The Perfect Draft - Revisited
August 22nd, 2002


Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not subscribe to Footballguys.com to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. They all come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD) and we will expound on them as we go through this.

1. All players have value. Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their value and you will build a winning team.

2. Understand what the "average" guy thinks. It's this opinion that allows one to maximize draft value round after round.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...always avoid players after ACL injuries...avoid anyone over 30...refuse to ever draft a kicker before the last 3 rounds...always take RBs with your first two picks...on and on....then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succomb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparitive value. Let this be our guide. I am not going to rehash Joe Bryant's excellent article as most are familiar with it. But suffice it to say it all starts with projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200 lists. The good news is we have done that work for you. Top 200 List Here. Our popular VBD App can also do this for you and provide you with a customized list.

Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I looked for were players that Footballguys ranked significantly better than where they were being drafted. For average draft position, I used a list generated from 95 online drafts that took place after 8/15/02. To be ranked, the player or defense had to show up in at least 10 drafts. This list can be at seen at My Fantasy League. A similar list is available from Antsports.com. The positional analysis tracks to our Top 200 list just released and can be seen best by looking at the Top 200 sorted by position.

This article assumes a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK.

Quarterbacks:

Looking down the list of QBs and value shows up later on the list. The first few QBs either represent no value or have negative value. They are generally drafted before they should be. And this makes sense. The QB position scores the most points. So fantasy players want a good one. But since most leagues only require 1 starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first 5-6 are gone. Unless you can get exceptional value on these first few QBs (Warner, Culpepper, Garcia, Manning, McNabb and even Favre), we generally suggest waiting.

We suggest you target the following QBs:

  • Aaron Brooks in the 3rd round or later.

  • Rich Gannon in the 4th round or later.

  • Trent Green in the late 5th round or later.

Additionally we suggest you look to target Jake Plummer, Mark Brunell, Kerry Collins and Jay Fiedler around the 9th round. All are clear starters (with no competition) and will have exceptional value. If you somehow miss out on a stud or good value in the list above, you can still have a great draft by getting multiple QBs and playing matchups each week.

Again, the general strategy is to wait at QB unless exceptional value presents itself earlier. No need to panic at this position and just let the draft come to you. There is great value to be had by waiting.

Running Backs:

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is there simply aren't enough of them to go around. Every owner wants 3-4 quality backs. That equates to 36-48 backs needed to adequately cover bye weeks and exploit matchups. Well folks, there are not that many players that will score consistently for your fantasy roster.

This is the reason many successful owners will simply take RBs with their first two picks regardless of who else is there. We are not advocating blindly taking RBs over people like Warner, Moss, Owens, etc. But we are suggesting you get good to great value on non-RB players if you go that direction. We rank Moss at number 7 overall. But truth is you may actually end up with a better roster if you avoid him at pick 8 and draft the highest RB available.

Why is this you ask? Because even though you may "overpay" for a RB in the first or second round, the price for RBs generally increases significantly. With high demand and no supply, marginal backs will be drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds. You want to be ahead of the runs and grab quality even if it represents minimal value.

Here are the only non- RB players I would even consider other than a RB in the first two rounds (24 picks):

  • Warner at 8 overall or later.

  • Randy Moss at 10 overall or later.

  • Terrell Owens at 12 overall or later

  • Marvin Harrison at 16 overall or later.
  • Daunte Culpepper at 18 overall or later.

  • Jeff Garcia at 21 overall or later.

There is a good chance that none of these players will be available at these spots. That is OK, take your two RB studs and position yourself for a strong draft the rest of the way. The reason you need to get exceptional value if you don't take running backs with your first two picks is because you will likely overpay for mediocre RBs later.

Besides taking quality RBs early, we also like these backs in the following rounds:

  • Tiki Barber in the 4th round or later.

  • Michael Pittman in the mid-4th round or higher

  • Travis Henry in the 5th round or later.

  • Thomas Jones in the 5th round or later.

  • Charlie Garner in the 6th round or later.

  • James Stewart in the 6th round or later.

  • TJ Duckett in the 7th round or later.

  • Jamel White in the 10th round or later.

  • Jonathan Wells in the 11th round or later.

  • Amos Zereoue in the 11th round or later.

Depending on what RBs you end up with in the first two rounds, you should strongly consider picking up the backup much later to handcuff that position.

Some additional RB strategies involve traditionally strong running teams that potentially have injury risk/RBBC situations. SF with Hearst and Barlow could yield great value if you get them both. So could Jacksonville's running attack with Fred Taylor and Stacey Mack.

Wide Receivers:

There almost always is great value at wide receiver late in a draft and this year is no exception. But you will need a few inexpensive stars for any of that late round value to be worthwhile.

As we discussed earlier, unless you get exceptional value on the big 3 (Moss, Owens and Harrison), you should pass on these players. The one with the most value of these three is likely the one taken third as experts disagree as to the exact order on how these should be ranked. Assuming you miss the big three and draft RB in the first two rounds, here are the WRs I believe will have good to great value:

  • Plaxico Burress in the 5th round or later.

  • Rod Gardner in the 6th round or later.

  • Travis Taylor in the 9th round or later.

  • Joey Galloway in the 9th round or later.

  • Peter Warrick in the mid-9th round or later.

  • Koren Robinson in the mid-9th round or later.

  • Az-Zahir Hakim in the 11th round or later.

  • Michael Westbrook in the 13th round or later.

  • Bobby Shaw in the 13th round or later.

  • Todd Pinkston in the 13th round or later.

  • Reggie Wayne in the 13th round or later.

  • Tim Dwight in the 14th round or later.

  • Steve Smith in the 14th round or later.

  • Quincy Morgan in the 15th round or later.
And as always some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targetted bargain list. So in recap, get one core WR outside of the top 3 and wait for value to emerge. It always does.

Tight Ends:

All the value is towards the top of the draft, but we still advise waiting. Only a handful of tight ends produce meaningful stats each year. The tight end you need to write down on your list as a must have is Todd Heap. He will be under-valued at your draft. He is in virtually every draft I have seen. He has the potential to be among the league's best as he occupies the void left by Shannon Sharpe in Baltimore. Baltimore has specifically designed plays to get him the ball. The Ravens also don't have much at WR. Just trust me here and get him on your roster.

Todd Heap can usually be picked up in the 10th round and has went much later in some drafts. Conservatively, I believe he will produce equivalent statistics of the 6th best TE. That puts his worth around a mid-8th round pick. If everyone in your league waits beyond the 7th round to start picking TEs, then look towards the top of the board to get good value.

Here are the TEs other than Todd Heap that I believe represent value:

  • Tony Gonzalez in the late 4th round or later.

  • Marcus Pollard in the 6th round or later.

Other than a top TE, I suggest you back up your TE with a late pick (usually last 2 rounds of the draft). This is because average TEs score so little and equal output can generally be found on the waiver wire throughout the season.

Place Kickers:

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until around round 12. Comparing our list with average drafts show no value other than Ryan Longwell. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You will get two decent ones 3 rounds after every other owner has their first. In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 12. If Vanderjagt or Wilkins are available in the 12th, just get one of them and be done with it. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers.

Beside Vanderjagt and Wilkins in the 12th, I like these kickers:

  • Jason Elam in the 13th or later.

  • Sebastian Janikowski in the 14th or later.

  • Ryan Longwell in the 14th or later.
If the kicker run gets the best of you, try this strategy: Handcuff Jose Cortez with the last pick of your draft with Chandler just to be certain you have the SF kicking game. You will likely need to cut one, but you can use the uncertainty of the current competition to have the starting kicker on a very potent offense.

Defenses:

As you look through the average draft position of the defenses, it becomes clear that only one represents value (the New England Patriots). But just like kickers, your league may draft defenses early or very late. Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

If it gets real late (after round 12) and no defenses have been drafted, just pick one of the top defenses and be done with it. If defenses are going early wait about three rounds after 11 have been picked and grab the highest one on your draft board.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Putting it all Together:

  1. Look to draft RBs in the first two rounds unless significant value exists elsewhere.


  2. QB value starts in round 4 and later, so grab another RB or good WR in round 3.

  3. Continue to draft for value looking at QB, RB and WR. in rounds 4-8

  4. Sluff TE unless Gonzo and Pollard slide too far then grab them. If you don't get them target Todd Heap for round 9 or later.

  5. Continue to add value at RB, WR and QB in the middle rounds.

  6. Sluff defense and kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first in round 12 or later.
Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list, but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.