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David Dodds - From The Gut
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Posted 8/30 by David Dodds - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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 As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me publish projections, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in a short list of guys I wanted to nab. Yes we are talking pre-VBD days where I had a Cheatsheet and about 20 players highlighted that I positively wanted on my team. I did not care that every player had value. I wanted these guys. Yes I am a VBD convert and I take the projections I create at Footballguys.com very seriously, but...
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head. And as Joe and I have set out to do all year long, we want you to know what we know. So here goes...
The Washington Redskins added two quality guards, a top WR in Laveranues Coles, a move to RBs that can catch, an explosive return man in Chad Morton. We know that the Fun-N-Gun is all about passing. So why no love for Patrick Ramsey? The critics cite the benchings by Spurrier. I would counter with Spurrier had Weurffel and Matthews as his QBs last year. Plus he never benched Ramsey. This year he has Weurffel and Rob Johnson as backups. Does anyone really think Ramsey will get benched for those two players? Despite a terrible OL, a RB that did not suit the offensive philosophy because he rarely caught the ball, terrible QBs and lame WRs outside of Rod Gardner, this team still finished 12th in pass attempts last year. Washington also tied for 11th with 24 passing TDs. That to me is a miracle with the players they had last season. Ramsey is getting drafted with an ADP of 136. We have him ranked as the 80th best player and are being conservative. This guy will likely be on every one of my fantasy teams this year.
Johnnie Morton clearly burned everyone that drafted him last year. He was lost in the new offense and it showed. He went to the wrong spots, had no timing with Trent Green and plain and simple sucked last season. Ask him. He will tell you the same and not make excuses. Ask Dick Vermeil. He will tell you that too. But that was last year. After studying the playbook hard in the offseason, Morton has shown that he is ready to be productive in the Kansas City passing game. Let's not forget that the Chiefs were 1st in yards per attempt last season, tied for third with 27 passing TDs and finished 12th in passing yards despite having the best running back (Priest Holmes) for most of the season. Scout the different websites. They all have Johnnie Morton as the starter. Most have Kennison as the #2 and Boerigter at number 3. But a quick glance on where these guys are being drafted all point to targetting Morton as the best value pick by far.
Johnnie Morton (FBG rank 103rd overall, ADP 163)
Eddie Kennison (FBG rank 175 overall, ADP 179)
Marc Boerigter (FBG rank 165 overall, ADP 124)
Yes Boerigter should get some TD looks just like Joe Jurevicius will. In fact I see both of these players as very similar. They are on the field as their team's approach the endzone. But I think Morton will be on the field a lot more. This situation feels like the steal of the draft to me.
Onterrio Smith could be HUGE this season. The Minesota offensive line is dominant so any back running behind it should be extremely productive. Let's take a step back from all of the coachspeak and analyze things. Onterrio Smith was very high on the Vikings Draft board. He slid to the 4th round because of off-the-field issues. Everyone agrees that Smith isn't/wasn't 4th round RB talent. And for the Vikings (with huge defensive problems last season) to even draft him shows us all that they wanted another explosive back to pair with Bennett.
Here is my current take on things:
On Moe Williams starting week 1: Tice is trying to show Smith and the rest of the team that there is order and structure in the clubhouse. If you just hand the job to Smith, the veterans are going to be bummed. And you might need those guys should Smith bust. Look for Williams to start week 1 (with Chapman injured), but Smith will get a lot of carries to prove he should be the guy. It is much easier to promote someone after they have shown it on the field.
On Moe Williams being the goal line back: I started in this camp and still think it could be the case, but prior to Bennett getting hurt there was talk Bennett would carry at the goal line. Add to that the fact that Smith has had preseason short yardage carries tells me this isn't settled at all.
On Bennett returning: Why would the Vikings risk it with a young talented RB? He is on the PUP now to buy some time, but I don't think the team is going to risk further injury to Bennett this season.
This situation is very similar to what was going on in Denver last year. Everyone knew that Portis was the best back. And the debate only happened when he fumbled three times in a preseason game. Tice and his coaches know that Smith will give them their best chance to win this year. RB talent always rises to the top. I expect Onterrio Smith (if he plays good in week 1) will be starting fully by week 3. Don't let all of the coachspeak
Baltimore's Defense is getting drafted nearly 50 spots later (ADP 96) than Tampa Bay's (ADP 50) unit. I think Baltimore could easily be the most dominate defensive unit this season.
If Aaron Elling can hold onto the hicking job all season, he will represent great value. Don't count on him as your number one kicker yet, but he could prove to be very valuable.
Has anyone heard a single negative comment on Ashley Lelie? Everyone raves about this kid and about the separation he gets from defenders. They were saying these things last year too. The team did not play him much as a rookie, but I remember a few plays where my jaw was on the ground. He has a few gears that most people do not have. Instead of thinking of him as a player trying to beat out Ed McCaffrey for a starting spot, you might want to consider that he could easily be the go to guy in Denver by season's end. He is that good.
Derrius Thompson has outplayed Chris Chambers this preseason. At an ADP of 162 he is very undervalued and someone that could have huge upside.
I will not be drafting Shaun Alexander in any drafts this year. He easily could be worth his draft position, but the holdout of OT Walter Jones sounds nasty to me. Add to that the fact that Maurice Morris is probably the most talented backup in the NFL and I think Alexander is a very risky selection. Holmgren was super close last year to going with Morris and then he got dinged. Alexander responded with 5 TDs in a half and the rest is history. Maurice Morris is also a better practice player than Shaun Alexander and that has surfaced a few times from the Seattle coaches. Shaun could be all world again this year, but he won't be on my teams.
With a slew of inexperienced WRs in Arizona, Freddie Jones is a great bargain in drafts this year. He is being selected out of the top 200 in a lot of drafts. I think he has a good chance to finish as a Top 10 TE.
With no legitimate number two WR in Chicago, look for TE Desmond Clark to be a major factor in the passing game. He is currently being drafted in the last few rounds of a draft.
Quality QBs can be had very late this year. Because of this, I don't think it is worth even looking at QBs in the first 5-6 rounds. Look to target Brett Favre, Steve McNair, Jeff Garcia, Trent Green, Jake Plummer, Patrick Ramsey, Brad Johnson, Tommy Maddox and Matt Hasselbeck after the big names are gone. Coupled with a stable of good RBs and WRs these QBs should easily get the numbers needed to have a great fantasy team.
Don't be surprised when Darrell Jackson ends the year with better stats than Koren Robinson. Both of these WRs are young and talented, but Robinson is now going to draw the harder coverage. Rod Gardner is in a very similar situation going from a team's #1 WR to a team's #2. He also could have a huge year.
Neither Muhsin Muhammad (ADP 116) nor Steve Smith (ADP greater than 200) are getting any love in fantasy drafts this year despite firm grips on the #1 and #2 WR spots in Carolina. Both represent great value.
Ok, my brain feels better for releasing all of that. Best of luck everyone in your coming drafts.
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