 tackles and one sack), but he may edge his way into the top 70 or so, making him an option in very large leagues. As a top 25 defensive tackle, he holds more value if your league splits linemen.

Dana Stubblefield (DT) - If you look up "contract year" in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of Dana Stubblefield with his 1997 season as the definition. The Defensive Player of the Year in 97, Stubbs posted totals of 15 sacks and 61 tackles. After signing a big free-agent contract with Washington during that offseason, he's gone on to pick up a total of 14 sacks while averaging 37 tackles since. Entering his 11th season, he's still considered a valuable asset with versatility, able to stop the run and provide an interior pass rush. Signing with Oakland over this offseason after playing with the 49ers over the past two, he'll start alongside John Parrella at tackle. For the Raiders, he'll provide a decent cushion against the loss of Sam Adams, but fantasy wise he is worthless.

Linebackers:

Eric Barton (WLB) - Spending his first three seasons toiling as a reserve (albeit highly talented reserve), Barton started a total of four games while picking up 52 tackles. The retirement of William Thomas opened up a spot for Barton to start in 02 and he took full advantage of the situation. Breakout (with a capital B). 124 tackles, six sacks and two interceptions landed him in the top ten and he's now entrenched as one of the top all-around linebackers in the game. I see two factors that may have Barton dip this year. The loss of Sam Adams, one of the premier space eaters in the game, and the development of middle linebacker Napoleon Harris. I've projected him with close to a 10% drop in tackles based on these factors, but his playmaking ability will keep him in the top 20 linebackers.

Napoleon Harris (MLB) - Last years first round selection, Harris started 13 games as a rookie after the team decided to release veteran Greg Biekert during training camp, and he performed OK. He didn't show great playmaking skills, posting only 0.5 sack and two pass defended without an interception, but he should excel in his second season with an expanded role which will include nickel duties. I'm looking for a top 40 finish with 100+ tackles and four sacks/picks. Obviously, he's a great dynasty prospect who should be a staple in the Raiders defense for many years to some.

Bill Romanowski (SLB) - Somehow, Romo still brings it at 37 years old. Entering his 16th season, Romanowski keeps himself in great shape and has maintained averages of 75 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and two interceptions over the past five years while not missing a start during his entire career (starting 207 of last 208). With Barton and Harris taking over as the defensive stars, Romanowski will likely see a decreased role and may have trouble reaching those averages. He finds himself in the 90-100 range, not worth a roster spot unless the youngsters struggle or get hurt.

Travian Smith (LB) - A five year vet, Smith is the only reserve linebacker on the Raiders roster with any experience and will be the top backup at all three positions. With 7.5 sacks during the last two seasons, Smith possesses impressive speed and strength and may surprise if forced into action for an extended period.

Defensive Backs:

Rod Woodson (FS) - One of the leagues all-time greats, Rod Woodson enters his 17th season and is still a top 10 defensive back. While he doesn't get to the quarterback like he did as a cornerback in Pittsburgh (11 sacks from 92-94), he's a great playmaker who's averaged 78 tackles, almost six interceptions and 14 passes defended over the past five seasons. He actually bettered all three of those totals last year (82/8/16) and should come close again this year. A teacher on the field, his role in the development of Charles Woodson, Phillip Buchanon and Derrick Gibson may be more important than his actual play on the field.

Derrick Gibson (SS) - Did I say development of Derrick Gibson? We're still waiting. A first round pick in 01, Gibson has the ability on paper to be a star, but he has not been able to take control of the starting job even though he's been given every opportunity. He picked up 64 tackles last year while starting 11 games, but showed no playmaking skills at all and finds himself in a familiar battle with Anthony Dorsett. Neither should excite you and neither is worth more than a watchful eye at this point.

Anthony Dorsett (SS) - Al Davis loves speed, and that's the only reason that I can think of for Dorsett still being a Raider. Well, that and the fact that Gibson has been less than impressive. Remember the long Shannon Sharpe touchdown that knocked the Raiders out of the AFC Championship in 01? That was Dorsett's fault (from a fans eye), a starter at the time. Ever since then, he's been an unwanted man in the Bay Area. The good news is that he's outplayed Gibson during training camp and may find himself once again in the starting lineup. But like I said above, keep an eye on this situation without wasting a roster spot.

Charles Woodson (CB) - Injuries over the past two seasons have taken away possibly the best all-around corner in the game. Entering his sixth season, the former #4 overall pick (98) and Heisman Trophy winner is said to be healthy, but it may not matter. During his first three seasons, Woodson averaged 68 tackles and 17 passes defended while picking up a total of 10 interceptions. With basically a rookie (Phillip Buchanon) or a veteran journeyman (Terrance Shaw) starting on the other side, Woodson will not be tested very often. Solid in run support and good off the edge as a blitzer, Woodson can fill up a boxscore in many ways, but he's on the wrong side of the top 50 DBs and shouldn't be relied on as an every week starter. As a top 30 cornerback, he holds decent value if your league splits defensive backs.

Terrance Shaw (CB) - At 30 years old, Shaw is a solid competitor with nice size who's had an impressive camp. With Phillip Buchanon ailing, he's solidified his spot as a starter across from Woodson and may feel the benefits of Woodson's talent. It still isn't enough for him to make it onto a roster.

Phillip Buchanon (CB) - Last years #1 draft pick, a broken wrist limited him to six games (two starts) as a rookie. Before he went down with the wrist injury, we got a glimpse of a player with a very bright future. Possibly one of the leagues best punt returners, Buchanon is big-play gambler with shutdown potential, although he could be picked on with his limited experience and Charles Woodson in the same backfield. The best word that I've seen used to describe Buchanon is "thoroughbred". A hamstring injury has kept him out of camp, allowing Terrance Shaw to work with the first unit, and his slight stature (5'10 185) makes him a good fit for the slot, where he'll be protected from the bigger receivers in the league (if he needs it). Seemingly a can't miss future star, Buchanon has to show that he can avoid injuries and stay on the field before he's worth much to the fantasy world. Even then, he may wind up being too good for our purposes. If healthy this year, he's on the edge of the top 30 for corners but doesn't hold much value as a defensive back in the 70-75 range.

Nnamdi Asomugha (CB) - Yet another first round pick in the Raiders secondary, Asomugha was drafted this year on potential more than anything. Playing safety in college until his senior season, he has a great blend of size, speed and strength. Currently nursing a shoulder injury, we haven't gotten to see a lot. With his size (6'2 215) there's always the possibility that he could return to safety, especially with Oakland's recent trouble at strong safety. Best case this year, he'll see time in nickel packages while his long term value is a complete mystery at this point.



San Diego Chargers

Thanks to Footballguy Maurile Tremblay for his contributions with the San Diego Chargers

In 02, San Diego was one of the surprise fantasy defenses of the year over the first month, but things fell apart as they began to give away a ton of points. After giving up 9.5 points per game over the first four, they failed to hold another opponent under 10 points for the remainder of the season (averaging 27.4 points allowed down the stretch). The team lacked speed in the secondary, and it showed. Defensive stalwarts Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison are gone, but the team feels that they have upgraded the unit with additional speed coming from four rookie members in the secondary expected to see extensive action. Inexperienced, it will take them time to gel, but their potential is undoubted. Marty Shottenheimer wants to run an aggressive scheme with more man coverage than they we allowed use in 02. They seem to have the athletes needed to get the job done. Improvement also must be made along the defensive line. After struggling through injuries, Marcellus Wiley must provide more than the six sacks of a year ago. In 2001, Wiley and fellow starter RayLee Johnson combined for 22.5 sacks. Last year that number fell to 12.5. With Adrian Dingle in the mix, this unit should return to form and, with their additions in the secondary, expect much better results in both sacks and yards allowed.

Defensive Linemen:

Marcellus Wiley (DE) - With 113 tackles and 23.5 sacks over the 00-01 seasons, Wiley was an emerging superstar. That is, until injuries caught up with him last year, limiting him to 36 tackles and six sacks. Entering his seventh season, he looks healthy and poised to rebound. With the injuries behind him, I'm looking for a top 20 finish with 50 tackles and 10.5 sacks. He actually has the ability to dwarf these numbers, but his recent injured history leaves me on the conservative side.

RayLee Johnson (DE) - Over the last three seasons, RayLee Johnson has started 48 games while averaging 40 tackles and nine sacks. At 33 years old, he still provides a solid option at end for the Chargers against both the run and as a pass rusher, but his days as a three down lineman are probably over. He will likely be replaced by Adrian Dingle on third downs, limiting his fantasy value into the 85-90 range for defensive linemen. He won't offer much at this point in his career.

Adrian Dingle (DE) - Dingle, a reserve end in San Diego for the past three seasons, has had a good camp and may push RayLee Johnson for the starting spot across from Wiley. If nothing else, he'll find himself on the field for nickel rush duties and, at 26 years old, looks like a probable starter entering the 04 season. As a pass rush specialist, he'll have limited fantasy value.

Jason Fisk (DT) - Fisk has been a somewhat productive defensive tackle during his career with four year averages of 42 tackles and almost three sacks. Entering his eighth season, he's not a fantasy factor, but uses his quickness and high energy to provide solid support against the run.

Jamal Williams (DT) - With a great combination of size, strength & quickness, Williams has the makings of a star. He showed this potential back in 2000 with a 53 tackle 9 stuff campaign. Unfortunately, he can't stay healthy, missing most of 01 with a knee injury and the final four games of 02 with a dislocated ankle. His health in crucial in the Chargers attempt to stop the run. During the four games that he missed last year, they gave up 150+ yards rushing in three. He's healthy now, but it may not last long, and his lack of a pass rush makes him worthless for fantasy purposes.

Leonardo Carson (DT) - Carson, a three year vet, has given us decent production of the last two seasons with 66 tackles and 6.5 sacks in 32 games (19 starts). He was expected to be in the defensive tackle rotation but has recently been arrested on burglary and kidnapping charges. Not his first run-in with the law, his future in San Diego may be in doubt, leaving the Chargers thin on the interior.

Linebackers:

Donnie Edwards (WLB) - One of the games elite linebackers, Donnie Edwards brought his versatility to San Diego last year and posted what may have been his finest all-around year with 129 tackles, five interceptions and 11 passes defended. Entering his eighth season, he'll make the move from middle linebacker to the weakside, a position which will showcase his skills and possibly allow him to improve on last years numbers. He hasn't missed a game in four seasons, averaging 129 tackles, 1.5 sacks and three interceptions, and should have no problem this year extending his streak of six consecutive 100+ tackle campaigns. I see him as the #3 overall linebacker, leading the second tier behind Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis.

Zeke Moreno (MLB) - At one point, there was a battle for the starting middle linebacker job between Zeke Moreno, Carlos Polk and rookie Matt Wilhelm. Moreno has had an outstanding preseason and seems to have run away from the competition. A fifth round pick in 01, Moreno started three games last year in place of an injured Junior Seau and posted 26 tackles with an interception. In the middle for the first time in his career, he'll look to build on last years success with excellent instincts and a great nose for the ball, which counteracts his limited speed. A very nice prospect for the upcoming season, I see him finishing as a top 50 linebacker with 105 tackles, a sack and two picks. A true sleeper, grab him late in your draft and watch him perform as a solid starter.

Ben Leber (SLB) - Thrown into the fire, Leber had an up and down rookie campaign which saw him post starter quality numbers in only three of 16 games. With season totals of 52 tackles and five sacks, he posted 21 tackles and four of those sacks in the three games and needs to become more consistent. A third round pick last year, he was limited to run downs but should see time as a nickel linebacker in 03. From the strongside, he'll have trouble reaching elite type numbers, but should develop during his second season into a nice long term prospect. I don't see him having much value for the upcoming season, likely falling in the 80-90 range for linebackers.

Matt Wilhelm and Carlos Polk (LB) - Once considered options as the starter in the middle, Wilhelm and Polk will now provide quality depth and insurance against injuries. At 6'4 245, Wilhelm is a rookie fourth round pick with very nice size that should be the backup in the middle. Polk, who's physical and aggressive play has not shown up during camp, has fallen down the chart.

Defensive Backs:

Quentin Jammer (CB) - Last years 5th overall pick, Jammer has the makings of a stud. A physical cornerback with great speed, Jammer has the ability to jam receivers at the line and then beat them down the field, a rare double quality in todays game. The word is out, and it's unlikely that he'll will be tested often enough to produce big interception numbers, but he's a strong tackler who will find his way into the top 35 for defensive backs, number 11 cornerback.

Sammy Davis (CB) - This years first round pick, #30 overall, Davis is currently behind Tay Cody in the race to start across from Quentin Jammer. Considered a starting quality corner, it won't be long before he finds himself in the lineup, but for now he'll fill the nickel back role.

Drayton Florence (CB) - Florence is a rookie second round pick who has had a very nice camp. A bit raw, he's fast and physical with good ball skills, making him a good fit in the Chargers scheme who could start at some point. He may push the starter as early as 03, but will likely be a nickel/dime back for the time being, as well as a backup free-safety.

Tay Cody (CB) - Everything seems to be against Tay Cody, except for the fact that he's still the starter in San Diego. He lacks size and speed, doesn't fit well within the system, and missed the final 12 games of last year with a foot injury. He is a good tackler who provides stability in the Chargers secondary, but he's just as likely to be on his way out of San Diego as he is to start for 16 games. This trio of cornerbacks holds little value until the situation washes out a bit.

Kwamie Lassiter (FS) - An eight year vet, Lassiters career has been a roller coaster ride. Considered a player who's stats exceed his actual talent, he's had two seasons with 8+ interceptions while picking up two or less during the other six. A good tackler with range, he's averaged 99 tackles over the past four seasons, and hasn't missed a game in six years. Those numbers will be a stretch as he's pushed for the starting job and I don't see him cracking the top 50.

Vernon Fox (SS) - Currently listed as the starting strong safety, Fox will be lucky to leave camp with a roster spot. Terrence Kiel and Hanik Milligan are the future at safety in San Diego while Fox is just keeping the spot warm until the youngsters are ready to step in and assume their roles.

Terrence Kiel (S) - A rookie second round pick, Kiel is a solid tackler with decent speed who was originally projected as a starter. Currently recovering from a broken fibula and gun shot wounds from an attempted carjacking, he will eventually push Vernon Fox for the starting strong safety job. Still a nice prospect, his value for the upcoming season certainly took a hit as he'll probably be watching from the sidelines when the season opens.

Hanik Milligan (S) - A rookie sixth round pick, Milligan has been very impressive in camp and, like Kiel, will challenge Fox and Kwamie Lasstiter for a starting safety job. He has the ability to play both safety spots and his emergence possibly led to the Chargers release of Ryan McNiel. Because of inexperience and ongoing position battles, it's difficult to rank the San Diego safeties at this point. From what they've shown up to this point, it looks like Milligan and Kiel are very nice dynasty prospects who could perform well if given the opportunity in 03.

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