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Drinen's Notebook: Thursday, November 7, 2002
Table of contents
Evaluating the cheatsheets from down the hallA few weeks ago, I devised a formula for projecting weekly RB performance. The formula is completely objective -- it's pure math. Here's what I wrote about it:
Is this model any good? Well, "good" is a relative concept. I'm sure this model alone wouldn't fare too well in a cheatsheet competition. For one thing, it has no knowledge of injuries, and it refuses to say anything about RBs who are not averaging at least 7 fantasy points per game or who haven't played in at least 4 games... . But I do believe that if you took the rankings produced by this formula and altered them only to take into account known injuries and role changes, that it would stack up very well against other cheatsheets. I could be wrong about that, but I don't think so. I should've known better than to write something like that. I've been keeping track of how this model has been doing against the official footballguys cheatsheets, and it has not stacked up very well. The first question is: given two cheatsheets, how do you decide which one did a better job? There are lots of possibilities, but the one I decided on is as follows. Given all the players ranked by my model, find all the pairs of players where my model said Player A would do better and the footballguys cheatsheet said Player B would do better. Then count up how many times the model was right and how many times the footballguys sheet was right. The results have been very similar each week: the footballguys sheet has been right about 60 percent of the time to my model's 40 percent. For example, here's the comparison from week 7:
Model said: FBG sheet said: Who was right --------------------------------------------------------- Mike Anderson Stacey Mack Drinen Warrick Dunn Mike Alstott FBG Mike Anderson Warrick Dunn Drinen Mike Anderson Mike Alstott Drinen Lamar Smith Clinton Portis FBG Lamar Smith Anthony Thomas FBG Lamar Smith Jamel White FBG Lamar Smith Jerome Bettis FBG Lamar Smith Curtis Martin FBG Michael Bennett Shaun Alexander Drinen Charlie Garner Shaun Alexander Drinen Jamal Lewis Shaun Alexander Drinen Edgerrin James Shaun Alexander Drinen Shaun Alexander Curtis Martin FBG Deuce McAllister Shaun Alexander Drinen Fred Taylor Shaun Alexander Drinen Michael Bennett Travis Henry FBG Michael Bennett Clinton Portis FBG Michael Bennett Anthony Thomas FBG Michael Bennett Curtis Martin FBG Michael Pittman Jamel White FBG Michael Pittman Jerome Bettis FBG Michael Pittman Curtis Martin FBG Emmitt Smith Kevan Barlow Drinen Thomas Jones Kevan Barlow Drinen Duce Staley Kevan Barlow Drinen Emmitt Smith Jerome Bettis FBG Emmitt Smith Curtis Martin FBG Thomas Jones Jerome Bettis FBG Thomas Jones Curtis Martin FBG Duce Staley Thomas Jones Drinen Thomas Jones James Stewart FBG Stephen Davis Clinton Portis FBG Stephen Davis Anthony Thomas FBG Stephen Davis Curtis Martin FBG Charlie Garner Ricky Williams FBG Charlie Garner Jamal Lewis FBG Charlie Garner Clinton Portis FBG Charlie Garner Anthony Thomas FBG Charlie Garner Curtis Martin FBG Charlie Garner Deuce McAllister FBG Charlie Garner Fred Taylor FBG Charlie Garner Marshall Faulk FBG Ahman Green Ricky Williams Drinen LaDainian Tomlinson Ricky Williams Drinen Priest Holmes Ricky Williams Drinen Ricky Williams Marshall Faulk FBG Jamal Lewis Curtis Martin FBG Deuce McAllister Jamal Lewis Drinen Fred Taylor Jamal Lewis Drinen Travis Henry Clinton Portis FBG Edgerrin James Travis Henry Drinen Travis Henry Anthony Thomas FBG Travis Henry Curtis Martin FBG Edgerrin James Clinton Portis ----- Clinton Portis Curtis Martin FBG Deuce McAllister Clinton Portis Drinen Fred Taylor Clinton Portis Drinen Edgerrin James Anthony Thomas FBG Edgerrin James Curtis Martin FBG Anthony Thomas Curtis Martin FBG Deuce McAllister Anthony Thomas Drinen Fred Taylor Anthony Thomas Drinen Jamel White Jerome Bettis FBG Jamel White Curtis Martin FBG Duce Staley Jerome Bettis Drinen Garrison Hearst Jerome Bettis Drinen James Stewart Jerome Bettis Drinen Duce Staley Curtis Martin Drinen Deuce McAllister Curtis Martin Drinen Garrison Hearst Curtis Martin Drinen Fred Taylor Curtis Martin Drinen James Stewart Curtis Martin Drinen Duce Staley James Stewart FBG Deuce McAllister Fred Taylor FBG Garrison Hearst James Stewart FBG Ahman Green Marshall Faulk FBG LaDainian Tomlinson Marshall Faulk FBG Priest Holmes Marshall Faulk FBG Basically, the model got it's clock cleaned on just a few guys: Curtis Martin, Lamar Smith, and Charlie Garner. And these are not guys that were question marks due to role changes or injury (well, Garner was a little dinged). Curtis Martin was and is simply a better RB than his stats at the time showed. Every human being knew that. My model didn't. Charlie Garner had been playing over his head for the first few weeks of the year. Lamar Smith was headed downhill along with the rest of the Panthers. Most fantasy footballers knew these things at the time, but my model is incapable of knowing things like that. I knew the model was going to miss on things like this. That's unavoidable. But I thought that it would be able to make up the difference by dealing more intelligently with matchups. In particular, the main thing I learned from building the model was that strength of opponent is not a very strong determining factor in projecting RB points. It's a factor, but I had a feeling most experts tend to overestimate the role it plays. Well, maybe most (or at least some) experts do, but Dodds and Bryant don't seem to. So is this model worth anything if you also have access to Joe and David's cheatsheets? Well, maybe not. But maybe. To paraphrase Smooth Jimmy Apollo, "when you're right 60 percent of the time, you're wrong 40 percent of the time." It's possible that something could be learned by investigating the cases where the two sheets disagree. It may be possible to identify certain situation where the model is more likely to be right and other situations where the FBG sheet is more likely to be right. I'm going to keep tracking it for the rest of this year at least, and see if anything turns up. If nothing else, the model can still serve as the only completely objective advice you're ever going to get in this hobby. Whether that's worth anything is up to you. With that, here are the week 10 lists:
Name OPP FPPG YPG DEF Proj -------------------------------------------------- Priest Holmes sfo 27.5 162 1 22.4 Marshall Faulk sdg 22.1 146 -3 19.6 Ahman Green det 19.4 134 5 19.3 Ricky Williams nyj 17.5 122 8 18.3 LaDainian Tomlinson ram 20.6 139 -5 18.2 Deuce McAllister car 20.1 134 -8 17.1 Charlie Garner den 17.5 123 -2 16.6 Tiki Barber min 14.7 117 1 16.2 Fred Taylor was 14.9 119 -2 16.1 Jamal Lewis cin 13.5 112 -1 15.3 James Stewart gnb 14.0 106 0 14.6 Duce Staley ind 12.4 102 3 14.6 Edgerrin James phi 12.6 108 -5 14.0 Corey Dillon bal 13.5 105 -3 13.9 Shaun Alexander ari 16.9 101 -1 13.8 Lamar Smith nor 13.5 90 2 12.7 Thomas Jones sea 9.7 80 9 12.7 Stephen Davis jax 12.8 94 -3 12.6 Michael Bennett nyg 11.8 95 -4 12.5 Eddie George hou 13.3 88 -0 12.1 Clinton Portis oak 12.4 87 0 12.1 Anthony Thomas nwe 11.0 80 2 11.5 Garrison Hearst kan 11.0 80 1 11.3 Antowain Smith chi 11.6 78 -2 10.6 Curtis Martin mia 9.6 74 -1 10.1 Kevan Barlow kan 9.9 69 1 9.7 Amos Zereoue atl 8.7 72 -2 9.6 Marcel Shipp sea 10.5 55 9 9.3 Warrick Dunn pit 10.3 66 -5 8.3 Olandis Gary oak 7.2 57 0 8.1 Moe Williams nyg 12.1 61 -4 7.9 Jerome Bettis atl 10.6 56 -2 7.5 Mike Anderson oak 7.7 51 0 7.3 T.J. Duckett pit 8.3 57 -5 7.1 Stacey Mack was 7.6 34 -2 4.5 Name OPP PYD RYD INT DEF Proj --------------------------------------------------------- Donovan McNabb ind 219 50 0.62 -3.5 21.8 Jeff Garcia kan 210 25 0.50 7.5 20.1 Michael Vick pit 156 52 0.14 -4.3 19.9 Rich Gannon den 318 10 0.88 -3.7 18.0 Tom Brady chi 274 5 1.12 5.5 17.0 Brian Griese oak 264 9 1.12 4.3 17.0 Daunte Culpepper nyg 251 27 1.75 -0.6 16.8 Mark Brunell was 202 19 0.50 -0.3 15.8 Brett Favre det 237 3 0.50 3.5 15.8 David Carr ten 173 18 1.00 7.9 15.5 Steve McNair hou 221 20 1.12 -0.1 15.5 Kerry Collins min 256 1 1.00 5.0 15.4 Trent Green sfo 233 20 1.25 -2.4 15.1 Jake Plummer sea 203 25 1.12 -2.0 14.9 Aaron Brooks car 230 20 1.12 -4.8 14.5 Jay Fiedler nyj 215 13 1.00 -3.0 13.1 Jim Miller nwe 237 2 1.00 -0.2 12.9 Rodney Peete nor 192 2 0.67 3.7 12.7 Peyton Manning phi 266 8 1.38 -6.9 12.5 Chad Pennington mia 194 5 0.57 -0.9 12.2 Shane Matthews jax 176 5 0.60 1.6 12.1 Chris Redman cin 172 1 0.50 2.2 11.6 Drew Brees ram 190 10 1.00 -2.2 11.5 Trent Dilfer ari 197 4 1.00 -2.0 10.9 Jon Kitna bal 212 5 1.40 -5.0 9.6 Tommy Maddox atl 201 1 1.17 -4.8 9.0 Kordell Stewart atl 148 14 1.25 -4.8 8.7 QBs ranked based on the following scoring system: 1 per 25, 1 per 10, 6 per any TD, -3 per INT
Where have all the stud WRs gone?According to fantasy points per game, here are the top WRs in the league so far (minimum 6 games played):
Name FPPG --------------------------- Terrell Owens 14.3 Peerless Price 13.9 Curtis Conway 13.6 Marvin Harrison 13.5 Hines Ward 13.4 Eric Moulds 12.8 Marty Booker 12.5 Joe Horn 12.1 Donald Driver 11.5 Jerry Rice 11.0 David Patten 10.4 Derrick Mason 10.3 Corey Bradford 9.8 Jimmy Smith 9.8 Quincy Morgan 9.7 Randy Moss 9.6 Jerry Porter 9.6 Plaxico Burress 9.4 James Thrash 9.3 Torry Holt 9.2 Joey Galloway 9.2 Our league leader through week 9 is Terrell Owens, with 14.3 points per game. This is, by the way, the third straight year that Owens has been the top WR through 9 weeks. Here are the leaders through 9 weeks in previous seasons:
Name Year FPPG --------------------------------- Terrell Owens 2002 14.3 Terrell Owens 2001 17.3 Terrell Owens 2000 18.4 Marvin Harrison 1999 17.9 Antonio Freeman 1998 16.4 Herman Moore 1997 13.0 Herman Moore 1996 14.9 Isaac Bruce 1995 17.0 This is shaping up as the weakest year for stud WRs since 1997, when Rob Moore finished as the league's top fantasy wideout at 1584/8. Also, check this out. There are currently 12 WRs averaging 10 or more fantasy points per game. That's the lowest such number after 9 weeks since (at least) 1995.
NUMBER OF WRs AVERAGING 10+ PPG THROUGH WEEK 9: Year Number --------------- 2002 12 2001 15 2000 15 1999 19 1998 18 1997 18 1996 16 1995 13 It's interesting that 1995 didn't have a great number of big producers at this point in the season, because 1995 ended up being the biggest year ever for WRs. I don't know if this is of any importance, but I just thought I'd point it out.
Note: no fantasy content below this point.
If the playoffs started today...I've been complaining about this for weeks now, and I want to be on record as being the first to point out this bit of injustice that the NFL will be serving up in a couple of months. If the playoffs started today, the 4-4 Tennessee Titans would be hosting the 6-2 San Diego Chargers in a playoff game. That's just not right.With the four-team divisions, it's a foregone conclusion that an 8-8 or 7-9 team will sneak into the playoffs every few years. I'm OK with that. The division setup promotes rivalries, and that's great. If I have to grit my teeth and bear an 8-8 playoff team every once in awhile because of it, that's fine. But why on earth should a crummy division winner be seeded higher than a wildcard team with a better record? Think about it. If a team wins its division at 8-8, that means it was in a really bad division. Because of that, it probably played a weak schedule. So a team that compiled a worse record against weaker competition gets seeded higher? That's just awful. It's very simple. Let the Titans in. Seed them last.
Some thoughts on Jerry RiceLast week, football fans across the country used Emmitt Smith's new rushing record as an excuse to re-open all the greatest-ever debates. Primarily, people have been discussing the all-time great RBs, but QB and WR debates have been flaring up as well.Where WRs are concerned, there usually isn't too much debate, but there still is a small segment of the football world that does not believe that Jerry Rice is the greatest WR of all time. That group separates into two subgroups:
The Hutson group has a legitimate argument. I'd vote for Rice over Hutson, but it's close, and that's for another article. What I'd like to do right now is take a look at the Montana argument. Clearly, Rice benefitted from playing with Montana and Young. No one disputes that. The question is: by how much? That's an impossible question to answer, but what we can do is look at the seasons during which Rice was working with a non-Montana/Young QB for a substantial amount of time:
So during those four seasons, during which Kemp, Moroski, Bono, Grbac, and Brohm were QBing the 49ers 41 percent of the time, Rice averaged 1470 and 13. And really only one of those seasons was during what would tyically be considered a wide receiver's prime years. Further, while I don't have game-by-game breakdowns for 1986 or 1991, I do have them for 1995 and 1996. During the 9 games where Young did not play during 95 and 96 (plus a game where he threw only one pass), Rice had 908 yards and 9 TDs. That comes out to 1453/14 over a 16-game season. So Jerry Rice, at age 33 and 34, with Elvis Grbac and Jeff Brohm at QB and Derrick Loville and Terry Kirby at RB, was putting up numbers that could arguably pass for the best season of Cris Carter's or Steve Largent's career. And then there are the Jeff Garcia and the Rich Gannon years. Rice's two worst seasons to date were the two seasons when Garcia was the 49ers primary QB. In 1999, he went for 830/5, and he posted 805/7 in 2000. But he had a good excuse: he was 37 (and 38) years old. Only two receivers in NFL history, Rice and Charlie Joiner, have caught 800 yards worth of passes at age 37 or older. Only a hanful of receivers in NFL history have caught any passes at age 37 or older. It's easy to be blinded by the standard Rice had set for himself, but apart from one Charlie Joiner season, these two disappointing seasons were the best in NFL history for a man of his age. And then he moved to Oakland and blew those seasons away. What more could he have done?
Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from football-reference.com and the disclaimer applies
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