Aaaah....The Perfect Draft. We have all dreamt of having it. Some of us have experienced it. And for those that have....we want it again and again. And why not? You surely did not buy this magazine to be average. You want to dominate. You want to have such a good roster that others salivate over who you have. You want them all to come to you when discussing trades. And in this article I am going to break down how to have that perfect draft.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD) and I will expound on them as we go through this.

ALL PLAYERS HAVE VALUE
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their value and you will build a winning team.

UNDERSTAND WHAT THE AVERAGE GUY THINKS It's this opinion that allows one to maximize draft value round after round. You may believe someone will be the 4th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait and maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you...believe rookie WRs are always bad...always avoid players after ACL injuries...avoid anyone over 30...refuse to ever draft a kicker before the last 3 rounds...always take RBs with your first two picks...on and on....then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your team. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value every single round.

So what is value then? Value Based Drafting has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. Let this be our guide. I am not going to rehash Joe Bryant's excellent article as many are familiar with it. But suffice it to say it all starts with projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200 lists. The good news is we have done that work for you in this magazine.

If you want a customized Top 200 list/cheatsheet you can go here

Let's have the perfect draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I looked for were players that we projected significantly better than where they were being drafted. For average draft position, I used a list from Antsports generated after August 1st. A few players like Michael Vick and Jimmy Smith were adjusted based on drafts that took place this weekend. To be ranked, the player or defense had to show up in at least 5 drafts. A similar list is available from Myfantasyleague.com. The positional analysis tracks to our projections which also can be found on this site.

This article assumes a 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK.

Quarterbacks:

Looking down the list of QBs shows value virtually every step of the way. Running quarterbacks (McNabb, Culpepper, Vick, Garcia, McNair, etc) have really deepened the field and made this position pretty easy to draft. In years past, the top QBs were almost always drafted too early. And this makes sense. The QB position generally scores the most points so fantasy players wanted a good one. But since most leagues only require 1 starting QB there is little pressure on the remaining QBs after the first 5-6 are gone.

So unless you can get exceptional value on the first few QBs (Culpepper, McNabb, Manning, Gannon), we generally suggest waiting because value always emerges after most everyone has their starting quarterback.

In fact, we think this is key #1 to winning your league this year. Resist the temptation and do not even think about drafting a QB until after the 6th round. Why can we say that with such conviction? Because draft after draft, we have seen the same thing happen. People overpay for the top stars and then a giant lull takes place after people get their first QB. Steve McNair, Brett Favre, Matt Hassellbeck and Trent Green can be had for pennies on the dollar for the people patient enough to let the draft develop naturally. And by avoiding the quarterback position early, you can strengthen your roster where it needs it the most (at the RB and WR positions).

I suggest you target the following QBs:

If you somehow miss out on a top-notch QB or good value in the list above, you can still have a great draft by getting multiple QBs and playing matchups each week. A good fantasy roster should have three starting QBs to protect against injuries and bye weeks.

Again, the general strategy is to wait at QB unless exceptional value presents itself early. No need to panic at this position and just let the draft come to you. There is great value to be had by waiting. Typically after 10 QBs are drafted, QBs will come off the board at about 2 per round the rest of the draft.

Running Backs:

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is their simply aren't enough of them to go around. Every owner wants 3-4 quality backs. That equates to 36-48 backs needed to adequately cover bye weeks and exploit matchups. Well folks, there are not that many running backs that will score consistently for your fantasy roster.

This is the reason many successful owners will simply take RBs with their first 2-3 picks regardless of who else is there. I am not advocating blindly taking RBs over people like Harrison, Owens and Moss. But I am suggesting you get good to great value on non-RB players if you go that direction. We rank Harrison at number 9 overall. But truth is you will likely end up with a better roster if you avoid him at pick 9 and draft the highest RB available.

Why is this you ask? Because even though you may "overpay" for a RB in the first or second round, the price for RBs generally increases significantly. With high demand and no supply, marginal backs will be drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds. You want to be ahead of the runs and grab quality even if it represents minimal value.

Here are the only non-RB players I would even consider in the first two rounds (24 picks) of a draft:

There is a good chance that none of these players will be available at these spots. That is OK, take your two RB studs and position yourself for a strong draft the rest of the way. The reason you need to get exceptional value if you don't take running backs with your first two picks is because you will likely overpay for mediocre RBs later. So getting Harrison at fair value, actually represents negative value to your squad because you will be scrambling to make the RB position work.

Besides taking quality RBs early, I also like these backs in the following rounds:

We also believe the following backups could shine if given the opportunity: Maurice Morris (Sea), Deshaun Foster (Car), Najeh Davenport (GB), Lamar Gordon (StL) and Marcell Shipp (Ari). We suggest you target none of these specifically, but look to see if any are still around after the 14/15th round. Each could represent a homerun if they get to play.

Some additional RB strategies involve traditionally strong running teams that potentially have injury risk/RBBC situations. SF with Hearst and Barlow, Arizona with Smith/Shipp, Philadelphia with Buckhalter/Westbrook, Pittsburgh with Zereoue/Bettis all represent teams that fit this pattern. This generally lowers the value of both players which can yield value (and protect against injuries) if you draft both.

Wide Receivers:

There almost always is great value at wide receiver late in a draft and this year is no exception. But you will need a few inexpensive stars for any of that late round value to be worthwhile.

As we discussed earlier, unless you get exceptional value on the big 3 wide receivers (Harrison, Owens and Moss), you should pass on these players. The one with the most value of these three is likely the one taken third as experts disagree as to the exact order on how these should be ranked. Assuming you miss the big three and draft RB in the first two rounds, here are the WRs I believe will have good to great value:

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. So in recap, get one core WR outside of the top 3 and wait for value to emerge. It always does.

Tight Ends:

Three tight ends are expected to perform like WRs this year (Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap). The big three tight ends can be an important piece to your winning team (at the right price). But unless you can get Shockey in the 4th or Heap or Gonzalez in the 5th round, I suggest you wait on tight ends (Chances are poor that you will get any of these players at this price).

It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there isn't a great deal of variance usually between the 4th best TE and the 12th best, witness:

• 2002 -- 4th (91 points), 12th (63 points) = 28 points difference (1.75 per game)


• 2001 -- 4th (93 points), 12th (75 points) = 18 points difference (1.13 per game)


• 2000 -- 4th (96 points), 12th (61 points) = 34 points difference (2.13 per game)


• 1999 -- 4th (83 points), 12th (60 points) = 23 points difference (1.44 per game)


• 1998 -- 4th (89 points), 12th (67 points) = 22 points difference (1.38 per game)



• 5 YR AVG -- 4th (90 points), 12th (65 points) = 25 points difference (1.56 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big three, you're really debating over a point or two per week; which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE.

Last year we told you to wait and get Todd Heap. This year we are targetting three must have late tight ends for your team: (Stephen Alexander, Freeddie Jones and Desmon Clark). All three of these players are in excellent situations where they should easily outperform their average draft value. Make sure you lock up two of these three.

Here are the TEs that I believe represent value late in the draft:

Because quality TEs can usually be had on the waiver wire, I suggest after you have 1 TE, you should generally just wait until the last few rounds to add a backup.

Place Kickers:

Who cares right? Well...kind of right. Definitely nothing you should even look at until around round 12. But all drafts are different. In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You will get two decent ones 3 rounds after every other owner has their first. In leagues that sluff this position until real late, look towards the top of the kicker list in round 13. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. You can generally maximize kicker value by taking the third or fourth kicker in a draft as a rule of thumb.

Defenses:

The top defenses (Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Carolina and Miami) will not represent value in most leagues this year. Just like kickers, your league may draft defenses early or very late. Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken.

If it gets real late (after round 12) and only Tampa Bay has been drafted, just pick one of the top defenses and be done with it. If defenses are going early wait about three rounds after 11 have been picked and grab the highest one on your draft board.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

A winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have 1-2 defenses meaning that almost half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking 2-3 weeks ahead at who will be playing Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas or Houston you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against sub-par competition. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, we advise you to draft but one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year 2-3 defenses are predicted to be terrible and end up playing great (Atlanta, Carolina and Indianapolis last year).

Putting it all Together:

Look to draft RBs in the first two rounds unless significant value exists elsewhere.

QB value is throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. There is no need to panic as the depth at QB is the best it has ever been. Grab extra starting QBs later in the draft.

Grab at least one quality WR (in rounds 3-5), but wait for value to emerge. It always does.

Continue to draft for value looking at QB, RB and WR. in rounds 3-8

Sluff TE unless Shockey, Gonzalez or Heap slide too far then grab them. If you don't get the Big 3 wait until after round 11 to draft your first tight end.

Sluff defense and kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first in round 12 or later.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list, but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.