We've all felt it before, that feeling of nausea that accompanies a close loss in an important game. Fantasy football is a came that can be decided by 1 or 2 points. Anyone who has played fantasy football for any length of time has most likely lost a game, multiple games, or even an entire season by only a few points. Having any advantage could pay big dividends when it comes to avoiding these losses. Paying attention to a potential advantage, an advantage that most fantasy football players tend to ignore, can help you win. That undervalued advantage to help you win some close games is………..The Kicker.

The strategy of many fantasy football players when it comes to kickers is to wait until the end of the draft, and grab one of the many of the middle of the pack kickers that will be available in one of the last couple of rounds. While stocking up on the important positions (RB, QB, WR) is a wise move, doing it at the expense of a productive kicker can often come back to bite you over the course of a season.

While a quality kicker may not score a substantial amount of points more than a kicker further down your rankings, he can still come in handy nonetheless. The "Kicker Difference" of a kicker can help you determine who will help you win close games. The Kicker Difference is the difference between the number of times a kicker will help you win a close game (by scoring 10 or more points) and the number of times a kicker will probably help you lose a close game (by scoring 3 or less points).

The top kicker in the league last year, Jay Feely, only outscored the eighteenth rated kicker, Jason Hanson, by 38 total points last year or about 2.4 points per week. While that may not sound like much it is how the Kicker Difference looks for top rated kickers vs. mediocre kickers that sets the top rated kickers apart. The top six kickers, taking only actual NFL stats into account (which means no bonuses for long field goals or deductions for misses) were as follows:

Kickers thirteen - eighteen (a fair representation of kickers who probably got some playing time in a 12 team league) based on actual NFL stats, were as follows:

On average, the 27 kickers with 14 or more games played last year scored somewhere between 4-9 points in 9 games each. On average, those same kickers will score outside of the 4-9 point window an average of 7 (actually 6.78 = 183 Kicker Difference eligible games / 27 kickers) games each per year. It is in these other 7 games where you get your advantage. Here is an example of where having a consistently good kicker can come in handy:

Suppose, not counting the kickers, the score of your game for the week is tied. One team has Jay Feely going as their kicker, with his Kicker Difference of +7. Last year, Feely scored 10 or more points in 43.75% of his games. He scored 3 points or less in 0% of his games. The other team has Jason Hanson going for them. Last year Hanson scored 10 or more points in 18.75% of his games, but also scored 3 or less in 31.25% of his games. OK, it's time for your pop quiz. Which of these two kickers would give their team the better chance to win this tie game? You're correct. Jay Feely most likely would help the team he is on more than Jason Hanson would. A kicker with a high KD should help you win many close games that you are in. A kicker with a low KD, like Jason Hanson with his Kicker Difference of -2 is probably going to cost you this type of close game. While this system may not always work, as anyone could outscore anyone else on a given day, playing the percentages helps. Think of it as a baseball manager would. The score is tied in the ninth, there are two outs, and you need to send up a pinch hitter. You have two right handed batters as your only options on the bench. Player A has a .325 average, with 20 home runs Player B has a .210 average with 2 home runs While it is conceivable that Player B could get the winning hit and Player A could strike out, who is the manager going to go with? He will go with Player A because it is MORE LIKELY that Player A will provide the desired result. In this case, Jay Feely would be MORE LIKELY to produce a point total to help you win a close game, making him a better choice.

Looking at the Kicker Difference shows that the top six kickers would give you a decided advantage in close games over kickers rated thirteenth to eighteenth. During a fantasy football season, when the difference between 1st and 4th place is often a game or two, having a kicker with a high KD is an advantage you want to have.

Finding these kickers seems relatively easy. Look at the top scoring offenses in the league, and on them, you will find the top kickers who will usually have the higher Kicker Difference. Out of the top six kickers, five of them were on top six scoring offenses:

The kicker from the top scoring offense in 2002 was Morton Andersen. He missed the top 6 by 11 points, while only playing in 14 games. His Kicker Difference was +6.

For the thirteenth through eighteenth rated kickers, they came from scoring offenses well below the top six.

In looking at all of the kickers who played in 14 or more games last year, here are the statistics (27 kickers in all):

• KD of 1 or above - 13
• KD of -1 or below - 12
• KD of 0 - 2

• KD of 3 or above - 8
• KD of -3 or below - 6

• KD of 5 or more (big advantage) - 3 (Feely, M. Gramatica, M. Andersen)
• KD of -5 or more (big disadvantage) - 4 (Cundiff, K. Brown, Rackers, B. Gramatica)

• KD of 10 or more - 0
• KD of -10 or more - 1 (Billy Cundiff)

If you can find a reliable kicker, secure in his job, from a high scoring offense, you most likely will have a kicker that will give you a good KD. The difficulty in implementing this strategy comes in pulling the trigger on one of these kickers during your draft. While you will have some busts such as Vanderjagt, and Jeff Wilkins, who were both highly drafted kickers last year, the top six scoring kickers were all usually highly drafted kickers as well.

It seems to me that in a game often decided by 3 points or less, and a season often decided by 1 or 2 wins, I would rather go to battle with a kicker that will help my team win close games, as opposed to with a kicker that will assist in losing close ones. Believe me, I am not a proponent of starting the run on kickers, nor would I ever suggest taking a kicker while a high quality position player, who would be a top reserve on your team is on the board. I do suggest that you pay attention to when the kickers start going off the board in your draft (usually within the last 3 or 4 rounds of the draft), and have your own rankings that you can use to get a good one. Selecting a choice kicker in round 14 instead of whoever is left in round 16 can mean the difference between a high quality kicker and a one that is barely better than an empty roster spot. It may be wise if during the preseason, while everyone else is going over who they are going to take with their first round pick for the thousandth time, you take a moment and develop a plan for getting a good kicker. It may pay off handsomely with an extra victory or two during the season. That can be the difference between being a fantasy champion and a runner up.